Search Results (533)

The aim of this study is to investigate and demonstrate the role of correction functions and optimisation-based refinement algorithms in enhancing the performance of machine learning models, particularly in predictive anomaly detection tasks applied in industrial environments. The performance of machine learning models is highly dependent on the quality of data preprocessing, model architecture, and post-processing methodology. In many practical applications—particularly in time-series forecasting and anomaly detection—the conventional training pipeline alone is insufficient, because model uncertainty, structural bias and the handling of rare events require specialised post hoc calibration and refinement mechanisms. This study provides a systematic overview of the role of correction functions (e.g., Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Squared Prediction Error (SPE)/Q-statistics, Hotelling’s T², Bayesian calibration) and adaptive improvement algorithms (e.g., Genetic Algorithms (GA), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), Simulated Annealing (SA), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and ensemble-based techniques) in enhancing the performance of machine learning pipelines. The models were trained on a real industrial dataset compiled from power network analytics and harmonic-injection-based loading conditions. Model validation and equipment-level testing were performed using a large-scale harmonic measurement dataset collected over a five-year period. The reliability of the approach was confirmed by comparing predicted state transitions with actual fault occurrences, demonstrating its practical applicability and suitability for integration into predictive maintenance frameworks. The analysis demonstrates that correction functions introduce deterministic transformations in the data or error space, whereas improvement algorithms apply adaptive optimisation to fine-tune model parameters or decision boundaries. The combined use of these approaches significantly reduces overfitting, improves predictive accuracy and lowers false alarm rates. This work introduces the concept of an Organically Adaptive Predictive (OAP) ML model. The proposed model presents organic adaptivity, continuously adjusting its predictive behaviour in response to dynamic variations in network loading and harmonic spectrum composition. The introduced terminology characterises the organically emergent nature of the adaptive learning mechanism. Full article

The paper presents a comprehensive methodological system for assessing the level of economic security of Russian regions, based on the synthesis of several complementary approaches and accounting for regional specifics. The central idea is a shift from static monitoring to dynamic analysis, which allows not only for capturing the current state but also for identifying the direction and stability of trends over time. The proposed methodology based on four stages: forming a set of indicators, normalizing their values, aggregating them into integral indices, and then visualizing them for operational decision-making. An important feature of sustainable development is the introduction of mechanisms to account for regional specifics through the clustering of regions and adjustment coefficients, which helps to mitigate the influence of geographical and structural differences on the results comparability. Together, they form an integrated system for diagnosing, planning, and monitoring the economic security of regions. The paper provides examples of threshold values for indicators such as the share of households with internet access, the length of the road network, birth rate, the volume of building commissioning, and innovation expenditures. A classification of regions into stability zones and recommendations for policy measures within each zone accompany the threshold analysis. In particular, for digitalization and transport infrastructure, measures are proposed to enhance monitoring, improve service accessibility, and invest in infrastructure; for the demographic component, measures are proposed to support families and improve quality of life. The practical significance of the research lies in creating a universal, yet flexible, toolkit for monitoring, ranking, and planning regional policy in the field of economic security. The proposed system was designed for application both at the federal level and for interregional analysis, including scenario planning and modeling the impact of management decisions. Thus, this study contributes to the literature by bridging the theory of economic security, the imperatives of sustainable regional development, and the practical potential of information technologies. It offers a concrete, scalable methodology for transforming regional economic security management into a data-driven, forward-looking, and context-sensitive process. In the future, the authors intend to further develop the methodology by considering the sectoral specialization of regions, integrating with medium- and long-term forecasting systems, and creating an automated monitoring platform. Full article

Shore power (SP) is a critical solution for decarbonizing maritime transport, yet its adoption is hindered by the “high investment, low utilization” paradox, driven by high initial costs and misaligned incentives between ports and ships. While government subsidies are essential, traditional static policy designs often fail to adapt to the complex, non-linear dynamics of technology diffusion. To address this, the study proposes a dynamic evaluation framework combining System Dynamics (SD) with Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), embedding a Rolling Horizon Optimization algorithm. Using Shanghai Port as a case study, simulation results demonstrate that optimal subsidies are highly state-dependent. Specifically, effective promotion requires prioritizing ship-side incentives during the early start-up phase, followed by facilities subsidies supporting the coordinated evolution of both ships and berths, and finally a market-driven exit. Furthermore, the proposed dynamic strategy demonstrates superior robustness against oil price volatility and demand shocks compared to static policies, while strictly complying with fiscal budget caps. This framework provides a foundation for the adaptive management of green port infrastructure, facilitating the advancement of energy-saving and environmental protection initiatives within the maritime industry. Additionally, it contributes to the forecasting and evaluation of the policy outcomes of green technology adoption. Full article

Nowadays, the emergence of Foundation Models as a Service enables mobile users to access powerful capabilities such as inference and fine-tuning on demand and without incurring local computational overhead. This paper introduces a software-aware offloading framework for FMaaS that allows edge nodes to forecast software aging and prevent service degradation. Each node employs a lightweight Echo State Network to predict its software age, with tasks dynamically assigned based on communication cost, inference delay, and forecast reliability. Simulation results including ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of software age forecasting in reducing task failures and improving session continuity. Full article

Financial markets often display nonlinear and turbulent dynamics during periods of stress, and crude-oil and global equity systems frequently demonstrate closely connected forms of instability. Earlier studies report multifractality, chaotic features and regime-dependent spillovers across commodities and equities, yet existing approaches rarely succeed in capturing both the intrinsic complexity of oil-market behavior and the changing structure of cross-asset dependence. This limitation reduces the ability to distinguish calm from turbulent regimes and weakens short-horizon risk assessment. The present study introduces a unified framework that quantifies and predicts systemic instability within the coupled oil–equity system. The analysis constructs a crude-oil complexity index based on multifractal fluctuation analysis, permutation and approximate entropy, and Lyapunov-based indicators of chaotic dynamics. At the same time, it develops an information-theoretic network of global equity and energy-sector returns and summarizes its instability through measures of edge turnover, spectral radius, degree entropy and strength dispersion. These components are combined to form the Coupled Multiscale Chaos Index (CMCI), a scalar state variable that distinguishes calm, transitional and chaotic market regimes. Empirical results indicate that Brent and WTI exhibit pronounced multifractality, elevated entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, while the dependence network becomes more centralized, more clustered and more capable of shock amplification during high-CMCI states. The CMCI moves closely with realized volatility and provides significant predictive content for five-day variance across major global equity benchmarks, with performance superior to models that rely only on macro-financial controls. Out-of-sample evaluation shows that forecasts incorporating measures of complexity record substantially lower MSE and QLIKE losses. The findings indicate that systemic instability reflects the interaction between local chaotic dynamics in crude-oil markets and turbulence in the global dependence network. The CMCI offers a practical early-warning indicator that supports risk management, forecasting and macroprudential supervision. Full article

Spatio-temporal features are crucial for maritime trajectory forecasting, especially in scenarios involving curved waterways or abrupt changes in ship motion patterns. Although Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, which are widely used for trajectory prediction, inherently include temporal and spatial information, effectively strengthening these features and integrating them into prediction models remains challenging. To address this challenge, we propose a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-Series-cOre Fused Time Series forecaster (SOFTS)-based framework that explicitly couples spatial and temporal features to achieve high-fidelity maritime trajectory forecasting, especially in scenarios with complex spatial patterns. We first employ a CNN-based spatial encoder to hierarchically abstract spatial density distributions through convolution and pooling operations, thereby learning global spatial structure patterns of ship movements. This encoder emphasizes overall spatial morphology rather than precise individual trajectory points. Second, we employ the SOFTS model to incorporate angular velocity, acceleration, and angular acceleration as input features to characterize ship motion states, which can capture the temporal dependencies of ship motion states from multivariate time series. Finally, the spatial embedding features extracted by the CNN are concatenated with the temporal feature representations learned by SOFTS along the feature dimension to form a joint spatiotemporal representation. This representation is then fed into a fusion regression module composed of fully connected layers to predict future ship trajectories. Experimental results on the validation dataset show that the proposed method achieves an MSE of 0.020 and an MAE of 0.060, outperforming several advanced time series forecasting models in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The introduction of angular velocity, acceleration, and angular acceleration features reduces the MSE and MAE by approximately 10.22% and 9.49%, respectively, validating the effectiveness of the introduced dynamic features in improving trajectory prediction performance. These results underscore the proposed method’s potential for intelligent navigation and traffic management systems by effectively enhancing inland river navigation safety and strengthening waterborne traffic monitoring capabilities. Full article

Accurate carbon price forecasting is essential for transforming complex carbon trading markets into efficiently managed and stably operating systems. Existing long-term time series forecasting methods struggle to capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics inherent in carbon prices. To address this limitation, we propose the Temporal Trend and Fluctuation Learning (TTFL) model for interval-valued carbon price forecasting. The model first uses wavelet decomposition to separate the forecasting task into two branches: Price Trend Learning (PTL) and Price Fluctuation Learning (PFL). The PTL branch adopts a forward–backward enhanced Mamba architecture to extract low-frequency, long-term trend features. This design facilitates price interactions across time steps. The enhanced Mamba module leverages a state space model (SSM) to preserve historical information selectively and employs a forgetting gate to recover missing information. As a result, the model captures complementary dependencies across different price points, improving prediction reliability. The PFL branch integrates an attention mechanism with the standard Mamba architecture to model high-frequency temporal dynamics. It provides fine-grained short-term volatility information essential for market participants. We also introduce an interval-valued recovery loss function. This loss quantifies the overlap between predicted and actual interval prices, emphasizes trend learning, and stabilizes model training. We evaluate the TTFL model on three real-world carbon trading markets. Comparative experiments demonstrate that TTFL achieves superior prediction accuracy and robustness relative to baseline methods. Through collaborative learning and selective state space modeling, our approach not only outperforms traditional forecasting models but also offers stakeholders a practical tool for navigating complex carbon market environments. This work contributes a novel forecasting paradigm that integrates multivariate collaborative learning with selective state space modeling. It provides actionable insights for policymaking, investment strategy development, and risk management in the energy and environmental sectors. Full article

Under the framework of the Paris Agreement, carbon trading has emerged as a pivotal market-based instrument for achieving carbon neutrality. Following years of pilot programs, China has taken a critical step toward establishing a unified national carbon market. Consequently, accurate carbon price forecasting is essential for constructing a stable and effective carbon pricing mechanism. However, the 2017 reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) significantly altered the carbon price formation mechanism, exacerbating price volatility and uncertainty. This shift further underscores the urgent need for research into high-precision carbon price forecasting.Existing deep learning models struggle to simultaneously capture short-term high-frequency fluctuations and long-term evolutionary trends within complex carbon market data, a limitation that compromises their prediction accuracy and stability. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a Transformer-based carbon price forecasting model that incorporates an sLSTM structure. By enhancing sequence memory and state update mechanisms, this model effectively improves the capability to model both short-term volatility characteristics and long-term evolutionary patterns of carbon prices. In the data preprocessing phase, Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) is employed to perform multi-scale decomposition of carbon price sequences, effectively mitigating the issue of overlapping fluctuations across different time scales. Furthermore, the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is utilized to optimize the number of decomposition modes and the penalty factor, thereby resolving the parameter sensitivity issues inherent in modal decomposition. Experimental results on real-world carbon price datasets demonstrate that the model achieves an average coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of 0.9862 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of only 0.5607%. These findings indicate that the proposed method possesses significant advantages in characterizing the complex dynamic features of time series, thereby effectively enhancing prediction accuracy.The proposed model can serve as a supportive tool for carbon-market risk monitoring and policy evaluation by identifying abnormal fluctuations and mitigating market inefficiencies caused by information asymmetry. This enhances the stability and predictability of carbon price signals as incentives for emissions reduction, enabling firms to plan abatement pathways and low-carbon investments, and strengthening the sustainable role of carbon markets in achieving carbon neutrality. Full article

Groundwater modeling in semi-arid regions presents significant challenges due to complex aquifer dynamics, limited data availability, and heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions. This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of three fuzzy expert system strategies for monthly groundwater level forecasting in the Al-Hsain Basin, Syria: localized models based on hydrogeographical grouping, a unified basin-wide approach, and an innovative behavioral clustering methodology. Using synchronized rainfall and temperature data from 35 monitoring wells over four years (2020–2024), we developed and evaluated fuzzy inference systems’ directional classification accuracy as the primary performance metric, categorizing groundwater level changes into rise, stable, and decline states rather than predicting continuous values. This choice reflects the qualitative nature of fuzzy expert systems and their suitability for groundwater management under data-limited conditions. The behavioral clustering approach achieved excellent overall performance with a mean accuracy of 0.74, outperforming localized models (0.71) and unified models (0.67). Behavioral clustering demonstrated effectiveness in 66% of wells, with individual accuracy improvements reaching up to 0.23, while reducing model complexity from five group-specific systems to three behaviorally coherent clusters. Localized models achieved optimal performance in 29% of wells where hydrogeological conditions aligned with spatial assumptions, whereas unified models provided consistent moderate performance across 89% of locations. The incorporation of lagged variables and seasonal indices in behavioral clustering models proved essential for capturing temporal complexity in semi-arid groundwater responses. Statistical analysis revealed lower intra-group variability in behavioral clusters (standard deviation 0.06–0.09) than in geographical groupings (0.08–0.14), confirming improved functional homogeneity through response-based organization. These findings indicate that fuzzy modeling strategy selection should be context-dependent, with behavioral clustering offering an effective balance between accuracy, interpretability, and generalization for regional groundwater management applications. The novelty of this work lies in isolating the effect of fuzzy system organization logic (localized, unified, and behavioral) on forecasting performance, robustness, and transferability, evaluated under an identical inference and time-series validation framework. Full article

The rapid growth of vehicle ownership has led to increasingly congested road networks, which significantly reduces the energy efficiency of electric vehicles (EVs) and intensifies user range anxiety. To address these challenges, a dynamic EV route planning process is proposed by integrating traffic flow (TF) prediction, charging service modelling, and time-varying path optimization within a unified framework. First, future TF is predicted using a data-driven forecasting module based on the iTransformer model, which captures multivariate temporal dependencies across road links and provides accurate inputs for downstream decision-making. Based on the predicted traffic states, a time-dependent queuing process is formulated to estimate charging station waiting times by modelling the dynamic interaction between vehicle arrivals and service capacity. These components are then embedded into a time-varying shortest path optimization process that explicitly considers mid-journey charging constraints, with the objective of minimizing total travel time and economic cost. The proposed framework establishes a closed-loop decision-making process that couples traffic evolution, charging service dynamics, and routing behaviour. Extensive comparative experiments against classical Time-Dependent Shortest Path (TDSP) methods under different network scales, together with a real-world case study, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves higher computational efficiency and improved routing performance under dynamic conditions. The results indicate that the proposed process-oriented method provides an effective and practical solution for EV routing in intelligent transportation systems characterized by time-varying traffic and service processes. Full article

Dynamic inductive power transfer (DIPT) can enable dynamic wireless charging for urban micromobility, but deployment is constrained by electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure compliance and by lateral and angular misalignment typical of two-wheeled vehicles. This review consolidates the state of the art and links these constraints to smart grid control and charging optimisation. It frames dynamic charging lanes as corridor infrastructure that behaves as a distributed electrical load whose demand depends on traffic and availability, with segmentation control as a key lever for controllability. It then synthesises practical system architectures that combine power electronics, segmented transmitters, sensing, communication, and supervisory control, because these interfaces determine which degrees of freedom are available to shape demand in space and time. The review also summarises coupler, shielding, and compensation choices that jointly determine efficiency, misalignment robustness, and EMF leakage. Finally, it surveys scheduling methods that incorporate network limits, output from distributed energy resources, and uncertainty through rolling horizon, robust, and risk-constrained formulations. The synthesis supports deployment aligned with renewable integration and sustainable urban mobility, and it highlights open needs in forecasting robustness, scalable optimisation, and secure interoperability. Full article

Short-term wind power prediction is pivotal for maintaining the stability of power grids characterized by high renewable energy penetration. However, wind power time series exhibit complex characteristics, including local turbulence-induced fluctuations and long-term temporal dependencies, which challenge traditional forecasting models. Furthermore, the performance of hybrid deep learning models is often compromised by the difficulty of tuning hyperparameters over non-convex optimization surfaces. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel framework: CPO—BiTCN—BiGRU—Attention. Adopting a physically motivated “Filter–Memorize–Focus” strategy, the model first employs a Bidirectional Temporal Convolutional Network (BiTCN) with dilated causal convolutions to extract multi-scale local features and denoise raw data. Subsequently, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) captures global temporal evolution, while an attention mechanism dynamically weights critical time steps corresponding to ramp events. To mitigate hyperparameter uncertainty, the Crowned Porcupine Optimization (CPO) algorithm is introduced to adaptively tune the network structure, balancing global exploration and local exploitation more effectively than traditional swarm algorithms. Experimental results obtained from real-world wind farm data in Xinjiang, China, demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms State-of-the-Art benchmark models. Compared with the best competing methods, the proposed framework reduces MAE and MAPE by approximately 30–45%, while maintaining competitive RMSE performance, indicating improved average forecasting accuracy and robustness under varying operating conditions. The results confirm that the proposed architecture effectively decouples local noise from global trends, providing a robust and practical solution for short-term wind power forecasting in grid dispatching applications. Full article

Accurate reservoir water level forecasting is essential for water resource management, flood risk mitigation, and hydropower operation. However, it remains challenging due to pronounced geographical heterogeneity and complex multi-scale temporal dynamics. Existing deep-learning approaches typically overlook explicit geographical and climatic conditioning. They struggle to capture temporal dependencies across multiple time scales. They also exhibit limited transferability across reservoirs with similar hydrological characteristics. To address these limitations, this paper proposes GeoFormer, a geography-aware adaptive Transformer framework designed for reservoir water level forecasting across diverse geographical contexts. GeoFormer integrates three key innovations. First, a Geography-Aware Embedding Module conditions temporal representations on geographical location, climate regimes, and reservoir attributes. Second, an Adaptive Multi-Scale Temporal Fusion mechanism dynamically aggregates information across daily, weekly, and monthly temporal resolutions. Third, a Cross-Reservoir Knowledge Transfer strategy enables effective knowledge sharing among hydrologically similar reservoirs. Extensive experiments on six reservoirs distributed across multiple continents and climate zones demonstrate that GeoFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, including iTransformer, DLinear, and Informer. The model achieves average reductions of 23.7% in RMSE, 19.4% in MAE, and 15.8% in MAPE, while maintaining strong robustness and generalization across geographically heterogeneous hydrological systems. Full article

With the increasing penetration of inverter-based photovoltaic (PV) generation, utility-scale grid-connected PV plants are frequently exposed to voltage regulation and voltage stability challenges driven by intermittent irradiance and limited reactive power flexibility under operating constraints. Conventional static Volt/VAR control schemes are typically designed for quasi-steady conditions and therefore struggle to respond to fast variations in PV output and network states. This paper presents a digital twin (DT)-enabled framework for dynamic Volt/VAR optimization in large PV plants. A four-layer DT architecture is developed to achieve real-time cyber-physical synchronization through multi-source data acquisition, secure transmission, fusion, and quality control. To balance model fidelity and computational efficiency, a hybrid physics–data-driven model is constructed, and a local voltage stability L-index is incorporated as an explicit security constraint. A multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to minimize node voltage deviations and reactive power losses while maximizing the static voltage stability margin. The problem is solved using an adaptive parameter particle swarm optimization (AP-PSO) algorithm with dynamic inertia and learning coefficients. Case studies on modified IEEE 33-bus and 53-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method reduces the voltage profile index by up to 68.9%, improves the static voltage stability margin by 76.5%, and shortens optimization time by up to 30.3% compared with conventional control and representative meta-heuristic or learning-based baselines. The framework further shows good scalability and robustness under practical uncertainties, including irradiance forecast errors and measurement noise. Overall, the proposed approach provides a feasible pathway to enhance operational security and efficiency of grid-connected PV plants under high-penetration scenarios. Full article

Traffic forecasting in cellular networks is a challenging spatiotemporal prediction problem due to strong temporal dependencies, spatial heterogeneity across cells, and the need for scalability to large network deployments. Traditional cell-specific models incur prohibitive training and maintenance costs, while global models often fail to capture heterogeneous spatial dynamics. Recent spatiotemporal architectures based on attention or graph neural networks improve accuracy but introduce high computational overhead, limiting their applicability in large-scale or real-time settings. We propose HiSTM (Hierarchical SpatioTemporal Mamba), a spatiotemporal forecasting architecture built on state-space modeling. HiSTM combines spatial convolutional encoding for local neighborhood interactions with Mamba-based temporal modeling to capture long-range dependencies, followed by attention-based temporal aggregation for prediction. The hierarchical design enables representation learning with linear computational complexity in sequence length and supports both grid-based and correlation-defined spatial structures. Cluster-aware extensions incorporate spatial regime information to handle heterogeneous traffic patterns. Experimental evaluation on large-scale real-world cellular datasets demonstrates that HiSTM achieves better accuracy, outperforming strong baselines. On the Milan dataset, HiSTM reduces MAE by 29.4% compared to STN, while achieving the lowest RMSE and highest R² score among all evaluated models. In multi-step autoregressive forecasting, HiSTM maintains 36.8% lower MAE than STN and 11.3% lower than STTRE at the 6-step horizon, with a 58% slower error accumulation rate compared to STN. On the unseen Trentino dataset, HiSTM achieves 47.3% MAE reduction over STN and demonstrates better cross-dataset generalization. A single HiSTM model outperforms 10,000 independently trained cell-specific LSTMs, demonstrating the advantage of joint spatiotemporal learning. HiSTM maintains best-in-class performance with up to 30% missing data, outperforming all baselines under various missing data scenarios. The model achieves these results while being 45× smaller than PredRNNpp, 18× smaller than xLSTM, and maintaining competitive inference latency of 1.19 ms, showcasing its effectiveness for scalable 5/6G traffic prediction in resource-constrained environments. Full article