Search Results (28)

This research paper examines the spatial and time variation of demographic dependency in Europe in a 30-year horizon of the evolution of the demographic dividend regarding the economic dependency ratio (ADR1). We used the Curve Fit Forecast tool to estimate the trends of ADR1 in each of the EU Member States using data on Eurostat projections and a sophisticated geostatistical analysis tool developed in ArcGIS Pro 3.2.2. The findings indicate that the dependency in all countries has increased significantly in a statistically significant manner as the Gompertz function has appeared as the best curve in a third of the cases. It is an S-shaped asymptotic behaviour of this function that effectively describes the nonlinear patterns of acceleration and saturation of demographic ageing. As indicated in the analysis, the European regions are increasingly moving apart, with the southern and eastern nations such as Romania demonstrating the most alarming decline in ADR1. These trends highlight the need to reform labour market policies and social protection mechanisms to an ageing population. The paper combines the curve-fitting, descriptive statistics (median, skewness, interquartile range (IQR)) with time clustering (value, correlation, and Fourier) to provide an effective, replicable approach to early warning and policy prioritisation. Overall, the results highlight the importance of integrating predictive spatial modelling and demographic economics to support anticipatory and evidence-based policy decisions. The proposed approach proves to be a robust and transferable framework, applicable to a wide range of socio-economic phenomena characterised by inertia and structural change. Future research should extend the analysis to subnational levels, incorporate additional explanatory variables, and develop scenario-based simulations, including multivariate Gompertz-type models, to further enhance both predictive accuracy and policy relevance in the context of emerging structural labour scarcity. Full article

High population growth across developing Pacific countries has increased the share of young people, creating potential for a demographic dividend alongside accelerating digitalisation driven by technology transfer. This study empirically investigates the dynamic relationship between the demographic dividend, digitalisation (ICT access), and economic growth. An endogenous growth framework is employed and extended to incorporate demographic change and information technology adoption, along with education (human capital) and renewable energy use to capture the broader dimensions of sustainable economic growth. The results show that both the demographic dividend and ICT are positively associated with per capita income. Moreover, technology adoption and the demographic dividend exhibit a complementary relationship, implying that improvements in one reinforce the growth effects of the other, while education exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. In contrast, renewable energy shows a positive but statistically insignificant effect, suggesting its role is emerging but important for long-term sustainability. In assessing the determinants of digitalisation, the findings indicate that demographic structure and urbanisation contribute positively; however, a substantial share of variation in digitalisation is explained by income levels and mobile phone technology. These results highlight the importance of policies that leverage demographic transition through education and digital technologies, and sustainable energy transitions to accelerate sustainable economic growth and improve welfare outcomes in Pacific developing economies. Full article

Maintaining stability in rural labor markets and enhancing labor employment stickiness (RLFS) are essential for alleviating the persistent outflow of rural labor. Based on data from the 2014–2022 China Family Panel Studies and Treating whether digital rural development plans were issued as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a staggered difference-in-differences model to evaluate the impact of digital rural development policy implementation on RLFS. Meanwhile, we also explore the potential mechanisms through which the policy affects RLFS by combining the analysis with Order Logit model. The results show that the implementation of the digital rural development policy significantly increases RLFS, and these findings remain robust after a series of checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy improves RLFS by strengthening rural workers’ embeddedness in local social networks, enhancing digital literacy and physical health, reducing speculative motives, and expanding local labor demand. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the policy has stronger positive effects on RLFS among younger and middle-aged individuals, those with lower levels of human capital, and those engaged in agricultural work and that it is more effective in regions with diminishing demographic dividends and weaker land resource endowments. Further analysis suggests that although the policy increases the employment stickiness of younger rural workers and agricultural laborers, it does not improve the efficiency of rural land use. Therefore, the government should continue expanding the coverage of the digital rural development policy to fully leverage its positive effects on rural labor markets while also adjusting existing policy instruments to identify the key channels through which digital technologies can enhance land use efficiency. Full article

China has entered an era of population decline, yet urbanization continues as rural-to-urban migration persists. This demographic transition has prompted a strategic shift in urban development from extensive spatial expansion toward quality-oriented, intensive growth models. However, evolving human–land supply–demand dynamics in cities historically characterized by population inflows remain insufficiently understood. This study focuses on Xiamen, a prototypical coastal migrant-receiving city, to investigate land use simulation under demographic transition. By integrating the cohort-component method with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, we project Xiamen’s population under three scenarios by 2030: Stable Continuation (SCS), Natural Development (NDS), and National 2030 Population Planning (NPP), with projected increases of 5.56%, 6.76%, and 24.69%, respectively. Results show continued but decelerating population growth, with adequate labor supply and persistent demographic dividend. Notably, the NPP scenario reveals a negative correlation between population growth and construction land expansion. In NPP-High, prioritizing compact development and ecological conservation, population grows by 1.27 million while construction land decreases by 2.85% and forest land increases by 4.09%. This framework provides empirical evidence for compact urban development under the dual constraints of land-use efficiency and ecological protection. Full article

As hybrid organizations that combine market-related logic with social logic, social enterprises (SEs) play a crucial role in addressing the challenges faced by people in employment while creating economic benefits through innovative solutions to drive economic and social rural revitalization. Focusing on social enterprises, this study employs environmental analysis and theoretical reasoning to examine the logic and approaches through which social enterprises participate in rural revitalization in China’s northwest regions from the perspective of “new-quality productive forces.” Research findings indicate that in the face of an external environment characterized by weakened investment and consumption and the decline of the demographic dividend, and an internal environment marked by lagging socio-economic development and ecological fragility, SEs should integrate devotion and profit logic based on a mixed action logic of multi-value co-creation. Through approaches such as cultivating new quality talent, constructing a new quality industrial system, shaping a new quality rural environment, promoting synergistic innovation between science and technology and culture, and actively participating in the revitalization of rural areas in China’s northwest region, SEs can play an active role in China’s rural revitalization efforts. Full article

The demographic transition that accompanies the urbanization transformation has a key impact on land use efficiency. This study applies the PVAR, SDM, and threshold models to investigate the influence of China’s demographic dividend composition on urban land use efficiency, aiming to provide guidance for the strategic management and allocation of demographic resources, thereby optimizing urban land resource utilization. The key findings are as follows: (1) Spatial effects reveal that the scale and structural dividends of the population size dividend significantly inhibit urban land use efficiency, whereas the technological dividend of the population quality dividend initially restrains but ultimately enhances it. The combined impact of quantitative and qualitative demographic dividends on land use efficiency is most pronounced in the west and least in the east. High population provinces see significant land use efficiency benefits, contrasting with medium and low population provinces. (2) Both population size and quality dividends exhibit a single-threshold effect on land use efficiency. In summary, cultivating diverse talents with superior technical skills is essential for fostering the upgrade of new industrialization models, ultimately significantly enhancing land use efficiency. Full article

The demographic dividend plays an important role in promoting sustainable development in China. Here, we ask the question of how to use the digital economy to coordinate the “one body and two sides” of the demographic dividend. This study empirically examines the impact of digital economic development on the demographic dividend in a multidimensional way based on the panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2020. The study results show that (1) the digital economy significantly promotes the demographic quality dividend but exhibits a suppressive effect on the demographic quantity dividend; (2) the digital economy can indirectly influence the demographic quality and quantity dividends through urbanization; (3) when examining the threshold effects, the study uncovers noteworthy dynamics, whereby the urbanization levels serve as significant thresholds, showcasing “diminishing marginal effects” in the digital economy’s influence on both population quantity and quality dividends; (4) digital economic development has a positive spillover effect on the demographic quantity dividend in adjacent areas. By clarifying these dynamics, the research results provide valuable insights into China’s sustainable use of the digital economy to create a demographic dividend. Full article

With the demographic dividend disappearing, the key to achieving high-quality development in China is to promote full employment of the workforce. Women are a significant group in the job market, but they frequently face greater pressure and higher employment thresholds. Ensuring high-quality employment for women will be one of the most important tasks in the future. Based on the China Family Panel Studies data, this paper uses two-way fixed effects models, causal stepwise regression analysis, and structural equation models to study the impact of digital transformation of households on female employment and how it works. The empirical results show that digital transformation of households significantly promotes female employment. For low-security employment and high-security employment, the promotion effect of digital transformation is significant. Further mechanism analysis shows that digital transformation of households mainly increases women’s human capital, improves their search for information, and stimulates improvements in social skills, thus effectively eliminating employment-related gender discrimination and ultimately promoting women’s employment. This paper can provide a significant reference for alleviating female employment pressure, promoting full employment, and achieving high-quality development in the context of digital transformation. Full article

The sustainable development of China’s economy requires better allocation of labor across regions and sectors in the face of the vanishing of demographic dividends. Based on the panel data of 276 cities from 2007 to 2019, this study explores the influence of China’s high-speed rail network on the coupling coordination level between employment and output in different industries. This paper has also tested the dynamics of this effect with four different time periods. The heterogeneity of levels of city clusters is also investigated by dividing all the city samples into four groups according to the levels of city clusters, namely first tier, second tier, third tier, and non-cluster. The following conclusions are drawn. First, a high-speed rail network only positively influences the employment–output coupling coordination level of the tertiary industry while having a negative effect on the other two. Second, the higher the level of city cluster that one city has, the greater the impact of the high-speed rail. Third, the high-speed rail network’s positive effect on the secondary industry tends to become negative in the longer term, while the positive impact on the tertiary industry lasts. This study provides a reference for making full use of transport infrastructures to promote the reasonable distribution of labor resources. Full article

Given the progression of population aging in China, does the diminishing demographic dividend boost the promotion of investment abroad in the form of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI)? This empirical study focused on the influence of population aging on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decisions and its underlying mechanisms. The research found that population aging has a significant positive effect on the level of OFDI. This effect is particularly pronounced in the eastern and central regions, while not statistically significant in the western region. Furthermore, population aging has a significant impact on the factor cost effect and the technological progress effect. The former is characterized by increased labor costs, while the latter is associated with technological advancements. The study confirmed that population aging positively influences OFDI changes through these two mechanisms. The empirical results hold statistically significant after multiple robustness checks. This study holds a significant reference value in advancing the facilitation of high-level opening-up polices and policy coordination to effectively address the challenges posed by population aging. Full article

This paper reviews the concept of the demographic dividend and the empirical evidence therefor. The demographic dividend is mainly the result of fertility decline (lower number of births, lower population growth) which translates into a population age structure with a larger work force (age 15–64) and a smaller proportion of children (age 0–14), together with initially few elderly persons (age 65+). In turn, this favors economic growth, but it also has many consequences for households and for state budgets, as well as long-term consequences for population size and the environment. The first part of this paper shows the small correlations at the national macro-economic level between dependency ratios and economic growth. The second part shows the strong correlations at the household level between levels of fertility, child mortality and modern education. The third part discusses the many other correlates of the demographic dividend. The often-cited and controversial focus of the demographic dividend on economic growth hides many other positive effects of fertility control on households, on state budgets, and, in the long-run, on societies and the environment. Full article

Population issues and population policies have evolved considerably between the 20th and the 21st centuries. In the 1970s, most countries confronted rapid population growth, and this situation was particularly severe in Asia. Today, on the contrary, more than half of the world population is experiencing low fertility and population aging, and several countries with very low fertility are facing the prospect of depopulation. Only one region, i.e., sub-Saharan Africa, still experiences high fertility levels. Similarly, the discussions about whether and how to intervene on population trends have also evolved over the past 70 years. Demographically focused approaches to family planning provision were dominant views in the second half of the 20th century. However, since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, international population policy paradigms have been reframed to stress the freedom of couples and the reproductive rights of individuals. Consequently, policy interventions have favored client-focused and gender-sensitive approaches. Finally, to help chart the way forward, population policies will need to consider several key elements, broadening from a focus on support for family planning to an array of policy instruments including health, education, and culture, all of which shape future populations. This new policy framework includes the prioritization of interventions, policy consensus building, the selection of priority constituencies, the institutionalization and funding of policies, and the promotion of evidence-based and research-driven policies. In addition, in order to adapt their interventions to local contexts, population policies will need to be holistic, to promote integrated interventions, and to align with international development frameworks. Full article

We describe a key moment during the world’s attempt to come to terms with enormously expanding populations. China was an extreme case, both in the magnitude of its population explosion and in its government’s control of reproduction through the One-Child Policy (OCP). The U.S. had been a founder and the main financial supporter of The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Starting in 1998, UNFPA’s program in China attempted to move the OCP away from two decades of coercive family planning and toward acceptance of the women’s rights–centered global consensus that emerged from the 1994 Cairo Conference on Population and Development. In 2001, a conservative U.S. organization, the Population Research Institute, claimed to have gathered evidence of UNFPA’s involvement in Chinese coercion. Although several investigations, including one sent by President George W. Bush himself, refuted this evidence, and UNFPA had used no U.S. funds in China, conservative political power was sufficient to cause President George W. Bush to eliminate all U.S. funding for UNFPA’s activities everywhere in the world. Ironically, this period was exactly when the UNFPA project had shown that coercion was unnecessary. China eventually followed the UNFPA’s lead, liberalizing and eventually ending the OCP. Full article

Developing countries face a significant challenge in sustaining their demographic dividend. However, there are few existing studies that approach this issue from a macroeconomic perspective or through empirical research. This paper aims to systematically analyze the impact of the demographic dividend and education dividend on economic growth. By utilizing China’s empirical evidence and employing the System GMM method, we explore how to improve both dividends. Our main findings can be summarized into three aspects. First, the demographic dividend does not depend on population size alone but also on the size of the labor force. Second, education can improve the demographic dividend and thereby prove the existence of an education dividend. Finally, the effects of the demographic and education dividends vary across regions and stages of development within developing countries. This research enriches the existing literature on education and population age in developing countries. Full article

Owing to low birth rate, the demographic dividend in China is disappearing. It is thus of great significance to study the regional differences and influencing factors of the birth rate, further proposing political advices on how to raise birth rate. In this study, 31 administrative units in China were chosen as the regional targets, and the nonlinear effects of house prices and financial expenditure on birth rate were extensively investigated by using a dynamic panel threshold model. A dynamic panel threshold model with disposable income as threshold variable, house price as independent variable, financial expenditure that concluding education funds and social security as variables influenced by threshold variable was established, which can effectively handle regional heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. The results show that the effect of financial expenditure on birth rate is complex, exhibiting a “S” shape for education funds and an inverted “U” shape for social security. Previous controversial conclusions on the impact of financial expenditure on birth rate in the literature can thereby be reasonably explained. It shows that birth rate is influenced by the lagged birth rate and house prices have negative effects on birth rate. The rationality of the present results has been verified by using consumption and input-output economic theories. Based on the empirical investigation, specific suggestions have been proposed in order to acquire sustainable development of population. Full article