Search Results (767)

Accurate modeling of ionospheric variability is critical for space weather forecasting and GNSS applications. While machine learning approaches have shown promise, progress is hindered by the absence of standardized benchmarking practices and narrow test periods. In this paper, we take the first step toward fostering rigorous and reproducible evaluation of AI models for ionospheric forecasting by introducing IonoBench—a benchmarking framework that employs a stratified data split, balancing solar intensity across subsets while preserving 16 high-impact geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ $-100$ nT) for targeted stress testing. Using this framework, we benchmark a field-specific model (DCNN) against state-of-the-art spatiotemporal architectures (SwinLSTM and SimVPv2) using the climatological IRI 2020 model as a baseline reference. DCNN, though effective under quiet conditions, exhibits significant degradation during elevated solar and storm activity. SimVPv2 consistently provides the best performance, with superior evaluation metrics and stable error distributions. Compared to the C1PG baseline (the CODE 1-day forecast product), SimVPv2 achieves a notable RMSE reduction up to $32.1\%$ across various subsets under diverse solar conditions. The reported results highlight the value of cross-domain architectural transfer and comprehensive evaluation frameworks in ionospheric modeling. With IonoBench, we aim to provide an open-source foundation for reproducible comparisons, supporting more meticulous model evaluation and helping to bridge the gap between ionospheric research and modern spatiotemporal deep learning. Full article

Understanding the price dynamics of oil futures is crucial for advancing green finance strategies and supporting sustainable energy transitions. This study investigates the macroeconomic and energy market determinants of oil futures prices through Granger causality, cointegration analysis, and the error correction model, using daily data. It focuses on the influence of economic development levels, exchange rate fluctuations, and inter-energy price linkages. The empirical findings indicate that (1) oil futures prices exhibit strong correlations with other energy prices, macroeconomic factors, and exchange rate variables; (2) economic development significantly affects oil futures prices, while exchange rate impacts are statistically insignificant based on the daily data analyzed; (3) there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between oil futures prices and variables representing economic activity, exchange rates, and energy market trends; (4) oil futures prices exhibit significant short-term dynamics while adjusting steadily toward a long-run equilibrium driven by macroeconomic and energy market fundamentals. By enhancing the accuracy of oil futures price forecasting, this study offers practical insights for managing financial risks associated with fossil energy markets and contributes to the formulation of low-carbon investment strategies. The findings provide a valuable reference for integrating energy pricing models into sustainable finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions. Full article

Precise photovoltaic (PV) performance modeling is essential for optimizing system design, operational monitoring, and reliable power forecasting—yet spectral correction is often overlooked, despite its significant impact on energy yield uncertainty. This study employs the FARMS-NIT model to assess the impact of spectral irradiance on eight PV technologies across 79 European sites, grouped by Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Unlike previous studies limited to clear-sky or single-site analysis, this work integrates satellite-derived spectral data for both all-sky and clear-sky scenarios, enabling hourly, tilt-optimized simulations that reflect real-world operating conditions. Spectral analyses reveal European climates exhibit blue-shifted spectra versus AM1.5 reference, only 2–5% resembling standard conditions. Thin-film technologies demonstrate superior spectral gains under all-sky conditions, though the underlying drivers vary significantly across climatic regions—a distinction that becomes particularly evident in the clear-sky analysis. Crystalline silicon exhibits minimal spectral sensitivity (<1.6% variations), with PERC/PERT providing highest stability. CZTSSe shows latitude-dependent performance with ≤0.7% variation: small gains at high latitudes and losses at low latitudes. Atmospheric parameters were analyzed in detail, revealing that air mass (AM), clearness index (K_t), precipitable water (W), and aerosol optical depth (AOD) play key roles in shaping spectral effects, with different parameters dominating in distinct climate groups. Full article

Accurate prediction of wind speed is critical for wind power generation and bias correction serves as an effective tool to enhance the precision of climate model forecasts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of three bias correction methods—Quantile Regression at the 50th percentile (QR50), Linear Regression (LR), and Optimal Threat Score (OTS)—for improving wind speed predictions at a height of 70 m from the NCEP CFSv2 model in Shanxi Province, China. Using observational data from nine wind towers (2021–2024) and corresponding model hindcasts, we analyze systematic biases across lead times of 1–45 days. Results reveal persistent model errors: overestimation of low wind speeds (<6 m/s) and underestimation of high wind speeds (>6 m/s), with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) exceeding 1.5 m/s across all lead times. Among the correction methods, QR50 demonstrates the most robust performance, reducing the mean RMSE by 11% in October 2023 and 10% in February 2024. Correction efficacy improves significantly at longer lead times (>10 days) and under high RMSE conditions. These findings underscore the value of regression-based approaches in complex terrain while emphasizing the need for dynamic adjustments during extreme wind events. Full article

Increasing drought conditions at the global level have created concerns about the decrease in water resources. This situation has made the correct planning of irrigation applications the most important situation. Irrigation management in future periods is possible with the correct determination of the reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) trend. In the current situation, the trend is usually determined using one or two methods. Failure to conduct a detailed trend analysis results in incorrect irrigation management. With the new approach presented in the research, all of the Mann–Kendall (MK), innovative trend analysis (ITA), Sen’s slope (SS) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests were used, and the common results of the four tests, namely increase, decrease, and no trend, were taken into account. The ET₀ values calculated in different approaches were focused on temporal and spatial analysis for the future irrigation management of Türkiye with the Blaney–Criddle (BC), Turc (TR), and Coutagne (CT) methods. The future period forecast was made using four different trend analyses with geographical information system (GIS) based spatial applications using 12-month ET₀ data calculated from 59 years of data between 1965 and 2023. Statistical analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between ET₀ calculation methods. The findings showed that although there is a general increasing trend in ET₀ values in the region, this situation is more pronounced, especially in the provinces in the western and central regions. The research results improve the determination of plant water needs for future periods in terms of irrigation management. This new approach, which determines ET₀ trend analysis in the Black Sea region, can be used in regional, national, and international studies by supporting different calculations to be made in order to plan future water management correctly, to reduce the concern of decreasing water resources in drought conditions, and to obtain comprehensive data in order to provide appropriate irrigation. Full article

A methodology for detecting systematic errors in sets of equally accurate, uncorrelated, aggregate measurements is proposed and applied within the automatic real-time dispatch control system of a copper concentrator plant (CCP) to refine the technical and economic performance indicators (EPIs) computed by the system. This work addresses and solves the problem of selecting and obtaining reliable measurement data by exploiting the redundant measurements of process streams together with the balance equations linking those streams. This study formulates an approach for integrating cloud technologies, machine learning methods, and forecasting into information control systems (ICSs) via predictive analytics to optimize CCP production processes. A method for combining the hybrid cloud infrastructure with an LSTM-DNN neural network model has been developed, yielding a marked improvement in TEP for copper concentration operations. The forecasting accuracy for the key process parameters rose from 75% to 95%. Predictive control reduced energy consumption by 10% through more efficient resource use, while the copper losses to tailings fell by 15–20% thanks to optimized reagent dosing and the stabilization of the flotation process. Equipment failure prediction cut the amount of unplanned downtime by 30%. As a result, the control system became adaptive, automatically correcting the parameters in real time and lessening the reliance on operator decisions. The architectural model of an ICS for metallurgical production based on the hybrid cloud and the LSTM-DNN model was devised to enhance forecasting accuracy and optimize the EPIs of the CCP. The proposed model was experimentally evaluated against alternative neural network architectures (DNN, GRU, Transformer, and Hybrid_NN_TD_AIST). The results demonstrated the superiority of the LSTM-DNN in forecasting accuracy (92.4%), noise robustness (0.89), and a minimal root-mean-square error (RMSE = 0.079). The model shows a strong capability to handle multidimensional, non-stationary time series and to perform adaptive measurement correction in real time. Full article

The rapid proliferation of electric vehicles necessitates accurate forecasting of charging pile capacity for urban power system planning, yet existing methods for medium- to long-term prediction lack effective mechanisms to capture complex multi-factor relationships. To address this gap, a hybrid cointegration–BiLSTM framework is proposed for medium- to long-term load forecasting. Cointegration theory is leveraged to identify long-term equilibrium relationships between EV charging capacity and socioeconomic factors, effectively mitigating spurious regression risks. The extracted cointegration features and error correction terms are integrated into a bidirectional LSTM network to capture complex temporal dependencies. Validation using data from 14 cities in Hunan Province demonstrated that cointegration analysis surpassed linear correlation methods in feature preprocessing effectiveness, while the proposed model achieved enhanced forecasting accuracy relative to conventional temporal convolutional networks, support vector machines, and gated recurrent units. Furthermore, a 49% reduction in MAE and RMSE was observed when ECT-enhanced features were adopted instead of unenhanced groups, confirming the critical role of comprehensive feature engineering. Compared with the GRU baseline, the BiLSTM model yielded a 26% decrease in MAE and a 24% decrease in RMSE. The robustness of the model was confirmed through five-fold cross-validation, with ECT-enhanced features yielding optimal results. This approach provides a scientifically grounded framework for EV charging infrastructure planning, with potential extensions to photovoltaic capacity forecasting. Full article

The continuous release of global precipitation products offers a stable data source for flood forecasting in areas without rainfall gauges. However, due to constraints of forecast timeliness, only no/short-lag precipitation products can be utilised for flood forecasting, but these products are prone to significant errors. Therefore, the keys of flood forecasting in areas lacking rainfall gauges are selecting appropriate precipitation products, improving the accuracy of precipitation products, and reducing the errors of precipitation products by combination with hydrology models. This paper first presents the current no/short-lag precipitation products that are continuously updated online and for which the download of long series historical data is supported. Based on this, this paper reviews the utilisation methods of multi-source precipitation products for flood forecasting in areas with insufficient rainfall gauges from three perspectives: methods for precipitation product performance evaluation, multi-source precipitation fusion methods, and methods for coupling precipitation products with hydrological models. Finally, future research priorities are summarized: (i) to construct a quantitative evaluation system that can take into account both the accuracy and complementarity of precipitation products; (ii) to focus on the improvement of the areal precipitation fields interpolated by gauge-based precipitation in multi-source precipitation fusion; (iii) to couple real-time correction of flood forecasts and multi-source precipitation; and (iv) to enhance global sharing and utilization of rain gauge–radar data for improving the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation products. Full article

Radar echo extrapolation is a critical forecasting tool in the field of meteorology, playing an especially vital role in nowcasting and weather modification operations. In recent years, spatiotemporal sequence prediction models based on deep learning have garnered significant attention and achieved notable progress in radar echo extrapolation. However, most of these extrapolation network architectures are built upon convolutional neural networks, using radar echo images as input. Typically, radar echo intensity values ranging from −5 to 70 dBZ with a resolution of 5 dBZ are converted into 0–255 grayscale images from pseudo-color representations, which inevitably results in the loss of important echo details. Furthermore, as the extrapolation time increases, the smoothing effect inherent to convolution operations leads to increasingly blurred predictions. To address the algorithmic limitations of deep learning-based echo extrapolation models, this study introduces three major improvements: (1) A Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network (DCGAN) is integrated into the ConvLSTM-based extrapolation model to construct a DCGAN-enhanced architecture, significantly improving the quality of radar echo extrapolation; (2) Considering that the evolution of radar echoes is closely related to the surrounding meteorological environment, the study incorporates specific physical variable products from the initial zero-hour field of RMAPS-NOW (the Rapid-update Multiscale Analysis and Prediction System—NOWcasting subsystem), developed by the Institute of Urban Meteorology, China. These variables are encoded jointly with high-resolution (0.5 dB) radar mosaic data to form multiple radar cells as input. A multi-channel radar echo extrapolation network architecture (MR-DCGAN) is then designed based on the DCGAN framework; (3) Since radar echo decay becomes more prominent over longer extrapolation horizons, this study departs from previous approaches that use a single model to extrapolate 120 min. Instead, it customizes time-specific loss functions for spatiotemporal attenuation correction and independently trains 20 separate models to achieve the full 120 min extrapolation. The dataset consists of radar composite reflectivity mosaics over North China within the range of 116.10–117.50°E and 37.77–38.77°N, collected from June to September during 2018–2022. A total of 39,000 data samples were matched with the initial zero-hour fields from RMAPS-NOW, with 80% (31,200 samples) used for training and 20% (7800 samples) for testing. Based on the ConvLSTM and the proposed MR-DCGAN architecture, 20 extrapolation models were trained using four different input encoding strategies. The models were evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). Compared to the baseline ConvLSTM-based extrapolation model without physical variables, the models trained with the MR-DCGAN architecture achieved, on average, 18.59%, 8.76%, and 11.28% higher CSI values, 19.46%, 19.21%, and 19.18% higher POD values, and 19.85%, 11.48%, and 9.88% lower FAR values under the 20 dBZ, 30 dBZ, and 35 dBZ reflectivity thresholds, respectively. Among all tested configurations, the model that incorporated three physical variables—relative humidity (rh), u-wind, and v-wind—demonstrated the best overall performance across various thresholds, with CSI and POD values improving by an average of 16.75% and 24.75%, respectively, and FAR reduced by 15.36%. Moreover, the SSIM of the MR-DCGAN models demonstrates a more gradual decline and maintains higher overall values, indicating superior capability in preserving echo structural features. Meanwhile, the comparative experiments demonstrate that the MR-DCGAN (u, v + rh) model outperforms the MR-ConvLSTM (u, v + rh) model in terms of evaluation metrics. In summary, the model trained with the MR-DCGAN architecture effectively enhances the accuracy of radar echo extrapolation. Full article

The performance of monthly prediction of extreme precipitation from the BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 model over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) using historical hindcast data from 2008 to 2022 was evaluated in this study, mainly from three aspects: overall performance in predicting daily precipitation rates, systematic biases, and monthly prediction of extreme precipitation metrics. The results showed that the BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2 model demonstrates approximately 10-day predictive skill for summer daily precipitation over the YRB. Relatively higher skill regions concentrate in the central basin, while skill degradation proves more pronounced in downstream areas compared to the upper basin. After correcting model systematic biases, prediction skills for total precipitation-related metrics significantly surpass those of extreme precipitation indices, and metrics related to precipitation amounts demonstrate relatively higher skill compared to those associated with precipitation days. Total precipitation (TP) and rainy days (RD) exhibit comparable skills in June and July, with August showing weaker performance. Nevertheless, basin-wide predictions within 10-day lead times remain practically valuable for most regions. Prediction skills for extreme precipitation amounts and extreme precipitation days share similar spatiotemporal patterns, with high-skill regions shifting progressively south-to-north from June to August. Significant skills for June–July are constrained within 10-day leads, while August skills rarely exceed 1 week. Further analysis reveals that the predictive capability of the model predominantly originates from normal or below-normal precipitation years, whereas the accurate forecasting of extremely wet years remains a critical challenge, which highlights limitations in capturing mechanisms governing exceptional precipitation events. Full article

To address the critical demand for high-precision forecasts in flood management, real-time error correction techniques are increasingly implemented to improve the accuracy and operational reliability of the hydrological prediction framework. However, developing a robust error correction scheme remains a significant challenge due to the compounded errors inherent in hydrological modeling frameworks. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble learning-based correction (BELC) scheme is proposed which integrates hydrological modeling with multiple machine learning methods to enhance real-time error correction for flood forecasting. The Xin’anjiang (XAJ) model is selected as the hydrological model for this study, given its proven effectiveness in flood forecasting across humid and semi-humid regions, combining structural simplicity with demonstrated predictive accuracy. The BELC scheme straightforwardly post-processes the output of the XAJ model under the Bayesian ensemble learning framework. Four machine learning methods are implemented as base learners: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a light gradient-boosting machine (LGBM), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and random forest (RF). Optimal weights for all base learners are determined by the K-means clustering technique and Bayesian optimization in the BELC scheme. Four baseline schemes constructed by base learners and three ensemble learning-based schemes are also built for comparison purposes. The performance of the BELC scheme is systematically evaluated in the Hengshan Reservoir watershed (Fenghua City, China). Results indicate the following: (1) The BELC scheme achieves better performance in both accuracy and robustness compared to the four baseline schemes and three ensemble learning-based schemes. The average performance metrics for 1–3 h lead times are 0.95 (NSE), 0.92 (KGE), 24.25 ${\mathrm{m}}^3/\mathrm{s}$ (RMSE), and 8.71% (RPE), with a PTE consistently below 1 h in advance. (2) The K-means clustering technique proves particularly effective with the ensemble learning framework for high flow ranges, where the correction performance exhibits an increment of 62%, 100%, and 100% for 1 h, 2 h, and 3 h lead hours, respectively. Overall, the BELC scheme demonstrates the potential of a Bayesian ensemble learning framework in improving real-time error correction of flood forecasting systems. Full article

Accurate wind resource assessment is essential for offshore wind energy development, particularly in nearshore sites where atmospheric stability and internal boundary layers significantly influence the horizontal wind distribution. In this study, we investigated wind estimation methods using a high-resolution, 100 m grid Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and coastal onshore wind measurement data. Five estimation methods were evaluated, including a control WRF simulation without on-site measurement data (CTRL), observation nudging (NDG), two offline methods—temporal correction (TC) and the directional extrapolation method (DE)—and direct application of onshore measurement data (DA). Wind speed and direction data from four nearshore sites in Japan were used for validation. The results indicated that TC provided the most accurate wind speed estimate results with minimal bias and relatively high reproducibility of temporal variations. NDG exhibited a smaller standard deviation of bias and a slightly higher correlation with the measured time series than CTRL. DE could not reproduce temporal variations in the horizontal wind speed differences between points. These findings suggest that TC is the most effective method for assessing nearshore wind resources and is thus recommended for practical use. Full article

Surface soil moisture (SM) is a critical factor in hydrological modeling, agricultural management, and numerical weather forecasting. This paper presents a highly effective soil moisture retrieval algorithm developed for the FY-3E (FengYun-3E) GNOS-R (GNSS Occultation Sounder II-Reflectometry) instrument. The algorithm incorporates a first-order vegetation model that considers vegetation density and volume scattering. Utilizing multi-angle GNOS-R observations, the algorithm derives surface reflectivity, which is combined with ancillary data on opacity, vegetation water content, and soil moisture from SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) to optimize the retrieval process. The algorithm has been specifically tailored for different surface conditions, including bare soil, areas with low vegetation, and densely vegetated regions. The algorithm directly incorporates the angle-dependence of observations, leading to enhanced retrieval accuracy. Additionally, a new approach parameterizes surface roughness as a function of angle, allowing for refined corrections in reflectivity measurements. For vegetated areas, the algorithm effectively isolates the soil surface signal by eliminating volume scattering and vegetation effects, enabling the accurate estimation of soil moisture. By leveraging multi-angle data, the algorithm achieves significantly improved retrieval accuracy, with root mean square errors of 0.0235, 0.0264, and 0.0191 (g/cm³) for bare, low-vegetation, and dense-vegetation areas, respectively. This innovative methodology offers robust global soil moisture estimation capabilities using the GNOS-R instrument, surpassing the accuracy of previous techniques. Full article

High-accuracy streamflow forecasting with long lead times can help promote the efficient utilization of water resources. However, the construction of cascade reservoirs has allowed the evolution of natural continuous rivers into multi-block rivers. The existing streamflow forecasting methods fail to consider the impact of reservoir operation. Thus, a novel short-term streamflow forecasting method for multi-block watersheds was proposed by integrating machine learning and hydrological models. Firstly, based on IMERG precipitation, the forecast precipitation product’s error is corrected by the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). Secondly, coupling convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and LSTM, operation rules for cascade reservoirs are extracted. Thirdly, a short-term deterministic streamflow forecasting model was built for multi-block watersheds. Finally, according to the sources of forecasting errors, probabilistic streamflow forecasting models based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) were proposed, and their performances were compared. Taking the Yalong River as an example, the main results are as follows: (1) Deep learning models (ConvLSTM and LSTM) show good performance in forecast precipitation correction and reservoir operation rule extraction, contributing to streamflow forecasting accuracy. (2) The proposed streamflow deterministic forecasting method has good forecasting performance with NSE above 0.83 for the following 1–5 days. (3) The GMM model, using upstream evolutionary forecasted streamflow, interval forecasted streamflow, and downstream forecasted streamflow as the input–output combination, has good probabilistic forecasting performance and can adequately characterize the “non-normality” and “heteroskedasticity” of forecasting uncertainty. Full article

Today’s environmental issues are among the primary themes that researchers explore in their search for practical solutions to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable practices. Renewable energy is crucial to overcoming future challenges, causing many countries to accelerate their adoption at various levels. In this context, the impact of renewable energy adoption on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Ha’il region has been evaluated. Specifically, two techniques are employed. The first technique is an empirical model based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which identifies the SDGs related to renewable energy in achieving SDGH. Only three SDGs (SDG7, SDG12, and SDG13) were found to influence SDGH significantly. The second technique uses deep learning, specifically LSTM networks, to forecast SDGH behavior over a ten-year period about the three selected SDGs. The results indicate that these three SDGs play a crucial role in sustainable development in the Ha’il region. Therefore, this research produces strategic recommendations to optimize the adoption of renewable energy in the Ha’il region. These findings provide policymakers with a data-driven framework to enhance strategies, utilize resources more efficiently, and promote broader sustainability initiatives. Full article