Search Results (15)

With the advancement of battery technology and the promotion of the “dual carbon” policy, electric vehicles (EVs) have been widely used in industrial, commercial, and civil fields, and the charging infrastructure of highway service areas across the country has also shown a rapid development trend. However, the charging load of electric vehicles in highway scenarios exhibits strong randomness and uncertainty. It is affected by multiple factors such as traffic flow, state of charge (SOC), and user charging behavior, and it is difficult to accurately model it through traditional mathematical models. This paper proposes a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMMC) simulation method to construct a charging load prediction model with spatiotemporal coupling characteristics. The model hierarchically models features such as traffic flow, SOC, and charging behavior through a hierarchical structure to reduce interference between dimensions; by constructing a Markov chain that converges to the target distribution and an inter-layer transfer mechanism, the load change process is deduced layer by layer, thereby achieving a more accurate charging load prediction. Comparative experiments with mainstream methods such as ARIMA, BP neural networks, random forests, and LSTM show that the HMMC model has higher prediction accuracy in highway scenarios, significantly reduces prediction errors, and improves model stability and interpretability. Full article

Traditional Underwater Acoustic Communication (UAC) typically assumes static or slowly varying channels over short observation periods and models multipath amplitude fluctuations with single-state statistical distributions. However, field measurements in shallow-water high-speed mobile scenarios reveal that the combined effects of rapid platform motion and dynamic environments induce multi-scale time-varying amplitude characteristics. These include distance-dependent attenuation, fluctuations in average energy, and rapid random variations. This observation directly challenges traditional single-state models and wide-sense stationary assumptions. To address this, we propose a multi-scale time-varying multipath amplitude model. Using singular spectrum analysis, we decompose amplitude sequences into hierarchical components: large-scale components modeled via acoustic propagation physics; medium-scale components characterized by Hidden Markov Models; and small-scale components described by zero-mean Gaussian distributions. Building on this model, we further develop a time-varying impulse response simulation framework validated with experimental data. The results demonstrate superior performance over conventional single-state distribution and autoregressive models in statistical distribution matching, temporal dynamics representation, and communication performance testing. The model effectively characterizes non-stationary time-varying channels, supporting high-precision modeling and simulation for mobile UAC systems. Full article

Indonesia faces significant challenges in meeting food security targets due to rapid agricultural land loss, with approximately 1.22 million hectares of rice fields converted between 1990 and 2022. Therefore, this study developed a prediction model for the loss of rice fields by 2030, incorporating land productivity attributes, specifically rice cropping intensity/RCI, using geospatial technology—a novel method with a resolution of approximately 10 m for quantifying ecosystem service (ES) impacts. Land use/land cover data from Landsat images (2013, 2020, 2024) were classified using the Random Forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine. The prediction model was developed using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Cellular Automata (MLP-NN Markov-CA) algorithms. Additionally, time series Sentinel-1A satellite imagery was processed using K-means and a hierarchical clustering analysis to map rice fields and their RCI. The validation process confirmed high model robustness, with an MLP-NN Markov-CA accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 83.90% and 0.91, respectively. The present study, which was conducted in Indramayu Regency (West Java), predicted that 1602.73 hectares of paddy fields would be lost within 2020–2030, specifically 980.54 hectares (61.18%) and 622.19 hectares (38.82%) with 2 RCI and 1 RCI, respectively. This land conversion directly threatens ES, resulting in a projected loss of 83,697.95 tons of rice production, which indicates a critical degradation of service provisioning. The findings provide actionable insights for land use planning to reduce agricultural land conversion while outlining the urgency of safeguarding ES values. The adopted method is applicable to regions with similar characteristics. Full article

Background: Examining lung cancer (LC) cases in Virginia (VA) is essential due to its significant public health implications. By studying demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, this paper aims to provide insights into the underlying drivers of LC prevalence in the state adjusted for spatial associations at the zipcode level. Methods: We model the available VA zipcode-level LC counts via (spatial) Poisson and negative binomial regression models, taking into account missing covariate data, zipcode-level spatial association and allow for overdispersion. Under latent Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) assumptions, our Bayesian hierarchical model powered by Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) considers simultaneous (spatial) imputation of all missing covariates through elegant prediction. The spatial random effect across zip codes follows a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) prior. Results: Zip codes with elevated smoking indices demonstrated a corresponding increase in LC counts, underscoring the well-established connection between smoking and LC. Additionally, we observed a notable correlation between higher Social Deprivation Index (SDI) scores and increased LC counts, aligning with the prevalent pattern of heightened LC prevalence in regions characterized by lower income and education levels. On the demographic level, our findings indicated higher LC counts in zip codes with larger White and Black populations (with Whites having higher prevalence than Blacks), lower counts in zip codes with higher Hispanic populations (compared to non-Hispanics), and higher prevalence among women compared to men. Furthermore, zip codes with a larger population of elderly people (age ≥ 65 years) exhibited higher LC prevalence, consistent with established national patterns. Conclusions: This comprehensive analysis contributes to our understanding of the complex interplay of demographic and socioeconomic factors influencing LC disparities in VA at the zip code level, providing valuable information for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation. Implementation code is available at GitHub. Full article

Image segmentation is an important task in image processing and analysis but due to the same ground object having different spectra and different ground objects having similar spectra, segmentation, particularly on high-resolution remote sensing images, can be significantly challenging. Since the spectral distribution of high-resolution remote sensing images can have complex characteristics (e.g., asymmetric or heavy-tailed), an innovative image segmentation algorithm is proposed based on the hierarchical Student’s-t mixture model (HSMM) and spatial constraints with adaptive smoothing. Considering the complex distribution of spectral intensities, the proposed algorithm constructs the HSMM to accurately build the statistical model of the image, making more reasonable use of the spectral information and improving segmentation accuracy. The component weight is defined by the attribute probability of neighborhood pixels to overcome the influence of image noise and make a simple and easy-to-implement structure. To avoid the effects of artificially setting the smoothing coefficient, the gradient optimization method is used to solve the model parameters, and the smoothing coefficient is optimized through iterations. The experimental results suggest that the proposed HSMM can accurately model asymmetric, heavy-tailed, and bimodal distributions. Compared with traditional segmentation algorithms, the proposed algorithm can effectively overcome noise and generate more accurate segmentation results for high-resolution remote sensing images. Full article

In this paper, we propose a structured additive regression (STAR) model for modeling the occurrence of a disease in fields or nurseries. The methodological approach involves a Gaussian field (GF) affected by a spatial process represented by an approximation to a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF). This modeling allows the building of maps with prediction probabilities regarding the presence of a disease in plants using Bayesian kriging. The advantage of this modeling is its computational benefit when compared with known spatial hierarchical models and with the Bayesian inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Inference through the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach facilitates the handling of large datasets in excellent computation times. Our approach allows the evaluation of different sampling strategies, from which we obtain inferences and prediction maps with similar behaviour to those obtained when we consider all subjects in the study population. The analysis of the different sampling strategies allows us to recognize the relevance of spatial components in the studied phenomenon. We demonstrate how Bayesian kriging can incorporate sources of uncertainty associated with the prediction parameters, which leads to more realistic and accurate estimation of the uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology with samplings of Citrus macrophylla affected by the tristeza virus (CTV) grown in a nursery. Full article

In this paper, a hierarchical probabilistic graphical model is proposed to tackle joint classification of multiresolution and multisensor remote sensing images of the same scene. This problem is crucial in the study of satellite imagery and jointly involves multiresolution and multisensor image fusion. The proposed framework consists of a hierarchical Markov model with a quadtree structure to model information contained in different spatial scales, a planar Markov model to account for contextual spatial information at each resolution, and decision tree ensembles for pixelwise modeling. This probabilistic graphical model and its topology are especially fit for application to very high resolution (VHR) image data. The theoretical properties of the proposed model are analyzed: the causality of the whole framework is mathematically proved, granting the use of time-efficient inference algorithms such as the marginal posterior mode criterion, which is non-iterative when applied to quadtree structures. This is mostly advantageous for classification methods linked to multiresolution tasks formulated on hierarchical Markov models. Within the proposed framework, two multimodal classification algorithms are developed, that incorporate Markov mesh and spatial Markov chain concepts. The results obtained in the experimental validation conducted with two datasets containing VHR multispectral, panchromatic, and radar satellite images, verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework. The proposed approach is also compared to previous methods that are based on alternate strategies for multimodal fusion. Full article

Because of the stochastic nature of wind turbines, the output power management of wind power generation (WPG) is a fundamental challenge for the integration of wind energy systems into either power systems or microgrids (i.e., isolated systems consisting of local wind energy systems only) in operation and planning studies. In general, a wind energy system can refer to both one wind farm consisting of a number of wind turbines and a given number of wind farms sited at the area in question. In power systems (microgrid) planning, a WPG should be quantified for the determination of the expected power flows and the analysis of the adequacy of power generation. Concerning this operation, the WPG should be incorporated into an optimal operation decision process, as well as unit commitment and economic dispatch studies. In both cases, the probabilistic investigation of WPG leads to a multivariate uncertainty analysis problem involving correlated random variables (the output power of either wind turbines that constitute wind farm or wind farms sited at the area in question) that follow different distributions. This paper advances a multivariate model of WPG for a wind farm that relies on indexed semi-Markov chains (ISMC) to represent the output power of each wind energy system in question and a copula function to reproduce the spatial dependencies of the energy systems’ output power. The ISMC model can reproduce long-term memory effects in the temporal dependence of turbine power and thus understand, as distinct cases, the plethora of Markovian models. Using copula theory, we incorporate non-linear spatial dependencies into the model that go beyond linear correlations. Some copula functions that are frequently used in applications are taken into consideration in the paper; i.e., Gumbel copula, Gaussian copula, and the t-Student copula with different degrees of freedom. As a case study, we analyze a real dataset of the output powers of six wind turbines that constitute a wind farm situated in Poland. This dataset is compared with the synthetic data generated by the model thorough the calculation of three adequacy indices commonly used at the first hierarchical level of power system reliability studies; i.e., loss of load probability (LOLP), loss of load hours (LOLH) and loss of load expectation (LOLE). The results will be compared with those obtained using other models that are well known in the econometric field; i.e., vector autoregressive models (VAR). Full article

The extraction of buildings has been an essential part of the field of LiDAR point clouds processing in recent years. However, it is still challenging to extract buildings from huge amount of point clouds due to the complicated and incomplete structures, occlusions and local similarities between different categories in a complex environment. Taking the urban and campus scene as examples, this paper presents a versatile and hierarchical semantic-based method for building extraction using LiDAR point clouds. The proposed method first performs a series of preprocessing operations, such as removing ground points, establishing super-points and using them as primitives for subsequent processing, and then semantically labels the raw LiDAR data. In the feature engineering process, considering the purpose of this article is to extract buildings, we tend to choose the features extracted from super-points that can describe building for the next classification. There are a portion of inaccurate labeling results due to incomplete or overly complex scenes, a Markov Random Field (MRF) optimization model is constructed for postprocessing and segmentation results refinement. Finally, the buildings are extracted from the labeled points. Experimental verification was performed on three datasets in different scenes, our results were compared with the state-of-the-art methods. These evaluation results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for extracting buildings from LiDAR point clouds in multiple environments. Full article

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed as latent Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF). The representation as a GMRF allows the associated software R-INLA to estimate the posterior marginals in a fraction of the time as typical Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. INLA can be extended by means of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to increase the number of models that it can fit to conditional latent GMRF. In this paper, we review the use of BMA with INLA and propose a new example on spatial econometrics models. Full article

A digital elevation model (DEM) can be obtained by removing ground objects, such as buildings, in a digital surface model (DSM) generated by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) system. However, the imaging mechanism will cause unreliable DSM areas such as layover and shadow in the building areas, which seriously affect the elevation accuracy of the DEM generated from the DSM. Driven by above problem, this paper proposed a novel DEM reconstruction method. Coherent Markov random field (CMRF) was first used to segment unreliable DSM areas. With the help of coherence coefficients and residue information provided by the InSAR system, CMRF has shown better segmentation results than traditional traditional Markov random field (MRF) which only use fixed parameters to determine the neighborhood energy. Based on segmentation results, the hierarchical adaptive surface fitting (with gradually changing the grid size and adaptive threshold) was set up to locate the non-ground points. The adaptive surface fitting was superior to the surface fitting-based method with fixed grid size and threshold of height differences. Finally, interpolation based on an inverse distance weighted (IDW) algorithm combining coherence coefficient was performed to reconstruct a DEM. The airborne InSAR data from the Institute of Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences has been researched, and the experimental results show that our method can filter out buildings and identify natural terrain effectively while retaining most of the terrain features. Full article

Aerial laser scanning or photogrammetric point clouds are often noisy at building boundaries. In order to produce regularized polygons from such noisy point clouds, this study proposes a hierarchical regularization method for the boundary points. Beginning with detected planar structures from raw point clouds, two stages of regularization are employed. In the first stage, the boundary points of an individual plane are consolidated locally by shifting them along their refined normal vector to resist noise, and then grouped into piecewise smooth segments. In the second stage, global regularities among different segments from different planes are softly enforced through a labeling process, in which the same label represents parallel or orthogonal segments. This is formulated as a Markov random field and solved efficiently via graph cut. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated for extracting 2D footprints and 3D polygons of buildings in metropolitan area. The results reveal that the proposed method is superior to the state-of-art methods both qualitatively and quantitatively in compactness. The simplified polygons could fit the original boundary points with an average residuals of 0.2 m, and in the meantime reduce up to 90% complexities of the edges. The satisfactory performances of the proposed method show a promising potential for 3D reconstruction of polygonal models from noisy point clouds. Full article

This paper presents a novel multilook SAR image segmentation algorithm with an unknown number of clusters. Firstly, the marginal probability distribution for a given SAR image is defined by a Gamma mixture model (GaMM), in which the number of components corresponds to the number of homogeneous regions needed to segment and the spatial relationship among neighboring pixels is characterized by a Markov Random Field (MRF) defined by the weighting coefficients of components in GaMM. During the algorithm iteration procedure, the number of clusters is gradually reduced by merging two components until they are equal to one. For each fixed number of clusters, the parameters of GaMM are estimated and the optimal segmentation result corresponding to the number is obtained by maximizing the marginal probability. Finally, the number of clusters with minimum global energy defined as the negative logarithm of marginal probability is indicated as the expected number of clusters with the homogeneous regions needed to be segmented, and the corresponding segmentation result is considered as the final optimal one. The experimental results from the proposed and comparing algorithms for simulated and real multilook SAR images show that the proposed algorithm can find the real number of clusters and obtain more accurate segmentation results simultaneously. Full article

Pedestrian detection and human pose estimation are instructive for reconstructing a three-dimensional scenario and for robot navigation, particularly when large amounts of vision data are captured using various data-recording techniques. Using an unrestricted capture scheme, which produces occlusions or breezing, the information describing each part of a human body and the relationship between each part or even different pedestrians must be present in a still image. Using this framework, a multi-layered, spatial, virtual, human pose reconstruction framework is presented in this study to recover any deficient information in planar images. In this framework, a hierarchical parts-based deep model is used to detect body parts by using the available restricted information in a still image and is then combined with spatial Markov random fields to re-estimate the accurate joint positions in the deep network. Then, the planar estimation results are mapped onto a virtual three-dimensional space using multiple constraints to recover any deficient spatial information. The proposed approach can be viewed as a general pre-processing method to guide the generation of continuous, three-dimensional motion data. The experiment results of this study are used to describe the effectiveness and usability of the proposed approach. Full article

In this contribution, a hybrid multi-contextual Markov model for unsupervised near real-time flood detection in multi-temporal X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is presented. It incorporates scale-dependent, as well as spatio-temporal contextual information, into the classification scheme, by combining hierarchical marginal posterior mode (HMPM) estimation on directed graphs with noncausal Markov image modeling related to planar Markov random fields (MRFs). In order to increase computational performance, marginal posterior-based entropies are used for restricting the iterative bi-directional exchange of spatio-temporal information between consecutive images of a time sequence to objects exhibiting a low probability, to be classified correctly according to the HMPM estimation. The Markov models, originally developed for inference on regular graph structures of quadtrees and planar lattices, are adapted to the variable nature of irregular graphs, which are related to information driven image segmentation. Entropy based confidence maps, combined with spatio-temporal relationships of potentially inundated bright scattering vegetation to open water areas, are used for the quantification of the uncertainty in the labeling of each image element in flood possibility masks. With respect to accuracy and computational effort, experiments performed on a bi-temporal TerraSAR-X ScanSAR data-set from the Caprivi region of Namibia during flooding in 2009 and 2010 confirm the effectiveness of integrating hierarchical as well as spatio-temporal context into the labeling process, and of adapting the models to irregular graph structures. Full article