Search Results (397)

Ecosystem carbon storage is highly sensitive to land-use/land-cover change (LUCC). However, retrospective carbon assessment, spatial factor analysis, and future land-use optimization are often conducted separately, limiting their ability to support territorial planning involving competing economic, ecological, and carbon-storage objectives. Taking Jiangsu Province, China, as a rapidly urbanizing region, this study developed an integrated framework combining multi-temporal remote-sensing-derived land-use data with the InVEST carbon storage model, Geodetector, multi-objective programming (MOP), and the intPLUS model. Land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 were used to quantify changes in land use and ecosystem carbon storage and to examine how natural, socioeconomic, and accessibility conditions corresponded spatially to the observed land-use configuration. Pareto optimization was then applied to identify non-dominated land-use allocations, which were spatialized to simulate five land-use scenarios for 2030. From 2000 to 2020, cropland decreased by 7475 km², while construction land increased by 6974 km². Correspondingly, ecosystem carbon storage declined from 1431.85 Mt to 1402.55 Mt, representing a cumulative loss of 29.30 Mt. This decline was primarily associated with cropland loss and construction land expansion, particularly the conversion of cropland into construction land. Although the overall spatial pattern of carbon storage remained relatively stable, high-value areas gradually contracted, whereas low-value areas expanded in intensively urbanized regions. Geodetector results showed that pairwise factor combinations generally corresponded more closely to the spatial differentiation of land-use patterns than individual topographic factors, and that associations involving socioeconomic activity, transport accessibility, and vegetation cover became more pronounced over time. The 2030 scenario analysis revealed clear trade-offs: the carbon storage maximization scenario produced the highest carbon storage (1497.47 Mt), the economic development scenario generated the highest economic benefit but the lowest ecosystem service value, and the natural development scenario produced the lowest carbon storage (1384.46 Mt). The Pareto-based comprehensive optimization scenario maintained 1487.12 Mt of carbon while achieving a comparatively balanced combination of economic benefit and ecosystem service value. These findings demonstrate that integrating multi-temporal remote sensing, ecosystem-service modeling, and Pareto optimization can translate historical land-use information into flexible spatial planning alternatives for rapidly urbanizing regions. Full article

High-density valley residential areas face poor ventilation and heat island effects. Taking Lanzhou’s Xin’an Residential Area as a case, this study integrates land use and cover change (LUCC), circuit theory, and CFD to construct a resistance surface, identify corridors and key nodes, reveal coupling mechanisms and propose collaborative optimization strategies. Results show the following: (1) Ventilation resistance presents a pattern of “low in the north, high in the south, permeable at the periphery, obstructed in the interior”, with high-resistance zones accounting for 18% of the grid area; green plot ratio is the most sensitive regulatory factor (standardized regression coefficient = −0.679). (2) The fishbone-like ventilation network has primary hub nodes undertaking 80% of airflow transport, while tertiary terminal nodes (73% of total nodes) are the main ventilation bottlenecks. (3) Built-up land morphological indicators show strong spatial collinearity, and the positive effect of road plot ratio is masked in the regression model. The proposed hierarchical micro-renewal strategy provides an operable technical pathway for wind environment optimization, low-carbon renewal and climate-adaptive retrofitting of high-density valley residential areas. This study extends circuit theory to micro-scale ventilation analysis and establishes a replicable quantitative framework for ventilation diagnosis in analogous valley residential contexts. Full article

Under China’s dual-carbon targets, mountainous areas are critical ecological barriers with substantial carbon-sink potential. This study investigated the effects of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) on carbon emission (CE), carbon storage (CS), and carbon balance in Longhui, Dongkou, and Suining counties in the central Xuefeng Mountains. Using LUCC data from 2000 to 2020, we combined the InVEST, PLUS, and Gray Models with an emission-coefficient method to reconstruct historical LUCC and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of CE and CS. Future carbon balance was then modeled for 2040 under natural development (ND), ecological protection (EP), and economic development (ED) scenarios. The results indicated that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, construction land doubled, whereas cultivated land and forest land decreased significantly; (2) net CE increased by 3.5-fold, with construction land acting as the dominant carbon source and forest land serving as the primary carbon sink. CS declined by 3.7 × 10⁵ t and exhibited a spatial pattern of high in the west, low in the east. The carbon supply-demand ratio (CSDR) showed a continuous downward trend, with central towns approaching carbon deficits. (3) Projections for 2040 indicated that Taohong Town will face a carbon deficit under the ED, while nearing the critical threshold under the ND. Although the EP prevents a deficit, the town remains vulnerable near the tipping point; in contrast, western ecological townships maintain substantial carbon surpluses. Accordingly, four carbon-balance regulation zones are identified, and differentiated governance strategies are proposed. These findings provide a scientific basis for carbon-balance regulation and low-carbon territorial planning in mountainous counties. Full article

Anthropogenic land use constitutes a key driver of land cover change, exerting profound impacts on terrestrial carbon/water cycles and ecosystems across global to regional scales. Consequently, long-term land cover datasets serve as fundamental data infrastructure for ecological effect assessment and paleoclimate modeling. Considering the dominant role of historical anthropogenic disturbances in vegetation change across the Hehuang Valley, we developed a 1 km × 1 km potential vegetation prior to land reclamation map through integrating remotely sensed land-use patterns with Random Forest-modeled vegetation predictions. Then, we derived changes in forest and grassland areas and their spatial patterns over the past two millennia by subtracting the spatially explicit cropland cover for six agricultural expansion stages. Finally, we compared our results with representative historical LUCC datasets. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The potential vegetation of the Hehuang Valley was predominantly grassland, with forest occurring as a patchy and linear mosaic. Grassland and forest covered approximately 2.6 × 10⁴ km² and 0.7 × 10⁴ km², respectively. (2) Over the past two millennia, during the Han (202 BCE–220 CE), Tang (618–907 CE), Song (960–1279 CE), Ming (1368–1644 CE), and Qing (1644–1912 CE) dynasties, as well as the Republic of China period (1912–1949 CE), cropland reclamation reduced forest and grassland cover by 6% and 18%, respectively. Forest area decreased by 23.58–100.03 km², while grassland area decreased by 310.72–1513.05 km² across these periods. Grassland reduction was concentrated in valleys, whereas forest reduction was spatially scattered but locally intensive. These findings highlight the need to promote sustainable cropland development through technological innovation, improved management, and agricultural specialization rather than ecosystem conversion. (3) Compared with the HYDE 3.2 dataset and a national-scale reconstruction dataset, our framework better reflects the regional characteristics of the Hehuang Valley and provides a more detailed reconstruction of long-term forest and grassland changes. Full article

Megacities represent an advanced stage of urban development where expansion-induced carbon debt increases environmental pressure. This study examined the spatial response of carbon stock change to urban expansion in megacities. Based on 2000–2020 land use/land cover data for 11 Chinese megacities, concentric ring analysis and spatial exploratory methods were employed to quantify urban expansion intensity and carbon stock change and to infer stage transition characteristics. The results indicate that: (1) urban expansion intensity declined over time as growth shifted from rapid edge or infill expansion toward smart-growth-oriented development; (2) carbon budget fluctuations weakened, and emission patterns evolved toward improved carbon balances and enhanced sink effects, with Beijing and Tianjin emerging as local carbon sinks; (3) the carbon effects of LUCC showed a stage transition from rapid expansion–intensive emission to slow expansion–moderate emission, and policy intervention reshaped this relationship. The carbon effects of megacity expansion are stage-dependent rather than linear, and policy intervention can shift this relationship before economic maturity, offering guidance for low-carbon planning in developing-country contexts. Full article

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of land-use and cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem service (ES) responses is essential for assessing ecological functions in regional landscapes. However, conventional LUCC simulations often rely on historical trends and inadequately represent the spatially heterogeneous effects of top-down policy constraints. Taking the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) as a case study, we developed a policy-to-rule framework that translated ecological redlines, urban development boundaries, and restoration requirements into explicit spatial constraints and land-use transition rules in the PLUS model. A policy-constrained High-Quality Development Scenario (HQDS) was established, with the Natural Growth Scenario (NGS) as a reference. Five ESs were assessed using InVEST from 1985 to 2050, and the results were integrated with the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model and circuit theory to construct an ecological security pattern (ESP). Historical reconstruction of the 2022 land-use pattern achieved an overall accuracy of 90.18% and a Kappa coefficient of 86.39%. The five ESs remained relatively stable overall: water yield, soil conservation, and the sediment-related indicator increased, whereas habitat quality and carbon storage declined slightly. Ecological source areas expanded from 7140.54 km² in 1985 to 12,039.17 km² under the HQDS in 2050, a 68.6% increase. Compared with the NGS, the HQDS increased source areas by 562.42 km² (4.9%), reduced ecological corridors from 26 to 24, and increased their total length from 1068.89 to 1099.61 km. These differences represent the projected, scenario-conditioned consequences of the specified policy constraints and provide quantitative decision support for future ecological management. Full article

As the core water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area plays a critical role in regional ecological security and water resource security. Its land use transitions and associated ecosystem service dynamics are examined. Based on land use, ecological sensitivity, and ecosystem service value data from 2000 to 2020, this study employed the FLUS model to simulate four scenarios—natural development, cropland protection, ecological protection, and ecological–cropland synergy—for 2050, systematically revealing the characteristics of land use transition, the coupled evolution of ecological sensitivity and ecosystem service value, and the trade-off mechanisms between ecological security and food security under multiple scenarios. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, land use in the reservoir area exhibited an ecological transition characterized by “two expansions and three contractions”: forestland and water bodies increased by 764.16 km² and 324.36 km², respectively, while cropland and grassland decreased by 664.33 km² and 547.08 km², the comprehensive index of land use degree declined by approximately 1.0%, indicating continuously weakening development intensity. (2) The overall hierarchical structure of ecological sensitivity improved, with the area of highly sensitive zones decreasing from 5201.60 km² to 3729.91 km²; however, the concentration risk of highly sensitive forestland and the unexpected increase in extremely sensitive cropland persisted. (3) Total ecosystem service value increased from CNY 51.92 billion to CNY 58.35 billion (+12.38%), with hydrological regulation contributing 79.83% of the total increment; regulating services remained the core functional type. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the coefficient of sensitivity (CS) values were below 1, confirming the robustness of the findings. (4) Multi-scenario simulations revealed a rigid ecological–food security trade-off: under natural development, ESV increased by 15.44% but cropland loss reached 1033.29 km²; under cropland protection, ESV decreased by 1.50%, the only scenario with negative ecological outcomes; under ecological protection, ESV increased by 16.59% but with the most severe cropland loss (−1072.98 km²); under ecological–cropland synergy, water bodies expanded the most substantially (+562.75 km²) while cropland loss was the most severe (−1118.19 km²), indicating that the synergy goal was not achieved, as gains in regulating services came at the cost of further provisioning services losses. The study confirms the positive effects of ecological land use transition in the reservoir area, while also highlighting the intensifying conflict between ecological protection and food security against the backdrop of ecological improvement. Full article

Sustainable urbanization requires reconciling rapid land development with ecological security, a challenge particularly acute in mountainous megacities. While land-use/cover change (LUCC) substantially reshapes regional carbon storage, conventional whole-region assessments often mask critical spatiotemporal dynamics and subregional heterogeneity. Taking Chongqing, China, as a representative case, this study integrates the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models to decode historical carbon-storage dynamics (2000–2020) and simulate future spatial trajectories (2035) under four multi-scenario land-use pathways: Integrated Development Priority Scenario (IDPS), Ecological Conservation Priority Scenario (ECPS), Farmland Conservation Priority Scenario (FCPS), and Economic Priority Scenario (EPS). Results show a net decline of 8.49 × 10⁶ t in total carbon storage during 2000–2020, primarily driven by the often-overlooked degradation of high-carbon-density grasslands alongside construction-land expansion. Scenario simulations reveal that the ECPS is the only pathway achieving a net carbon-storage increase (+4.26 × 10⁶ t), although the resulting land-use pattern was jointly shaped by ecological protection constraints, land suitability, and scenario-specific land-demand allocation. Crucially, subregional analysis highlights distinct spatial roles: the Northeastern Urban Agglomeration (NUA) emerges as the core for ecological restoration, the Main Urban Area (MUA) remains highly sensitive to development-driven carbon loss, and the Southeastern Urban Agglomeration (SUA) acts as a buffer requiring a delicate development balance. By linking coupled spatial modeling with subregional constraints, this framework advocates for a shift from “one-size-fits-all” land management to precise spatial governance, providing a scalable scientific reference for carbon-oriented sustainable planning in mountainous megacities worldwide. Full article

Against the backdrop of coordinated development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Hebei Province serves as an ecological safety barrier for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration. Conducting research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) holds significant theoretical and practical value for elucidating the mechanisms underlying ESV evolution under the combined effects of rapid urbanization and major ecological engineering projects, and for applying these findings to regional land-use planning and ecological conservation and restoration efforts. This research aligns with the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2020–2030). Based on land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, along with 11 categories of natural and socio-economic drivers, this study systematically analyses regional LUCC and calculates ESV using locally adjusted equivalence factors. It examines the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of ESV through the analysis of local spatial autocorrelation indices (LISAs), centroid, and standard deviation ellipses, and employs a GeoDetector to measure ESV drivers. Three scenarios—a natural evolution scenario (NES), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS)—were established. The patch-generating Land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed to simulate LUCC for 2030 (Kappa = 0.840) and calculate ESV. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, forest land and impervious surfaces in Hebei Province continued to expand, while cropland and grassland decreased. The cumulative ESV increased by 4.85 billion yuan. Slope was the primary driver of spatial variation in ESV, and the interaction between natural and socioeconomic factors demonstrated significantly stronger explanatory power. In 2030, the total ESV under all three scenarios was lower than in 2020. The EPS reached an ESV of 344.72 billion yuan, representing a relatively suitable model that balances development and conservation. Full article

Spatial differentiation of urban natural basement conditions leads to significant differences in urbanization development patterns and land evolution patterns in different regions. Taking Fuzhou, a typical coastal basin city located in the Minjiang River Estuary, as the study area, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and quantifies its driving mechanism from 1990 to 2020, by using the land use transition matrix (LUTM), the center-of-gravity model (CGM), the standard deviation ellipse (SDE), and the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results show that (1) the land use structure has undergone drastic restructuring, the built-up land has increased significantly, the grassland has decreased significantly, and the cropland and forest land have shown phased evolution characteristics: a light increase from 1990 to 2000 and a continuous decline from 2000 to 2020. Water exhibited a fluctuating pattern: shrinking from 1990 to 2000, expanding from 2000 to 2010, and shrinking again from 2010 to 2020. (2) Constrained by the terrain of the Minjiang Estuary Basin, the gravity centers of cropland and grassland shifted northwestward, forest land moved southeastward, water shifted northeastward, and built-up land expanded northward. (3) Driving factors exhibited stagewise differences: socioeconomic factors played a dominant role from 1990 to 2000, with population density ($q$ = 0.4029) and nighttime light ($q$ = 0.3639) being significantly higher than other factors. From 2000 to 2010, the terrain constraint effect continued to intensify, with GDP ($q$ = 0.4470), nighttime light ($q$ = 0.3658) and DEM ($q$ = 0.3638) as the dominant factors. From 2010 to 2020, urban land pattern evolution was jointly driven by multiple factors. This study clarifies the land use evolution mechanism of coastal basin cities during urbanization, providing a scientific reference for the sustainable development of similar coastal basin cities. Full article

Land-use and land-cover changes around reservoirs mediate the interface between watershed land systems and managed surface-water resources. In regulated reservoirs, water-level regulation can rapidly expose or inundate shore-zone land, yet evidence remains limited on where these transitions occur, how landscape configuration changes, and how such information can inform watershed and reservoir-margin management. Using 0.5 m Jilin-1 optical imagery from April and September of 2024 and 2025, this study mapped land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the Danjiangkou Reservoir shore zone and integrated transition matrices, class-level landscape metrics, shoreline-distance gradients, reach-level zoning, paired hydrological records, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The classification achieved an overall accuracy of 93.1% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.921. The strongest land-cover shift occurred between September 2024 and April 2025, when the water proportion declined from 78.74% to 60.10% and bare land expanded during the lowest observed reservoir stage (151.02 m). Subsequent refill was accompanied by partial re-inundation and increases in grassland, cropland, and forest. The 0–30 m shoreline belt was the principal response zone, indicating that hydrologically driven land-cover replacement was concentrated in the immediate reservoir margin. MGWR showed spatially varying positive associations between change-patch characteristics, distance to permanent water, and elevation, but the low explanatory power requires these results to be interpreted as spatial diagnostics rather than causal attribution. The study links land-cover monitoring with reservoir water-level regulation, identifies priority shoreline belts, and provides spatial information for field verification and reservoir-margin management. Full article

Rapid urbanization and tourism-driven economic development have accelerated land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), reshaped landscape structure and increased landscape ecological risk (LER). Unraveling the spatiotemporal evolution of LER and its drivers is critical for regional ecological restoration and sustainable development. Using LUCC data for the Li River Basin (LRB) during 2000–2020, this study constructed an LER assessment model based on landscape pattern indices and employed an XGBoost–MGWR framework to identify key natural and socioeconomic drivers, as well as their nonlinear effects and spatial mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) forestland and cropland dominated the basin throughout the study period. Cropland and built-up land expanded, whereas forestland, grassland, and water areas contracted, with significant mutual conversions between forestland and cropland. (2) Relatively low- and middle-risk areas dominated the LER structure and exhibited a spatial pattern of “higher in the center and lower in the periphery”. Middle- and relatively high-risk areas expanded, while low and high-risk areas contracted, indicating a shift toward middle to relatively high risk levels. (3) Land-use intensity (LUI) and the digital elevation model (DEM) were the core drivers of LER change, while tourism intensity (TRI) showed an increasing influence over time. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional ecological management and sustainable development. Full article

The Source Region of the Yellow River (YRSR) is a key ecological barrier and a major water supply area, where water conservation is highly sensitive to ongoing climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC). However, the relative roles of CC and LUCC in regulating water conservation remain insufficiently quantified. In this study, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of water conservation in the YRSR and to disentangle the respective contributions of CC and LUCC using a fixing–changing approach, in which one driver is fixed and the other is varied across paired scenarios, followed by projections driven by CMIP6 forcing under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Water conservation showed a pronounced southeast–northwest contrast and increased over 2000–2019 (+4.56 mm/year). Attribution analysis revealed that CC dominated changes in water conservation, whereas LUCC exerted a weak net negative influence. Most increasing regions were precipitation-driven, whereas declining regions were concentrated where evapotranspiration and surface runoff increased concurrently. Under SSP2–4.5, water conservation is projected to continue increasing (+1.16 mm/year). In contrast, under SSP5–8.5, water conservation is projected to slightly decline (−0.26 mm/year). These findings highlight the primary role of climate in regulating water conservation in the YRSR and provide scientific support for adaptive watershed management under a changing climate. Full article

The Beijiang River Basin is an important ecological security protection area and water source supply area in Guangdong Province. This study assesses the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of watershed water quality based on on-site monitoring data and multivariate statistical analysis. The results indicate that PO₄³⁻P concentrations peak during the flood season, whereas pH, NO₃⁻-N, and total nitrogen (TN) reach their highest levels during the autumn normal-flow period. Spatially, water quality follows a gradient of upstream > downstream > midstream, with the midstream region identified as the primary zone of water quality degradation. Future non-point source (NPS) pollution characteristics in the Beijiang River Basin are influenced by land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change, showing significant variation across Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Under SSP126, precipitation increases at the slowest rate, with a peak annual value of 1599.77 mm during 2031–2040 and an average basin temperature of 19.61 °C. In contrast, SSP245 exhibits a marked increase in precipitation, reaching 1802.92 mm by 2061–2070. Under SSP585, annual precipitation rises to 2200.04 mm, with temperatures approximately 0.5 °C higher than those under SSP126. Simulations based on the improved ESP-PLUS model indicate that, under the natural development scenario (NDS), expansion of construction land increases urban runoff pollution by 32.97%. Under the economic development scenario (EDS), 1023 km² of ecological land is lost, significantly weakening pollution interception capacity, while construction land increases by 26.01%. In contrast, the coordinated development scenario (CDS) reduces ecological land loss by more than 60% compared to EDS through balanced development and conservation, thereby maintaining the basin’s pollutant purification function. Overall, future nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the watershed are projected to first decrease and then increase. Accordingly, differentiated management strategies are recommended, emphasizing the coordinated development of economic growth and ecological protection, and providing a scientific basis for controlling NPS pollution under changing climatic conditions. Full article

Anticipating the socio-environmental impacts of spatial planning strategies is a prerequisite for sustainable development pathways. Land change models are increasingly employed to evaluate the impacts of spatial planning on land use and land cover, and their subsequent effects on ecosystem services and environmental resources. Nevertheless, modelling land use and land cover changes, and their interactions, at a fine scale to preserve future landscape patterns has been identified as a key challenge in the land change science community. This paper presents an innovative process-based model—the FORecasting landscapE SCEnarios Model (FORESCEM)—designed to spatially simulate fine-scale future land use and land cover changes (LUCC) based on narratives developed through participatory or expert-driven approaches. By clearly distinguishing land covers and land uses as two different but related inputs, its conception and architecture enable the assessment of interactions among LUCC within human-managed landscapes. It relies on conventional functions and properties of LUCC models, and aims at completing the existing land change models. Applied on a French case study, the validation results demonstrate the model’s capability to replicate LUCC dynamics, effectively simulating trend-based and trend-breaking LUCC trajectories under contrasting scenarios. More broadly, this paper questions and discusses the validation of land change models used for simulating future LUCC. Full article