Search Results (345)

Air pollution, particularly fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM₁₀) particulate matter, poses significant risks to public health and environmental sustainability. This study aims to develop robust predictive and forecasting models for hourly PM concentrations in Craiova, Romania, using advanced hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. A five-year dataset (2020–2024), comprising 20 meteorological and pollution-related variables recorded by four air quality monitoring stations, was analyzed. The methodology consists of three main phases: (i) data preprocessing, including anomaly detection and missing value handling; (ii) exploratory analysis to identify trends and correlations between PM concentrations (PMs) and predictor variables; and (iii) model development using 23 machine learning and deep learning algorithms, enhanced by 50 feature selection techniques. A deep Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (Deep-NARMAX) model was employed for multi-step-ahead forecasting. The best-performing models achieved R² values of 0.85 for PM_2.5 and 0.89 for PM₁₀, with low RMSE and MAPE scores, demonstrating high accuracy and generalizability. The GEO-based feature selection method effectively identified the most relevant predictors, while the Deep-NARMAX model captured temporal dynamics for accurate forecasting. These results highlight the potential of hybrid AI models for air quality management and provide a scalable framework for urban pollution monitoring, predicting, and forecasting. Full article

The Flexible Combined Imager (FCI), developed as the next-generation imager for the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satellite series, represents a significant advancement over its predecessor, SEVIRI, on the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. FCI offers more spectral bands, higher spatial resolution, and faster imaging capabilities, supporting a wide range of applications in weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental analysis. On 13 January 2024, the FCI onboard MTG-I1 (renamed Meteosat-12 in December 2024) experienced a critical anomaly involving the failure of its onboard Calibration and Obturation Mechanism (COM). As a result, the use of the COM was discontinued to preserve operational safety, leaving the instrument dependent on alternative calibration methods. This loss of onboard calibration presents immediate challenges, particularly for the infrared channels, including image artifacts (e.g., striping), reduced radiometric accuracy, and diminished stability. To address these issues, EUMETSAT implemented an external calibration approach leveraging algorithms from the Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS). The inter-calibration algorithm transfers stable and accurate calibration from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) hyperspectral instrument aboard Metop-B and Metop-C satellites to FCI’s infrared channels daily, ensuring continued data quality. Comparisons with Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) data from NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites using a similar algorithm is then used to validate the radiometric performance of the calibration. This confirms that the external calibration method effectively compensates for the absence of onboard blackbody calibration for the infrared channels. For the visible and near-infrared channels, slower degradation rates and pre-anomaly calibration ensure continued accuracy, with vicarious calibration expected to become the primary source. This adaptive calibration strategy introduces a novel paradigm for in-flight calibration of geostationary instruments and offers valuable insights for satellite missions lacking onboard calibration devices. This paper details the COM anomaly, the external calibration process, and the broader implications for future geostationary satellite missions. Full article

Banana is an important cash and food crop worldwide. Recent outbreaks of banana diseases are threatening the global banana industry and smallholder livelihoods. Remote sensing data offer the potential to detect the presence of disease, but formal analysis is needed to compare inferred disease data with observed disease data. In this study, we present a novel remote-sensing-based framework that combines Landsat-8 imagery with meteorology-informed phenological models and machine learning to identify anomalies in banana crop health. Unlike prior studies, our approach integrates domain-specific crop phenology to enhance the specificity of anomaly detection. We used a pixel-level random forest (RF) model to predict 11 key vegetation indices (VIs) as a function of historical meteorological conditions, specifically daytime and nighttime temperature from MODIS and precipitation from NASA GES DISC. By training on periods of healthy crop growth, the RF model establishes expected VI values under disease-free conditions. Disease presence is then detected by quantifying the deviations between observed VIs from Landsat-8 imagery and these predicted healthy VI values. The model demonstrated robust predictive reliability in accounting for seasonal variations, with forecasting errors for all VIs remaining within 10% when applied to a disease-free control plantation. Applied to two documented outbreak cases, the results show strong spatial alignment between flagged anomalies and historical reports of banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) and Fusarium wilt Tropical Race 4 (TR4). Specifically, for BBTD in Australia, a strong correlation of 0.73 was observed between infection counts and the discrepancy between predicted and observed NDVI values at the pixel with the highest number of infections. Notably, VI declines preceded reported infection rises by approximately two months. For TR4 in Mozambique, the approach successfully tracked disease progression, revealing clear spatial spread patterns and correlations as high as 0.98 between VI anomalies and disease cases in some pixels. These findings support the potential of our method as a scalable early warning system for banana disease detection. Full article

Sustainable development is increasingly challenged by the growing threats of climate change. There is a close relationship between climate change, public health, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study investigates the temperature anomalies in the Kingdom of Bahrain and their potential effects on human health. Furthermore, it proposes solutions to support Bahrain’s SDG-related goals. Data were collected from global studies and statistics and the Bahrain Meteorological Directorate over 50 years, which were then used to calculate the temperature anomalies and the heat indices, thereby exploring the past and present monthly and annual national temperature and sociated risks to human health. The results show that Bahrain is located in an area of high temperature anomalies and high rates of cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, anomaly calculations indicate a critical rise in temperature, ranging from 1 to 4 °C higher than the averages recorded in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Such an increase could significantly affect human health, particularly since the heat index results show that summers consistently fall within the extreme danger ranges. In contrast, other seasons have occasionally reached the danger level or required extreme caution in certain years. Consequently, this study offers recommendations to help mitigate the rise in temperature and associated risks in the future. Full article

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is crucial for agriculture and is traditionally estimated using the Penman–Monteith (PM) method, which relies on multiple climatic variables. This study assessed machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate ETo at the Yauri meteorological station in Peru. Two ML models—K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and artificial neural networks (ANN)—were tested and compared against both the PM and the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) methods. Their accuracy was measured using metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), and spectral angle (SA). The results indicate that ML techniques can effectively estimate ETo, providing robust alternatives in areas with limited meteorological data, thus enhancing water resource management. Full article

Rail-based crop phenotypic platforms operating in open-field environments face challenges such as environmental variability and unstable data quality, highlighting the urgent need for intelligent, online data acquisition strategies. This study proposes a digital twin-based data acquisition strategy tailored to such platforms. A closed-loop architecture “comprising connection, computation, prediction, decision-making, and execution“ was developed to build DT-FieldPheno, a digital twin system that enables real-time synchronization between physical equipment and its virtual counterpart, along with dynamic device monitoring. Weather condition standards were defined based on multi-source sensor requirements, and a dual-layer weather risk assessment model was constructed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by integrating weather forecasts and real-time meteorological data to guide adaptive data acquisition scheduling. Field deployment over 27 consecutive days in a maize field demonstrated that DT-FieldPheno reduced the manual inspection workload by 50%. The system successfully identified and canceled two high-risk tasks under wind-speed threshold exceedance and optimized two others affected by gusts and rainfall, thereby avoiding ineffective operations. It also achieved sub-second responses to trajectory deviation and communication anomalies. The synchronized digital twin interface supported remote, real-time visual supervision. DT-FieldPheno provides a technological paradigm for advancing crop phenotypic platforms toward intelligent regulation, remote management, and multi-system integration. Future work will focus on expanding multi-domain sensing capabilities, enhancing model adaptability, and evaluating system energy consumption and computational overhead to support scalable field deployment. Full article

Coal mining provides energy and economic benefits but also causes environmental damage, including land degradation, pollution, and surface temperature anomalies. Underground coal fires can severely impact the environment, leading to abnormal heat, ground deformation, and ecological harm. Using Landsat-9 imagery and meteorological data, we developed a new threshold-based method to detect large-scale land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAs). By analyzing multiple images from November to February, we improved the accuracy of this method. The LSTA data were integrated with topographic indexes and different coal seam depths to filter irrelevant points. A Wilcoxon test, correlation analysis, and linear regression were performed with the LSTA multi-data matrix to quantify the relationships between the topographical and temperature indexes. The results revealed significant differences in elevation (relative elevation), slope, and TWI across different coal seam depths (p < 0.001). LST distribution in November, December, and February was significantly different among the three different seam depth units (p < 0.001). Relative elevation strongly correlated with temperature. The relationship between relative elevation and temperature may change seasonally due to seasonal climatic fluctuations and heterogeneous underlying surface characteristics. Full article

With rising global temperatures attributed to climate change, an increase in fire occurrences worldwide is anticipated. Therefore, a detailed examination of changing fire patterns is essential to improve our understanding of effective control strategies. This study analyzes the long-term trends of fire activity in Southern India (8–20° N, 73–85° E), utilizing MODIS active fire count data from January 2003 to December 2023. The climatological monthly mean results show that Southern India experiences heightened fire activity from December to May, reaching a peak in March. Yearly variations indicate that the highest fire counts occurred in 2021, followed by 2023, 2012, and 2018. The three most significant fire years in recent history reflect an upward trend in fire activity over the past decade, confirming insights from annual trend analysis. The correlation between inter-annual fire anomalies and different meteorological factors reveals a notable negative relationship with precipitation and soil moisture and a positive relationship with surface air temperature (SAT). Soil moisture demonstrates a stronger correlation (−0.45) than precipitation and SAT. In summary, long-term trends show a noteworthy annual increase of 3%. Additionally, monthly trends reveal interesting rising patterns in October, November, December, and January with higher significance levels. Our research supports regional climate action initiatives and policies addressing fire incidents in Southern India in light of the ongoing warming crisis. Full article

Satellite imagery provides a rich source of information that serves as a comprehensive and synoptic tool for the continuous monitoring of active volcanoes, including those in remote and inaccessible areas. The huge influx of such data requires the development of automated systems for efficient processing and interpretation. Early warning systems, designed to process satellite imagery to identify signs of impending eruptions and monitor eruptive activity in near real-time, are essential for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. Here, we propose a machine learning approach for the automatic classification of pixels in SEVIRI images to detect and characterize the eruptive activity of a volcano. In particular, we exploit a semi-supervised GAN (SGAN) model that retrieves the presence of thermal anomalies, volcanic ash plumes, and meteorological clouds in each SEVIRI pixel, allowing time series plots to be obtained showing the evolution of volcanic activity. The SGAN model was trained and tested using the huge amount of data available on Mount Etna (Italy). Then, it was applied to other volcanoes, specifically, Stromboli (Italy), Tajogaite (Spain), and Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of the Congo), to assess the model’s ability to generalize. The validation of the model was performed through a visual comparison between the classification results and the corresponding SEVIRI images. Moreover, we evaluate the model performance by calculating three different metrics, namely the precision (correctness of positive predictions), the recall (ability to find all the positive instances), and the F1-score (general model’s accuracy), finding an average accuracy of 0.9. Our approach can be extended to other geostationary satellite data and applied worldwide to characterize volcanic activity, allowing the monitoring of even remote volcanoes that are difficult to reach from the ground. Full article

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Qaidam Basin in western China is highly sensitive to climate change. The GRACE mascon products provide variations of TWS anomalies (TWSAs), greatly facilitating the exploration of water storage dynamics. However, the main meteorological factors affecting the TWSA dynamics in this region need to be comprehensively investigated. In this study, variations in TWSAs over the Qaidam Basin from 2002 to 2024 were analyzed using three GRACE mascon products with CSR, JPL, and GSFC. The groundwater storage anomalies (GWAs) were extracted through GRACE and GLDAS products. The impact of meteorological elements on TWSAs and GWAs was identified. The results showed that the GRACE mascon products showed a significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.51 ± 0.13 mm per month in TWSAs across the entire basin from 2003 to 2016. The groundwater part accounted for the largest proportion and was the main contributor to the increase in TWS for the entire basin. In addition to the dominant role of precipitation, other meteorological elements, particularly air humidity and solar radiation, were also identified as important contributors to TWSA and GWA variations. This study highlighted the climatic effect on water storage variations, which have important implications for local water resource management and ecological conservation under ongoing climate change. Full article

Quantifying extreme weather events (EWEs) and understanding their impacts on vegetation phenology is crucial for assessing ecosystem stability under climate change. This study systematically investigated the ecosystem growing season length (GL) response to four types of EWEs—extreme heat, extreme cold, extreme wetness (surplus precipitation), and extreme drought (lack of precipitation). The EWE extremity thresholds were found statistically using detrended long time series (2000–2022) ERA5 meteorological data through z-score transformation. The analysis was based on a grassland ecosystem in the Mongolian Plateau (MP) from 2000 to 2022. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data and event coincidence analysis, we evaluated the probability of GL anomalies coinciding with EWEs and assessed the vegetation sensitivity to climate variability. The analysis showed that 83.7% of negative and 87.4% of positive GL anomalies were associated with one or more EWEs, with extreme wetness (27.0%) and extreme heat (25.4%) contributing the most. These findings highlight the dominant role of EWEs in shaping phenological shifts. Negative GL anomalies were more strongly linked to EWEs, particularly in arid and cold regions where extreme drought and cold shortened the growing season. Conversely, extreme heat and wetness had a greater influence in warmer and wetter areas, driving both the lengthening and shortening of GL. Furthermore, background hydrothermal conditions modulated the vegetation sensitivity, with warmer regions being more susceptible to heat stress and drier regions more vulnerable to drought. These findings emphasize the importance of regional weather variability and climate characteristics in shaping vegetation phenology and provide new insights into how weather extremes impact ecosystem stability in semi-arid and arid regions. Future research should explore extreme weather events and the role of human activities to enhance predictions of vegetation–climate interactions in grassland ecosystems of the MP. Full article

Sea surface temperature (SST) is considered a strong indicator of climate change, being an essential parameter for long-range weather and climate forecasting. Another important indicator of climate change is sea level (SL), which has a longer history of systematic instrumental observations. This paper aims to examine the relationships between low-latitude variations in ocean characteristics (SST and SL) and surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the Arctic and mid-latitudes, and discuss the possibility of using SST and SL as predictors to forecast seasonal SAT anomalies. Archives of meteorological observations, atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses, and long-term series of tide gauge data on SL were used in this study. An analysis of relationships between seasonal SAT in different mid-to-high latitude regions and SST made it possible to identify areas in the ocean that have the greatest influence on SAT patterns. The most commonly identified area is located in the tropical North Atlantic. Another area was found in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The predictive potential of the relationships identified between ocean characteristics (SST and SL) and SAT will be used to build deep learning models aimed at predicting climate variability in mid-to-high latitudes. Full article

The impact of reduced human activity on air quality in seven major Chinese cities was investigated by utilizing datasets of air pollutants and meteorological conditions from 2016 to 2021. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was developed to predict air quality during reduced-activity periods and rigorously validated against ground station measurements, achieving an R² of 0.85–0.93. Predictions were compared to the observed pollutant reductions (e.g., NO₂ declined by 34% in 2020 vs. 2019), confirming model reliability. Transfer learning further refined the accuracy, reducing RMSE by 32–44% across pollutants when benchmarked against real-world data. Notable NO₂ declines were observed in Beijing (42%), Changchun (38%), and Wuhan (36%), primarily due to decreased vehicular traffic and industrial activity. Despite occasional anomalies caused by localized events such as fireworks (Beijing, February 2020) and agricultural burning (Changchun, April 2020), our findings highlight the strong influence of human activity reductions on urban air quality. These results offer valuable insights for designing long-term pollution mitigation strategies and urban air quality policies. Full article

Offshore wind farms play a pivotal role in the global transition to clean energy but remain susceptible to diverse meteorological hazards—ranging from highly variable wind speeds and temperature anomalies to severe oceanic disturbances—that can jeopardize both turbine safety and overall power output. Although Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have a longstanding track record in operational forecasting, this study leverages and extends their capabilities by introducing a dynamic HMM framework tailored specifically for multi-risk offshore wind applications. Building upon historical datasets and expert assessments, the proposed model begins with initial transition and observation probabilities and then refines them adaptively through periodic or event-triggered recalibrations (e.g., Baum–Welch), thus capturing evolving weather patterns in near-real-time. Compared to static Markov chains, naive Bayes classifiers, and RNN (LSTM) baselines, our approach demonstrates notable accuracy gains, with improvements of up to 10% in severe weather conditions across three industrial-scale wind farms. Additionally, the model’s minutes-level computational overhead for parameter updates and state decoding proves feasible for real-time deployment, thereby supporting proactive scheduling and maintenance decisions. While this work focuses on the core dynamic HMM method, future expansions may incorporate hierarchical structures, Bayesian uncertainty quantification, and GAN-based synthetic data to further enhance robustness under high-dimensional measurements and rare, long-tail meteorological events. In sum, the multi-risk forecasting methodology presented here—though built on an established HMM concept—offers a practical, adaptive solution that significantly bolsters safety margins and operational reliability in offshore wind power systems. Full article

Forests in Croatia are characterized by higher levels of biodiversity in species composition. Three significant events occurred in Croatian forests over the past ten years, all of which have a common denominator—sanitary felling. The challenge in the sustainable development of forests started with the ice storm of 2014 that amounted to damage and raised costs in forest stands to EUR 231,180,921. The second challenge was in 2017 when the bark beetle outbreak occurred in the Gorski Kotar region. In December 2017, a windstorm in the same area caused damage to approximately 500,000 m³ of wood stock. The third climate extreme was in the summer of 2023 when three storms with strong winds and heavy rain damaged even-aged forests of common beech and pedunculated oak. The damage was substantial: 3,954,181 m³ of timber was mostly broken and destroyed across 21,888.61 ha of area, and the most damage was in the pedunculate oak forests of Slavonia, i.e., Quercus robur subsp. Slavonica, at 1,939,175 m³. For the main meteorological stations in lowland Croatia, data on precipitation amounts (mm) and wind speeds (m/s) were collected for the period 1981–2023, and the results of our analysis for the last decade are presented. Meteorological drought was analyzed using the rain anomaly index RAI. Data regarding open space fires in the Mediterranean karst area of Croatia were collected from the Croatian Firefighting Association, and the calculation of the burned area index (BAI) was determined. Throughout the entire area of Gorski Kotar County, a sample of permanent plots was set and used to assess the extent of forest damage from the ice storm in 2014 and for the establishment of permanent monitoring of the recovery of trees and forests damaged by the ice storm. The monitoring of bark beetles in the Gorski Kotar region started in 1995 and is still in progress. The aftermath of bark beetle outbreaks in two uneven-aged silver fir stands was studied after a bark beetle outbreak and a sanitary felling of 4655.34 m³. In the area of lowland Croatia, a statistically significant and positive correlation was found between sanitary fellings, maximum wind speeds, and rain anomaly indices in even-aged forests. In conclusion, sustainable development will be at risk due to difficult recovery, rising costs, and overall climate change in the years to come. Full article