Search Results (18)

With the aging of China’s population, the problem of pension security has become more and more prominent, and whether delayed retirement can effectively alleviate the pension fund gap and ensure the sustainability of the pension fund has become the focus of social concern. This study predicts the income and expenditure of urban workers’ basic pension insurance fund from 2021 to 2050 by constructing an actuarial model of pension insurance fund income and expenditure, and simulates the effect of delayed retirement policy. The prediction results show that under the existing system, the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will have a shortfall for the first time in 2027, and the shortfall will expand year by year. Compared with the non-implementation of delayed retirement policy, the simulation of the implementation of a delayed retirement program delayed the emergence of the fund gap until 2029, and the forecast period of the pension fund gap significantly narrowed, indicating that delayed retirement policy has a certain positive impact on alleviating the pressure of pension payments, but delayed retirement cannot completely eliminate the pension fund gap. In view of this, this paper suggests that a progressive and flexible delayed retirement policy should be introduced as soon as possible to better adapt to the needs of different groups. At the same time, differentiated policies should be formulated for different groups of people and a pension incentive mechanism for delayed retirement should be set up to improve public acceptance of delayed retirement policy. In addition, delayed retirement policy should be combined with other measures, such as lowering the corporate contribution rate and enhancing the value-added capacity of the pension fund, so as to ensure the sustainability of the pension fund. Full article

This work presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on OECD countries and the Chilean case. Utilizing a clustering approach, the research aims to investigate how countries can be categorized based on their pandemic mitigation strategies, economic responses, and infection rates. The methodology incorporates k-means and hierarchical clustering techniques, along with dynamic time warping, to account for the temporal variations in the pandemic’s progression across different nations. The study integrates the GDP into the analysis, thereby offering a perspective on the relationship between this economic indicator and health measures. Special attention is given to the case of Chile, thus providing a detailed examination of its economic and financial indicators during the pandemic. In particular, the work addresses the following main research questions: How can the OECD countries be clustered according to some health and economical indicators? What are the impacts of mitigation measures and the pension fund withdrawals on the Chilean economy? The study identifies significant differences (p-value < 0.05%) in the GDPs and infection rates between the two identified clusters that are influenced by government measures, particularly in the banking sector (55% and 60% in clusters 1 and 2, respectively). In Chile, a rebound in the IMACEC index is noted after increased liquidity, especially following partial pension fund withdrawals, thereby aligning with discrepancies between model forecasts and actual data. This study provides important insights for evidence-based public policies, thus aiding decision makers in mitigating the socioeconomic impact of global health crises and offering strategic advice for a sustainable economy. Full article

The private pension is a system designed to maintain an income level during passive periods by utilizing the income earned during active working years. It complements the mandatory retirement systems of the public sector and is based on a voluntary participation structure. Additionally, it serves as an investment and savings tool with the ability to provide long-term funds. The legislation for the private pension system was enacted in Türkiye in 2001, and it was implemented in 2003. In addition, a government contribution program was initiated to promote the system in 2013. An automatic enrollment system was introduced in 2017. The effectiveness and performance of individual pension companies play significant roles in the system. This study aims to measure the performance of individual pension companies operating in Türkiye using the gray relational analysis method, which is an effective measurement method, for the years 2016–2022. Subsequently, based on the measurement results, recommendations will be provided. Full article

This study investigates and compares the impacts of two important reforms in retirement savings—matching contribution and automatic enrollment—on participation in the individual pension system (IPS) in Turkey by using a dataset containing information about over 40 million pension contracts for the period of 2004–2021. Unlike the automatic enrollment system (AES), the state matching contribution policy imposes a burden on the state’s budget; understanding the relative effectiveness of the two policies can help protect the public budget from such burdens, especially by taking individual attitudes into account in future policy recommendations. Our estimations indicate that both reforms led to an overall increase in participation. However, the AES is not efficient at encouraging participants to make an active decision on plan characteristics, such as portfolio choices. We also evaluate the effects of the two reforms on IPS participation among different demographic groups. We find that males and married individuals are more responsive to matching contributions, and education levels seem to be closely related with IPS participation. Participants are also sensitive to both the returns of pension funds and alternative investment instruments. All the findings imply that individuals must be encouraged to recognize the need for effective financial preparation in their post-retirement lives. To accomplish this, policymakers could utilize a comprehensive informative campaign and workplace seminars about both the system as a whole and the returns, and they could improve the plan characteristics to be compatible with the needs of individuals before retirement as well as after. Full article

Faced with the need to adjust public pension systems to meet changing demographic, economic and social conditions, most developed countries have created government reserve funds to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. This paper aims to study the importance that this reserve fund plays in the sustainability of the Spanish public pension system. Using data for the 2000 to 2019 period (20 observations) on the main variables impacting on the system, we calculate probabilities and other indicators of its unsustainability in relation to the reserve fund. Our model accurately reflects certain aspects of the data, and suggests that the probability of unsustainability is inversely associated with the size of the reserve fund, but that this relation is moderated by the heterogeneity of the members of the pension system. Moreover, the probability of unsustainability increases in line with the pension system deficit, the time elapsed until unsustainability is reached is shorter when the Reserve Fund balance falls, and the size of this fund at which the system becomes unsustainable diminishes with the probability of unsustainability. Full article

We examine the future benefits of the Israeli privatized pension system, which is considered as a model of transition to funded pension systems worldwide. This research is based on an extensive database obtained from one of the largest traditional private funds in the market. The results paint a concerning picture regarding the adequacy of benefits and quality of life in old age. Israel’s radical privatized pension model signals a warning to other nations. We show that, even with high returns, most individuals cannot handle the magnitude of financial and labor risks accumulated during their career and retirement. We recommend more balanced government intervention as well as the use of risk-sharing mechanisms such as providing minimum pension guarantee and strengthening the unfunded social security pillar. Full article

A common response in public pension systems to population ageing is to link pensions to observed longevity. This creates an automatic stabiliser that arises from the valuation of a private actuarially funded system. However, no private pension plan mechanism has been articulated to adapt to this ageing in relation to the increased costs it entails. Private pension plans focus on saving for retirement; capital is accumulated to pay for it. However, perceptions of health status change over time and, as retirement age approaches, concerns about long-term care (LTC) increase. Moreover, there is not enough time to plan for it sufficiently in advance. This paper proposes to incorporate a mechanism to add an allowance to the financial pension (retirement, disability, rotation) to cover LTC within a private defined benefit pension plan, in the case of a pensioner becoming dependent. Depending on a pensioner’s health status, both the expected number of payments and their intensity are transformed. For this purpose, a mechanism is defined (through Markov chains) to adapt the amount of LTC support to a beneficiary’s health-related life expectancy. The study’s main contribution is that it establishes a private pension plan model that offers to incorporate dependency aid through this mechanism into the economic pensions without increasing the total cost of the plan. It adapts to life expectancy according to a person’s state (healthy, disabled, dependent). Full article

A “silver economy” can drive economic growth. The key condition is effective demand, determined by the number of financially secure members of the elderly population. The aim of this study is to assess the conditions of the Russian “silver economy”, identify the constraints on its growth, and develop recommendations for their elimination to achieve Sustainable Development Goals. We applied multivariate statistical analysis methods. The absolute and structural numbers of elderly people in Russia were found to not differ much from those in the developed countries of Europe. Their financial support exhibits several important features. A state pension plays a key role in financing the needs of Russian pensioners. Income from labor occupies the second position. Asset-based reallocations are negligible. Public programs will improve the standard of living of current pensioners. For future pensioners, it is important to increase the income received from asset-based reallocations. Russian pensioners were found to have had a negative experience of participation in the funded pension system. It is necessary to stimulate the voluntary participation of future pensioners in the funded pension system and to change the regulation of the investment activities of pension managers. In general, the formation of conditions favorable to the “silver economy” may turn it into a driver of sustainable development in Russia. Full article

The broadly used pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system is intrinsically wrong. The essence of the problem is that the PAYG system distributes the yield of raising children, i.e., of human capital investment (which is essentially the pension contribution), in such a way that it disregards the extent to which individuals have contributed to this, and even whether it has occurred at all. This error can be corrected if we take the pension contribution to be the yield on an investment of human capital, and as such use this to pay back the costs and expenses of the raising of the contribution payer—overall to those who paid these costs and expenses at the time. Accordingly, the central question of my study is whether it is possible to construct a consistent pension system based on the above foundations, and how my ideas may be inserted into the Diamond–Samuelson model. The method of the study was logical analysis and the construction of a theoretical mathematical model. The results of the study show that it is possible to construct a public pension system that operates according to a different logic than today’s system, a system which is free from the effects of demographic fluctuations, which does not motivate the refusal to have children, and which will remain self-sufficient under all circumstances. The study achieves this by presenting a possible pension system of this kind in detail. Via the suitable modification of the Diamond–Samuelson model, I have succeeded in showing that the pension system I am proposing increases the willingness to have children up to the social optimum, in contrast to the fully (but traditionally) funded and PAYG systems. This system currently only exists in theory and may be regarded as a major theoretical innovation, which naturally has certain (although not particularly extensive) antecedents. Its introduction could enable the resolution of the contradictions of existing pension systems and could also provide a solution to the as yet unsolved problem of the increasingly expensive regeneration of human capital, and as such, its potential practical implications are immeasurable. Full article

Long-term care coverage is not integrated into an individual’s retirement strategy. It is an additional public health service that is not considered into private pension funds. Nevertheless, this coverage is not sufficient due to the problems of financial sustainability of the public pension systems. However, there are large sums in pension plans dedicated to paying retirement pensions that can be transformed into support for long-term care coverage. This paper develops a mechanism of pension transformation through the different mortality of the beneficiary when becoming a dependent beneficiary. This mechanism allows the beneficiary to convert their pension to LTC support at their own choice, without increasing the cost of the private pension scheme. The proposed model provides consistency in the pension that a retiree receives and adapts it to a retiree’s life expectancy: the retiree receives a higher pension when he/she needs it most. Full article

Are public pension funds taking sustainability values into serious consideration? This question is addressed by analyzing annual reports of The Council on Ethics in the Swedish public pension system, which has a clear mission from The Swedish Government to consider sustainability values. The council was established in 2007 and supports four funds with advice. This article studies empirically how the council’s expression of words connected to different values has changed over time as well as how it practically reasons in situations of value conflicts. The quantitative data shows that words indicative of “sustainability values” have considerably increased. As a contrast, the critical discourse analysis shows that the council often reasons in a general, loose way about preferable solutions, while more practical claims for action are largely lacking or are vague in relation to sustainable development. The underlying rationale is very much in line with the discourse of economic rationalism. Thus, the quantitative findings suggest an emerging sustainability discourse, while the qualitative analysis clearly indicates that an economic rationale continues to underpin the council’s practical reasoning. However, it is concluded that this is not a simple case of green washing documents but rather a slow train moving towards green institutional change. Full article

This paper uses an actuarial model to evaluate the effect of poverty alleviation policy on the sustainability of China’s basic pension funding for urban and rural residents (BPFUUR). Because of the poverty alleviation policy, China’s basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents (BEIURR) has been given the responsibility of helping the poor through insurance and by increasing the income of the elderly. On the basis of summarizing the current situation of BEIURR, this paper simulated and predicted the impact of poverty alleviation policy on the short term (2020–2025) and medium term (2025–2050) sustainability of China’s BPFUUR. The results show that: (1) The sustainability of the fund will inevitably face challenges; (2) The per capita contribution level will be at a low level for a long time; (3) The birth tide brought by the two-child policy has a positive impact on the medium-term sustainability of the fund; (4) Poverty eradication mainly affects the short-term current deficit, but not the medium-term accumulated deficit; (5) The higher the payment, the better the sustainability of the funding in the short and medium term. According to the above results, this paper puts forward some countermeasures, such as insisting on family planning, optimizing the adjustment system for basic pension funds, and improving the treatment of basic pensions. Full article

The lack of long-term financing, the low rate of return, the existence of various risks, and the lack of capacity of market players are major challenges for the development of green energy projects. This paper aimed to highlight the challenges of green financing and investment in renewable energy projects and to provide practical solutions for filling the green financing gap. Practical solutions include increasing the role of public financial institutions and non-banking financial institutions (pension funds and insurance companies) in long-term green investments, utilizing the spillover tax to increase the rate of return of green projects, developing green credit guarantee schemes to reduce the credit risk, establishing community-based trust funds, and addressing green investment risks via financial and policy de-risking. The paper also provides a practical example of the implementation of the proposed tools. Full article

In this study, we explore the stock market’s response to new information that a firm has been included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) in Korea. In addition, we investigate which investor group contributes to the changes, if any significant increase in returns is found, after a firm’s incorporation into the DJSI. This study aims to identify which investors value corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the Korean stock market and examine whether the government-led campaigns for CSR have affected private sector investors, as well as those from the public sector. We find statistically significant abnormal returns for firms after their first listing in the index, implying that investors in Korean markets consider a firm’s inclusion in the DJSI as good news for the firm value. Using a unique dataset from the Korea Exchange (KRX) on investors, we classify investors into four groups: individual investors, public pension funds, other institutional investors, and foreign investors. Unlike prior studies that focus only on the existence of abnormal returns, we investigate the trading behavior of each investor group for such announcements. We find that it is mainly the buying pressure of public pension funds that generates abnormal returns. By contrast, we cannot find statistically significant results for the other investor groups. This result implies that the government-led campaign for CSR has only had limited effects in the Korean stock market, and that awareness of CSR in the private sector should be improved. Full article

In the present work, we test the mean-variance efficiency that Mexican public pension funds would have shown had these invested their local equity portfolio component only in socially responsible stocks. With a daily simulation (from 1 January 2005 to 31 July 2018) of the Standard & Poors (S&P) Mexico target risk indices, we found that there was no significant difference between the more conservative pension funds that invested only in the Price Index and Quotations (IPC) sustainable index against the ones that invested in the conventional IPC. In the case of the more aggressive type of pension funds (those with a higher Mexican equity investment level), a lower mean-variance efficiency would have been observed had these invested in the IPC sustainable index. We also found, with a two-regime Markov-switching analysis, that socially responsible investment would have been better for most of these pension funds during distress time periods. Even if our results do not give strong short-term proof for the use of a socially responsible investment strategy in the most aggressive pension funds, we found that the benefits will be observed in the long-term, due to a better performance during distress time periods and the lag effect of mid and small-cap stocks in the performance. Full article