Search Results (104)

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a systematic risk assessment tool that effectively evaluates the safety and reliability of products prior to their deployment. However, traditional FMEA fails to consider and leverage inherent system-specific information during risk assessment, while also neglecting the weights of risk factors (RFs) when processing data related to the Risk Priority Number (RPN). This leads to significant subjectivity in the final risk ranking of failure modes. To overcome these drawbacks, this study proposes an improved FMEA risk assessment method based on load sharing, aiming to develop an improved FMEA method that addresses the critical limitations of traditional approaches by integrating load sharing principles and systematic weight determination, thereby enhancing risk assessment objectivity and accuracy in complex multi-component systems. First, probabilistic linguistic terms are adopted to quantify experts’ risk assessment information, and the geometric mean method is then used to aggregate assessments from multiple experts. Second, the Fuzzy Best–Worst Method (FBWM) is employed to determine the relative weights of the three RPN factors (Occurrence, Severity, and Detection). Additionally, partial system structural data are obtained through load sharing, and these data—combined with the calculated factor weights—are integrated into the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to generate the final risk ranking of failure modes. Finally, a case study of a magnetic crane is conducted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, supplemented by comparative experiments to demonstrate its superiority. Full article

Reliable schedule-risk estimation in hybrid software development lifecycles is strategically important for organizations adopting AI in software engineering. This study addresses that need by transforming routine process telemetry (CI/CD, SAST, traceability) into explainable, quantitative predictions of completion time and rework. This paper introduces an integrated probabilistic model of the hybrid software development lifecycle that combines Generalized Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) network semantics with I-AND synchronization, explicit artificial-intelligence (AI) interventions, and a fuzzy treatment of epistemic uncertainty. The model embeds two controllable AI nodes–an AI Requirements Assistant and AI-augmented static code analysis, directly into the process topology and applies an analytical reduction to a W-function to obtain iteration-time distributions and release-success probabilities without resorting solely to simulation. Epistemic uncertainty on critical arcs is represented by fuzzy intervals and propagated via Zadeh’s extension principle, while aleatory variability is captured through stochastic branching. Parameter calibration relies on process telemetry (requirements traceability, static-analysis signals, continuous integration/continuous delivery, CI/CD, and history). A validation case (“system design → UX prototyping → implementation → quality assurance → deployment”) demonstrates practical use: large samples of process trajectories are generated under identical initial conditions and fixed random seeds, and kernel density estimation with Silverman’s bandwidth is applied to normalized histograms of continuous outcomes. Results indicate earlier defect detection, fewer late rework loops, thinner right tails of global duration, and an approximately threefold reduction in the expected number of rework cycles when AI is enabled. The framework yields interpretable, scenario-ready metrics for tuning quality-gate policies and automation levels in Agile/DevOps settings. Full article

This study proposes a novel sensorless maximum power capture control strategy for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems employing a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). The proposed method integrates a fuzzy probabilistic neural network (FPNN) with an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm to enable adaptive learning capabilities. Additionally, support vector regression (SVR) is employed to estimate wind speed without the use of mechanical sensors, thereby enhancing system reliability and reducing maintenance requirements. A vanadium redox battery (VRB) is integrated to enhance power stability under fluctuating wind conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed FPNN-IPSO-based controller achieves superior performance compared to conventional Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy and proportional–integral (PI) controllers. Specifically, the FPNN-IPSO controller exhibits notable improvements in average power output, tracking accuracy, and overall system efficiency. The proposed method increases power output by 9.71% over the PI controller and supports Plug-and-Play operation, making it suitable for intelligent microgrid integration. This work demonstrates an effective approach for intelligent, sensorless MPC control in hybrid wind–battery microgrids. Full article

Arid regions in Central Asia face persistent and increasing water scarcity, with groundwater serving as the primary source for drinking water, irrigation, and industry. The effective exploration and management of groundwater resources are critical, but are constrained by limited monitoring infrastructure and complex hydrogeological settings. This study investigates the Akbakay aquifer, a representative area within Central Asia with challenging hydrogeological conditions, to delineate potential zones for fresh groundwater exploration. A multi-criteria decision analysis was conducted by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), supported by remote sensing datasets. To address the subjectivity of weight assignment, the AHP results were further validated using Monte Carlo simulations and fuzzy logic aggregation (Fuzzy Gamma). The integrated approach revealed stable high-suitability groundwater zones that consistently stand out across deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy assessments, thereby improving the reliability of the groundwater potential mapping. The findings demonstrate the applicability of combined AHP–GIS methods enhanced with uncertainty analysis for sustainable groundwater resource management in data-scarce arid regions of Central Asia. Full article

Terminal forensics in large mobile networks is a vital activity for identifying compromised devices and analyzing malicious actions. In contrast, the study described here begins with the domain of terminal forensics as the primary focus, rather than the threat itself. This paper proposes a new multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model that integrates complex picture fuzzy sets (CPFS) with the combinative distance-based assessment (CODAS), referred to throughout as complex picture fuzzy CODAS (CPF-CODAS). The aim is to assist in forensic analysis for detecting mobile botnet command and control (C&C) systems. The CPF-CODAS model accounts for the uncertainty, hesitation, and complex numerical values involved in expert decision-making, using degrees of membership as positive, neutral, and negative values. An illustrative forensic case study is constructed where three mobile devices are evaluated by three cybersecurity professionals based on six key parameters related to botnet activity. The results demonstrate that the model can effectively distinguish suspicious devices and support the use of the CPF-CODAS approach in terminal forensics of mobile networks. The robustness, symmetry, and advantages of this model over existing MCDM methods are confirmed through sensitivity and comparison analyses. In conclusion, this paper introduces a novel probabilistic decision-support tool that digital forensic specialists can incorporate into their workflow to proactively identify and prevent actions of mobile botnet C&C servers. Full article

Background: Cities worldwide face continuous challenges in sustainable development, particularly in transportation systems where decisions have long-lasting impacts on urban infrastructure and quality of life. The evaluation of sustainable transportation alternatives requires careful consideration of multiple indicators, making it a complex multi-criteria decision-making process. Existing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) frameworks often overlook the dual uncertainties introduced by both fuzzy expert judgments and probabilistic performance measures, hindering robust evaluation of transportation alternatives in developing countries. Methods: In response, this study introduces a novel hybrid methodology combining fuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate transportation alternatives through 14 comprehensive sustainability indicators. Addressing the critical need for sustainable public transportation assessment in rapidly urbanizing developing countries, where existing assessment frameworks frequently prove inadequate, we present a case study from Amman, Jordan. Results: The results reveal that a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system outperforms both conventional automobiles and small buses in 87.06% of simulation scenarios, underscoring its robust sustainability profile. The sensitivity analysis highlights that a BRT system is highly robust, with minimal sensitivity to changes in most criteria and strong responsiveness to critical factors such as land usage. Conclusions: This research provides decision-makers with a comprehensive, evidence-based tool for evaluating public transport investment under uncertainty. The methodology’s ability to account for multiple stakeholder perspectives while handling uncertainty makes it particularly valuable for urban planners and policymakers facing complex transportation infrastructure decisions in rapidly evolving urban environments. Full article

This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting the tire–road friction coefficient in real-time under challenging climatic conditions based on a fuzzy logic inference system. The core innovation of the proposed approach lies in the integration and probabilistic weighting of a diverse set of input data, which includes signals from ambient temperature and precipitation intensity sensors, activation events of the anti-lock braking system (ABS) and electronic stability control (ESP), windshield wiper operation modes, and road marking recognition via a front-facing camera. This multi-sensor data fusion strategy significantly enhances prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods that rely on limited data sources (e.g., temperature and precipitation alone), especially in transient or non-uniform road conditions such as compacted snow or shortly after rainfall. The reliability of the fuzzy-logic-based predictor was experimentally validated through extensive road tests on dry asphalt, wet asphalt, and wet basalt (simulating packed snow). The results demonstrate a high degree of convergence between predicted and actual values, with a maximum modeling error of less than 10% across all tested scenarios. The developed methodology provides a robust and adaptive solution for enhancing the performance of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADASs), particularly Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB), by enabling more accurate braking distance calculations. Full article

In this work, we propose a novel quantum-informed epistemic framework that extends the classical notion of probability by integrating plausibility, credibility, and possibility as distinct yet complementary measures of uncertainty. This enriched quadruple (P, Pl, Cr, Ps) enables a deeper characterization of quantum systems and decision-making processes under partial, noisy, or ambiguous information. Our formalism generalizes the Born rule within a multi-valued logic structure, linking Positive Operator-Valued Measures (POVMs) with data-driven plausibility estimators, agent-based credibility priors, and fuzzy-theoretic possibility functions. We develop a hybrid classical–quantum inference engine that computes a vectorial aggregation of the quadruples, enhancing robustness and semantic expressivity in contexts where classical probability fails to capture non-Kolmogorovian phenomena such as entanglement, contextuality, or decoherence. The approach is validated through three real-world application domains—quantum cybersecurity, quantum AI, and financial computing—where the proposed model outperforms standard probabilistic reasoning in terms of accuracy, resilience to noise, interpretability, and decision stability. Comparative analysis against QBism, Dempster–Shafer, and fuzzy quantum logic further demonstrates the uniqueness of architecture in both operational semantics and practical outcomes. This contribution lays the groundwork for a new theory of epistemic quantum computing capable of modelling and acting under uncertainty beyond traditional paradigms. Full article

To enhance the safety risk management and control capabilities for TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) construction in hydraulic tunnels, this study conducts a correlation analysis and dynamic evolution study of safety risks. Data were collected through multiple channels, including a literature review, on-site records, and expert interviews. Grounded theory was employed for three-level coding to initially identify risk factors, and gray relational analysis was used for indicator optimization, ultimately establishing a safety risk system comprising 5 categories and 21 indicators. A multi-level hierarchical structure of risk correlation was established using fuzzy DEMATEL and ISM, which was then mapped into a Bayesian network (BN). The degree of correlation was quantified based on probabilistic information, leading to the construction of a risk correlation analysis model based on fuzzy DEMATEL–ISM–BN. Furthermore, considering the risk correlations, a safety risk evolution model for TBM construction in hydraulic tunnels was developed based on system dynamics. The validity of the model was verified using the AY project as a case study. The results indicate that the safety risk correlation structure for TBM construction in hydraulic tunnels consists of 7 levels, with the closest correlation found between “inadequate management systems” and “failure to implement safety training and technical disclosure”. As the number of interacting risk factors increases, the trend of risk level evolution also rises, with the interrelations within the management subsystem being the key targets for prevention and control. The most sensitive factors within each subsystem were further identified as adverse geological conditions, improper construction parameter settings, inappropriate equipment selection and configuration, weak safety awareness, and inadequate management systems. The control measures proposed based on these findings can provide a basis for project risk prevention and control. The main limitations of this study are that some probability parameters rely on expert experience, which could be optimized in the future by incorporating more actual monitoring data. Additionally, the applicability of the established model under extreme geological conditions requires further verification. Full article

In urban underground construction, Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) tunneling faces complex geological uncertainties and dynamic operational risks. Traditional safety management approaches often struggle under such conditions. This paper proposes an integrated safety resilience assessment framework for EPB tunneling that combines an entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), and an extension cloud model to capture interdependencies and uncertainties. A hierarchical indicator system with four primary dimensions (stability, redundancy, efficiency, and fitness) is constructed. The entropy-TOPSIS algorithm provides objective initial weights and scenario ranking, while ANP models the feedback relationships among criteria. The extension cloud model quantifies fuzziness in expert judgments and converts qualitative assessments into probabilistic resilience ratings. The methodology is applied to a case study of the EPB shield tunnel section of Jinan Metro Line 6 (China). The section’s resilience is classified as a medium level, which agrees with expert evaluation. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach yields accurate and robust safety resilience evaluations, supporting data-driven decision-making. This framework offers a quantitative tool for resilience-based safety management of shield tunneling projects, providing guidance for shifting from traditional risk control toward a resilience-enhancement strategy. Full article

Clustering techniques significantly enhance recommender systems by improving predictive accuracy and interpretability, particularly in sparse, high-dimensional datasets. This research presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of traditional clustering methods such as K-means and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) against advanced probabilistic clustering methodologies based on Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), focusing specifically on Bayesian NMF. Experiments conducted using the widely recognized MovieLens 1M dataset reveal Bayesian NMF’s superior performance in terms of predictive accuracy, intra-cluster cohesion, and interpretability compared to classical methods. The study systematically evaluates the influence of key parameters such as overlap ($\alpha$) and evidence threshold ($\beta$) in Bayesian NMF, demonstrating that careful parameter tuning substantially improves recommendation quality. The results highlight the inherent trade-off between cluster cohesion and predictive accuracy, emphasizing the flexibility and robustness of probabilistic approaches in accurately modeling user preferences and behaviors. The paper concludes by proposing future directions, including the exploration of hybrid clustering methods, dynamic adaptation to evolving user preferences, and integration of contextual information, thereby fostering continued advances in personalized-recommendation research. Full article

This systematic review examines the methodologies and applications of integrated risk indicators in positron emission tomography (PET) radiopharmaceutical production, focusing on occupational, technological, and environmental risks. Conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines and utilizing the Ryyan software 2023 for article screening, the review synthesizes findings from 70 studies published between 2020 and 2025 in English and Spanish, including articles, conference papers, and reviews. The review was registered on PROSPERO (CRD420251078221). Key disciplines contributing to risk assessment frameworks include environmental science, occupational health and safety, civil engineering, mining engineering, maritime safety, financial/economic risk, and systems engineering. Predominant risk assessment methods identified are probabilistic modeling (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations), machine learning (e.g., neural networks), multi-criteria decision-making (e.g., AHP and TOPSIS), and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), each offering strengths, such as uncertainty quantification and systematic hazard identification, alongside limitations like data dependency and subjectivity. The review explores how frameworks from other industries can be adapted to address PET-specific risks, such as radiation exposure to workers, equipment failure, and waste management, and how studies integrate these factors into unified risk indicators using weighted scoring, probabilistic methods, and fuzzy logic. Gaps in the literature include limited stakeholder engagement, lack of standardized frameworks, insufficient real-time monitoring, and under-represented environmental risks. Future research directions propose developing PET-specific tools, integrating AI and IoT for real-time data, establishing standardized frameworks, and expanding environmental assessments to enhance risk management in PET radiopharmaceutical production. This review highlights the interdisciplinary nature of risk assessment and the critical need for comprehensive, tailored approaches to ensure safety and sustainability in this field. Full article

We investigate the stability of linear discrete-time control systems with a fuzzy logic feedback under sporadic sensor data loss. In our framework, each state measurement is a fuzzy number, and occasional “packet dropouts” are modeled by a lacunary subsequence of missing readings. We introduce a novel mathematical approach using lacunary statistical convergence in fuzzy paranormed spaces to analyze such systems. Specifically, we treat the sequence of fuzzy measurements as a double sequence (indexed by time and state component) and consider an admissible ideal of “negligible” index sets that includes the missing–data pattern. Using the concept of ideal fuzzy—paranorm convergence (I-fp convergence), we formalize a lacunary statistical consistency condition on the fuzzy measurements. We prove that if the closed-loop matrix $A-BK$ is Schur stable (i.e., $\parallel A-BK\parallel <1$) in the absence of dropouts, then under the lacunary statistical consistency condition, the controlled system is practically stable despite intermittent measurement losses. In other words, for any desired tolerance, the state eventually remains within that bound (though not necessarily converging to zero). Our result yields an explicit, non-probabilistic (distribution-free) analytical criterion for robustness to sensor dropouts, without requiring packet-loss probabilities or Markov transition parameters. This work merges abstract convergence theory with control application: it extends statistical and ideal convergence to double sequences in fuzzy normed spaces and applies it to ensure stability of a networked fuzzy control system. Full article

In today’s dynamic and highly uncertain environment, organizations, particularly in the aviation sector, face increasing challenges that demand resilient, flexible, and data-driven change management decisions. Responding to the growing need for structured approaches to managing complex uncertainties—geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, social shifts, rapid technological advancements, environmental pressures and regulatory changes—this research proposes a theoretical change management model for aviation service providers, such as airports. Integrating three analytical approaches, the model offers a robust, multi-method approach for supporting sustainable transformation under uncertainty. Normative analysis using Bayesian decision theory identifies influential external environmental factors, capturing probabilistic relationships, and revealing causal links under uncertainty. Prescriptive planning through scenario theory explores alternative future pathways and helps to identify possible predictions, offer descriptive evaluation employing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and assess decision quality under vagueness and complexity. The proposed four-stage model—observation, analysis, evaluation, and response—offers a methodology for continuous external environment monitoring, scenario development, and data-driven, proactive change management decision-making, including the impact assessment of change and development. The proposed model contributes to the theoretical advancement of the change management research area under uncertainty and offers practical guidance for aviation organizations (airports) facing a volatile external environment. This framework strengthens aviation organizations’ ability to anticipate, evaluate, and adapt to multifaceted external changes, supporting operational flexibility and adaptability and contributing to the sustainable development of aviation services. Supporting aviation organizations with tools to proactively manage systemic uncertainty, this research directly supports the integration of sustainability principles, such as resilience and adaptability, for long-term value creation through change management decision-making. Full article

Background: Preeclampsia remains a leading cause of maternal morbidity worldwide. There is a critical need for predictive systems that not only perform accurately but also provide interpretable insights for clinical decision-making. This work introduces SK-MOEFS, an explainable framework based on fuzzy logic and multi-objective evolutionary optimization, designed to classify preeclampsia risk while generating clinically interpretable rules. Methods: The model integrates fuzzy decision trees with a genetic algorithm to identify a compact and relevant set of rules, optimized for both accuracy and interpretability. The system was trained and evaluated on third-trimester pregnancy data from a publicly available, multi-ethnic cohort comprising 574 individuals. All processes, including preprocessing, training, and evaluation, were conducted using open-source tools, ensuring reproducibility. Results: SK-MOEFS achieved 91% classification accuracy, an AUC of 0.89, and a recall of 0.88—outperforming other standard interpretable models while maintaining high transparency. The model emphasizes minimizing false negatives, which is critical in clinical risk stratification for preeclampsia. Conclusions: Beyond predictive performance, SK-MOEFS offers a rule translation and defuzzification layer that outputs probabilistic interpretations in natural language, enhancing its suitability for clinical use. This framework provides an effective bridge between algorithmic inference and human clinical judgment, supporting transparent and reliable decision-making in maternal care. Full article