Search Results (472)

In green credit markets, information asymmetry and corporate greenwashing increasingly undermine the efficiency of resource allocation, while traditional assessment models relying on static, self-reported environmental data fail to impose effective constraints. To address this limitation, this paper develops a dynamic corporate carbon credit evaluation framework by integrating multiple sources of physical (hard) signals and embeds it into commercial banks’ credit management systems. Anchored in multi-source power-carbon signals (e.g., carbon intensity and compliance records), the framework integrates verifiable physical metrics with ESG disclosures via a Bayesian AHP–CRITIC weighting scheme to construct a dual-dimensional classification scheme (“Credit Rating–Green Label”). It further embeds carbon credit scores into dynamic adjustments to credit limits and differentiated interest rate pricing, forming an integrated risk management mechanism. Empirically, a stratified validation strategy is adopted. Analysis based on a sample of 3327 firms shows that the proposed framework achieves a classification consistency of 81.3%, significantly outperforming both a financial-only baseline model (46.8%) and models based on voluntary carbon disclosure (61.4%). Ablation studies further confirm that physical (hard) signal indicators contribute substantially to ranking stability. Moreover, panel regression analysis, based on 36,185 firm-year observations from 3327 firms over the period 2000–2023, demonstrates that carbon credit scores have robust predictive power for future financial distress. Overall, the proposed framework offers a sustainable, data-driven approach to green credit risk management. Full article

Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals, carbon emission trading prices serve as a core signal of market operational efficiency. Accurately predicting carbon prices facilitates scientific decision-making, and model optimization is key to improving prediction accuracy. This study takes five major carbon trading pilots in China—Shenzhen, Guangdong, Hubei, Beijing, and Shanghai—as the research objects. An indicator system is constructed from four dimensions: macroeconomy, energy prices, climate and environment, and international markets. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm is employed to identify the key influencing factors of carbon prices across different markets. Among them, “WTI crude oil price” and “EUA futures closing price” are consistently significant factors common to all five pilots. On this basis, four models—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Transformer—are constructed for multi-method prediction comparison. The results show that ARIMAX and GRU achieve the best prediction performance among the four models. To further enhance prediction accuracy, hybrid optimization models are respectively developed: Support Vector Regression (SVR) is used to optimize the nonlinear residuals of ARIMAX (SVR-ARIMAX), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the key hyperparameters of GRU (GA-GRU). The hybrid models significantly reduce prediction errors in most markets. Specifically, SVR-ARIMAX shows particularly notable improvements in Beijing and Hubei, while GA-GRU outperforms standard GRU in Guangdong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hubei. Based on the optimized models, 12-month-ahead forecasts indicate that the Shenzhen market exhibits high volatility and greatest uncertainty; Guangdong remains relatively stable; Hubei, Beijing, and Shanghai are characterized by narrow-range fluctuations. The findings provide empirical support for corporate emission reduction decision-making, carbon market risk management, and price mechanism improvement. Full article

We propose various hybrid predictive systems to forecast the Bitcoin next-day price. In particular, we combine the decomposition methods based on signal processing techniques including maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), empirical wavelet transform (EWT), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and variational mode decomposition (VMD) for feature extraction from original price series. Then, the extracted features are fed to the machine learning models for training and forecasting. We implemented five machine learning models, including regression Gaussian process (RGP), support vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors algorithm (kNN), regression trees (RT), and feedforward neural networks (FFNN). The grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is employed for hyperparameter optimization of the machine learning models. The root mean squared error (RMSE) is used for the evaluation and comparison of 20 hybrid predictive systems. The simulation results show that the RGP-GWO-VMD hybrid predictive system achieved the lowest forecasting error. In addition, RGP-GWO yielded on average the lowest forecasting error across all of the machine learning systems. Furthermore, among signal decomposition methods, the lowest forecasting error is generally achieved under the EWT. Hence, we presented the best results in forecasting Bitcoin prices from 20 hybrid prediction systems to serve as the baseline for future work and to guide traders, investors, and portfolio managers. Full article

Futures price forecasting is often treated as a time-series prediction task. However, agricultural futures markets function as complex information systems in which prices emerge from the interaction of heterogeneous sources, including trading behavior and news-driven sentiment. Ignoring such cross-domain interactions limits the ability of traditional models to capture systemic price dynamics. This study reconceptualizes soybean futures forecasting as a multi-source information interaction problem and proposes a dual-attention LSTM framework to model cross-system coupling effects. A RoBERTa-based sentiment classifier is first developed to quantify market sentiment from news headlines. The extracted sentiment features are then integrated with historical trading variables and fed into an LSTM network equipped with temporal and feature-level attention mechanisms to capture dynamic evolution patterns and heterogeneous factor interactions. Empirical results show that the proposed system consistently outperforms conventional models. With a sliding window of 30 and a forecasting horizon of 7 days, the $R^2$ improves from 0.922 to 0.9797, demonstrating enhanced capability in modeling medium-term price dynamics. The findings highlight that futures forecasting should be approached as a system-level information integration task rather than a purely statistical extrapolation problem. Full article

Estimating long-term prices for base metals is central to the financial viability of mining investments, yet prices remain highly volatile and difficult to forecast. This study systematizes the determinants of base metal prices and evaluates their empirical influence using daily and weekly data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) for aluminium, copper, nickel, and zinc between April 2005 and May 2017. In this context, the study aims to identify and evaluate the key economic, financial, and physical drivers of base metal prices, with particular emphasis on distinguishing between short-run predictive factors and long-run equilibrium determinants. After aligning metal prices with candidate explanatory variables, linear associations are quantified through Pearson correlations and alternative functional forms are explored for price modelling, including linear, log-linear, and selected nonlinear transformations. The methodology is complemented with econometric diagnostics. Explanatory variables are grouped into four categories: (i) supply–demand metrics (inventories, production–consumption balances, sales aggregates, and LME position data), (ii) business cycle and income proxies (global GDP growth, China Caixin PMI, the U.S. S&P 500 index, and China steel rebar futures), (iii) investment variables (cross-metal prices and Brent crude), and (iv) monetary indicators (U.S. and the U.S. 10-year yield). Results show that short-run price movements are mainly driven by business cycle indicators and inventory dynamics, while long-run trends reflect structural supply conditions. Monetary variables generate temporary price impulses, and prices tend to lead speculative positioning rather than the reverse. Full article

Accurate mortality prediction is essential to actuarial practice as it is directly linked to insurance pricing, reserving, and the management of longevity risk. This study proposes a deep neural network (DNN) model for the mortality rates of multiple populations; it is composed of long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) components. As mortality trends evolve over long time horizons, and as capturing the complex dependencies among mortality rates across countries or regions with a linear model is challenging, the LSTM and CNN were applied to mortality modeling. The former can automatically learn long-term dependencies of sequential data, whereas the latter can extract local features from grid or sequential data. Formulated as a nonlinear generalization of the Lee–Carter decomposition, the model maps the log-mortality matrix $logM$ to future $logm(x,t)$ end-to-end and generates multi-step forecasts through dynamic recursive prediction. Then, the DNN and baseline models were used to fit mortality data of 21 countries from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), which were divided into training and test sets with the year 2000 as the split point. Extensive numerical experiments from the perspectives of accuracy, stability, and reliability of long-term forecasting revealed that DNN models yield better predictive performance, particularly the LSTM-CNN model. It combines the LSTM, CNN, and fully connected network (FCN) layers and thus exploits each deep neural network to fit nonlinear age, period, and cohort effects as well as their interactive terms to achieve better predictive performance. However, the CNN still outperformed other models for certain groups. In addition, the conclusions hold for remaining life expectancy. Full article

Educational equality is essential for achieving social justice and sustainable development. Accurately predicting the trend of educational inequality is important for improving education systems and ensuring equitable resource allocation. In this paper, the Educational Gini (E-Gini) index is calculated based on the population aged 6 and above in China from 2002 to 2024, quantifying educational inequality. To forecast the future trend in the E-Gini index, a hybrid prediction framework based on the grey prediction model (GM(1,1)) and Cuckoo search-support vector regression (CS-SVR) model is proposed. This framework incorporates three influencing factors, including government budget spending on education, per capita consumption expenditure on education, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for education. The results show that the E-Gini of China generally declines from 2002 to 2024 with fluctuations. The proposed approach predicts the E-Gini value of 2024 as 0.220130, while the actual value is 0.2206, corresponding to an absolute error of 0.000470 and a relative error of 0.213%. In the benchmark comparison, the proposed model outperforms the linear trend model, the univariate GM(1,1), the naive persistence model, ARIMA, and the standard SVR model. The comparative analysis demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the inherent patterns of educational inequality and reveals its trends. The proposed framework serves as a valuable tool for forecasting trends in educational inequality and informing policy decisions. Full article

Against the background of deepening “dual carbon” goals and the continuously tightening policies of the national carbon market, the carbon asset risks faced by thermal power enterprises have shifted from short-term compliance cost fluctuations to medium- and long-term systemic risks. Managing these risks effectively is essential for ensuring the financial viability of thermal power operations during the low-carbon transition, thereby supporting the long-term sustainability of the energy sector. This study constructs a risk management framework for carbon assets in thermal power enterprises based on the LSTM model and option portfolios. First, the multi-dimensional characteristics of medium- and long-term carbon asset risks are systematically identified at the policy, market, and enterprise levels. Second, a dual-layer LSTM model with Dropout regularization is employed to simulate medium- and long-term carbon prices. The prediction results indicate a moderate upward trend in future carbon prices, with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing. On this basis, a combined hedging strategy of “core call options + auxiliary put options” is designed, capping the maximum procurement cost at 72.63 CNY/ton and covering over 90% of the risk of carbon price increases. Monte Carlo simulations and rolling window backtesting, conducted using operational data from a thermal power enterprise to validate the framework, verify the effectiveness and robustness of the strategy. The study shows that, through the integration of accurate LSTM predictions and proactive option hedging, thermal power enterprises can transform their carbon asset management from passive compliance to active value creation, thereby enhancing their operational sustainability and resilience during the energy transition. Full article

This study evaluated thermal and thermo-alkaline post-treatment of digested cattle manure (DCM) as a strategy to increase methane recovery and improve the flexibility of biogas systems within hybrid renewable energy alternatives. A 10 L mesophilic CSTR was operated for 311 days, producing lignin-rich digestate that was subjected to a statistically designed range of post-treatment conditions varying temperature (50–90 °C), pH (8–12), and contact time (6–24 h). Biomethane potential assays and lignocellulosic fractionation were used to determine changes in solubilization, biodegradability, and methane production kinetics. Thermal treatment provided modest improvements, reaching 84 mg SCOD g⁻¹ PCOD solubilization and a 26 mL CH₄ g⁻¹ COD increase in methane yield. Thermo-alkaline treatment produced substantially higher enhancements, with the most severe condition (90 °C-pH 12–24 h) achieving 493 mg SCOD g⁻¹ PCOD solubilization, 66% removal of structural carbohydrates, and a 60.2 mL CH₄ g⁻¹ COD increase in methane yield, corresponding to a 16% rise in biodegradability and a twofold increase in methane production rate. Gompertz modeling indicated accelerated kinetics and minimal lag time. A strong linear correlation (R² = 0.90) between severity index and solubilization supported predictable scalability. These results demonstrate that thermo-alkaline hydrolysis can significantly enhance post-digestion methane recovery and strengthen the role of agricultural biogas in integrated renewable energy systems. The techno-economic analysis revealed that, despite higher operating costs for thermo-alkaline post-treatment than for the control, the main drivers are chemical costs and the price of renewable energy, and thus the application of post-treatment as a sustainable solution for animal manure treatment will likely improve as renewable energy prices increase in the future. Full article

This study proposes a machine learning framework tailored to the institutional characteristics of Taiwan’s stock market, aiming to enhance forecasting accuracy for the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). The model employs the Radius Neighbors Regressor with a dynamic radius-based similarity measure and integrates domain-specific features including technical indicators, volume–price relationships, and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) activity. A custom 60-day input window with a 20-day forecast horizon is applied to capture medium-term market dynamics. The framework was evaluated through extensive backtesting and real-world validation with the TAIEX Futures. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a peak directional accuracy of 85.1% under optimal parameter settings. Moreover, trading simulations confirm its practical viability, yielding a cumulative return on investment (ROI) of approximately 1600% during the short-term evaluation period (2023–2025) and nearly 2000% in the long-term evaluation (2019–2025), even after accounting for transaction costs and stop-loss mechanisms. These findings indicate that combining historical pattern similarity with institutional investor behavior substantially improves predictive power and profitability. Nevertheless, the framework remains constrained by its reliance on Taiwan-specific institutional features and historical trading data, limiting generalizability. Future research should extend applications to other markets while incorporating macroeconomic variables, corporate fundamentals, and news-driven signals to enhance adaptability. Full article

This study uses multidimensional indicators of macroeconomics, supply and demand, cost, and market microstructure to construct an intelligent framework integrated with optimized Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) denoising for price forecasting and black early warning for egg futures in China from 2014 to 2023. Black early warning serves as a non-parametric early warning method that identifies abnormal price increases and falls based on historical fluctuation thresholds. As the first livestock future contract listed in China, accurate egg price forecasting is crucial for risk prevention and market control and regulation. First, LASSO regression was used to screen the core driving factors of egg futures prices. Nine key indicators were identified and input into the hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network–Gated Recurrent Unit (TCN-GRU) prediction model. To address the high-frequency noise in the original price series, two-dimensional optimization was performed on traditional EWMA denoising to achieve more adaptive noise filtering. By applying the black early warning method, the obtained future egg price fluctuations were more consistent with the actual situation. In addition, empirical analysis of multi-horizon forecasting and early warning for t + 1, t + 5, and t + 10 was carried out to further verify the model’s prediction accuracy. The results show that compared with the single TCN model, the single GRU model, and the TCN-GRU model without denoising, the TCN-GRU model integrated with optimized EWMA denoising achieves better prediction performance on the test set. In terms of the early warning matching rate, it reaches 83.33% for the t + 1 horizon, and the prediction accuracy for the t + 5 and t + 10 horizons decreases regularly but remains stable above 60%. In contrast, the highest early warning matching rate of the model without denoising is only 22.22% across all horizons, which has no practical early warning value. The early warning signals generated by the optimized EWMA denoising-based TCN-GRU model can effectively identify abnormal sharp rises and falls in egg futures prices, providing effective support for hedging and risk management for market participants. The study’s limitations are discussed, as well as future research directions. The findings provide a basis for decision making for agricultural producers and future investors and support the development of China’s agricultural product market. Full article

Accurate forecasting of copper futures prices is crucial for risk management and investment decisions. However, existing approaches primarily rely on historical prices and incorporate behavioral signals without a unified modeling framework. To address this limitation, we propose MBTI-Net (Multi-source Behavior-Triggered Interaction Network), a behavior-aware forecasting framework for heterogeneous copper market data. We first construct a compact behavioral factor from Baidu search indices via a multi-view projection strategy that preserves structural and predictive information. We then develop a complexity-aware reconstruction mechanism that aggregates intrinsic mode functions into multi-frequency components based on fuzzy entropy and energy. To accommodate distributional and volatility differences between behavioral and market variables, we introduce VB-ReVIN (Volatility- and Behavior-aware Reversible Instance Normalization). Building upon these representations, MBTI-Net models dynamic multi-source interactions triggered by behavioral intensity and market conditions, enabling adaptive cross-source information fusion. Experiments on LME and SHFE copper futures datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over state-of-the-art benchmarks, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling behavior-driven dependencies in financial forecasting. Full article

Given the context of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting global logistics, coupled with the Russia–Ukraine war causing global energy price changes, examining both the linear and nonlinear associations between shipping cost and oil price is crucial in a global context. This study empirically exhibits the association among Global Commodity Prices Index (GPI), Oil Price (OP), Gold Future Price (GFP), and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) by employing Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) as well as Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (Nonlinear ARDL) from January 2003 to January 2023. The findings indicate that the influence of OP on BDI has a negative impact in the long run and a positive impact in the short run. Furthermore, the OP has an asymmetric effect on BDI in both the long and short terms. Finally, the predictive performance of the NARDL model outperforms the ARDL model in forecasting OP and BDI. The empirical findings derived from the ARDL and NARDL algorithms offer valuable insights for policymakers in designing public policies and for investors in portfolio construction. Full article

This paper addresses the critical challenges of multi-stakeholder interest coordination and low-carbon operation in modern power systems, specifically focusing on the interaction among an Integrated Energy System (IES), Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (EVCS), and Load Aggregators (LA). To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel data-model driven optimization framework. A bi-level model is established, where the upper-level IES acts as the leader, and the lower-level EVCS and LA serve as followers. At the core of our approach is an integrated dynamic pricing mechanism that synergistically combines EVCS operational schedules, carbon emission signals, and load demand response. This mechanism, enhanced by predictive insights from historical data, effectively guides lower-level entities to participate in the upper-level IES’s optimization, thereby aligning individual benefits with system-wide low-carbon goals. The resulting bi-level problem is solved iteratively using CPLEX, with the optimal equilibrium selected via a joint optimality formula. The proposed methodology is validated on a multi-stakeholder case study. Results demonstrate that our AI-enhanced dynamic pricing and dispatch model not only effectively balances the interests of all parties but also significantly improves the system’s low-carbon economic performance, showcasing the potential of integrating physical models with data-driven insights for future energy system management. Full article

Handgrip strength (HGS) has been considered as an indicator of muscle strength and overall physical fitness, with increasing relevance in sports science for talent identification and performance monitoring. However, no bibliometric study has been conducted to map the HGS research landscape in athletic contexts. A bibliometric analysis was conducted in the Web of Science Core Collection database, retrieving 229 publications. Typical bibliometric laws (i.e., Price’s, Bradford’s, Lotka’s, and Zipf’s) were employed to analyze publication trends, core journals, influential authors, country contributions, and keyword co-occurrences. Annual publications increased exponentially, especially after 2019, reaching 37 documents in 2024. The Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research and Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness were the most prominent journals. The United States and Spain led in productivity and impact. Key research themes included strength, performance, body composition, and physical fitness, with HGS demonstrating significant associations with sport tasks such as throwing, racquet sports, and weightlifting. HGS constitutes an accessible and valuable tool for assessing and predicting athletic performance, especially in sports requiring upper body strength and coordination. Future research should aim to expand database inclusion and address identified gaps, such as the relationship between HGS training and sport-specific outcomes. Full article