Search Results (46)

Emerging markets face growing pressures to integrate sustainable English business practices while maintaining economic growth, particularly in addressing environmental challenges and achieving carbon neutrality goals. English Financial information extraction becomes crucial for supporting green finance initiatives, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) compliance, and sustainable investment decisions in these markets. This paper presents FinATG, an AI-driven autoregressive framework for extracting sustainability-related English financial information from English texts, specifically designed to support emerging markets in their transition toward sustainable development. The framework addresses the complex challenges of processing ESG reports, green bond disclosures, carbon footprint assessments, and sustainable investment documentation prevalent in emerging economies. FinATG introduces a domain-adaptive span representation method fine-tuned on sustainability-focused English financial corpora, implements constrained decoding mechanisms based on green finance regulations, and integrates FinBERT with autoregressive generation for end-to-end extraction of environmental and governance information. While achieving competitive performance on standard benchmarks, FinATG’s primary contribution lies in its architecture, which prioritizes correctness and compliance for the high-stakes financial domain. Experimental validation demonstrates FinATG’s effectiveness with entity F1 scores of 88.5 and REL F1 scores of 80.2 on standard English datasets, while achieving superior performance (85.7–86.0 entity F1, 73.1–74.0 REL+ F1) on sustainability-focused financial datasets. The framework particularly excels in extracting carbon emission data, green investment relationships, and ESG compliance indicators, achieving average AUC and RGR scores of 0.93 and 0.89 respectively. By automating the extraction of sustainability metrics from complex English financial documents, FinATG supports emerging markets in meeting international ESG standards, facilitating green finance flows, and enhancing transparency in sustainable business practices, ultimately contributing to their sustainable development goals and climate action commitments. Full article

Stock price forecasting remains a persistent challenge in time series analysis due to complex inter-stock relationships and dynamic textual signals such as financial news. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can model relational structures, they often struggle with capturing higher-order dependencies and are sensitive to noise. Moreover, sentiment signals are typically aggregated using fixed time windows, which may introduce temporal bias. To address these issues, we propose DASF-Net (Diffusion-Aware Sentiment Fusion Network), a multimodal framework that integrates structural and textual information for robust prediction. DASF-Net leverages diffusion processes over two complementary financial graphs—one based on industry relationships, the other on fundamental indicators—to learn richer stock representations. Simultaneously, sentiment embeddings extracted from financial news using FinBERT are aggregated over an empirically optimized window to preserve temporal relevance. These modalities are fused via a multi-head attention mechanism and passed to a temporal forecasting module. DASF-Net integrates daily stock prices and news sentiment, using a 3-day sentiment aggregation window, to forecast stock prices over daily horizons (1–3 days). Experiments on 12 large-cap S&P 500 stocks over four years demonstrate that DASF-Net outperforms competitive baselines, achieving up to 91.6% relative reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE). Results highlight the effectiveness of combining graph diffusion and sentiment-aware features for improved financial forecasting. Full article

Financial forecasting is a research and practical challenge, providing meaningful economic and strategic insights. While Machine Learning (ML) models are employed in various studies to examine the impact of technical and sentiment factors on financial markets forecasting, in this work, macroeconomic indicators are also combined to forecast the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index. Initially, contextual data are scored using TextBlob and pre-trained DistilBERT-base-uncased models, and then a combined dataset is formed. Followed by preprocessing, feature engineering and selection techniques, three corresponding datasets are generated and their impact on future prices is examined, by employing ML models, such as Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), XGBoost, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). LR and MLP show robust results with high R² scores, close to 0.998, and low error MSE and MAE rates, averaging at 350 and 13 points, respectively, across both training and test datasets, with technical indicators contributing the most to the prediction. While other models also perform very well under different dataset combinations, overfitting challenges are evident in the results, even after additional hyperparameter tuning. Potential limitations are highlighted, motivating further exploration and adaptation techniques in financial modeling that enhance predictive capabilities. Full article

Sentiment analysis is widely applied in the financial domain. However, financial documents, particularly those concerning the stock market, often contain complex and often ambiguous information, and their conclusions frequently deviate from actual market fluctuations. Thus, in comparison to sentiment polarity, financial analysts are primarily concerned with understanding the underlying rationale behind an article’s judgment. Therefore, providing an explainable foundation in a document classification model has become a critical focus in the financial sentiment analysis field. In this study, we propose a novel approach integrating financial domain knowledge within a hierarchical BERT-GRU model via a Query-Guided Dual Attention (QGDA) mechanism. Driven by domain-specific queries derived from securities knowledge, QGDA directs attention to text segments relevant to financial concepts, offering interpretable concept-level explanations for sentiment predictions and revealing the ’why’ behind a judgment. Crucially, this explainability is validated by designing diverse query categories. Utilizing attention weights to identify dominant query categories for each document, a case study demonstrates that predictions guided by these dominant categories exhibit statistically significant higher consistency with actual stock market fluctuations (p-value = 0.0368). This approach not only confirms the utility of the provided explanations but also identifies which conceptual drivers are more indicative of market movements. While prioritizing interpretability, the proposed model also achieves a 2.3% F1 score improvement over baselines, uniquely offering both competitive performance and structured, domain-specific explainability. This provides a valuable tool for analysts seeking deeper and more transparent insights into market-related texts. Full article

Accurate stock price prediction requires the integration of heterogeneous data streams, yet conventional techniques struggle to simultaneously leverage fine-grained micro-stock features and broader macroeconomic indicators. To address this gap, we propose MambaLLM, a novel framework that fuses macro-index and micro-stock inputs through the synergistic use of state-space models (SSMs) and large language models (LLMs). Our two-branch architecture comprises (i) Micro-Stock Encoder, a Mamba-based temporal encoder for processing granular stock-level data (prices, volumes, and technical indicators), and (ii) Macro-Index Analyzer, an LLM module—employing DeepSeek R1 7B distillation—capable of interpreting market-level index trends (e.g., S&P 500) to produce textual summaries. These summaries are then distilled into compact embeddings via FinBERT. By merging these multi-scale representations through a concatenation mechanism and subsequently refining them with multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), MambaLLM dynamically captures both asset-specific price behavior and systemic market fluctuations. Extensive experiments on six major U.S. stocks (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, GOOGL, and META) reveal that MambaLLM delivers up to a 28.50% reduction in RMSE compared with suboptimal models, surpassing traditional recurrent neural networks and MAMBA-based baselines under volatile market conditions. This marked performance gain highlights the framework’s unique ability to merge structured financial time series with semantically rich macroeconomic narratives. Altogether, our findings underscore the scalability and adaptability of MambaLLM, offering a powerful, next-generation tool for financial forecasting and risk management. Full article

Financial sentiment analysis is crucial for making informed decisions in the financial markets, as it helps predict trends, guide investments, and assess economic conditions. Traditional methods for financial sentiment classification, such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and Logistic Regression, served as our baseline models. While somewhat effective, these conventional approaches often struggled to capture the complexity and nuance of financial language. Recent advancements in deep learning, particularly transformer-based models like GPT and BERT, have significantly enhanced sentiment analysis by capturing intricate linguistic patterns. In this study, we explore the application of deep learning for financial sentiment analysis, focusing on fine-tuning GPT-4o, GPT-4o-mini, BERT, and FinBERT, alongside comparisons with traditional models. To ensure optimal configurations, we performed hyperparameter tuning using Bayesian optimization across 100 trials. Using a combined dataset of FiQA and Financial PhraseBank, we first apply zero-shot classification and then fine tune each model to improve performance. The results demonstrate substantial improvements in sentiment prediction accuracy post-fine-tuning, with GPT-4o-mini showing strong efficiency and performance. Our findings highlight the potential of deep learning models, particularly GPT models, in advancing financial sentiment classification, offering valuable insights for investors and financial analysts seeking to understand market sentiment and make data-driven decisions. Full article

Effective investment decision-making in today’s volatile financial market demands the integration of advanced predictive analytics, alternative data sources, and behavioral insights. This paper introduces an innovative Internet of Behaviors (IoB) ecosystem that integrates real-time data acquisition, advanced feature engineering, predictive modeling, explainability, automated portfolio management, and an intelligent decision support engine to enhance financial decision-making. Our framework effectively captures complex temporal dependencies in financial data by combining robust technical indicators and sentiment-driven metrics—derived from BERT-based sentiment analysis—with a multi-layer LSTM forecasting model. To enhance the model’s performance and transparency and foster user trust, we apply XAI methods, namely, TimeSHAP and TIME. The IoB ecosystem also proposes a portfolio management engine that translates the predictions into actionable strategies and a continuous feedback loop, enabling the system to adapt and refine its strategy in real time. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach: the LSTM forecasting model achieved an RMSE of 0.0312, an MAE of 0.0250, an MSE of 0.0010, and a directional accuracy of 95.24% on TSLA stock returns. Furthermore, the portfolio management algorithm successfully transformed an initial balance of USD 15,000 into a final portfolio value of USD 21,824.12, yielding a net profit of USD 6824.12. These results highlight the potential of IoB-driven methodologies to revolutionize financial services by enabling more personalized, transparent, and adaptive investment solutions. Full article

This study investigates the application of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of financial news and their use in developing effective investment strategies. We conducted sentiment analysis on news articles related to the top 30 companies listed on Nasdaq using both discriminative models such as BERT and FinBERT, and generative models including Llama 3.1, Mistral, and Gemma 2. To enhance the robustness of the analysis, advanced prompting techniques—such as Chain of Thought (CoT), Super In-Context Learning (SuperICL), and Bootstrapping—were applied to generative LLMs. The results demonstrate that long strategies generally yield superior portfolio performance compared to short and long–short strategies. Notably, generative LLMs outperformed discriminative models in this context. We also found that the application of SuperICL to generative LLMs led to significant performance improvements, with further enhancements noted when both SuperICL and Bootstrapping were applied together. These findings highlight the profitability and stability of the proposed approach. Additionally, this study examines the explainability of LLMs by identifying critical data considerations and potential risks associated with their use. The research highlights the potential of integrating LLMs into financial strategy development to provide a data-driven foundation for informed decision-making in financial markets. Full article

GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is a groundbreaking generative model that has facilitated substantial progress in natural language processing (NLP). As the GPT-n series has continued to evolve, its applications have garnered considerable attention across various industries, particularly in finance. In contrast, traditional financial research has primarily focused on analyzing structured data such as stock prices. However, recent trends highlight the growing importance of natural language techniques that address unstructured factors like investor sentiment and the impact of news. Positive or negative information about specific companies, industries, or the overall economy found in news or social media can influence investor behavior and market volatility, highlighting the critical need for robust sentiment analysis. In this context, we utilize the state-of-the-art language model GPT and the finance-specific sentiment analysis model FinBERT to perform sentiment and time-series analyses on financial news data, comparing the performance of the two models to demonstrate the potential of GPT. Furthermore, by examining the relationship between sentiment shifts in financial markets and news events, we aim to provide actionable insights for investment decision-making, emphasizing both the performance and interpretability of the models. To enhance the performance of GPT-4o, we employed a systematic approach to prompt design and optimization. This process involved iterative refinement, guided by insights derived from a labeled dataset. This approach emphasized the pivotal importance of prompt design in improving model accuracy, resulting in GPT-4o achieving higher performance than FinBERT. During the experiment phase, sentiment scores were generated from New York Times news data and visualized through time-series graphs for both models. Although both models exhibited similar trends, significant differences arose depending on news content characteristics across categories. According to the results, the performance of GPT-4o, optimized through prompt engineering, outperformed that of FinBERT by up to 10% depending on the sector. These findings emphasize the importance of prompt engineering and demonstrate GPT-4o’s potential to improve sentiment analysis. Furthermore, the categorized news data approach suggests potential applications in predicting the outlook of categorized financial products. Full article

The complex and specialized terminology of financial language in Portuguese-speaking markets create significant challenges for natural language processing (NLP) applications, which must capture nuanced linguistic and contextual information to support accurate analysis and decision-making. This paper presents DeB3RTa, a transformer-based model specifically developed through a mixed-domain pretraining strategy that combines extensive corpora from finance, politics, business management, and accounting to enable a nuanced understanding of financial language. DeB3RTa was evaluated against prominent models—including BERTimbau, XLM-RoBERTa, SEC-BERT, BusinessBERT, and GPT-based variants—and consistently achieved significant gains across key financial NLP benchmarks. To maximize adaptability and accuracy, DeB3RTa integrates advanced fine-tuning techniques such as layer reinitialization, mixout regularization, stochastic weight averaging, and layer-wise learning rate decay, which together enhance its performance across varied and high-stakes NLP tasks. These findings underscore the efficacy of mixed-domain pretraining in building high-performance language models for specialized applications. With its robust performance in complex analytical and classification tasks, DeB3RTa offers a powerful tool for advancing NLP in the financial sector and supporting nuanced language processing needs in Portuguese-speaking contexts. Full article

Accurately predicting stock prices remains a challenging task due to the volatile and complex nature of financial markets. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a large language model (LLM), a Linear Transformer (LT), and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to enhance stock price prediction using solely historical market data. The framework leverages the LLM as a professional financial analyst to perform daily technical analysis. The technical indicators, including moving averages (MAs), relative strength index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands (BBs), are calculated directly from historical stock data. These indicators are then analyzed by the LLM, generating descriptive textual summaries. The textual summaries are further transformed into vector representations using FinBERT, a pre-trained financial language model, to enhance the dataset with contextual insights. The FinBERT embeddings are integrated with features from two additional branches: the Linear Transformer branch, which captures long-term dependencies in time-series stock data through a linearized self-attention mechanism, and the CNN branch, which extracts spatial features from visual representations of stock chart data. The combined features from these three modalities are then processed by a Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) for final stock price prediction. Experimental results on the S&P 500 dataset demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly improves stock prediction accuracy by effectively capturing temporal, spatial, and contextual dependencies in the data. This multimodal approach highlights the importance of integrating advanced technical analysis with deep learning architectures for enhanced financial forecasting. Full article

Automatic intention recognition in financial service scenarios faces challenges such as limited corpus size, high colloquialism, and ambiguous intentions. This paper proposes a hybrid intention recognition framework for financial customer service, which involves semi-supervised learning data augmentation, label semantic inference, and text classification. A semi-supervised learning method is designed to augment the limited corpus data obtained from the Chinese financial service scenario, which combines back-translation with BERT models. Then, a K-means-based semantic inference method is introduced to extract label semantic information from categorized corpus data, serving as constraints for subsequent text classification. Finally, a BERT-based text classification network is designed to recognize the intentions in financial customer service, involving a multi-level feature fusion for corpus information and label semantic information. During the multi-level feature fusion, a shallow-to-deep (StD) mechanism is designed to alleviate feature collapse. To validate our hybrid framework, 2977 corpus texts about loan service are provided by a financial company in China. Experimental results demonstrate that our hybrid framework outperforms existing deep learning methods in financial customer service intention recognition, achieving an accuracy of 89.06%, precision of 90.27%, recall of 90.40%, and an F1 score of 90.07%. This study demonstrates the potential of the hybrid framework to automatic intention recognition in financial customer service, which is beneficial for the improvement of the financial service quality. Full article

In this study, we introduce a detailed framework for predicting market conditions and selecting stocks by integrating machine learning techniques with ontological financial analysis. The process starts with ontology-based stock selection, categorizing companies using fundamental financial indicators such as liquidity, profitability, debt ratios, and growth metrics. For instance, firms showcasing favorable debt-to-equity ratios along with robust revenue growth are identified as high-performing entities. This classification facilitates targeted analyses of market dynamics. To predict market states—categorizing them into bull, bear, or neutral phases—the framework utilizes a Non-Stationary Markov Chain (NMC), BERT, to assess sentiment in financial news articles and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to identify temporal patterns. Key inputs like the Sentiment Index (SI) and Illiquidity Index (ILLIQ) play essential roles in dynamically influencing regime predictions within the NMC model; these inputs are supplemented by variables including GARCH volatility and VIX to enhance predictive precision further still. Empirical findings demonstrate that our approach achieves an impressive 97.20% accuracy rate for classifying market states, significantly surpassing traditional methods like Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, KNN, Decision Tree, ANN, Random Forest, and XGBoost. The state-predicted strategy leverages this framework to dynamically adjust portfolio positions based on projected market conditions. It prioritizes growth-oriented assets during bull markets, defensive assets in bear markets, and maintains balanced portfolios in neutral states. Comparative testing showed that this approach achieved an average cumulative return of 13.67%, outperforming the Buy and Hold method’s return of 8.62%. Specifically, for the S&P 500 index, returns were recorded at 6.36% compared with just a 1.08% gain from Buy and Hold strategies alone. These results underscore the robustness of our framework and its potential advantages for improving decision-making within quantitative trading environments as well as asset selection processes. Full article

This study examines how sentiment analysis of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news affects the financial performance of companies in innovative sectors such as mobility, technology, and renewable energy. Using approximately 9828 general ESG articles from Google News and approximately 140,000 company-specific ESG articles, we performed term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) analysis to identify key ESG-related terms and visualize their materiality across industries. We then applied models such as bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT), the robustly optimized BERT pretraining approach (RoBERTa), and big bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BigBird) for multiclass sentiment analysis, and distilled BERT (DistilBERT), a lite BERT (ALBERT), tiny BERT (TinyBERT), and efficiently learning an encoder that classifies token replacements accurately (ELECTRA) for positive and negative sentiment identification. Sentiment analysis results were correlated with profitability, cash flow, and stability indicators over a three-year period (2019–2021). ESG ratings from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), a prominent provider that evaluates companies’ sustainability practices, further enriched our analysis. The results suggest that sentiment impacts financial performance differently across industries; for example, positive sentiment correlates with financial success in mobility and renewable energy, while consumer goods often show positive sentiment even with low environmental ESG scores. The study highlights the need for industry-specific ESG strategies, especially in dynamic sectors, and suggests future research directions to improve the accuracy of ESG sentiment analysis. Full article

This study explores the comparative performance of cutting-edge AI models, i.e., Finaance Bidirectional Encoder representations from Transsformers (FinBERT), Generatice Pre-trained Transformer GPT-4, and Logistic Regression, for sentiment analysis and stock index prediction using financial news and the NGX All-Share Index data label. By leveraging advanced natural language processing models like GPT-4 and FinBERT, alongside a traditional machine learning model, Logistic Regression, we aim to classify market sentiment, generate sentiment scores, and predict market price movements. This research highlights global AI advancements in stock markets, showcasing how state-of-the-art language models can contribute to understanding complex financial data. The models were assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC. Results indicate that Logistic Regression outperformed the more computationally intensive FinBERT and predefined approach of versatile GPT-4, with an accuracy of 81.83% and a ROC AUC of 89.76%. The GPT-4 predefined approach exhibited a lower accuracy of 54.19% but demonstrated strong potential in handling complex data. FinBERT, while offering more sophisticated analysis, was resource-demanding and yielded a moderate performance. Hyperparameter optimization using Optuna and cross-validation techniques ensured the robustness of the models. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of the practical applications of AI approaches in stock market prediction and presents Logistic Regression as the most efficient model for this task, with FinBERT and GPT-4 representing emerging tools with potential for future exploration and innovation in AI-driven financial analytics. Full article