Search Results (235)

Simulating potential glacier collapses can provide crucial support for local disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. The Xiaomagou Glacier in the Amnye Machen Mountains, Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, has experienced five collapses in the past two decades. Field investigation and remote sensing observations indicate that the topography and bedrock characteristics of the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier, which is 3.5 km south of the Xiaomagou Glacier, are similar to those of the Xiaomagou Glacier. More importantly, the mass movement of the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier since 2018 closely resembles that of the Xiaomagou Glacier exhibited before its previous collapses. Therefore, in the context of rising temperatures, it is possible that the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier will collapse in the near future. Based on remote sensing imagery and the glacier’s surface elevation changes, we reconstructed the 2004 collapse process of the Xiaomagou Glacier via numerical simulation. The key parameters of the mass flow model were optimized based on the actual deposition area of the 2004 collapse. The model with optimized parameters was then used to simulate the potential Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier collapse. Two collapse scenarios were set for the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier. In Scenario 1, the lower half of the tongue detaches; in Scenario 2, the whole tongue detaches. Simulation results show that, in Scenario 1, the maximum mass flow depth is 72 m, the maximum mass flow speed is 51.6 m/s, and the deposition area is 5.40 × 10⁶ km²; in Scenario 2, the maximum mass flow depth is 75 m, the maximum mass flow speed is 59.7 m/s, and the deposition area is 6.32 × 10⁶ km². In both scenarios, the deposition area is much larger than that of the Xiaomagou Glacier 2004 collapse, which had a deposition area of 2.21 × 10⁶ km². The simulation results suggest that the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier collapse could devastate the pastures and township roads lying in front of the glacier, seriously affecting local transportation and livestock farming; furthermore, it may deposit in the Qinglong River, forming a large, dammed lake. At present, the Qushi’an No. 22 Glacier remains in an unstable state. It is crucial to strengthen monitoring of its surface morphology, flow speed, and elevation. Full article

Tropical glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change, with their mass balance influenced by temperature and precipitation, which affects the accumulation area. In this study, we developed an open-source tool to map the accumulation area of glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (1988–2023), using Landsat images, spectral indices, and the Otsu method. We analyzed trends and correlations between snow accumulation area, meteorological patterns from ERA5 data, and oscillation modes. The results were validated using field data and manual mapping. Greater discrepancies were observed in glaciers with debris cover or small clean glaciers (<1 km²). The Amazonian and Pacific sectors showed a significant trend in decreasing accumulation areas, with reductions of 8.99% and 10.24%, respectively, from 1988–1999 to 2010–2023. El Niño events showed higher correlations with snow accumulation, snowfall, and temperature during the wet season, indicating a stronger influence on the Pacific sector. The accumulation area was strongly anti-correlated with temperature and correlated with snowfall in both sectors at a 95% confidence level (α = 0.05). The highest correlations with meteorological parameters were observed during the dry season, suggesting that even minor changes in temperature or precipitation could significantly impact the accumulation area. Full article

Limited surface energy and mass flux data hinder the understanding of glacier retreat mechanisms on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Glaciers in the west Nyainqentanglha Range (WNR) supply meltwater to the densely populated Lhasa River basin (LRB) and Nam Co, the QTP’s second-largest endorheic lake. In this study, we used a glacier mass balance model based on the degree-day method (GMB-DDM) to understand the response of glacier changes to climate warming. The spatiotemporal variation in degree-day factors for ice (DDF_ice; plural form: DDFs_ice) was assessed to characterize the sensitivity of glacier melt to warming over 44 years in the WNR. Our results demonstrate that the GMB_DDM effectively captured the accelerated mass loss and regional heterogeneity of WNR glaciers from 2000 to 2020, particularly the intensified negative balance after 2014. Moreover, glacier ablation was more sensitive to warming in the WNR during 2000–2020 than 1976–2000, with DDF_ice increases of 21% ± 8% in the LRB and 31% ± 10% in the Nam Co basin (NCB). Increased precipitation during the ablation season and reduced glacier surface albedo can explain the increased sensitivity to warming during 2000–2020. These findings could support sustainable water resource management in the LRB, NCB, and the surrounding areas of the QTP. Full article

Glaciers, often regarded as “frozen reservoirs”, play a crucial role in replenishing numerous rivers in arid regions, contributing to ecological balance and managing river flow. Recently, the rapid shrinkage of the glaciers in the East Tianshan Mountains has affected the water quantity in the Karez system. However, studies on glacier changes in this region are limited, and recent data are scarce. This study utilizes annual Landsat composite images from 1990 to 2022 obtained via the Google Earth Engine (GEE). It utilizes a ratio threshold approach in conjunction with visual analysis to gather the glacier dataset specific to the Turpan–Hami region. The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is used to model the flowlines and mass balance of around 300 glaciers. The study analyzes the glacier change trends, distribution characteristics, and responses to climate factors in the Turpan–Hami region over the past 30 years. Additionally, future glacier changes through the end of the century are projected using CMIP6 climate data. The findings indicate that the following: (1) From 1990 to 2022, glaciers in the research area underwent considerable retreat. The total glacier area decreased from 204.04 ± 0.887 km² to 133.52 ± 0.742 km², a reduction of 70.52 km², representing a retreat rate of 34.56%. The number of glaciers also decreased from 304 in 1990 to 236 in 2022. The glacier length decreased by an average of 7.54 m·a⁻¹, with the average mass balance at −0.34 m w.e.·a⁻¹, indicating a long-term loss of glacier mass. (2) Future projections to 2100 indicate that under three climate scenarios, the area covered by glaciers could diminish by 89%, or 99%, or even vanish entirely. In the SSP585 scenario, glaciers are projected to nearly disappear by 2057. (3) Rising temperatures and solar radiation are the primary factors driving glacier retreat in the Turpan–Hami area. Especially under high emission scenarios, climate warming will accelerate the glacier retreat process. Full article

Glaciers worldwide are in retreat, and their meltwater can modulate mountain aquifers. We examined whether mass loss of the Juncal Norte Glacier (central Chile) has affected groundwater storage in the Juncal River basin between 1990 and 2022. Recession-curve modeling of daily streamflow shows no statistically significant trend in basin-scale groundwater reserves (τ = 0.06, p > 0.05). In contrast, glacier volume declined significantly (−3.8 hm³/yr, p < 0.05), and precipitation at the nearby Riecillos station fell sharply during the 2008–2017 megadrought (p < 0.05) but exhibited no significant change beforehand. Given the simultaneous decreases in meteoric inputs (rain + snow) and glacier mass, one would expect groundwater storage to decline; its observed stability therefore suggests that enhanced glacier-melt recharge may be temporarily offsetting drier conditions. Isotopic evidence from comparable Andean catchments supports such glacio-groundwater coupling, although time lags of months to years complicate detection with recession models alone. Hence, while our results do not yet demonstrate a direct glacier–groundwater link, they are consistent with the hypothesis that ongoing ice loss is buffering aquifer storage. Longer records and tracer studies are required to verify this mechanism and to inform sustainable water resources planning. Full article

During a research expedition to the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), eastern Nepal, in April–June 2024, local concern was expressed about the rapid development of meltwater ponds upon the terminus of the Kanchenjunga glacier since 2020, especially in terms of the possible formation of a large and potentially dangerous glacial lake. Our resultant study of the issue included informal interviews with local informants, comparison of time series satellite composite images acquired by Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and modeling of different lake development, outburst flood scenarios, and prospective downstream impacts. Assuming that the future glacial lake will be formed by the merging of present-day supraglacial ponds, filling the low-gradient area beneath the present-day glacier terminal complex, we estimated the potential volume of a Kanchenjunga proglacial lake to be 33 × 10⁶ m³. Potential mass movement-triggered outburst floods would travel downstream distances of almost 120 km even under the small magnitude scenario, and under the worst-case scenario would reach the Indo-Gangetic Plain and cross the border into India, exposing up to 90 buildings and 44 bridges. In response, we suggest that the lower Kanchenjunga glacier region be regularly monitored by both local communities and Kathmandu-based research entities over the next decade. The development of user-friendly early warning systems, hazard mapping and zoning programs, cryospheric hazards awareness building programs, and construction of locally appropriate flood mitigation measures are recommended. Finally, the continued development and refinement of the models presented here could provide governments and remote communities with a set of inexpensive and reliable tools capable of providing the basic information needed for communities to make informed decisions regarding hazard mitigation, adaptive, and/or preventive measures related to changing glaciers. Full article

Glacier meltwater influences streamflow and various activities in the western US. The Wind River Range (WRR) in Wyoming, which contains the largest glacial mass in the Rocky Mountains of the conterminous US, has been retreating since the Little Ice Age. This study examines long-term changes in WRR glaciers (>0.2 km²) over 1968–2019 and investigates their relationship with climatic and topographic factors. Using USGS topographic maps, satellite imagery, DEM datasets, and GPS surveys, we analyzed glacier area and surface elevation changes. Our results show a 19.2 ± 0.9% glacier area reduction from 1972 to 2019, with a 10.6 ± 0.3% decline from 2000–2019. Glacier thinning was most pronounced between 2000 and 2019 at −0.58 ± 0.11 m y⁻¹, with lower-elevation glaciers thinning faster. Small, south-facing glaciers retreated more rapidly, while slope effects were mixed. Increasing spring temperatures and a shift toward more spring precipitation falling as rain has likely exacerbated glacier loss since 2000. Such accelerated melting has significant implications for water availability and ecosystem health if warming continues, affecting agricultural, industrial, and recreational water use. Understanding these trends is key for future water resource management and ecosystem sustainability in the region. Full article

The Himalayan belt, formed due to the Cenozoic convergence between the Eurasian and Indian craton, acts as a storehouse of large amounts of strain, resulting in large earthquakes from the Western to the Eastern Himalayas. Glaciers also occur over a major portion of the high-altitude Himalayan region. The impact of earthquakes can be easily studied in the plains and plateaus with the help of well-distributed seismogram networks and these regions’ accessibility is helpful for field- and lab-based studies. However, earthquakes triggered close to high-altitude Himalayan glaciers are tough to investigate for the impact over glaciers and glacial deposits. In this study, we attempt to understand the impact of earthquakes on and around Himalayan glaciers in terms of vertical displacement and coherence change using space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Eight earthquake events of various magnitudes and hypocenter depths occurring in the vicinity of Himalayan glacial bodies were studied using C-band Sentinel1-A/B SAR data. Differential interferometric SAR (DInSAR) analysis is applied to capture deformation of the glacial surface potentially related to earthquake occurrence. Glacial displacement varies from −38.9 mm to −5.4 mm for the 2020 Tibet earthquake (M_w 5.7) and the 2021 Nepal earthquake (M_w 4.1). However, small glacial and ground patches processed separately for vertical displacements reveal that the glacial mass shows much greater seismic displacement than the ground surface. This indicates the possibility of the presence of potential site-specific seismicity amplification properties within glacial bodies. A reduction in co-seismic coherence around the glaciers is observed in some cases, indicative of possible changes in the glacial moraine deposits and/or vegetation cover. The effect of two different seismic events (the 2020 and 2021 Nepal earthquakes) with different hypocenter depths but with the same magnitude at almost equal distances from the glaciers is assessed; a shallow earthquake is observed to result in a larger impact on glacial bodies in terms of vertical displacement. Earthquakes may induce glacial hazards such as glacial surging, ice avalanches, and the failure of moraine-/ice-dammed glacial lakes. This research may be able to play a possible role in identifying areas at risk and provide valuable insights for the planning and implementation of measures for disaster risk reduction. Full article

A forty-year record (1984–2023) of glacier mass balance and areal extent measurement documented the decline and loss of the Ice Worm Glacier in the North Cascade Range, Washington. After a period of minor variations from 1944 to 1986, the glacier lost 83% of its area from 1986 to 2023 and had a cumulative mass loss of −31.5 m w.e. In 2023, the area at 32,000 m² and the majority of the ice thickness at 2–10 m was insufficient to generate movement. The bottom of the glacier was observed in all existing crevasse features, and stream channels in 2023 at depths of 2–10 m. An ice cave extended the length of the glacier in 2024 illustrating an ice thickness of less than 8 m. This glacier area loss has led to declining glacier runoff into Hyas Creek and the Cle Elum River. Full article

Temperate glaciers in the Kangri Karpo region of the southeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) have experienced significant ablation in recent decades, increasing the risk of glacier-related hazards and impacting regional water resources. However, the spatial and temporal pattern of mass loss in these glaciers remains inadequately quantified. In this study, we used ASTER L1A stereo images to construct a high-resolution elevation time series and provide a comprehensive spatial–temporal assessment of glacier elevation change from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that almost all glaciers have experienced rapid ablation, with an average surface elevation decrease of −18.35 ± 5.13 m, corresponding to a rate of −0.76 ± 0.21 m yr⁻¹. Glaciers in the region were divided into the northern and southern basins, with average rates of −0.79 ± 0.17 m yr⁻¹ and −0.72 ± 0.13 m yr⁻¹, respectively. A notable difference in acceleration trends between the two basins was observed, with the elevation rate increasing from −0.78 ± 0.17m yr⁻¹ to −1.04 ± 0.17 m yr⁻¹ and from −0.52 ± 0.13 m yr⁻¹ to −0.92 ± 0.13 m yr⁻¹, respectively. The seasonal cycle was identified in glacier surface elevation change, with an accumulation period from November to March followed by a prolonged ablation period. The seasonal amplitude decreased with elevation, with higher elevations exhibiting longer accumulation periods and less ablation. Correlation analysis with meteorological data indicated that higher summer temperatures and increased summer rainfall intensify elevation loss, while increased spring snowfall may reduce ablation. Our analysis highlights distinct variations in glacier elevation changes across different locations, elevations, and climatic conditions in the Kangri Karpo region, providing valuable insights into glacier responses to environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Full article

Supraglacial debris cover considerably influences sub-debris ablation patterns and the surface morphology of glaciers by modulating the land–atmosphere energy exchange. Understanding its spatial distribution and temporal variations is crucial for analyzing melting processes and managing downstream disaster mitigation efforts. In recent years, the overall slightly positive mass balance or stable state of eastern Pamir glaciers has been referred to as the “Pamir-Karakoram anomaly”. It is important to note that spatial heterogeneity in glacier change has drawn widespread research attention. However, research on the spatiotemporal changes in the debris cover in this region is completely nonexistent, which has led to an inadequate understanding of debris-covered glacier variations. To address this research gap, this study employed Landsat remote sensing images within the Google Earth Engine platform, leveraging the Random Forest algorithm to classify the supraglacial debris cover. The classification algorithm integrates spectral features from Landsat images and derived indices (NDVI, NDSI, NDWI, and BAND RATIO), supplemented by auxiliary factors such as slope and aspect. By extracting the supraglacial debris cover from 1994 to 2024, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and investigated the underlying drivers of debris cover changes from the perspective of mass conservation. By 2024, the area of supraglacial debris in eastern Pamir reached 258.08 ± 20.65 km², accounting for 18.5 ± 1.55% of the total glacier area. It was observed that the Kungey Mountain region demonstrated the largest debris cover rate. Between 1994 and 2024, while the total glacier area decreased by −2.57 ± 0.70%, the debris-covered areas expanded upward at a rate of +1.64 ± 0.10% yr⁻¹. The expansion of debris cover is driven by several factors in the context of global warming. The rising temperature resulted in permafrost degradation, slope destabilization, and intensified weathering on supply slopes, thereby augmenting the debris supply. Additionally, the steep supply slope in the study area facilitates the rapid deposition of collapsed debris onto glacier surfaces, with frequent avalanche events accelerating the mobilization of rock fragments. Full article

The glaciers of the Himalayas are essential for water resources in South Asia and the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, but they are undergoing accelerated mass loss, posing risks to water security and increasing glacial hazards. This study examines long-term changes in the geometry and flow speeds of both land- and lake-terminating glaciers at the headwaters of the Yarlung Zangbo River, using field measurements, remote sensing, and numerical ice flow modeling. We observed significant heterogeneity in glacier behaviors across the region, with notable differences between glacier terminus types and even among neighboring glaciers of the same type. Between 1974 and 2020, glacier thinning and mass loss rates doubled in the early 21st century ($-0.57\pm 0.05$ m w.e. a⁻¹) compared to 1974–2000 ($-0.24\pm 0.11$ m w.e. a⁻¹). While lake-terminating glaciers generally experienced more rapid retreat and mass loss, the land-terminating N241 Glacier displayed comparable mass loss rates. Lake-terminating glaciers retreated by over 1000 m between 1990 and 2019, while land-terminating glaciers retreated by less than 750 m. The ITS_LIVE velocity dataset showed higher and more variable flow speeds in lake-terminating glaciers. Numerical modeling from 2000 to 2017 revealed divergent changes in flow regimes, with lake-terminating glaciers generally experiencing acceleration, while land-terminating glaciers showed either a slowing down or stable flow behavior. Our findings underscore the significant role of lake-terminating glaciers in contributing to ice mass loss, emphasizing the need for advanced glacier models that incorporate dynamic processes such as frontal calving and longitudinal coupling. Full article

Glacier movement is an important indicator of climate change, reflecting the quality and state changes in glacier migration and mass balance in the context of global warming. Although accurately estimating glacier surface flow velocity is crucial for various applications, achieving this is challenging due to factors such as low temporal correlation and high noise effects. This paper presents the pixel offset tracking (POT) technology based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for glacier velocity monitoring, with enhanced cross-correlation matching window and noise suppression approaches. In particular, a noise suppression optimization method and a matching window optimization index suitable for wide-area glacier velocity monitoring are proposed. The inter-annual wide-area two-dimensional plane flow velocity of glaciers in the Svalbard archipelago was obtained by using a total of seven Sentinel-1 data sets from two orbits covering the entire Svalbard archipelago in 2021. The results indicate that 25 large glaciers in Svalbard destabilized in 2021, with a peak flow velocity of 6.18 m/day. At the same time, the influence of climate, topography, and other factors on glacier surface velocity is discussed. The wide-area glacier velocity monitoring method and its application demonstrated in this paper will serve as a valuable reference for studying glacier migration in the Arctic Svalbard archipelago and for other large-scale wide-area deformation monitoring efforts. Full article

The local or overall mass balance of a glacier is significantly influenced by the spatial heterogeneity of its overlying debris thickness. Accurately estimating the debris thickness of glaciers is essential for understanding their hydrological processes and the impact of climate change. This study focuses on the Koxkar Glacier in the Tian Shan Mountains, using debris thickness data to compare the accuracy of three commonly used approaches for estimating the spatial distribution of debris thickness. The three measurement approaches include two empirical relationships between the land surface temperature (LST) and debris thickness approaches, empirical relationship approach 1 and empirical relationship approach 2, and the energy balance of debris approach. The analysis also explores the potential influence of topographic factors on the debris distribution. By incorporating temperature data from the debris profiles, this study examines the applicability of each approach and identifies areas for possible improvement. The results indicate that (1) all three debris thickness estimation approaches effectively capture the distribution characteristics of glacial debris, although empirical relationship approach 2 outperforms the others in describing the spatial patterns; (2) the accuracy of each approach varies depending on the debris thickness, with the energy balance of debris approach being most accurate for debris less than 50 cm thick, while empirical relationship approach 1 performs better for debris thicker than 50 cm and empirical relationship approach 2 demonstrates the highest overall accuracy; and (3) topographic factors, particularly the elevation, significantly influence the accuracy of debris thickness estimates. Furthermore, the empirical relationships between the LST and debris thickness require field data and focus solely on the surface temperature, neglecting other influencing factors. The energy balance of debris approach is constrained by its linear assumption of the temperature profile, which is only valid within a specific range of debris thickness; beyond this range, it significantly underestimates the values. These findings provide evidence-based support for improving remote-sensing methods for debris thickness estimation. Full article

Arctic tidewater glaciers are retreating, serving as key indicators of global warming. This study aims to assess how subglacial hydrology affects glacier front retreat by comparing two glacier–fjord models of the Hansbreen glacier: one incorporating a detailed subglacial hydrology model and another simplifying the subglacial discharge to a single channel centered in the flow line. We first validate the subglacial hydrology model by comparing its discharge channels with observations of plume activity. Simulations conducted from April to December 2010 revealed that the glacier front position aligns more closely with the observations in the coupled model than in the simplified version. Furthermore, the mass loss due to calving and submarine melting is greater in the coupled model, with the calving mass loss reaching 6 Mt by the end of the simulation compared to 4 Mt in the simplified model. These findings highlight the critical role of subglacial hydrology in predicting glacier dynamics and emphasize the importance of detailed modeling in understanding the responses of Arctic tidewater glaciers to climate change. Full article