Search Results (11)

The global economy frequently experiences cycles of rapid growth followed by abrupt crashes, challenging economists and analysts in forecasting and risk management. Crashes like the dot-com bubble crash and the 2008 global financial crisis caused huge disruptions to the world economy. These crashes have been found to display somewhat similar characteristics, like rapid price inflation and speculation, followed by collapse. In search of these underlying patterns, the Log-Periodic Power-Law (LPPL) model has emerged as a promising framework, capable of capturing self-reinforcing dynamics and log-periodic oscillations. However, while log-periodic structures have been tested in developed and stable markets, they lack validation in volatile and developing markets. This study investigates the applicability of the LPPL framework for modeling financial crashes in the Brazilian stock market, which serves as a representative case of a volatile market, particularly through the Bovespa Index (IBOVESPA). In this study, daily data spanning 1993 to 2025 is analyzed to model pre-crash oscillations and speculative bubbles for five major market crashes. In addition to the traditional LPPL model, autoregressive residual analysis is incorporated to account for market noise and improve predictive accuracy. The results demonstrate that the enhanced LPPL model effectively captures pre-crash oscillations and critical transitions, with low error metrics. Eigenstructure analysis of the Hessian matrices highlights stiff and sloppy parameters, emphasizing the pivotal role of critical time and frequency parameters. Overall, these findings validate LPPL-based nonlinear modeling as an effective approach for anticipating speculative bubbles and crash dynamics in complex financial systems. Full article

The coral reefs in the Philippines are facing an unprecedented crisis. This study, based on a comprehensive analysis of marine heatwaves (MHWs), degree heating weeks (DHWs), and ocean acidification (OA) indices derived from satellite observations and reanalysis data, reveals how thermal stress and OA have progressively eroded coral ecosystems from 1985 to 2022. This study analyzed 12 critical coral habitats adjacent to the Philippines. The monthly average sea surface temperature (SST) in the study area ranged from 26.6 °C to 29.3 °C. The coast of Lingayen Gulf was identified as the most vulnerable coral reef site in the Philippines, followed by Davao Oriental and Polillo Island. The coast of Lingayen Gulf recorded the highest total MHW days in 2022, amounting to 293 days. The coast of Lingayen Gulf also reached the highest DHW values in July and August 2022, with 8.94 °C weeks, while Davao Oriental experienced the most extended average duration of MHWs in 2020, lasting 90.5 days per event. Large-scale climate features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) significantly influenced the study area’s SST anomalies and MHW events. High-risk coral bleaching periods, such as 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010, were characterized by transitions from El Niño and positive PDO phases, to La Niña and negative PDO phases. However, since 2015, global warming has led to high cumulative heat stress without specific climate background patterns. We propose a Coral Marine Environmental Vulnerability Index (CoralVI) to integrate the spatiotemporal dynamics of warming and acidification and their impacts on coral habitats. The data show a rapid increase in the marine environmental vulnerability of coral habitats in the Philippines in recent years, extending to almost the entire coastline, posing significant threats to coral survival. Full article

IPCC climate forecast models, applicable to the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia), predict a decrease in atmospheric precipitation, greater variability, and an increase in aridity. In recent years, the entire region has been experiencing unprecedented climate upheavals. Climatic droughts have become increasingly severe and recurrent (drastically reducing water stocks). We are also witnessing a remarkable increase in temperatures and a greater frequency of heat waves. Faced with these new provisions, this territory (long considered an area of water stress) is now subject to very strong tensions, which have led to a greater demand for water and a decrease in supply. To understand the intensity of this “climate–water” crisis, we propose an analysis of this priority issue based on the evolution of precipitation over more than half a century of records. To determine precipitation trends and define rainfall cycles in these three countries, the graphical chronological method of information processing (MGCTI) of the “BERTIN Matrix” type is used. Annual precipitation totals from 29 stations were used for the MGCTI (chronological graphic method of information processing) for the period 1970–2023. These data come from the national meteorological networks of the National Meteorological Office (ONM) for Algeria, National Institute of Meteorology (NIM) for Tunisia, and National Directorate of Meteorology (DMN) for Morocco, and the from the websites of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and “TuTiempo Network”. Monthly pluviometric totals from three stations, Dar El Beida (Algeria), Casablanca (Morocco), and Tunis (Tunisia), as well as the monthly NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index) were used for the wavelet coherence method for the period 1970–2022. Data analysis shows that the entire region is subject to four extreme precipitation cycles (dry and wet). The last dry period was remarkably intense and led to a sharp increase in water stress throughout the region. An analysis of monthly precipitation from three stations (Casablanca, Dar El Beida, and Tunis) using the wavelet coherence method also highlighted a close relationship with the “NAO” and “MOI” circulation. Full article

With the intensification of the oil crisis, research on drag reduction technologies has gained increasing momentum. In tidal environments, the drag reduction effectiveness of conventional methods, such as bionic non-smooth surfaces, super-hydrophobic surfaces, biomimetic jet flow, wall surface vibration, etc., will be severely diminished. To enhance the adaptability of vehicles in variable fluid environments, this study explores the feasibility of adjusting the drag of a vehicle through active head swing variants. The flexible oscillation of the head of the vehicle was achieved by combining dynamic mesh technology with User-Defined Functions (UDFs). The oscillation process was numerically simulated using Fluent software. The results show that, when the vehicle maintains a stationary posture, biasing the vehicle’s head towards the incoming flow direction can effectively reduce the radial drag and drag moment, thereby improving the stability of the vehicle. Conversely, both the radial drag and the drag moment significantly increase. This condition can be utilized for the auxiliary turning of the vehicle. When the vehicle undergoes continuous periodic oscillation of its head, the drag characteristics are optimal with the sine oscillation mode. By adjusting the range of the head’s oscillation angle, it can further minimize the average radial drag during the head swing process, making it possible to achieve radial drag reduction and enhance the vehicle’s stability through head oscillation. This research significantly improves the stability of the vehicle in tidal environments, making it adaptable to the highly variable underwater flow conditions. Full article

In order to develop green energy, reduce carbon emissions, and alleviate global warming and the green energy crisis, many researchers focus on wave energy, using a device to convert wave energy into electricity. The three main types of wave energy converters are the overtopping type, the oscillating water column type, and the oscillating body type, and for most of them, the power generation efficiency is low. The research team in this paper proposed a wave energy converter for a wave-induced oscillation heave plate. The plate vibrates up and down under the action of waves, and the captured energy of the vibrating plate transfers the energy to the generator, so as to generate electricity. There is electricity only when there is vibration; therefore, the vibration characteristic of the converter is crucial to power generation. So, the vibration characteristics of the energy capture structure of the converter were studied experimentally. The test results show that the energy harvesting device can vibrate, and the vibration effect is good, which further indicates that the device can generate electricity. The effects of different wave conditions and system stiffnesses on amplitude and corresponding amplitude were studied, and the amplitude increases with the increase in wave height and period and decreases with the increase in system stiffness. The amplitude response decreases with the increase in wave height and system stiffness. Under the test conditions, the maximum amplitude of the system is 6.23 cm (when the wave period is 1.40 s, the wave height is 0.25 m, and the system stiffness is 1735.62 N/m), and the maximum amplitude ratio is 0.34 (when the wave period is 1.1 s, the wave height is 0.10 m, and the system stiffness is 1735.62 N/m). Full article

The study provides an intuitive investigation into the disposition effect within frontier markets such as Bangladesh, particularly focusing on its behavior during various market conditions. The study’s novelty lies in its application of a methodological framework of the disposition effect measure of Weber and Camerer, aiming to understand the disposition effect through different market conditions. Dow Theory is applied to disparate bullish and bearish intermediate periods. Disposition effects persist for the entire study period, as well as the different market conditions except for the bearish Bangladesh equity market. The bullish and crisis markets exhibit a rather high disposition effect due to their respective market volatility. Stronger disposition effects are more pronounced for a crisis market in relation to a bullish market. In addition, the disposition effect in Bangladesh’s equity market oscillates in crisis periods. The documentation of the disposition effect in the Bangladesh equity market across market conditions suggests that investors’ psychology plays a crucial role in their decision processes. Individuals and professional investors should carefully design an appropriate strategy to control their decision-making process since the presence of disposition effects may impair the risk-return payoffs. Full article

The vegetation drought phenomenon will reduce the amount of water available to the vegetation system, change the ecological and hydrological cycles of plants, and affect the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem in various forms. Therefore, research on the dynamic variation and driving mechanism of vegetation drought will help us recognize and predict the response of vegetation under drought stress conditions, implement appropriate policy measures to deal with the drought crisis, and provide technical support for implementing vegetation protection and alleviating the increasing risk of vegetation drought. However, the dynamic variation of vegetation drought and its dynamic propagation mechanism are still undefined across China. In this study, the spatio-temporal evolutions and pixel-scaled trends of vegetation drought were analyzed during the period between 1999 and 2020. Additionally, the propagation features were investigated between vegetation drought and meteorological drought. Finally, the relationships between vegetation drought and atmospheric teleconnection were explicitly clarified using multivariate cross wavelet transform technology. The results highlighted five key findings: (1) the vegetation drought presented an overall decreasing trend across China in 1999–2020; (2) the most serious vegetation drought occurred in the year 2000, with the average vegetation condition index (VCI) values ranging from 0.36 to 0.46; (3) vegetation droughts were alleviating at the pixel scale for each season; (4) the propagation time from meteorological drought to vegetation drought was shorter in summer (1.26 months) and longer in winter (2.26 months); and (5) the three-factors combination of Pacific North American (PNA), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Trans Polar Index (TPI) can satisfactorily explain the variations of vegetation drought. This study sheds new viewpoints into the identification of vegetation drought variation across China, which can also be applied in other areas. Full article

Approximately 3.5 million people in Nicaragua have experienced food insecurity due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced drought from 2014 to 2016. It is essential to study terrestrial water storage component (TWSC) changes and their responses to ENSO to prevent the water crisis in Nicaragua influenced by ENSO. In this paper, we investigate the TWSC changes in Nicaragua and its sub-basins derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)’s temporal gravity field, hydrological model, and water level data, and then determine the connection between the TWSC and ENSO from April 2002 to April 2021 by time series analysis. The research results show that: (1) The estimated TWSC changes in Nicaragua are in good agreement with the variation of precipitation and evaporation, and precipitation is the main cause of TWSC variation. (2) According to the cross-correlation analysis, there is a significant negative peak correlation between the interannual TWSC and ENSO in western Nicaragua, especially for interannual soil moisture (−0.80). The difference in peak correlation between the western and eastern sub-basins may be due to the topographic hindrance of the ENSO-inspired precipitation process. (3) The cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the resonance periods between TWSC and ENSO are primarily 2 and 4 years. These resonance periods are related to the two ENSO modes (the central Pacific (CP) mode with a quasi-2-year period and the eastern Pacific (EP) mode with a quasi-4-year period). Furthermore, their resonance phase variation may be due to the transition to ENSO mode. This study revealed the relationship between ENSO and TWSC in Nicaragua, which can provide a certain reference for water resources regulation. Full article

A novel approach to the physical memristor’s behavior of the KNOWM is presented in this work. The KNOWM’s memristor’s intrinsic feature encourages its use as a nonlinear resistor in chaotic circuits. Furthermore, this memristor has been shown to act like a static nonlinear resistor under certain situations. Consequently, for the first time, the KNOWM memristor is used as a static nonlinear resistor in the well-known chaotic Shinriki oscillator. In order to examine the circuit’s dynamical behavior, a host of nonlinear simulation tools, such as phase portraits, bifurcation and continuation diagrams, as well as a maximal Lyapunov exponent diagram, are used. Interesting phenomena related to chaos theory are observed. More specifically, the entrance to chaotic behavior through the antimonotonicity phenomenon is observed. Furthermore, the hysteresis phenomenon, as well as the existence of coexisting attractors in regards to the initial conditions and the parameters of the system, are investigated. Moreover, the period-doubling route to chaos and crisis phenomena are observed too. Full article

Precipitation extremes have important implications for regional water resources and ecological environment in endorheic (landlocked) basins. The Hongjian Lake Basin (HJLB), as the representative inflow area in the Ordos Plateau in China, is suffering from water scarcity and an ecosystem crisis; however, previous studies have paid little attention to changes in precipitation extremes in the HJLB. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variations of the core extreme precipitation indices (i.e., PRCTOT, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, R1, R10, CWD, and CDD) recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and analyzed the climatic dry–wet regime indicated by these extreme indices during 1960–2014 in the HJLB. The results show that the nine extreme indices had large differences in temporal and spatial variation characteristics. All the nine extreme precipitation indices showed a large fluctuation, both in the whole period and in the three detected different sub-periods, with variation magnitudes of 13%–52%. Most extreme indices had non-significant downward trends, while only the consecutive wet days (CWD) had a significant upward trend. The eight extreme wet indices increased from northwest to southeast, while the consecutive dry days (CDD) had the opposite change direction. Each index had a different trend with different spatial distribution locations and areas. The nine extreme indices revealed that the climate in the HJLB has become a drought since the early 1980s. This was specifically indicated by all four extreme precipitation quantity indices (PRCTOT, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day) and the extreme intensity index (SDII) declining, as well as the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) decreasing. When the dry–wet variations was divided into the different sub-periods, the climatic dry–wet changes of each index demonstrated more inconsistency and complexity, but most indices in the first sub-period from 1960 to the late 1970s could be regarded as a wet high-oscillation phase, the second sub-period after the early 1980s was a relatively dry low-oscillation phase, and the third sub-period after the late 1990s or early 21st century was a dry medium-oscillation phase. It is worth noting that most extreme indices had an obvious positive linear trend in the third sub-period, which means that in the last 20 years, the precipitation extremes showed an increasing trend. This study could provide a certain scientific reference for regional climate change detection, water resources management, and disaster prevention in the HJLB and similar endorheic basins or inland arid regions. Full article

With the change of climate and the impacts of human activities, the water resources crisis of the Yellow River is becoming increasingly serious. How and why did the streamflows of the Yellow River basin change? Based on observed annual runoff data (1956–2016) of 10 main hydrological stations along the Yellow River, the linear regression method, the Spearman rank correlation method and the Mann-Kendall test method are used to analyze runoff trend. The orderly clustering method, the sliding t test method and the Lee-Heghinian Method are used to identify the abrupt change point. Finally, the wavelet analysis method is used to identify runoff time series period. The results show that: (1) With the exception of the streamflow of Tangnaihai, the streamflows of all examined stations have significantly declining trends. The decrease of the streamflow from the upper to the middle to the lower reaches is becoming more and more obvious; (2) The runoff of the Yellow River has changed greatly. The abrupt change point at Tangnaihai occurred in 1989. The abrupt change points of the other stations took place in 1985; (3) The runoff along the Yellow River presents multi-time scale changes. The streamflows appear to have strongest periods of 25–40 years with a 40-year scale, which indicate the alternate oscillations of the high and the low water periods. The periods of <6 and 7–24 years are not stable and are complicated. The first main period of runoff in the Yellow River is 30 years; (4) The streamflow upstream of Tangnaihai station is mainly affected by the climate. The streamflows downstream of Tangnaihai station are influenced by human activities, especially water extraction and diversion and the operations of the large reservoirs. These research results have important practical guiding significance for hydrological forecasting, evaluation and management of water resources, construction of water conservancy projects and sustainable utilization of water resources in the region. Full article