Search Results (297)

Liquid rocket engines occasionally experience abnormal phenomena with unclear mechanisms, causing difficulty in design improvements. To address the above issue, a data mining method that combines ante hoc explainability, post hoc explainability, and prediction accuracy is proposed. For ante hoc explainability, a feature selection method driven by data, models, and domain knowledge is established. Global sensitivity analysis of a physical model combined with expert knowledge and data correlation is utilized to establish the correlations between different types of parameters. Then a two-stage optimization approach is proposed to obtain the best feature subset and train the prediction model. For the post hoc explainability, the partial dependence plot (PDP) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis are used to discover complex patterns between input features and the dependent variable. The effectiveness of the hybrid feature selection method and its applicability under different noise combinations are validated using synthesized data from a high-fidelity simulation model of a pressurization system. Then the analysis of the causes of a large vibration phenomenon in an active engine shows that the prediction model has good accuracy, and the feature selection results have a clear mechanism and align with domain knowledge, providing both accuracy and interpretability. The proposed method shows significant potential for data mining in complex aerospace products. Full article

Iterative decision making is deeply embedded in the design process of healthcare facilities. A significant body of literature and practices, most notably Evidence-based Design, explicitly seeks to better inform decisions as a key pathway to achieving improved outcomes. The objective of this systematic review is to explore multiple dimensions of decision making in the healthcare design literature, including interprofessional stakeholder engagement, decision flow elements, and multidisciplinary methodologies aimed at improving decision quality during healthcare facility design processes. This review offers a comprehensive review of 114 papers from the Web of Science, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and Art and Architecture Source. Decisions made during healthcare facility design processes are characterized as complex, highly interdependent, and difficult to reverse with significant implications for human and operational outcomes. The published literature emphasizes decision support generated from ex ante or ex post research. Despite numerous references to the importance of decision making, there are considerable gaps in the study of interprofessional group decision-making dynamics. The adoption and application of decision analysis tools and integrated decision flows are emerging. This review synthesizes current perspectives and methods aimed at improving decision making during the design of healthcare facilities and proposes a potential framework for future investigations of design decision quality. Full article

This study examines whether adopting blockchain technology can enhance maritime supply chain performance by improving information sharing in the presence of mismatches between service capacity and demand. We analyze a maritime supply chain with one port and one carrier. Depending on whether the port and the carrier adopt blockchain technology to share forecast information, we consider two scenarios: neither party adopts the technology, or both the port and the carrier adopt it. We find that when the port’s ex ante expected demand is relatively low, the adoption of blockchain technology not only incentivizes the port to expand its service capacity but also increases the actual demand from the carrier. In addition, when the port has a high forecasting accuracy, it prompts both the port and the carrier to make more stable decisions on the service capacity and freight rates under demand uncertainty. Finally, while the port and the carrier exhibit conflicting incentives to adopt blockchain technology, these tensions can nonetheless be reconciled. This alignment becomes possible due to blockchain’s spillover effect: by enabling information sharing, it facilitates a closer match between the port’s service capacity and the carrier’s realized demand. Full article

This study evaluates the current Spanish insurance framework for catastrophic flood risk, administered by the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS), based on nationwide loss data reported by the CCS for the period 1996–2020. The analysis of historical claims data enables a clear differentiation between frequent, low-cost events and infrequent, high-impact catastrophes. While the CCS has fulfilled a critical role in post-disaster compensation, the findings highlight the parallel need for ex ante risk mitigation strategies. The study proposes a more efficient, two-tier risk coverage model. Events whose impacts can be managed through standard insurance mechanisms should be underwritten by private insurers using actuarially fair premiums. In contrast, events with catastrophic implications—due to their scale or financial impact—should be addressed through general solidarity mechanisms, centrally managed by the CCS. Such a risk segmentation would improve the financial sustainability of the system and create fiscal space for prevention-oriented incentives. The current design of the CCS scheme may generate moral hazard, as flood exposure is not explicitly priced into the premium structure. Empirical findings support a shift towards a more transparent, incentive-aligned model that combines collective risk sharing with individual risk responsibility—an essential balance for effective climate adaptation and long-term resilience. Full article

The economic downturns in South Africa present a significant threat, with the potential to disrupt the nation’s notable advances in addressing the persistent challenges of high unemployment, widespread poverty and stark inequality. In the absence of substantial and extensive structural transformation, South Africa’s aspirations to achieve its ambitious development goals may remain unattainable. Building on the precedent of a blend of literature review, comprehensive ex post analysis, and applied general equilibrium modelling tailored for ex ante assessments, this paper assesses options and impacts of alternative ambitious developmental interventions. The results indicate that, despite implementing a variety of strategies, there remains a disheartening underperformance in economic indicators. However, ex ante evaluations indicate that with targeted interventions and supportive government policies, the country can achieve economic growth and job creation. Simulation results identify sectors of personal and social service activities, transport, finance, and insurance as having the most formidable potential to significantly reduce unemployment while simultaneously catalysing robust economic growth. These pivotal sectors, nestled within the broader services and industries, are uniquely poised to bolster overall productivity and diminish unemployment, while adeptly absorbing a considerable influx of highly educated and skilled labour. This suggests that South Africa can decisively accelerate its economic progress by embracing a dual-pronged approach: fostering structural shifts towards manufacturing and services, while steadfastly advancing the upskilling of its dynamic workforce. Full article

The rapid urbanization of contemporary cities represents one of the most complex challenges of the 21st century, with profound implications for the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of territories. In this context, urban regeneration emerges as a strategic approach to territorial transformation. The complexity of urban dynamics requires the adoption of innovative paradigms and systemic approaches capable of guiding decision-making processes toward eco-sustainable and resilient solutions. This research develops advanced decision support tools for urban regeneration, using the city of Potenza (Italy) as a case study. The main objective is to identify key indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of urban regeneration interventions in advance (ex-ante). The methodology develops a composite economic-financial risk index capable of providing an accurate picture of existing conditions while adapting to the territorial specificities of the analyzed area. This index, which uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique to integrate elementary economic-financial indicators in order to assess the sustainability level of urban redevelopment projects, is able to synthesize complex economic variables into a single parameter of immediate comprehension, strategically guiding investments toward a sustainable urban development model. The analysis of results highlights a peculiar territorial configuration: semi-central areas present the greatest criticalities, while there is a progressive decrease in risk both toward the central core and toward peripheral and extra-urban areas. The study represents a significant methodological contribution to future urban regeneration initiatives at the local level, promoting an integrated vision of sustainable urban development for the benefit of current and future generations. Full article

Effective monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are essential for ensuring that Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) contributes to the sustainable development of the blue economy while maintaining alignment with institutional frameworks. The study presented in this paper develops a stakeholder-driven M&E framework for sustainable MSP, emphasizing a participatory methodology to enhance the relevance and applicability of performance assessment. Using a structured mutual learning approach, the research engaged stakeholders in two iterative rounds: the first identified key strategic objectives for a sustainable blue economy through dialogue and a complementary questionnaire survey, while the second refined these into corresponding specific objectives. This process was applied in the context of a case study in Greece, where MSP implementation is shaped by national and EU regulatory frameworks and the socio-economic dynamics of the coastal and maritime sectors. The case study provided a practical testing ground for the proposed methodology, involving stakeholders from government, industry, and civil society to ensure a comprehensive perspective. The insights gained informed the design of a key performance indicator (KPI) framework, integrating qualitative and quantitative metrics tailored to the regional maritime governance landscape. These metrics were selected based on the SMARTIE (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-Bound, Inclusive, Equitable) criteria and were clearly aligned with the established objectives. The frequency of measurements, appropriate data collection methods, and indicative data sources were also defined to provide a complete KPIs framework. This stakeholder-driven methodology strengthens the adaptive capacity of MSP by ensuring continuous assessment and revision aligned with sustainability objectives and facilitating ex ante, intermediate, and ex post evaluations. The proposed framework is scalable and transferable, offering a systematic approach to improving policy coherence and decision-making across different geographic, administrative, and sectoral contexts, enabling sustainable governance and maritime governance. Full article

This study reframes closure intention in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as an ex ante diagnostic signal rather than a post-mortem symptom of failure. The survey evidence from 385 Ecuadorian SMEs was analyzed in two stages; confirmatory factor analysis validated the scales capturing environmental pessimism and personal pressures, and a structural equation model confirmed that both latent constructs directly heighten exit propensity. A binomial logistic regression model correctly classified 71% of the cases and explained 30% of variance. Five variables proved decisive: low-level liquidity (OR = 0.84), a high debt-to-equity ratio (1.41), weak profitability (0.14), negative environmental perceptions (1.72), and a shorter operating tenure (0.91); the sector and the firm size were non-significant. The combined CFA-SEM-logit sequence yields practical early warning thresholds—debt-to-equity ratio > 1.4, current ratio < 1.0, and ROA < 0.15—that lenders, advisers, and entrepreneurs can embed in dashboards or credit screens. Recognizing closure intention as a rational, strategic step challenges the stigma surrounding exit and links financial distress and the strategic exit theory. Policymakers can use the findings to pair debt relief and liquidity programs with cognitive bias training that helps owners interpret risk signals realistically. For scholars, the results highlight closure intention as a dynamic learning process, especially pertinent in emerging economies characterized by informality and institutional fragility. Full article

The extension of high-speed rail (HSR) lines around the world is increasing. The largest network today is in China, followed by Spain, Japan, France, and Italy; currently, new lines are being built in Morocco and Saudi Arabia. The goal of the new lines built is to drastically reduce the time distances between the extreme railway terminals by intervening on the two main components of time: space and speed. The two components have been investigated in various fields of engineering for design conditions (ex ante/a priori). In the literature, there is no analysis of what happened in the realization of the projects (ex post/retrospective). The research problem that arises is to analyze the high-speed lines built in order to verify, given a pair of extreme terminals, how much the length is reduced by passing from a conventional line to a high-speed line, and to verify how this length is getting closer and closer to the distance as the crow flies. The reduction of spatial distance produces direct connections between two territories, making the railway system (HSR) more competitive compared to other transport alternatives (e.g., air travel). To address the problem posed, information and data are collected on European HSR lines, which constitute a sufficiently homogeneous set in terms of railway and structural standards. The planimetric characteristics of specially built lines such as HSR are examined. A test method is proposed, consisting of a model that is useful to compare the length along the HSR line, with direct lengths, and existing conventional lines. The results obtained from the elaborations offer a first answer to the problem posed, demonstrating that in the HSR lines realized the spatial distances approach the distance as the crow flies between the cities located at the extremes, and are always shorter than the lengths of conventional lines. The final indications that can be drawn concern the possibility of using the results obtained as a reference for decision-makers and planners involved in the transport planning process at national and international level. Future research directions should study the values of the indicators in other large HSR networks, such as those built in Asia, and more generally study all the elements of the lines specially built to allow better sustainable planning, reducing the negative elements found and increasing the positive ones. Full article

We build two multiple-stage game-theoretical models to capture how a ride-hailing platform’s ex-ante and ex-post pricing strategies induce show-up drivers’ strategic inter-area relocations. In both models, the platform operates its ride-hailing service in a two-area city, where the realizations of ride-hailing demand and supply are spatially asynchronous. Based on the subgame perfect equilibria, we show that show-up drivers’ relocation equilibria induced by the platform’s pricing strategy are not unique but that the equilibrium multiplicity does not affect the platform’s profit. Further, we find that the commission rate has non-monotonic discontinuous impacts on the platform’s profitability, drivers’ welfare, and pollutant emission under both pricing strategies. The continuous impact of an increase in the commission rate leads to a win–loss outcome for the platform and drivers without any effect on the environment, while the jumps result in a loss–win–win outcome for the platform, drivers, and the environment. We finally reveal that, relative to the ex-ante pricing strategy, the ex-post pricing strategy always benefits the platform at the cost of environmental pollution and enhances (reduces) drivers’ welfare when the relocation cost is sufficiently low (high). Managerial insights are also discussed. Full article

The notion of compensation for systematic risk is well ingrained in finance and constitutes the basis for numerous empirical tests. The concept an increase in systematic risk is accompanied by an increase in the required risk premium has strong intuitive content: The more risk there is to be borne, the greater the compensation therefor. In recognizing previous research on the ex ante and ex post reward to risk, the thrust of this paper is to augment those previous tests of expected and realized returns by providing several distinct empirical tests of the proposition the market rewards the undertaking of systematic equity risk, the latter as measured by the VIX volatility index. Thus, in this paper’s empirical section, we use several empirical approaches to answer the question, Using realized returns, is an increase in systematic risk VIX accompanied by an increase in the equity risk premium? While the empirical results are not always statistically significant, our answer is in the affirmative. Full article

The European Union has been trying to adjust its tourism policy in response to the challenges posed by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The funding of the EU Cohesion Policy has been one of the primary mechanisms guaranteeing that all regions can be prepared to receive tourists and cope with the sustainability challenges the pandemic has raised. The recovery and resilience plan (PRR) is the most recent instrument created to help economic growth in most European Union countries. The implementation of the PRR in Algarve and Alentejo has been fundamental to understanding the Portuguese tourism sector, as these regions are heavily dependent on tourism sector revenue and were hit hard by the consecutive lockdowns in recent years. Therefore, this policy, in brief, critically assesses the tourism-related projects that received funding from the PRR until November 2023 (ex ante) and their potential to guarantee long-term tourism sustainability in Algarve and Alentejo. Despite not achieving the expected efficiency results due to delays in project execution and low investment, the PRR is still a positive upgrade for tourism-related policy in Algarve and Alentejo. Full article

Decision making in city logistics (CL) is complex due to the numerous concepts and alternatives, as well as the intricate relationships between measures and effects. This study introduces a novel approach to evaluating urban freight transport (UFT) by combining multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and social cost–benefit analysis (SCBA). This combination aims to improve decision making for sustainable CL concepts, particularly in reducing externalities in last-mile delivery. The model assesses various CL initiatives and urban consolidation center (UCC) concepts for their impact on UFT externalities. It uses the MCDM for ex ante scenarios assessment and prioritization. Input data were collected through a survey of experts from various sectors, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied in the case study of Novi Sad, Serbia. The prioritization highlighted the significance of implementing restrictive regulatory measures, alternative transport modes, and operational optimization within UCC concepts. By estimating capital, operational, and external costs, SCBA was applied to the prioritized UCC concepts, which were then further evaluated using the SCBA outputs. Sensitivity analysis was employed to assess the robustness of the proposed model. This paper offers valuable insights into the potential use of existing tools within a hybrid model to enhance decision making in CL. Full article

Numerous studies address the estimation of energy consumption at intermodal terminals, with a primary focus on existing facilities. However, a significant research gap lies in the lack of reliable methods and tools for the ex ante estimation of energy consumption in transshipment systems. Such tools are essential for assessing the energy demand and intensity of intermodal terminals during the design phase. This gap presents a challenge for intermodal terminal designers, power grid operators, and other stakeholders, particularly in an era of growing energy needs. The authors of this paper identified this issue in the context of a real business case while planning potential intermodal terminal locations along new railway lines. The need became apparent when power grid designers requested energy consumption forecasts for the proposed terminals, highlighting the necessity to formulate and mathematically solve this problem. To address this challenge, a three-stage model was developed based on a pre-designed intermodal terminal. Stage I focused on establishing the fundamental assumptions for intermodal terminal operations. Key parameters influencing energy intensity were identified, such as the size of the transshipment yard, the types of loading operations, the number of containers handled, and the selection of handling equipment. These parameters formed the foundation for further analysis and modeling. Stage II focused on determining the optimal number of machines required to handle a given throughput. This included determining the specific parameters of the equipment, such as speed, span, and efficiency coefficients, as well as ensuring compliance with installation constraints dictated by the terminal layout. Stage III focused on estimating the energy consumption of both individual handling cycles and the total consumption of all handling equipment installed at the terminal. This required obtaining detailed information about the operational parameters of the handling equipment, which directly influence energy consumption. Using these parameters and the equations outlined in Stage III, the energy consumption for a single loading cycle was calculated for each type of handling equipment. Based on the total number of loading operations and model constraints, the total energy consumption of the terminal was estimated for various workload scenarios. In this phase of the study, numerous test calculations were performed. The analysis of testing parameters and the specified terminal layout revealed that energy consumption per cycle varies by equipment type: rail-mounted gantry cranes consume between 5.23 and 8.62 kWh, rubber-tired gantry cranes consume between 3.86 and 7.5 kWh, and automated guided vehicles consume approximately 0.8 kWh per cycle. All handling equipment, based on the adopted assumptions, will consume between 2200 and 13,470 kWh per day. Based on the testing results, a methodology was developed to aid intermodal terminal designers in estimating energy consumption based on variations in input parameters. The results closely align with those reported in the global literature, demonstrating that the methodology proposed in this article provides an accurate approach for estimating energy consumption at intermodal terminals. This method is also suited for use in ex ante cost–benefit analysis. A sensitivity analysis revealed the key variables and parameters that have the greatest impact on unit energy consumption per handling cycle. These included the transshipment yard’s dimensions, the mass of the equipment and cargo, and the nominal specifications of machinery engines. This research is significant for present-day economies heavily reliant on electricity, particularly during the energy transition phase, where efficient management of energy resources and infrastructure is essential. In the case of Poland, where this analysis was conducted, the energy transition involves not only switching handling equipment from combustion to electric power but, more importantly, decarbonizing the energy system. This study is the first to provide a methodology fully based on the design parameters of a planned intermodal terminal, validated with empirical data, enabling the calculation of future energy consumption directly from terminal technical designs. It also fills a critical research gap by enabling ex ante comparisons of energy intensity across transport chains, an area previously constrained by the lack of reliable tools for estimating energy consumption within transshipment terminals. Full article

The imperative of achieving net zero carbon emissions is driving the transition to renewable energy sources. However, this often leads to carbon tunnel vision by narrowly focusing on carbon metrics and overlooking broader sustainability impacts. To enable these broader impacts to be considered, we have developed a generic approach and a freely available assessment tool on GitHub that not only facilitate the high-level sustainability assessment of renewable energy projects but also indicate whether project-level decisions have positive, negative, or neutral impacts on each of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This information highlights potential problem areas and which actions can be taken to increase the sustainability of renewable energy projects. The tool is designed to be accessible and user-friendly by developing it in MS Excel and by only requiring yes/no answers to approximately 60 diagnostic questions. The utility of the approach and tool are illustrated via three desktop case studies performed by the authors. The three illustrative case studies are located in Australia and include a large-scale solar farm, biogas production from wastewater plants, and an offshore wind farm. Results show that the case study projects impact the SDGs in different and unique ways and that different project–level decisions are most influential, highlighting the value of the proposed approach and tool to provide insight into specific projects and their sustainability implications, as well as which actions can be taken to increase project sustainability. Full article