Search Results (7)

In tennis, where performance is governed by complex kinetic chain interactions, objective skill classification is vital for coaching and talent identification. This study presents a hierarchical deep learning framework leveraging synchronized bilateral Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) data from 39 participants (11 elite, 28 amateur). The proposed system successfully distinguishes expertise levels across a total of 4594 strokes, including augmented samples. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Network-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-BiLSTM) architecture was developed to autonomously extract spatiotemporal features from the raw kinematic signals of forehand, backhand, service, and volley strokes. The proposed model achieved an accuracy of 95.54%, significantly outperforming both traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art deep learning benchmarks. Qualitative t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) analyses revealed that elite athletes form highly homogeneous clusters in the feature space. Furthermore, quantitative Asymmetry Index assessments confirmed that professionals exhibit superior bilateral coordination stability. These findings demonstrate that the proposed end-to-end system offers a robust, field-applicable solution for identifying technical excellence. It provides coaches with reliable digital biomarkers, thereby overcoming the limitations of subjective visual observation. Full article

One of the major challenges in autonomous path following for unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) is the impact of stochastic environmental forces—primarily wind, waves and currents—which introduce nonlinearities that affect control models. Conventional strategies often rely on minimizing cross-track error, resulting in a reactive system that corrects heading only after a disturbance has displaced the vessel, potentially leading to oscillatory behavior and reduced precision. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is successfully used for a wide range of nonlinear control tasks. It has already been shown that robust solutions that can handle disturbances such as sensor noise or changes in system dynamics can be obtained. This study investigates whether an agent, provided it can explicitly observe disturbances, can go beyond simply correcting deviations and autonomously learn the correlation between environmental conditions and necessary counter-forces. We show that integrating the wind vector directly into the agent’s observation space allows a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) policy to decouple the environmental cause from the kinematic effect, facilitating drift compensation before significant errors accumulate. By systematically comparing agents trained with randomized wind scenarios, we found that agents that can observe the wind can achieve goal reaching rates of up to 99.0% and reduce the spread of path deviation and velocity in our tested scenarios. Furthermore, our results quantify a distinct Pareto frontier between navigational velocity and tracking precision, demonstrating that explicit disturbance perception improves consistency, although robust implicit training already provides substantial resilience. These findings indicate that augmenting state observations with environmental data enhances the stability of learning-based controllers. Full article

Urban welfare can deteriorate over a few weeks, yet most official indicators are only updated quarterly. This mismatch in time scales leaves city administrations effectively blind to the early stages of emerging crises, especially in areas where vulnerable residents generate few administrative or digital records. We cast urban socioeconomic monitoring as a systems problem: a six-dimensional welfare state on a spatial grid, observed through sparse delayed administrative data and noisy digital traces whose reliability declines with digital exclusion. On top of this latent state, we design a four-layer cyber–physical–social (CPSS) architecture centered on a stochastic state-space model with empirically guided couplings. This is supported by a semantic sensing layer where large language models (LLMs) convert daily geo-referenced public text into noisy welfare indicators. These signals are then fused with quarterly administrative records via an extended Kalman filter (EKF). Finally, a lightweight convex post-processing layer enforces fairness, differential privacy, and minimum representation as hard constraints. A key ingredient is a state-dependent noise model in which the LLM observation variance grows exponentially with digital exclusion. Under this model, we study finite-horizon observability and obtain an exclusion threshold beyond which several welfare dimensions become effectively unobservable over 30–60 day horizons; EKF error bounds scale with the same exponent, clarifying when semantic sensing is informative and when it is not. Finally, a 100,000-agent agent-based model of a synthetic city with daily shocks suggests that, relative to a quarterly-only baseline, the LLM-augmented fusion pipeline substantially reduces detection lags and multi-dimensional cascade failures while keeping estimation error bounded and satisfying the explicit fairness and privacy constraints. Full article

We present a mortality model where future stochastic changes in population-wide mortality are driven by a finite-state hierarchical Markov chain. A baseline mortality in an initial ‘Alive’ state is calculated as the average logarithm of the observed mortality rates. There are several more ‘Alive’ states and a jump to the next ‘Alive’ state leads to a change (typically, an improvement) in mortality. In order to estimate the model parameters, we minimized a weighted average quadratic distance between the observed mortality rates and expected mortality rates. A two-step estimation procedure was used, and a closed-form solution for the optimal estimates of model parameters was derived in the first step, which means that the model could be parameterized very fast and efficiently. The model was then extended to allow for age effects whereby stochastic mortality improvements also depend on age. Forecasting relies on state space augmentation and an innovations state space time series model. We show that, in terms of forecasting, our model outperforms a naïve model of static mortality within a few years. The Markov approach also permits an exact computation of mortality indices, such as the complete expectation of life and annuity present values, which are key in the life insurance and pension industries. Full article

The dynamic interaction between vehicle, roughness, and foundation is a fundamental problem in road management and also a complex problem, with their coupled and nonlinear behavior. Thus, in this study, the vehicle–pavement–foundation interaction model was formulated to incorporate the mass inertia of the vehicle, stochastic roughness, and non-uniform and deformable foundation. Herein, a quarter-car model was considered, a filtered white noise model was formulated to represent the road roughness, and a two-layered foundation was employed to simulate the road structure. To represent the non-uniform foundation, stiffness and damping coefficients were assumed to vary either in a linear or in a quadratic manner. Subsequently, an augmented state-space representation was formulated for the entire system. The time-varying equation governing the covariance of the response was solved to examine the vehicle response, subject to various foundation properties. Finally, a linear discriminant analysis method was employed for classifying the foundation types. The performance of the classifier was validated by test sets, which contained 100 cases for each foundation type. The results showed an accuracy of over 90%, indicating that the machine learning-based classification of the foundation had the potential of using vehicle responses in road managements. Full article

Reliable energy models are needed to determine building energy performance. Relatively detailed energy models can be auto-generated based on 3D shape representations of existing buildings. However, parameters describing thermal performance of the building fabric, the technical systems, and occupant behavior are usually not readily available. Calibration with on-site measurements is needed to obtain reliable energy models that can offer insight into buildings’ actual energy performances. Here, we present an energy model that is suitable for district-heated multifamily buildings, based on a 14-node thermal network implementation of the ISO 52016-1:2017 standard. To better account for modeling approximations and noisy inputs, the model is converted to a stochastic state-space model and augmented with four additional disturbance state variables. Uncertainty models are developed for the inputs solar heat gains, internal heat gains, and domestic hot water use. An iterated extended Kalman filtering algorithm is employed to enable nonlinear state estimation. A Bayesian calibration procedure is employed to enable assessment of parameter uncertainty and incorporation of regulating prior knowledge. A case study is presented to evaluate the performance of the developed framework: parameter estimation with both dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and penalized maximum likelihood estimation, the behavior of the filtering algorithm, the impact of different commonly occurring data sources for domestic hot water use, and the impact of indoor air temperature readings. Full article

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) are powerful probabilistic representations that model stochastic processes. They consist of a prior network, representing the distribution over the initial variables, and a set of transition networks, representing the transition distribution between variables over time. It was shown that learning complex transition networks, considering both intra- and inter-slice connections, is NP-hard. Therefore, the community has searched for the largest subclass of DBNs for which there is an efficient learning algorithm. We introduce a new polynomial-time algorithm for learning optimal DBNs consistent with a breadth-first search (BFS) order, named bcDBN. The proposed algorithm considers the set of networks such that each transition network has a bounded in-degree, allowing for p edges from past time slices (inter-slice connections) and k edges from the current time slice (intra-slice connections) consistent with the BFS order induced by the optimal tree-augmented network (tDBN). This approach increases exponentially, in the number of variables, the search space of the state-of-the-art tDBN algorithm. Concerning worst-case time complexity, given a Markov lag m, a set of n random variables ranging over r values, and a set of observations of N individuals over T time steps, the bcDBN algorithm is linear in N, T and m; polynomial in n and r; and exponential in p and k. We assess the bcDBN algorithm on simulated data against tDBN, revealing that it performs well throughout different experiments. Full article