Search Results (122)

Background/Objectives: Early embryonic arrest during the cleavage stage (days 2–4) accounts for a substantial proportion of developmental failure in in vitro fertilization. This phenomenon remains poorly understood at the molecular level, even in chromosomally normal embryos identified by preimplantation genetic testing. This review aims to redefine cleavage-stage arrest from a passive energy deficit to a checkpoint-regulated endpoint caused by inadequate coordination among metabolism, transcriptome integrity, and stress-response pathways. Methods: We integrate evidence from long-read transcriptomics, metabolomics, epigenetics, and immunobiology relevant to pre-blastocyst development. These data are assembled into a unifying mechanistic framework and a clinically oriented stratification model, together with candidate multimodal readouts for early classification. Results: We propose a three-axis model linking: (i) metabolic–epigenetic insufficiency, including defective histone lactylation and impaired alpha-ketoglutarate-dependent DNA demethylation; (ii) isoform-level abnormalities, including intron retention and retrotransposon activation within a hidden transcriptomic landscape better resolved by long-read sequencing; and (iii) stress-related immune signaling, in which NLRP7 links alternative splicing and DNA-damage-response dysfunction with mitochondrial stress and p53-associated arrest. Within this framework, we distinguish three molecular arrest states: an early transition failure marked by defective maternal-to-embryonic reprogramming and severe splicing disruption; a metabolically quiescent state that may retain a limited rescue window; and a later stress-associated state characterized by senescence-like features, oxidative stress, and broad transcriptomic and genomic instability. Conclusions: Early embryo arrest should no longer be viewed as a nonspecific developmental failure, but as a mechanistically stratifiable condition with distinct metabolic, transcriptomic, and stress-associated trajectories. A diagnostic platform combining fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy, long-read sequencing, and digital polymerase chain reaction may improve early mechanistic classification, help identify embryos with possible reversibility, and reduce uncertainty in embryo selection during in vitro fertilization. Full article

The objective of this review is to synthesize current knowledge and evidence on male reproductive health by addressing preventive medicine strategies and biomarkers, as well as to provide clinicians, researchers, and policy makers with a coherent framework for prevention of male reproductive health. In this review male (in)fertility and determinants of male reproductive health as well as preventive strategies with special attention to primary, secondary and tertiary prevention in male reproductive health will be analyzed. From primary preventive measures: education, weight management, physical activity, sleep, healthy diet, alcohol and smoking consumption will be assessed, while from secondary preventive measures: sexually transmitted infection (STI) from the point of transmission prevention, testicular self-examination, hormonal testing and management, chronic diseases and semen analysis will be discussed; and from tertiary preventive measures: treatment of STI, treatment of congenital abnormalities, infertility treatment and urogenital cancer treatment will be elaborated. Additionally, biomarkers in male reproductive health will be synthesized and discussed. Bridging the gap between evidence and practice will ultimately lead to better understanding of the complex state of male reproductive health, thus minimizing the potential missed windows of opportunities in timely adequate preventive interventions implementations, as well as on time diagnostic and optimal treatment options. Full article

Karst desertification (KD) severely constrains regional ecological security and sustainable development. As an important ecological restoration measure, soil and water conservation agroforestry (SWCAF) systems have unclear mechanisms for soil microbial responses. This study investigated the effects of potential–light (PL), light–moderate (LM), and moderate–high (MH) KD on soil physicochemical properties and microbial communities in Karst SWCAF (KSWCAF) systems. It explored the drivers of microbial community changes. The results showed that (1) Soil physicochemical properties exhibited nonlinear changes along the KD gradient. Key soil-fertility indicators including silt, clay, total porosity (TP), total phosphorus (Total_P), total nitrogen (Total_N), soil organic carbon (SOC), and carbon nitrogen ratio (C_N) showed significant unimodal patterns, peaking at the LM stage with optimal overall soil quality; (2) The dominant bacterial phyla were Pseudomonadota, Acidobacteriota, Actinomycetota, and Planctomycetota, while the dominant fungal phyla were Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Mortierellomycota. The overall abundance of these dominant phyla increased with intensifying KD, except that the relative abundance of Pseudomonadota was lowest in the QZ study area, while Acidobacteriota was highest in the QZ area. The dominant fungal phylum Ascomycota increased with KD intensification; (3) KD significantly influenced microbial community structure and beta diversity. Fungi showed stronger responses to the KD gradient than bacteria. Bacterial alpha diversity was significantly higher in the LM stage compared to the PL and MH stages (p < 0.05), while fungal alpha diversity was significantly lowest in the MH stage (p < 0.05); (4) Bacterial networks exhibited highest complexity but reduced stability at the LM stage, whereas fungal networks enhanced stability at the MH stage by increasing modularization and positive correlation proportions; (5) RDA revealed that soil physicochemical factors explained 66.89% and 98.82% of bacterial and fungal community variation, respectively, with pH, moisture, and C_N as key drivers. Overall, KD regulates microbial community structure and functional allocation by reshaping the soil environmental gradient, with the LM stage potentially representing a “transitional optimization window” for KSWCAF ecosystem structure and function. This study provides a theoretical basis for microbial regulation strategies in KD control and soil and water conservation (SWC) processes. Full article

Background: Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is a high-production-volume plasticizer and ubiquitous environ-mental contaminant with established endocrine-disrupting potential. While zebrafish transcriptomic studies have typically used high concentrations and long exposure windows, less is known about genome-wide responses during late embryogenesis/early larval maturation under environmentally relevant exposures. Here we profiled whole-organism transcriptomic responses to a short DEHP exposure during a developmentally sensitive transition (96–120) hours post-fertilization, hpf) and interpreted responses using differential expression, enrichment analyses, and endocrine-focused protein–protein interaction (PPI) network modeling. Methods: Wild-type AB zebrafish lar-vae (96 hpf) were exposed to DEHP at [10⁻⁹ M] or solvent control for 24 h. Larvae were pooled per replicate (25 lar-vae/pool) and processed for poly(A)-selected RNA-seq. Reads were quality-controlled, aligned to the Danio rerio reference genome, and quantified at gene- level. Differential expression was performed using DESeq2. Functional enrichment used KEGG over-representation analysis (ORA) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). Zebrafish genes were mapped to human orthologs for GO/KEGG and STRING-based endocrine subnetworks, which were visualized and interrogated using STRINGdb and visNetwork. Results: Low-dose, short-term exposure does not produce large gene-level effects but induces coordinated, pathway-level transcriptional remodeling. KEGG ORA showed significant enrichment of MAPK signaling and regulation of actin cytoskeleton with additional enrichment of axon guidance and neuroactive ligand–receptor interaction. GSEA detected coordinated downregulation of KEGG neurodegeneration collections with negative normalized enrichment scores reflecting shared gene sets re-lated to mitochondrial function, proteostasis, cytoskeletal organization, and stress-response pathways. Endo-crine-focused STRING subnetworks indicated consistent downregulation of CYP19A1 within estrogen metabo-lism/biosynthesis modules and downregulation of upstream androgen biosynthetic enzymes HSD3B2 and CYP17A1, alongside upregulation of HSD17B3 and proteostasis-associated factors including DNAJA1. Endocrine network to-pology highlighted regulatory and cofactor nodes affecting receptor-linked transcription, consistent with indirect endocrine modulation rather than large receptor-transcript changes. Conclusions: In summary, this study demon-strates that exposure to low-dose DEHP during a critical period of zebrafish embryonic development is associated with modest but coordinated transcriptomic changes across multiple biological pathways. Pathway enrichment and network-based analyses highlight estrogen- and androgen-associated processes, along with broader signaling, met-abolic, and structural pathways, as transcriptionally responsive during this window. Importantly, these findings reflect molecular-level associations rather than direct evidence of functional or physiological endocrine disruption. Instead, they identify candidate pathways and regulatory networks that may be sensitive to low-level environmen-tal exposure and warrant further investigation. Collectively, this work underscores the value of systems-level tran-scriptomic approaches for detecting subtle, pathway-wide responses to environmentally relevant exposures during development. Full article

Complex transcriptional and epigenetic regulation, including variation in promoter-level cis-regulatory architecture, influences infertility. In this study, we performed a purely in silico analysis of the −1000 to −1 bp promoter regions (relative to the annotated TSS) of 13 human fertility-related genes using an integrated motif-discovery and annotation workflow (NNPP, MEME/STREME, Tomtom, FIMO/CentriMo, GOMo, and MethPrimer). Motif discovery identified multiple statistically supported de novo promoter motifs, and motif scanning mapped their occurrences across the analyzed promoters. Similarity searches against curated PWM databases did not yield significant matches under stringent criteria, consistent with divergent or under-represented motif patterns. Functional association analysis and CpG island profiling further highlighted promoter segments that merit prioritization for follow-up testing. As the analysis is purely in silico and restricted to a fixed promoter window, the identified motifs should be interpreted as candidate regulatory elements pending experimental validation. Full article

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions in cereal-based rotations often show short-lived peaks after fertilization, but their contribution to annual budgets and their responsiveness to straw management remain poorly quantified. We combined a 13-year legacy fertilization experiment with two years of high-frequency N₂O monitoring in a rice–wheat rotation in central China to quantify post-fertilization peak windows and test how straw-return rate modulates these windows and annual emissions. Five long-term treatments were compared: an unfertilized control (CK), straw only (2M, 12 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), mineral fertilizer (NPK), and NPK with 6 or 12 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ straw (MNPK and 2MNPK). Under N input, wheat-season emissions dominated annual totals, with the ratio of wheat-season to annual N₂O emissions (WN/TN, where WN denotes wheat-season N₂O emissions and TN denotes annual cumulative N₂O emissions) of ~73–75% for NPK and MNPK, significantly higher than in CK and the straw-only control. Decomposition of annual fluxes showed that 56.6–65.4% of N₂O in N-applied treatments occurred within short windows after the two wheat-season fertilizations, whereas rice-season peaks were small and largely insensitive to treatment. Planned contrasts expressed as geometric mean ratios (GMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) highlighted a strong management leverage point: increasing straw from 6 to 12 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with NPK reduced annual and wheat-season N₂O by ~47% and 58%, respectively, primarily by lowering peak magnitude and shortening peak duration. Microbial analyses suggested that treatment effects on N₂O were better reflected by community compositional shifts (β-diversity) than by α-diversity, while amoA abundance showed guild-specific responses. Collectively, this study provides an event-window quantification framework that links high-frequency field measurements to a specific, actionable mitigation lever (straw-return rate) in rice–wheat systems. Together, these results identify wheat-season post-fertilization windows as the main control points for annual N₂O in rice–wheat rotations and show that pairing NPK fertilization with higher straw return can temper short-lived peaks. By explicitly pinpointing when (which windows) and how (attenuating peak magnitude and duration) mitigation is achieved, our findings offer a management-ready and transferable basis for targeted N₂O abatement in double-cropping systems. Full article

Trade competitiveness can coexist with structurally fragile value chains. When chain feasibility fractures from trade competitiveness, competitiveness without coherence becomes sustainability’s opposite. This paper proposes revisiting the concept of sustainability in agri-food systems, through the lens of structural coherence, understood as the alignment between trade competitiveness, export-destination diversification, and value chain capacity. The research goal is to design and operationalize a diagnostic instrument for structural coherence testing through the triangulation of constant market share analysis (CMSA), the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), and physical structural input–output analysis (I-OA). CMSA measures two elements: demand- and competitiveness-driven export dynamics. Export patterns are further explored to verify if there are any destination-market concentration risks (HHI). I-OA closes the loop by linking trade outcomes to internal value chain capacity and efficiency. With clear upstream–downstream segmentation, the sunflower oilseed value chain of the European Union (EU) represents an empirically fertile ground, relevant in the context of the geopolitical disruptions of Black Sea trade corridors and double-cropping dynamics with food-fuel and land-use trade-offs. Focusing on Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Romania, and Spain, which collectively account for more than 85% of EU sunflower seed production, this paper benchmarks post-2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) programming effects, utilized as a proxy for a period of stability, against the post-2020 window, marked by a sequence of crises. Diagnosis is facilitated through findings triangulation, enabling deriving CAP-relevant policy recommendations, aligned with country-specific binding constraints. Results show heterogeneous structurally incoherent profiles: Bulgaria suffers from growth-induced stress, France’s chain efficiency is eroded, the Hungarian chain lacks competitiveness, Romania is raw-export dependent with value-added leakage, and Spain is structurally constrained by physical limits. Policy recommendations target reorienting market-driven low value-added trade behaviors toward structurally sustainable value chain trajectories. Full article

Somatic embryogenesis (SE) represents the most efficient and scalable technology for the mass clonal propagation and genetic improvement of superior conifer genotypes, which is crucial for meeting global wood demand and supporting forest adaptation to climate change. Despite its immense potential, SE in the genus Pinus still faces major limitations, including low initiation frequencies, restricted explant availability, and pronounced genotype dependence. This review synthesizes current knowledge on the factors influencing SE in Pinus species, with a specific focus on two ecologically vital Tertiary relicts endemic to the Balkan Peninsula: Pinus peuce (Macedonian pine) and Pinus heldreichii (Bosnian pine). For these species, traditional vegetative propagation methods are difficult or ineffective, making SE the priority approach for clonal propagation. Detailed studies on these species revealed that SE induction is highly dependent on the explant type and developmental stage. Successful embryogenic tissue formation was achieved only from whole megagametophytes containing immature zygotic embryos, within a narrow developmental window spanning 4–10 weeks post-fertilization. Furthermore, medium composition, particularly reduced ammonium concentration, proved critical for P. heldreichii success. These findings underscore the need for continued, species-specific optimization to overcome current bottlenecks and realize the full potential of SE for the conservation and sustainable clonal forestry of these high-value pines. Full article

Whey and its permeates constitute highly organic, low-alkalinity dairy streams whose management remains suboptimal in many processing facilities. This narrative review integrates recent evidence on the anaerobic digestion (AD) of whey, linking substrate composition and biodegradability with microbial pathways, inhibition mechanisms, biogas quality, and techno-economic and environmental feasibility in industrial settings. Data for sweet whey, acid whey, and their permeates are synthesized, with emphasis on operational windows, micronutrient requirements, and co-digestion or C/N/P/S balancing strategies that sustain resilient methanogenic communities. Options for biogas conditioning and upgrading towards combined heat and power, boiler applications, and compressed or liquefied biomethane are examined, and selection criteria are proposed based on impurity profiles, thermal integration, and methane-recovery performance. Finally, critical R&D gaps are identified, including mechanistic monitoring, bioavailable micronutrition, modular upgrading architectures, and the valorization of digestate as a recovered fertilizer. This review provides an integrated framework to guide the design and operation of technically stable, environmentally verifiable, and economically viable whey-to-biomethane schemes for the dairy industry. Full article

There is increasing evidence that exposure to environmental toxicants may impact fertility, especially during critical windows of reproductive axis development. Hypothalamic gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) neurons, essential for puberty onset and fertility, originate from the olfactory placode and migrate toward the hypothalamus during development, making them particularly vulnerable to environmental insults. Cadmium (Cd), a widespread heavy metal, is well known for its gonadotoxicity, but its impact on human hypothalamic neuron development remains unclear. Using human fetal GnRH neuroblasts (FNCB4) we investigated the effects of Cd exposure on their morpho-functional and developmental features. Cd induced oxidative stress and COX2 mRNA upregulation, indicative of inflammatory pathway activation, which was accompanied by reduced cell migration and downregulation of motility-related genes. These effects were associated with F-actin disassembly and altered expression of adhesion molecules. Electrophysiological analyses showed that Cd altered membrane potential, increased capacitance and permeability, and disrupted gap junctional communication, as also confirmed by connexin-43 delocalization. Moreover, Cd significantly reduced the expression of specific GnRH neuronal markers, suggesting impaired functional maturation. Overall, our findings provide the first evidence that Cd may interfere with mechanisms crucially involved in human GnRH neuron development, adding new mechanistic insights into the comprehension of how early-life exposure to Cd may contribute to fertility concerns. Full article

The reliable quantification of urea in agricultural systems requires methods that combine metrological rigor with low environmental impact. This work develops and validates a micro-Raman method (λ = 532 nm) for the direct determination of urea in aqueous solutions and soils. The method is formally compared with the reference procedure ISO 19746:2017 (HPLC). Calibration, based on the 1000–1200 and 1460–1670 cm⁻¹ windows, showed near-ideal linearity in the 0.25–25% w/w range (r² = 0.9999). LOD and LOQ values were 0.178 and 0.735% w/w, respectively. Intra- and inter-day accuracy proved adequate for routine use (RSD ≤ 5%). A one-way ANOVA (p = 0.983) confirmed no statistically significant differences between concentrations obtained by micro-Raman and ISO 19746:2017. In the soil matrix, recoveries ranged between 94 and 101, and the contained biases demonstrate good tolerance to matrix effects. Application to maize plots allowed for monitoring urea disappearance at three depths (0–2 cm, 5–7 cm and 10–15 cm) over 90 days. These differentiated areas of rapid surface hydrolysis from more persistent fractions at depth. The Eco-Scale (96), GAPI (pictogram dominated by green areas), and AGREE (0.88) metrics confirm a significantly lower environmental footprint than that of the chromatographic method. The proposed micro-Raman methodology is emerging as a green, fast, and traceable alternative for monitoring urea in fertilizers and agricultural soils. Full article

Rice–crab co-culture systems (RC) represent promising sustainable intensification approaches, yet their nitrogen (N) cycling and optimal fertilization strategies remain poorly characterized. In this study, we compared RC with rice monoculture system (RM) across four N gradients (0, 150, 210, and 270 kg N·hm⁻²), assessing N dynamics in field water and N distribution in soil. The results showed that field water ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N) concentrations increased nonlinearly, showing sharp increases beyond 210 kg N·hm⁻². Notably, crab activity in the RC altered the N transformation and transport processes, leading to a prolonged presence of nitrate nitrogen (NO₃⁻-N) in field water for two additional days after tillering fertilization compared to RM. This indicates a critical window for potential nitrogen loss risk, rather than enhanced retention, 15 days after basal fertilizer application. Compared to RM, RC exhibited enhanced nitrogen retention capacity, with NO₃⁻-N concentrations remaining elevated for an additional two days following tillering fertilization, suggesting a potential critical period for nitrogen loss risk. Post-harvest soil analysis revealed contrasting nitrogen distribution patterns: RC showed enhanced NH₄⁺-N accumulation in surface layers (0–2 cm) with minimal vertical NO₃⁻-N redistribution, while RM exhibited progressive NO₃⁻-N increases in subsurface layers (2–10 cm) with increasing fertilizer rates. The 210 kg N·hm⁻² rate proved optimal for the RC, producing a rice yield 12.08% higher than that of RM and sustaining high crab yields, while avoiding the excessive aqueous N levels seen at higher rates. It is important to note that these findings are based on a single-site, single-growing season field experiment conducted in Panjin, Liaoning Province, and thus the general applicability of the optimal nitrogen rate may require further validation across diverse environments. We conclude that a fertilization rate of 210 kg N·hm⁻² is the optimal strategy for RC, effectively balancing productivity and environmental sustainability. This finding provides a clear, quantitative guideline for precise N management in integrated aquaculture systems. Full article

In the field of smart agriculture, soil property data at the field scale drives the precision decision-making of agricultural inputs such as seeds and chemical fertilizers. However, soil texture has significant spatial variability at the field scale, and traditional remote sensing monitoring methods have certain data intermittency, which limits small-scale prediction research. In this study, based on the Google Earth Engine platform, soil synthetic images were generated according to different time intervals using mean compositing and median compositing modes, image bands were extracted, and spectral indices were introduced; combined with the random forest algorithm, the effects of different compositing time windows, compositing modes, and compositing data types on prediction accuracy were evaluated; and three partitioning strategies based on crop growth, soil synthetic image brightness, and soil type were adopted to conduct local partitioning regression of soil texture. The results show that: (1) The use of mean compositing of multi-year May images from 2021 to 2024 can improve prediction accuracy. When this method is combined with the “band reflectance + spectral indices” dataset, compared with other compositing methods, the R² of clay particles, silt particles, and sand particles can be increased by 8.89%, 9.50%, and 2.48% on average. (2) Compared with using only image band data, the introduction of spectral indices can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of soil texture at the field scale, and the R² of clay particles, silt particles, and sand particles is increased by 4.58%, 3.43%, and 4.59% on average, respectively. (3) Global regression is superior to local partitioning regression; however, the local partitioning regression strategy based on soil type has good accuracy performance. Under the optimal compositing method, the average R² of soil particles of each size fraction is only 1.08% lower than that of global regression, which has great application potential. This study innovatively constructs a comprehensive strategy of “moisture spectral indices + specific compositing time window + specific compositing mode + soil type partitioning”, providing a new paradigm for soil texture prediction at the field scale in Northeastern China, and lays the foundation for data-driven water and fertilizer decision-making. Full article

Crucial regulators of gamete metabolism and signaling, mitochondria synchronize energy generation with redox equilibrium and developmental proficiency. Once thought of as hazardous byproducts, reactive oxygen species (ROS) are now understood to be vital signaling molecules that provide a “redox window of competence” that is required for oocyte maturation, sperm capacitation, and early embryo development. This review presents the idea of mitochondrial metabolic checkpoints, which are phases that govern gamete quality and fertilization potential by interacting with cellular signaling, redox balance, and mitochondrial activity. Recent research shows that oocytes may sustain a nearly ROS-free metabolic state by blocking specific respiratory-chain components, highlighting the importance of mitochondrial remodeling in gamete competence. Evidence from in vitro and in vivo studies shows that ROS act as dynamic gatekeepers at critical points in oogenesis, spermatogenesis, fertilization, and early embryogenesis. However, assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) may inadvertently disrupt this redox–metabolic equilibrium. Potential translational benefits can be obtained via targeted techniques that optimize mitochondrial function, such as modifying oxygen tension, employing mitochondria-directed antioxidants like MitoQ and SS-31, and supplementing with nutraceuticals like melatonin, CoQ10, and resveratrol. Understanding ROS-mediated checkpoints forms the basis for developing biomarkers of gamete competence and precision therapies to improve ART outcomes. By highlighting mitochondria as both metabolic sensors and redox regulators, this review links fundamental mitochondrial biology to clinical reproductive medicine. Full article

The North China Plain, a major grain production base in China, is facing the chronic threat of climate-change-induced delays in winter wheat sowing, with late sowing constraining yields by shortening the pre-winter growth period, and soil moisture at sowing potentially serving as a key factor to alleviate late-sowing losses. However, previous studies have mostly independently analyzed the effects of sowing time or water stress, and there is still a lack of systematic quantitative evaluation on how the interaction effects between the two determine long-term yield potential and risk. To fill this gap, this study aims to quantify, in the context of long-term climate change, the independent and interactive effects of different sowing dates and baseline soil moisture on the growth, yield, and production risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain, and to propose regionally adaptive management strategies. We selected three representative stations—Beijing (BJ), Wuqiao (WQ), and Zhengzhou (ZZ)—and, using long-term meteorological data (1981–2025) and field trial data, undertook local calibration and validation of the APSIM-Wheat model. Based on the validated model, we simulated 20 management scenarios comprising four sowing dates and five baseline soil moisture levels to examine the responses of phenology, aboveground dry matter, and yield, and further defined yield-reduction risk probability and expected yield loss indicators to assess long-term production risk. The results show that the APSIM-Wheat model can reliably simulate the winter wheat growing period (RMSE 4.6 days), yield (RMSE 727.1 kg ha⁻¹), and soil moisture dynamics for the North China Plain. Long-term trend analysis indicates that cumulative rainfall and the number of rainy days within the conventional sowing window have risen at all three sites. Delayed sowing leads to substantial yield reductions; specifically, compared with S1, the S4 treatment yields about 6.9%, 16.2%, and 16.0% less at BJ, WQ, and ZZ, respectively. Moreover, increasing the baseline soil moisture can effectively compensate for the losses caused by late sowing, although the effect is regionally heterogeneous. In BJ and WQ, raising the baseline moisture to a high level (P85) continues to promote biomass accumulation, whereas in ZZ this promotion diminishes as growth progresses. The risk assessment indicates that increasing baseline moisture can notably reduce the probability of yield loss; for example, in BJ under S4, elevating the baseline moisture from P45 to P85 can reduce risk from 93.2% to 0%. However, in ZZ, even the optimal management (S1P85) still carries a 22.7% risk of yield reduction, and under late sowing (S4P85) the risk reaches 68.2%, suggesting that moisture management alone cannot fully overcome late-sowing constraints in this region. Optimizing baseline soil moisture management is an effective adaptive strategy to mitigate late-sowing losses in winter wheat across the North China Plain, but the optimal approach must be region-specific: for BJ and WQ, irrigation should raise baseline moisture to high levels (P75-P85); for ZZ, the key lies in ensuring baseline moisture crosses a critical threshold (P65) and should be coupled with cultivar selection and fertilizer management to stabilize yields. The study thus provides a scientific basis for regionally differentiated adaptation of winter wheat in the North China Plain to address climate change and achieve stable production gains. Full article