Search Results (11)

Oil production will remain essential in the coming decades, requiring environmental responsibilities that are aligned with Agenda 2030. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) increases recovery efficiency with low investment, but environmental protection technologies (EOR and Env), including green EOR (GEOR) and waste treatment (WT), must be integrated. The BRICS association, representing half of global oil production, promotes technology transfer in this context. Worldwide patent data (2004–2023) of EOR and Env technologies at TRL 4–5 in BRICS and non-BRICS countries were compared for nine GEOR (1489 patents) and nine WT (2292 patents) methods. China is the global leader (73%, being 98% of BRICS patents), maintaining dominance even when normalized by GDP. Non-BRICS patents are from the USA (41%), Japan (31%), and the Republic of Korea (14%). BRICS countries surpassed non-BRICS in 2014, with a 5.9% growth rate, −13.2% for non-BRICS, with all methods growing, whereas in non-BRICS, only water flocculation treatment is growing. BRICS technological specialization is expanding more rapidly than that of non-BRICS countries. BRICS countries exhibit higher relative technological advantages and distance in surfactants, polymers, macromolecules, sludge treatment, and multistage water treatment devices. Non-BRICS countries are more competitive in in situ combustion, water alternating gas (WAG), re-pressurization, vacuum techniques, flotation, water–oil separation, sorption, or precipitation, flocculation, and oil-contaminated water. China is the primary BRICS leader and is positioned to define BRICS policies regarding technology transfer and innovation. Technological partnerships between BRICS and non-BRICS countries are strongly recommended to enhance synergy and achieve sustainable and efficient production more rapidly. Full article

To achieve sustainable economic growth, Saudi Vision 2030’s target is to improve Saudi Arabia’s ranking on the Global Competitiveness Index from 25 in 2015–2016 to within the top 10 by 2030. Saudi Arabia also aims to increase the share of non-oil exports in the non-oil GDP from 16% in 2016 to 50% by 2030. For policymakers to make informed decisions to achieve these goals, they need to understand the driving forces of Saudi Arabia’s competitiveness. To this end, we consider the real effective exchange rate (REER) as a measure of external price competitiveness, as it captures domestic and global price changes. We then examine the REER using a two-stage modeling framework. First, we estimate the REER equation, which allows us to assess the impacts of the determinants and evaluate currency misalignments as a competitiveness indicator. Second, we extend the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) with the estimated equation, which provides a framework for simulating the competitiveness impacts of the theoretically formulated determinants and other variables relevant to policymakers. The framework also allows us to account for feedback loops. We conduct a policy scenario analysis to quantify the competitiveness effects of the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) new strategy for 2021–2025. We derive the following policy insights. Authorities may wish to implement initiatives boosting future productivity and, thus, competitiveness, such as PIF investments. Policymakers should be regularly informed about currency misalignment. Government consumption and public investment projects should consider substituting imports with locally produced goods and services. Local content development would also help to diversify the Saudi economy. Finally, attracting more foreign investment and other assets from the rest of the world may lead to technological development and improvement in the economic, financial, and social infrastructure and business environment, all enhancing competitiveness. Full article

This study examines the energy intensity (EI), energy efficiency (EE), and economic growth, measured by the type of returns to scale (RTS), of 37 nations in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from 2000 to 2019. We apply a non-parametric approach to estimate the three measures from their consumption of four primary energy sources, such as coal, gas, oil, and zero emission (e.g., renewable and nuclear power) as inputs and gross domestic product (GDP) as an output. In this study, we have the two types of efficiency measures over time: window-based and cross-sectional-based measures. Three findings are identified from our empirical study. First, the operationally efficient group, including France, Iceland, Japan, Switzerland, UK, and USA, presented a stable status of full efficiency in the window-based efficiency measure. Iceland and Switzerland were also in the higher efficiency group based on the cross-sectional measure. Their efficiencies were high and stable over the observed periods. Second, zero-carbon-emission (e.g., renewable and nuclear) energies outperformed other energy sources (coal, gas, and oil) in terms of a potentiality of EI/EE improvement. In other words, OECD nations can improve on their EI/EE measures by reducing fuel consumption of coal, gas, and oil while maintaining their high GDP levels. Finally, four industrial nations (France, Japan, UK, and USA) had a status of unity in their EI/EE measures for zero-carbon-emission energies with decreasing RTS. These nations would increase zero-carbon emission for energy consumption to increase GDP while keeping optimal EI/EE because such changes in consumption would not largely affect EI/EE due to their constant RTS status. Iceland showed increasing RTS. The nation may improve the EI level by increasing zero-carbon-emission energy consumption and economic size. The four nations can increase zero-emission energy consumption to achieve further economic growth without observing a large deterioration of EI/EE because it is very close to constant RTS. The examination of RTS provides policy directions for the improvement of EI and EE. Switzerland showed decreasing RTS and may deteriorate the EI/EE by increasing energy consumption and the size of each economy. The remaining countries, whose degree of EI/EE measures was less than unity, showed increasing or decreasing RTS. The examination of RTS provides important implications for energy policy to enhance the degree of EI/ EE. Full article

In this research, we aimed to model the impact of world oil prices on the gross domestic product of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The objective of the study was to determine the transmission mechanism of the influence of the changing oil price within the macroeconomic indicators of the UAE. In this study, we analysed the impact of world oil prices and the crude oil sector on economic growth in the UAE for the period of 2001–2020 by applying ADF, OLS, ARDL, and Granger causality techniques. The results also showed the direct impact of the changes in oil prices on the GDP of the UAE in the short and long terms; in other words, a decline in oil prices could pose a threat to the economic security of the UAE in the long term if appropriate corrective measures are not taken. In order to avoid these negative consequences of the oil price crisis, in this study, we emphasize that the only alternative to exporting oil is to diversify economic sources for long-term development and increase the efficiency of non-oil sectors. Full article

Purpose: This study examines the impact of macroeconomic factors on GCC banks’ stability. As GCC countries still rely on oil export revenues to cover government expenses and perform an undiversified economy, hence, increased awareness of the financial diversifications in the GCC financial sectors is needed to contribute alongside oil sector revenues and then improve the non-oil sectors’ investments in order to eliminate the oil and macro-financial linkage that causes any changes in the oil price to impact the whole macroeconomic and financial system of the country. In this context, this research selected the most important macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, inflation rate, exchange rate, global financial crisis period (2008/2009), oil price fluctuation, and political instability within the period from 2005 to 2020, which covers many economic and political events. Design/methodology/approach: We used panel cointegration analysis, starting with a panel unit root test and including PFMOLS and PDOLS estimations. Additionally, FGLS estimation was used due to the existence of heteroskedasticity and auto-correlation in the sample. Findings: The findings suggest that there is an adverse relationship between the inflation rate, global financial crisis (2008/2009) and oil price changes, and the financial stability of GCC Islamic and conventional banks. However, the Islamic bank is less adversely affected by a financial crisis, oil price changes, inflation rate and political instability. Originality/value: This proposed model provided better knowledge for regulators and policymakers about the external impacts on GCC banks’ stability, to commit an appropriate economic policy to help in reforming the economic and financial imbalances. Full article

The present study intends to scrutinize the asymmetrical influence of economic growth, industrial production, CPI (consumer price index) and oil price on the trade deficit for the People’s Republic of China’s economy. The Toda–Yamamoto causality, non-linear ARDL method, and quarterly data for 1995Q1 to 2021Q4 have been utilized to investigate the results. The estimated results confirm the uni-directional causality and presence of non-linear co-integration among variables under discussion. However, bound test analysis also reveals the long-run asymmetrical association among TD (trade deficit), IP (industrial production), oil price, and GDP growth, but not the CPI (consumer price index). Further, long-run asymmetrical outcomes highlight that a decrease (increase) in industrial production and an increase (decrease) in oil price and GDP growth rate increase (decrease) the trade deficit. Short-run asymmetrical outcomes reveal a similar trend to the long run, but the impact of all variables in the short run is insignificant, which means that linkages between the trade deficit and the explanatory variables are a long-run phenomenon in People’s Republic of China. Thus, in terms of policy, to reduce the trade deficit, it is necessary to focus on attaining standardized GDP growth, increasing industrial-sector production using advanced technology, and replacing oil-using energy sources with green technology (solar panels, wind farm energy). Full article

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia depend heavily on natural resources for their exports, income, and employment. This study is a preliminary investigation that explores the effect of natural resources on domestic investment in a sample of 12 highly resource-dependent countries in the Middle East and Central Asia from 2000 to 2019. The recently advanced cross-sectional dependent auto-regressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model and panel quantile regression are employed. The results validate the accelerator theory that an increase of the non-oil GDP growth rate has a robust positive impact on domestic investment, while natural resources crowd-out domestic investment. The long-run estimate of ICT reveals a significant positive impact, while corruption shows a significant negative effect. These findings urge sample resource-dependent countries to focus on developing ICT-based enterprises and control prevailing corruption levels. Moreover, adopting liberal trade policies can also enhance domestic investment opportunities. Full article

The diversification of the economy including its exports is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. The vision targets to raise non-oil export from 16% to 50% of non-oil GDP by 2030. Achieving this, in addition to other goals, necessitates a better understanding of the non-oil export relationship with its determinants. However, we are not aware of a study that estimates the impacts of the determinants on Saudi non-oil exports covering the recent years of reforms and low oil prices and that conducts simulations for future. The purpose of this study is to develop an econometric modeling framework for Saudi non-oil export that can enhance informing the policymaking process through empirical estimations and simulations. For estimations, we applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methodology to the annual data for the period 1983–2018. Results show that Middle Eastern and North African countries’ GDP, as a measure of foreign income, and Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP, as a measure of production capacity, have statistically significant positive effects on Saudi non-oil exports in the long run. The real effective exchange rate (REER), as a measure of competitiveness, also exerts a positive effect in the long run if it depreciates and vice versa. Furthermore, our findings support the Export-led growth concept, which articulates that export can be an engine of economic growth and does not support the Dutch disease concept, which highlights the consequences of the resource sector for the non-resource tradable sector for Saudi Arabia. Macroeconometric model-based simulations conducted up to 2030 reveal out that the Saudi non-oil export is more responsive to the changes in REER than any other determinants. The simulation results also show that non-oil manufacturing makes a three times larger contribution to the future expansion of non-oil exports than agriculture. Moreover, the simulations discover that finance, insurance, and other business services, as well as transport and communication play an important role in improving the Saudi non-oil export performance in the coming decade. The key policy recommendation is that measures should be implemented in a coordinated and balanced way to achieve non-oil exports and other targets of the Vision. Full article

This paper investigates the causal links between domestic capital investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970–2015 by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing to cointegration approach. The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) are employed to check the robustness of the ARDL long run estimates. The results show that in the long term there are negative bidirectional causality between non-oil GDP growth and FDI, negative bidirectional causality between non-oil GDP growth and domestic capital investment, and bidirectional causality between FDI and domestic capital investment. FDI affects negatively domestic capital investment in the short run, whereas domestic capital investment affects negatively FDI in the long run. Both finance development and trade openness affect positively non-oil GDP growth, FDI inflows and domestic capital investment in the long run. The findings are important for Saudi policy makers to undertake the effective policies that can promote and lead domestic and foreign investments to enhance economic growth in the country. Full article

This study empirically examined the interrelationship between the construction sector, oil prices, and the actual gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria. Using annual economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, and econometric statistics, we found that although very strong positive and significant correlations exist between the construction sector output and total GDP output (0.934), the construction sector output and oil prices (0.856), and the total GDP output and oil prices (0.822), these linear relationships only exist for a short time. However, these relationships do not result in any direct causal influence on each other, except for the uni-directional Granger causal relationship that flows from the total GDP output to the construction sector output, which implies that economic activities of other major non-oil sectors stimulate the construction activities in Nigeria. Thus, we argue that neither the construction sector nor the oil prices directly influence the aggregate economy; rather, the other sectors’ activities stimulate the construction sector in Nigeria. Two policy recommendations for achieving the Federal Government’s medium term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) are suggested: (1) the Nigerian government should de-emphasize overreliance on the oil sector through policy readjustment and (2) an urgent need for economic diversification in Nigeria exists, since we revealed that an increase in the aggregate GDP output is due to the activities of other non-oil sectors. Full article

This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector. Full article