Search Results (84)

The estimation of age-to-age development factors is fundamental to loss reserving, with direct implications for risk management and regulatory compliance in the auto insurance sector. The precise and robust estimation of these factors underpins the credibility of case reserves and the effective management of future claim liabilities. This study investigates the underlying structure and sources of variability in development factor estimates by applying multivariate statistical techniques to the analysis of development triangles. Departing from conventional univariate summaries (e.g., mean or median), we introduce a comprehensive framework that incorporates temporal clustering of development factors and addresses associated modeling complexities, including high dimensionality and temporal dependency. The proposed methodology enhances interpretability and captures latent structures in the data, thereby improving the reliability of reserve estimates. Our findings contribute to the advancement of reserving practices by offering a more nuanced understanding of development factor behavior under uncertainty. Full article

Several authors have advanced the idea that psychedelics such as psilocybin might be effective means for achieving moral bioenhancement (MBE). Here, I discuss some reservations on this assertion from both neuropharmacological and bioethical perspectives, and surmised that there is little, if any, good justification for such a claim. The indication of psychedelics for MBE is undermined by their hallucinogenic properties and the risk of adverse psychosis. There is also a lack of sound bioethical basis for using psychedelics to enhance morality. Based on our current understanding, the use of psychedelics specifically for MBE in healthy individuals would violate the ethical principle of non-maleficence. Unless there is unequivocal demonstration that psychedelics could enhance morality, or that new non-hallucinogenic derivatives become available, an indication for psychedelics in MBE would be untenable. Full article

A two-eyed seeing approach considered Indigenous knowledge and Western science towards eco–health, reconciliation and land back with Fort William First Nation (FWFN) in Ontario, Canada. To map traditional land use, occupancy, and ecological knowledge, we interviewed 49 FWFN members about their hunting, fishing, trapping, plant harvesting, cultural sites, and sacred gatherings on their ancestral land. Their traditional land use and occupancy includes more than 7.5 million ha of their ancestral land. The FWFN members reported many industrial impacts on their reserve and ancestral land. We analyzed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) change over time on FWFN’s ancestral land and the Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper Mill (TBPP)’s National Pollutant Release Inventory data to investigate the FWFN members’ ecohealth concerns. The NDVI analysis revealed large tracts of degraded FWFN’s ancestral land due to logging areas, mining claims, settlements, and paper mills. Mining claims and greenstone belts occupy a quarter of the FWFN members’ ancestral land. The TBPP mill dumped pollution into the Kaministiquia River upstream and upwind of the FWFN community, exposing FWFN members to kilotons of cancerous and other toxic chemicals each year for over a century. Resource extraction and pollution in Northwestern Ontario negatively impacted the human health and ecosystem integrity of FWFN, requiring reconciliation by restoring damaged land and preventing pollution as the starting point for land back. The first step to land back is ending the environmental racism of the TBPP’s pollution directed downstream and downwind of FWFN and protecting ancestral land against logging, mining, and other extractive industries. Full article

The authenticity of classical Arabic poetry has long been challenged by claims that some part of the pre-Islamic poetic heritage should not be attributed to this era. According to these assertions, some of this legacy was produced after the advent of Islam and ascribed, for different reasons, to pre-Islamic poets. As pre-Islamic poets were illiterate, medieval Arabic literature devotees relied on Bedouin oral transmission when writing down and collecting the poems about two centuries later. This process left the identity of the real poets who composed these poems and the period in which they worked unresolved. In this work, we seek to answer the questions of how and to what extent we can identify the period in which classical Arabic poetry was composed, where we exploit modern-day automatic text processing techniques for this aim. We consider a dataset of Arabic poetry collected from the diwans (‘collections of poems’) of thirteen Arabic poets that corresponds to two main eras: the pre-ʿAbbāsid era (covering the period between the 6th and the 8th centuries CE) and the ʿAbbāsid era (starting in the year 750 CE). Some poems in each diwan are considered ‘original’; i.e., poems that are attributed to a certain poet with high confidence. The diwans also include, however, an additional section of poems that are attributed to a poet with reservations, meaning that these poems might have been composed by another poet and/or in another period. We trained a set of machine learning algorithms (classifiers) in order to explore the potential of machine learning techniques to automatically identify the period in which a poem had been written. In the training phase, we represent each poem using various types of features (characteristics) designed to capture lexical, topical, and stylistic aspects of this poetry. By training and assessing automatic models of period prediction using the ‘original’ poetry, we obtained highly encouraging results, measuring between 0.73–0.90 in terms of F1 for the various periods. Moreover, we observe that the stylistic features, which pertain to elements that characterize Arabic poetry, as well as the other feature types, are all indicative of the period in which the poem had been written. We applied the resulting prediction models to poems for which the authorship period is under dispute (‘attributed’) and got interesting results, suggesting that some of the poems may belong to different eras—an issue to be further examined by Arabic poetry researchers. The resulting prediction models may be applied to poems for which the authorship period is under dispute. We demonstrate this research direction, presenting some interesting anecdotal results. Full article

We leverage telematics data on driving behavior variables to assess driver risk and predict future insurance claims in a case study utilising a representative telematics sample. In the study, we aim to categorise drivers according to their driving habits and establish premiums that accurately reflect their driving risk. To accomplish our goal, we employ the two-stage Poisson model, the Poisson mixture model, and the Zero-Inflated Poisson model to analyse the telematics data. These models are further enhanced by incorporating regularisation techniques such as lasso, adaptive lasso, elastic net, and adaptive elastic net. Our empirical findings demonstrate that the Poisson mixture model with the adaptive lasso regularisation outperforms other models. Based on predicted claim frequencies and drivers’ risk groups, we introduce a novel usage-based experience rating premium pricing method. This method enables more frequent premium updates based on recent driving behaviour, providing instant rewards and incentivising responsible driving practices. Consequently, it helps to alleviate cross-subsidization among risky drivers and improves the accuracy of loss reserving for auto insurance companies. Full article

The present study aimed to address the issue of pressure on the remaining populations of the critical endangered species, fan mussel, Pinna nobilis, in the Eastern Mediterranean. Marine professional (shell/fish farmers, divers, fishers, administrators, etc.) stakeholders’ knowledge (n = 151) in Greece reports that there was a reduction (81.6%) of the P. nobilis individuals during the last 15 years, especially in the years 2010–2012 and 2017–2018. Species’ abundance decline is significantly (ρ = 0.293, p < 0.05) correlated over the last 5 years with the observed natural ecosystem degradation. Participants also stated that the main cause was pathogens alone (28.8%) or in combination with (illegal) fishing (17.1%) or pollution (14.4%). Additionally, 88% of them supported a total prohibition on the use of fan mussels for commercial purposes in order to restore stock levels.; 72.4% stated claimed that no appropriate control was in place and that they (>59.4%) were unsure if this monitoring control is carried out by the competent authorities. Marine stakeholders consider the importance of the species for biodiversity preservation (56.1%), environmental education (35.1%), and diving parks (29.7%). They declared that it is important to record-observe P. nobilis conservation reserves regions (42.6%), monitor areas of responsibility (39.9%), participate in the information society/use of social networks (38.5%), and participate in informational meetings (37.9%). The lack of interest among shell/fish farmers to contribute to P. nobilis on-growing farming indicates the ignorance to the potential benefits of the valuable ecosystem services provided by aquaculture through biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, there is a demand for promoting the “conservation aquaculture” concept through its incorporation into marine farming activities supplementary to their core business in “production”. Full article

In order to deal with complex risk scenarios involving claims, uncertainty, and investments, we consider the ruin problems in a compound Poisson risk model with liquid reserves and proportional investments and study the expected discounted penalty function under threshold dividend strategies. Firstly, the integral differential equation of the expected discounted penalty function is derived. Secondly, since the closed-form solution of the equation cannot be obtained, a sinc method is used to obtain the numerical approximation solution of the equation. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the sinc method are illustrated by error analysis. In addition, based on a symmetric jump risk market, we discuss the influence of some parameters on the ruin probability with some examples. This study can help actuaries develop more robust risk management strategies and ensure the long-term stability and profitability of insurance companies. It provides a theoretical basis for actuaries to carry out risk management. Full article

To support the bankability of PV projects, PV manufacturers have been offering one of the longest warranties in the world, typically in the range of 25–30 years. During the warranty period, PV manufacturers guarantee that the degradation of PV modules will not exceed 0.4–0.6% each year, or the buyer can at any time make a claim to the manufacturer for replacement or compensation for the shortfall. Due to its popularity, the performance warranty terms have become more and more competitive each year. However, long-term PV operating data have been very limited and bankruptcy of PV manufacturers has been quite common. Without a proper methodology to assess the adequacy of PV manufacturer’s warranty fund (WF) reserve, the 25-year performance warranty can become empty promises. To ensure sustainable development of the PV industry, this study develops a probability-weighted expected value method to determine the necessary WF reserve based on benchmark field degradation data and prevailing degradation cap of 0.55% per year. The simulation result shows that, unless the manufacturer’s degradation pattern is significantly better than the benchmark degradation profile, 1.302% of the sales value is required for the WF reserve. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that provides WF reserve requirement estimation for 25-year PV performance warranty. The result will provide transparency for PV investors and motivation for PV manufacturers for continuous quality improvement as all such achievement can now be reflected in manufacturers’ annual report result. Full article

This paper addresses the role of the U.S. dollar in fostering global economic growth during the post-war period. The existing literature lacks a comprehensive understanding of the true implications of the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency and a dearth of studies examining its impact. In this study, we explore the dynamic long-run and short-run relationships between cross-border U.S. dollar claims, global GDP, and global trade while gauging the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, we use ARDL methodology for a data set that spans the period of 1980 to 2022. The estimation results reveal a robust long-run relationship between U.S. dollar claims, global GDP and global trade and no clear evidence of asymmetric effects. Our findings are of great significance for monetary authorities, emphasising the need for a nuanced understanding of the implications of the U.S. dollar’s conducive role in shaping global economic dynamics and fostering growth. Full article

Estimating loss reserves is a crucial activity for non-life insurance companies. It involves adjusting the expected evolution of claims over different periods of active policies and their fluctuations. The chain-ladder (CL) technique is recognized as one of the most effective methods for calculating claim reserves in this context. It has become a benchmark within the insurance sector for predicting loss reserves and has been adapted to estimate variability margins. This variability has been addressed through both stochastic and possibilistic analyses. This study adopts the latter approach, proposing the use of the CL framework combined with intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs). While modeling with fuzzy numbers (FNs) introduces only epistemic uncertainty, employing IFNs allows for the representation of bipolar data regarding the feasible and infeasible values of loss reserves. In short, this paper presents an extension of the chain-ladder technique that estimates the parameters governing claim development through intuitionistic fuzzy regression, such as symmetric triangular IFNs. Additionally, it compares the results obtained with this method with those derived from the stochastic chain ladder by England and Verrall. Full article

A highly relevant topic in the actuarial literature is so-called “claim reserving” or “loss reserving”, which involves estimating reserves to be provisioned for pending claims, as they can be deferred over various periods. This explains the proliferation of methods that aim to estimate these reserves and their variability. Regression methods are widely used in this setting. If we model error terms as random variables, the variability of provisions can consequently be modelled stochastically. The use of fuzzy regression methods also allows modelling uncertainty for reserve values using tools from the theory of fuzzy subsets. This study follows this second approach and proposes projecting claim reserves using a generalization of fuzzy numbers (FNs), so-called intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), through the use of intuitionistic fuzzy regression. While FNs allow epistemic uncertainty to be considered in variable estimation, IFNs add bipolarity to the analysis by incorporating both positive and negative information regarding actuarial variables. Our analysis is grounded in the ANOVA two-way framework, which is adapted to the use of intuitionistic regression. Similarly, we compare our results with those obtained using deterministic and stochastic chain-ladder methods and those obtained using two-way statistical ANOVA. Full article

This study delves into a critical examination of the Size of Loss distribution patterns in the context of auto insurance during pre- and post-pandemics, emphasizing their profound influence on insurance pricing and regulatory frameworks. Through a comprehensive analysis of the historical Size of Loss data, insurers and regulators gain essential insights into the probabilities and magnitudes of insurance claims, informing the determination of precise insurance premiums and the management of case reserving. This approach aids in fostering fair competition, ensuring equitable premium rates, and preventing discriminatory pricing practices, thereby promoting a balanced insurance landscape. The research further investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these Size of Loss patterns, given the substantial shifts in driving behaviours and risk landscapes. Also, the research contributes to the literature by addressing the need for more studies focusing on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on pre- and post-pandemic auto insurance loss patterns, thus offering a holistic perspective encompassing both insurance pricing and regulatory dimensions. Full article

The study compares model approaches in predictive modeling for claim frequency and severity within the cross-border cargo insurance domain. The aim is to identify the optimal model approach between generalized linear models (GLMs) and advanced machine learning techniques. Evaluations focus on mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) metrics to comprehensively assess predictive performance. For frequency prediction, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) demonstrates the lowest MAE, indicating higher accuracy compared to gradient boosting machines (GBMs) and a generalized linear model (Poisson). Despite XGBoost’s lower MAE, it shows higher RMSE values, suggesting a broader error spread and larger magnitudes compared to gradient boosting machines (GBMs) and a generalized linear model (Poisson). Conversely, the generalized linear model (Poisson) showcases the best RMSE values, indicating tighter clustering and smaller error magnitudes, despite a slightly higher MAE. For severity prediction, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) displays the lowest MAE, implying better accuracy. However, it exhibits a higher RMSE, indicating wider error dispersion compared to a generalized linear model (Gamma). In contrast, a generalized linear model (Gamma) demonstrates the lowest RMSE, portraying tighter clustering and smaller error magnitudes despite a higher MAE. In conclusion, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) stands out in mean absolute error (MAE) for both frequency and severity prediction, showcasing superior accuracy. However, a generalized linear model (Gamma) offers a balance between accuracy and error magnitude, and its performance outperforms extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting machines (GBMs) in terms of RMSE metrics, with a slightly higher MAE. These findings empower insurance companies to enhance risk assessment processes, set suitable premiums, manage reserves, and accurately forecast claim occurrences, contributing to competitive pricing for clients while ensuring profitability. For cross-border trade entities, such as trucking companies and cargo owners, these insights aid in improved risk management and potential cost savings by enabling more reasonable insurance premiums based on accurate predictive claims from insurance companies. Full article

One of the challenges in the healthcare sector is making accurate forecasts across insurance years for claims reserve. Healthcare claims present huge variability and heterogeneity influenced by random decisions of the courts and intrinsic characteristics of the damaged parties, which makes traditional methods for estimating reserves inadequate. We propose a new methodology to estimate claim reserves in the healthcare insurance system based on generalized linear models using the Overdispersed Poisson distribution function. In this context, we developed a method to estimate the parameters of the quasi-likelihood function using a Gauss–Newton algorithm optimized through a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm plays a crucial role in glimpsing the position of the global minimum to ensure a correct convergence of the Gauss–Newton method, where the choice of the initial guess is fundamental. This methodology is applied as a case study to the healthcare system of the Tuscany region. The results were validated by comparing them with state-of-the-art measurement of the confidence intervals of the Overdispersed Poisson distribution parameters with better outcomes. Hence, local healthcare authorities could use the proposed and improved methodology to allocate resources dedicated to healthcare and global management. Full article

Rabies, caused by the Lyssavirus genus, is a highly lethal zoonotic disease transmitted by animals such as bats and domestic and wild carnivores to humans, claiming nearly 100% of lives. In Brazil, recent evidence suggests an increasing role of bats in human deaths from rabies, particularly in the Amazon region. This neglected tropical disease disproportionately affects impoverished and vulnerable populations in rural areas, where approximately 80% of human cases are concentrated. This article presents research conducted in riverine communities of the Tapajós/Arapiuns Extractive Reserve in Brazil to combat rabies in September 2022. The study adopted a participatory and collaborative approach, involving community members, healthcare professionals, and educators. Prioritizing proactive interventions, the health team administered prophylactic vaccinations to 30 individuals residing in communities exposed to the Lyssavirus. Educational activities focused on dispelling myths and raising awareness about preventive measures, with 100% of individuals reporting prior doubts about the disease, emphasizing the essential nature of the clarification, especially regarding preventive aspects. This study underscores the importance of community involvement, personalized interventions, and ongoing education to effectively combat rabies. By reinforcing public health policies and promoting health education, we can empower communities to take proactive measures in rabies prevention, leading to a reduction in incidence and an improvement in quality of life. Full article