Search Results (28)

As a strategic material second only to grain, cotton serves both as a vital agricultural commodity and a key industrial crop. With the increasing frequency of global shocks and the deepening financialization of commodity markets, price linkages among major international cotton futures markets have strengthened. Consequently, in addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, cross-border price transmission has become a significant determinant of cotton pricing. This study employs daily closing prices of China’s cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, and U.S. cotton futures from 1 September 2017 to 31 March 2025 to examine the spillover effects among these three futures markets using time series models. The results reveal that U.S. cotton futures have dominated the Chinese cotton-related futures markets even prior to the onset of trade tensions, with strong domestic market comovements. However, both the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly weakened price co-movements while intensifying volatility spillovers. Although these external shocks enhanced the relative independence of China’s cotton yarn futures and modestly increased China’s pricing influence, U.S. cotton futures have consistently maintained their central role in price discovery. Full article

Grounded in the theory of new economic geography, this research develops a comprehensive theoretical framework to examine the spatial interaction mechanisms between the Green Finance Index and carbon emissions. Employing a range of econometric techniques—including three-dimensional kernel density estimation, spatial quantile regression, bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the spatial linkage equation model—the dynamic evolution, spatial pattern shifts, and mutual influences of green finance and carbon emissions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2003 to 2022 are systematically assessed. The findings indicate that (1) both carbon emissions and the Green Finance Index have experienced a trajectory of continuous growth, phased decline, and structural optimization, accompanied by a gradual shift in the regional center of gravity from coastal economic zones towards resource-intensive and traditional industry-concentrated areas; (2) significant spatial clustering is evident for both green finance and carbon emissions, demonstrating a strong spatial correlation and regional synergy effects; (3) a persistent negative spatial correlation exists between green finance and carbon emissions; and (4) green finance exerts a stable negative spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions, suggesting that the influence of green finance extends beyond localities to adjacent regions through spatial externalities, manifesting pronounced spatial transmission and linkage characteristics. By unveiling the bidirectional spatial association between green finance and carbon emissions, this study highlights the pivotal role of green finance in driving regional low-carbon transitions. The results provide theoretical insights for optimizing green finance policies within the Yellow River Basin and offer valuable international references for similar regional low-carbon development initiatives. Full article

This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) among Latin American economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—and significant international regions, including the United States, Europe, and Japan, as well as a global EPU index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data, this study reveals the evolving spillover effects and dependencies capturing how uncertainty in one market can transmit across others on both regional and global scales. The findings highlight the significant impact of external EPU, particularly from the U.S. and global EPU sources on Latin America, positioning it as a primary recipient of international uncertainty. These results underscore the need for Latin American economies to adopt resilience strategies—such as trade diversification and regional cooperation—to mitigate vulnerabilities to global shocks. This study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms of economic uncertainty transmission, guiding policymakers in developing coordinated responses to reduce the effects of external volatility and foster regional economic stability. Full article

The issue of non-performing loans (NPLs) in a bank’s portfolio is important for a bank’s stability and sustainability. Their increased presence indicates a potential worsening of the economy and a lower quality of the bank’s assets. We estimated determinants of non-performing loans in the Eurozone for quarterly data 2015–2020. The results confirmed spatial spillover effects within Eurozone countries, which means that when a shock happens in one country in the Eurozone, it will also affect the other economies of the Eurozone area. Based on the Hausman test, a fixed-effects model was chosen as appropriate and showed that bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants significantly affect NPLs in these economies. In relation to previous studies that dealt with this issue, a co-integration analysis was introduced. A significant impact of return on assets, return on equity, and the loan-to-deposit ratio, as well as the gross domestic product, inflation, and exchange rate on NPLs in the short run and long run, was confirmed using a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Bank management should customize credit policy based on both internal and external conditions to improve their performance, focusing on enhancing profitability and maintaining a lower loan-to-deposit ratio to reduce NPLs. The research suggests that a higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is associated with fewer NPLs, while inflation uncertainty and a volatile exchange rate can increase NPLs, highlighting the importance of adjusting strategies to the macroeconomic landscape. Full article

An ambitious per capita GDP target has been envisioned by the Chinese government since 2020 to project its sustainable economic growth rate by 2035. Can China fully achieve its goal? This is a question worth investigating. By inserting relevant TABLO modules of the final goods trade, the intermediate goods trade, and factor-strengthening technology spillovers, along with technology absorption thresholds effects of the global value chain, this study builds a global recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model on the basis of GTAP-RD. This approach enables us to consider total factor productivity (TFP) development through the “dual circulation” system, which was pointed out by the Chinese government as the only way for further growth. We simulate China’s technological progress under eight scenarios and use the latest GTAP Version 11 production and trade data (released in April 2023) for 141 countries and regions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) If China maintains its trade opening policy, the 2035 vision goal can be achieved, with external circulation being more important than internal circulation. (2) The economic growth impacts of external and internal circulation function relatively independently. FDI offers a somewhat stronger synergistic effect on intermediate goods trade compared to final goods trade and consumption. (3) We find that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is the most important strategic partner for China. (4) FDI is not an effective way to lift the productive services sector’s TFP, and it is more realistic for China to open up the productive services market more widely. (5) China–US decoupling has an enormous global impact, and the United States is always the country that loses the most, with Europe being the group of countries that benefits when there is a large increase in TFP in the US. This study is entirely original in terms of its model structure, simulations, scenarios, and shocks. It aims to fill the gap of extending the application of the CGE model to specific issues, thereby making contributions and supplements to the three theories discussed in the article too. The limitation of this paper lies in the CGE linear description feature, which is concise and elegant and has the characteristics of extrapolation and long-term absorption of disturbances. However, it tends to overlook the randomness, non-convergence, and significant structural disturbances that may occur in future reality. Full article

As an important part of urban vitality, street vitality is an external manifestation of street economic prosperity and is affected by the built environment and the surrounding street vitality. However, existing research on the formation mechanism of street vitality focuses only on the built environment itself, ignoring the spatial spillover effect on street vitality. This study uses 5290 street segments in Shenzhen as examples. Utilizing geospatial and other multisource big data, this study creates spatial weight matrices at varying distances based on different living circle ranges. By combining the panel threshold model (PTM) and the spatial panel Durbin model (SPDM), this study constructs a spatial autoregressive threshold model to explore the spatial nonlinear effects of street vitality, considering various spatial weight matrices and thresholds of construction intensity and functional diversity. Our results show the following: (1) Street vitality exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, which gradually weaken as the living circle range expands (Moran indices are 0.178***, 0.160***, and 0.145*** for the 500 m, 1000 m, and 1500 m spatial weight matrices, respectively). (2) Construction intensity has a threshold, which is 0.1466 under spatial matrices of different distances. Functional diversity has two thresholds: 0.6832 and 2.2065 for the 500 m spatial weight matrix, and 0.6832 and 1.4325 for the 1000 m matrices, and 0.6832 and 1.2724 for 1500 m matrices. (3) As an international metropolis, street accessibility in Shenzhen has a significant and strong positive impact on its street vitality. This conclusion provides stakeholders with spatial patterns that influence street vitality, offering a theoretical foundation to further break down barriers to street vitality. Full article

The global digitization trend provides a favorable development environment for the efficient acquisition of knowledge and technology. However, restrictions imposed by countries on digital trade have hindered this trend. This study is based on 60 sample countries to study the impact of the digital trade barrier (DTB) on the technology innovation efficiency (TIE) of each country and the pathways from 2014 to 2020. Research finds that DTB significantly inhibits TIE. Among the five different policy fields that form DTB, Infrastructure and Connecting DTB and Other DTB have the greatest negative impact on TIE. A mechanism analysis found that DTB increases the difficulty of acquiring knowledge spillover and the high cost of research and development, leading to the mismatch and low efficiency of innovation resources, ultimately leading to a reduction in technological innovation efficiency in various countries. Participating in international technological innovation networks and improving technological innovation capabilities have a moderating effect on the aforementioned negative impacts that is beneficial for the sustainable development of national technological innovation. Heterogeneity tests indicate that countries with weaker innovation capabilities, low- and middle-income countries, and countries that have not joined the OECD have a more significant negative impact. This study serves as an important reference for the government to adjust digital trade policies and guide the effective use of external resources for sustainable and efficient technological innovation. Full article

In recent years, the digital economy has shown great potential in regard to in driving social production and development. In the context of the construction of digital villages, the deep integration of the digital economy and agricultural development has injected new vitality into improving the quality and efficiency of agricultural production, becoming an important way to promote sustainable agricultural development. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, the study utilizes the entropy method to measure the level of the digital economy and the high-quality development of agriculture. Additionally, this study explores the impact and mechanism of the digital economy on the high-quality development of agriculture by the fixed effect, mediation effect, and the spatial spillover models. In summary, the digital economy can significantly drive the high-quality development of agriculture, which is still valid after considering endogeneity and robustness. Mechanistically, the rationalization of industrial structure is an important path for the digital economy in regard to driving the high-quality development of agriculture. Regionally, the dividends of the digital economy for high-quality agricultural development in the central and western regions are greater than those in the eastern region. Spatially, the digital economy has a spatial spillover effect on the high-quality development of agriculture. Moreover, it can promote the synergistic development of adjoining regions. Therefore, policy recommendations are made in terms of strengthening rural infrastructure, emphasizing the development of regional shortcomings, and strengthening internal with external regional linkages. Full article

The spatial correlation of high-quality development has emerged as a crucial approach to tackling economic polarization. This study assesses the level of high-quality development in China from 2006 to 2020, utilizing the new development concept. Social network analysis is employed to explore the spatial correlation mechanism of high-quality development. The quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) is used to analyze the driving factors that impact spatial correlation systems from both internal and external perspectives. The research indicates that China’s level of high-quality development has consistently improved between 2006 and 2020. The spatial correlation network has increasingly become more connected, while the eastern provinces, specifically Shanghai and Beijing, have a significant influence in the spatial correlation of high-quality development. However, the central and western provinces, such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, occupy peripheral positions in this network. Furthermore, clear spatial correlation and spillover effects are apparent among the dimensions. From an internal standpoint, innovation, greenness, openness, and sharing are the key factors that contribute to establishing a high-quality development network. In addition, external elements such as financial development, social consumption, and convenient transportation are interconnected in space, which promote the creation of a high-quality development network. Local protectionism and population concentration impede the establishment of a high-quality development network. Full article

Given the significant role of the Ningxia Urban Agglomeration along the Yellow River in reshaping the urban network and promoting coordinated development in the upper Yellow River region of China, this paper takes enterprise flow as the explicit manifestation of the regional urban network and interprets the evolution of the regional urban network structure and its influencing mechanisms through the different types of enterprise flow. The results indicate the following: (1) The external network is primarily focused on outflow investments towards North China, East China, and Northwest China. The overall inflow sources form a multi-origin structure dominated by North China and East China. Jinfeng and Xingqing serve as core hubs for enterprise exports in the external network and destinations for incoming enterprises. However, in terms of productive manufacturing connections, there is a spatial organizational pattern driven by multiple cities. (2) In the internal network, there is a concentric connection structure centered around Jinfeng and Xingqing. The productive service connections are relatively active, while the productive manufacturing connections are relatively concentrated between Jinfeng, Xingqing, Ningdong, and Lingwu. (3) In the external network, the main feature is the absorption of external elements to foster development momentum. In the internal network, Jinfeng and Xingqing serve as the contact and radiation sources, influencing various nodes. However, the driving capacity is weak. (4) The market demand and coordinated development both demonstrate significant promoting effects on the connections within the external and internal networks. The sluggish adjustment and transformation of the regional industrial structure resulted in a temporary negative inhibitory effect on the development of transformation. The negative impact of urban investment activities and the positive impact of government management are reflected within the internal network. (5) Improvements in urban management and service functions as well as external borrowing can promote connection in different networks. However, borrowing economic activity can have a negative impact in different networks. (6) Industrial agglomeration can promote enterprise connections in different networks and generate spatial spillover effects. Full article

The influence of recent global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war on the variability of major macroeconomic trends not only shows synchronized behavior across economies but also induces similar policy responses to counter these shocks. The purpose of this article is to explore the transmission of inflation among the G20 economies and evaluate its contribution to domestic inflation. To this end, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover approach. The results that emerge from unconditional analysis reveal stark dissimilarities in inflation spillover patterns between advanced and emerging economies. Advanced economies are subject to higher spillover rates and thereby more exposed to global shocks compared to their emerging counterparts. Inflation in emerging countries is mainly derived from idiosyncratic shocks, while global shocks have only a modest influence on domestic inflation. In addition, bilateral spillovers among the G20 members show that the average pairwise directional spillovers between emerging economies are lower compared to advanced economies. The results pertaining to the spillover dynamics, on the other hand, show that total inflation spillover has a clear upward trend, indicating that the overall interconnectedness between G20 countries is increasing over time. Moreover, the estimates of spillover dynamics show a growing influence of received inflation spillovers from external shocks in both advanced and emerging economies. Policymakers in advanced economies are expected to respond to global shocks to mitigate the influence of spillovers, which is essential for economies that display high spillovers and turn out to be net receivers of shocks. However, public agencies in emerging economies should concentrate more on internal shocks to control inflation while not ignoring global shocks. Full article

The purpose of the coordinated development of urbanization is to achieve the coordination of the internal subsystems of urbanization and the spatial coordination within the region. The coordinated development level of urbanization and its spatial effect are affected by many factors. Based on the influence mechanism of coordinated development of urbanization, in this study, the evaluation index system of coordinated development of urbanization and the analysis of influencing factors are constructed respectively. The coupling coordination model, fixed effect model and spatial lag model are used to analyze the coordinated development level and influencing factors of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the changes of influencing factors before and after the spatial effects are compared. The results are as follows: although the coordinated development level of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a trend of increasing year by year, the spatial differentiation phenomenon is becoming more and more obvious. In this process, the internal and external influencing factors of coordinated development of urbanization play a decisive role. In addition, after the spatial effect is included, the significance level of the influencing factors has changed, and the promotion effect on the coordinated development of urbanization is reduced. The performance is as follows: there is insufficient population transfer and employment among regions, low spatial spillover effect of economic development, strong dependence on land finance, expansion of habitat destruction and low degree of governance coordination, imbalance between public resource allocation and public service supply, lack of unified market-oriented environment and strong government intervention. The key points of future policies and reforms are as follows: under the guidance of the national strategic thinking, we should deepen the reform of the administrative system of the government, actively break through the institutional obstacles restricting the coordinated development of urbanization, continuously optimize the state of the urbanization system and form a joint force of coordinated development. Full article

This study tests the performance of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) on corporate innovation and the mediating effect of internal control effectiveness and analyst coverage on this relationship, by using data on China’s A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2020. The results show that ESG performance significantly improves innovation quantity, measured by the number of authorized invention patents, and innovation quality, measured by the number of patent citations. The internal and external mechanism tests show that the quantity and quality improvement effect of ESG performance on corporate innovation is dependent on effective internal controls and adequate analyst coverage. The results of the heterogeneity analysis show that improvement in the quality of enterprise-driven innovation is primarily due to knowledge spillover into the domestic market. The additional analysis suggests that the promoting effect is more obvious when the chief executive officer (CEO) serves as a board chairman, the corporation belongs to non-state-owned and large-scale enterprises, the industry in which the market competition is higher, and the corporation is located in a general city. This study provides a foundation for developing a better ESG valuation theory to assist management and investors in making better decisions to improve business performance and investment returns. Full article

Environmental regulation is an effective environmental policy tool, which can balance the interests of the government, enterprises, and the public and can effectively address the internalization of environmental externalities. The digital economy has emerged as a brand-new force for the advancement of high-quality economic development. In order to successfully come true to high-quality economic development based on coordinated development of environmental protection and economic growth, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate whether environmental regulation promotes high-quality economic development from a digital economy perspective. This paper empirically analyzed the impact of environmental regulation on high-quality economic development in 236 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2019, using the mediation effect model, threshold regression model, and spatial Durbin model. The results demonstrated that environmental regulation has a significant positive effect on the general high-quality economic development. Specifically, formal environmental regulation has a positive nonlinear effect with decreasing marginal effect on high-quality economic development, whereas informal environmental regulation has a positive nonlinear effect with increasing marginal effects. The digital economy is an important path for environmental regulation to strengthen high-quality economic development. Environmental regulation and the digital economy jointly promote high-quality economic development. In spatial effects, formal environmental regulation has a negative spatial spillover effect on high-quality economic development, whereas informal environmental regulation has a positive spatial spillover effect. Based on these conclusions, it is proposed that the government should actively develop and strengthen the interaction mechanism between formal and informal environmental regulation, enhance the integration of digital platforms and environmental regulation, and develop a coordinated development mechanism for the environment and economy across regions. Full article

Fiscal decentralization and green innovation are important to a country’s economic progress, but the externalities of increased pollution as a result of a rise in the energy used and economic growth must not be overlooked. The destruction of the environment presents a serious threat to human existence. South Africa, like several nations, has been working on reducing its dependence on fossil fuels such as coal by utilizing modern energy-efficient technologies that allow to establish a more carbon-neutral economy. Several attempts have been made to identify the major sources of environmental deterioration. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework from 1960 to 2020, this study aims to check empirically the effect of fiscal decentralization (FD), green technological innovation (GI), trade openness (OPEN), population size (POP), per capita GDP (GDP), per capita GDP squared (GDP²), institutional quality (INS), and energy consumption (EC) on carbon emissions (CO₂) in South Africa, as given its fast economic progress the country is facing problems with CO₂ emission. The recently developed novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-simulations framework has been used. The outcomes of the analysis indicate that (i) FD, GI, and INS improve environmental sustainability in both the short and long run; (ii) OPEN deteriorates environmental quality in the long run, although it is environmentally friendly in the short run; (iii) per capita GDP increases CO₂ emissions, whereas its square contributes to lower it, thus validating the presence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis; (iii) POP and EC contribute to environmental deterioration in both the short and long run; and (iv) FD, GI, OPEN, POP, GDP, GDP², INS, and EC Granger cause CO₂ in the medium, long, and short run, suggesting that these variables are important to influence environmental sustainability. In light of our empirical evidence, this paper suggests that the international teamwork necessary to lessen carbon emissions is immensely critical to solve the growing trans-boundary environmental decay and other associated spillover consequences. Moreover, it is important to explain responsibilities at different tiers of government to effectively meet the objectives of low CO₂ emissions and energy-saving fiscal expenditure functions. Full article