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18 pages, 12550 KiB  
Article
Rare Metal (Li–Ta–Nb) Mineralization and Age of the Kvartsevoye Pegmatite Deposit (Eastern Kazakhstan)
by Tatyana A. Oitseva, Sergey V. Khromykh, Anna V. Naryzhnova, Pavel D. Kotler, Marina A. Mizernaya, Oxana N. Kuzmina and Artem K. Dremov
Minerals 2025, 15(7), 737; https://doi.org/10.3390/min15070737 - 15 Jul 2025
Viewed by 270
Abstract
The Kalba–Narym metallogenic belt is located in East Kazakhstan, which displays rare metal mineralization. The Kvartsevoye rare metal Li–Ta–Nb deposit is located in the north-western ore district. This study presents the results of geological, mineralogical, geochemical, and geochronological analyses of rare metal granite [...] Read more.
The Kalba–Narym metallogenic belt is located in East Kazakhstan, which displays rare metal mineralization. The Kvartsevoye rare metal Li–Ta–Nb deposit is located in the north-western ore district. This study presents the results of geological, mineralogical, geochemical, and geochronological analyses of rare metal granite pegmatites. Rare metal mineralization belongs to a field of variably differentiated pegmatites, including barren, quartz–albite–muscovite, muscovite, and muscovite–quartz–albite microcline mineral associations. This study established that the rare metal mineralization is localized in the quartz–albite–muscovite zone. The main concentrator minerals of rare metals are spodumene for Li and tantalite–columbite for Ta and Nb. Ar/Ar dating of the muscovite allowed us to establish the age of mineralization during the period of 288–285 Ma. The present study enabled the linkage of rare metal mineralization with the differentiation processes of the granites of the Kalba complex. Full article
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13 pages, 362 KiB  
Article
SNP Effects on Yield and Agronomic Traits in an International Winter Wheat Collection Grown in Western Siberia
by Vladimir Shamanin, Sergey Shepelev, Alexandr Kovalchuk, Alexey Morgounov, Yerlan Turuspekov and Inna Pototskaya
Crops 2025, 5(4), 41; https://doi.org/10.3390/crops5040041 - 10 Jul 2025
Viewed by 260
Abstract
The extension of genetic diversity is the basis for yield and adaptability improvements of winter wheat varieties under climate fluctuations. In the present study, an international collection consisting of 96 winter bread wheat accessions from Russia, Germany, Finland, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, Turkey, the USA, [...] Read more.
The extension of genetic diversity is the basis for yield and adaptability improvements of winter wheat varieties under climate fluctuations. In the present study, an international collection consisting of 96 winter bread wheat accessions from Russia, Germany, Finland, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, Turkey, the USA, and the international programme (Turkey–CIMMYT–ICARDA) was analysed under the conditions of Western Siberia during three growing seasons. Yield and yield-related traits were recorded following standard agronomy practices. Genotyping of the germplasm panel was conducted using 55 KASP markers at the Institute of Plant Biology and Biotechnology (Kazakhstan). The yield had a high correlation with the number of fertile tillers per unit area (0.68), which indicates significant yield reduction in wheat accessions from different origins that are not adaptive to the conditions of Western Siberia. The main stable QTLs associated with yield-related traits during two growing seasons, ippb_ta_1147 (1A), ippb_ta_107 (4A), ippb_ta_239 (5D), and ippb_ta_283 (6A), can be used in MAS for the improvement of yield and related traits. The outperforming genotypes Zhiva, Zolushka, Doneko, Line K 18918, Line 2293; CO13D1299, KS13DH0030-32, Gondvana//HBK0935-29-15/KS90W077-2-2/VBF0589-1… are recommended to be included in hybridisation programmes and represent promising sources for breeding high-yielding and climate-resilient winter wheat. Full article
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16 pages, 1733 KiB  
Article
Comprehensive Analysis of Formation Water Microorganisms for Their Biosurfactant Potential in MEOR Applications
by Gulzhan Kaiyrmanova, Ulzhan Shaimerdenova, Alisher Assylbek, Almira Amirgaliyeva, Arailym Yerzhan and Aliya Yernazarova
Fermentation 2025, 11(7), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/fermentation11070367 - 26 Jun 2025
Viewed by 508
Abstract
The study is devoted to the analysis of the physicochemical parameters of formation waters, the metagenomic composition of the microbial community and the characteristics of bacterial isolates from the oil fields of Western Kazakhstan to assess their potential in microbial-enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) [...] Read more.
The study is devoted to the analysis of the physicochemical parameters of formation waters, the metagenomic composition of the microbial community and the characteristics of bacterial isolates from the oil fields of Western Kazakhstan to assess their potential in microbial-enhanced oil recovery (MEOR) technologies. Analyses revealed an adaptation of local microorganisms to extreme conditions of high salinity, temperature and pressure, with the dominant presence of Proteobacteria, including the genus Marinobacter. Screening isolates for biosurfactant synthesis showed a high activity of strains M22-7, M93-8C and M142-2, capable of reducing surface tension to 28.81 ± 0.6 mN/m and forming emulsions. Genetic analysis confirmed the presence of key genes (srfAA, srfp) responsible for surfactin synthesis, but the absence of lchAA and rhlAA indicates that the synthesis of other types of biosurfactants is limited. The results highlight the promise of developing microbial consortia and using biosurfactants in high-salinity environments to enhance oil recovery. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Industrial Fermentation)
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22 pages, 3588 KiB  
Article
Trace Metal and Metalloid Profiles in Hair Samples from Children in the Oil-Producing Region of Kazakhstan
by Gulnara Batyrova, Victoria Kononets, Gulmira Umarova, Gulaim Taskozhina, Yeskendir Umarov, Zhamilya Issanguzhina, Khatimya Kudabayeva and Rabbil Batyrov
Toxics 2025, 13(7), 522; https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics13070522 - 21 Jun 2025
Viewed by 496
Abstract
Toxic elements are considered a significant threat to public health in oil-producing countries. Western Kazakhstan is experiencing serious environmental problems due to the development of the oil and gas industry. This study aimed to assess the concentrations of toxic trace elements—aluminum (Al), arsenic [...] Read more.
Toxic elements are considered a significant threat to public health in oil-producing countries. Western Kazakhstan is experiencing serious environmental problems due to the development of the oil and gas industry. This study aimed to assess the concentrations of toxic trace elements—aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb)—in the hair of children residing in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas-producing region, and to evaluate the relationship between the concentration of toxic elements and the remoteness of their residence from oil and gas fields. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted involving 1595 school-aged children. Element levels in hair samples were quantified using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The association between trace element concentrations and residential distance from oil and gas fields was examined across three distance-based groups and further analyzed through multiple linear regression. The highest concentration of Al = 4.824 μg/g and Hg = 0.096 μg/g was found in the hair of children living close to oil and gas fields (0–16 km). A decrease in levels of Al (−0.072 (CI: −0.109; −0.036)) and Hg (−0.293 (CI: −0.343; −0.243)) is associated with increasing distance from oil and gas fields. As, Cd, and Pb had the lowest median concentrations in the hair of children living near oil and gas fields (0.030, 0.010, and 0.122 µg/g, respectively). There is a tendency for levels of As, Cd, and Pb to increase with distance from the fields (0.064 (CI: 0.039; 0.089), 0.093 (CI: 0.045; 0.141), and 0.244 (CI: 0.202; 0.287), respectively). Our findings indicate the need for biomonitoring of toxic elements to determine long-term temporal trends in the influence of toxic trace elements on the health of the child population of Western Kazakhstan. Full article
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19 pages, 739 KiB  
Article
Stray Dogs as Reservoirs and Sources of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases in the Environment of the City of Uralsk in Western Kazakhstan
by Askar Nametov, Rashid Karmaliyev, Bekzhassar Sidikhov, Kenzhebek Murzabayev, Kanat Orynkhanov, Bakytkanym Kadraliyeva, Balaussa Yertleuova, Dosmukan Gabdullin, Zulkyya Abilova and Laura Dushayeva
Biology 2025, 14(6), 683; https://doi.org/10.3390/biology14060683 - 11 Jun 2025
Viewed by 1229
Abstract
The increasing number of owned and stray dogs in large cities is becoming a pressing issue due to rising population densities, urban conditions, and poor control over animal reproduction. This situation poses serious epidemiological risks, as dogs can act as reservoirs and transmitters [...] Read more.
The increasing number of owned and stray dogs in large cities is becoming a pressing issue due to rising population densities, urban conditions, and poor control over animal reproduction. This situation poses serious epidemiological risks, as dogs can act as reservoirs and transmitters of infectious and parasitic diseases dangerous to humans. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and carriage of infectious and parasitic diseases in stray dogs in the city of Uralsk as a factor of epidemiological risk. In 2024, 1213 stray dogs were captured from different city districts and examined at the veterinary clinic and laboratory of Zhangir Khan University. Biological samples (blood, urine, feces) from 10% of the animals were analyzed using molecular (PCR), serological (ELISA), and helminthological methods. Serological and molecular analyses revealed the widespread circulation of bacterial pathogens. Antibodies to additional bacterial agents, including Pasteurella multocida, Mycobacterium spp., Listeria monocytogenes, and Leptospira spp., were detected in the samples, indicating an unfavorable sanitary and epidemiological situation in the urban environment. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) identified antibodies against Toxocara canis in 50.9% of the dogs and against Echinococcus granulosus in 76.4%, reflecting both active and past infections. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results showed the presence of Brucella canis DNA in blood and urine samples, while antibodies to Brucella spp. were detected in 57.8% of the examined dogs, underscoring the significant zooanthroponotic importance of this pathogen and its potential threat to human health. Additionally, T. canis DNA was found in 39.2% of the samples and E. granulosus DNA in 16.6%. A helminthological examination using the Fülleborn method revealed a high rate of helminth infection: Ancylostoma caninum—35.3%, T. canis—32.3%, and Toxascaris leonina—29.4%. The obtained results highlight the significant role of stray dogs as epizootiological and epidemiological reservoirs of zooanthroponotic infections. This poses a serious threat to public health and necessitates the implementation of effective control and prevention measures for infectious and parasitic diseases within urban fauna. Full article
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19 pages, 7482 KiB  
Article
Tuberculosis and Impact of COVID-19 on Spread of Epidemics in Kazakhstan
by Zhandarbek Bekshin, Albert Askarov, Yergali Abduraimov, Aralbek Rsaliyev, Gulmira Bissenova, Nurgul Amirkhanova, Zhadyrassyn Nurbekova and Aliya Temirbekova
Pathogens 2025, 14(6), 559; https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens14060559 - 4 Jun 2025
Viewed by 807
Abstract
This study examines the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis (TB) in the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan over the past seven years (2018–2024), which cover the before-, during- and after-COVID-19 periods, with a focus on the risks of its emergence and spread. The [...] Read more.
This study examines the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis (TB) in the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan over the past seven years (2018–2024), which cover the before-, during- and after-COVID-19 periods, with a focus on the risks of its emergence and spread. The analysis revealed that while TB incidence is declining, mortality remains high in the before- and during-COVID-19 periods, indicating a general decline in population health. The concentration of TB incidence in relation to geographic location was mainly in the northern, western and southern regions. Before COVID-19, TB incidence reached 48.2 cases and mortality reached a maximum of 2.4 cases per 100,000 people. In 2024, the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased to 33.5 (30.5%) and 1.0 (58.3%), respectively, reflecting an improvement in health indicators in the post-pandemic period. In the after-COVID-19 period, in regions with high unemployment, the incidence was higher than in the before- and during-COVID-19 periods. Nevertheless, it is important that the trend in tuberculosis incidence shows positive improvement after the COVID-19 period. In addition, a comparative analysis of tuberculosis incidence trends in different age groups and social factor groups shows that the adult population remains the most vulnerable category among the general population. The above-listed factors, as well as our analysis of tuberculosis incidence, shows that TB incidence does not always correlate with the level of vaccination in different regions of Kazakhstan, indicating a multifactorial influence on the tuberculosis epidemic. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases)
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29 pages, 11220 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Monitoring of Ecological Environmental Quality in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: Disparities Among Central Asian Countries and Analysis of Key Driving Factors
by Yue Liu, Jinjie Wang, Jianli Ding, Zipeng Zhang, Zhihong Liu, Zihan Zhang, Jinming Zhang and Liya Shi
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(11), 1825; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17111825 - 23 May 2025
Viewed by 556
Abstract
The ecological environment of arid and semi-arid regions (ASARs) faces significant challenges, highlighting the need for a robust indicator system to assess ecological environmental quality (EEQ) and sustainability. This study investigates Central Asia (CA) using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to develop a [...] Read more.
The ecological environment of arid and semi-arid regions (ASARs) faces significant challenges, highlighting the need for a robust indicator system to assess ecological environmental quality (EEQ) and sustainability. This study investigates Central Asia (CA) using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to develop a new remote sensing-based ecological index (ASAEI), assessing EEQ from 2000 to 2022 using the CatBoost–SHAP model. The results reveal a distinct spatial pattern in the ASAEI: the southwestern and southeastern regions face more severe ecological challenges, while the northern and central-southern areas exhibit better ecological conditions. The ASAEI exhibits a strong spatial autocorrelation, with high-value clusters in the northern and central-southern regions, where vegetation is dense, and low-value clusters in the southwestern and southeastern desert and Gobi regions. Over time, we observed that ecological degradation shifts from west to east. Overall, ecological restoration in CA exceeds the extent of degradation. Notably, Kazakhstan is primarily experiencing degradation, while other subregions predominantly show signs of restoration. Our analysis indicates that climate conditions and land use types are the primary factors influencing changes in the ASAEI. Furthermore, we project that 54.5% of the CA region will exhibit an improved EEQ, highlighting the need for restoration efforts in the western areas. The ASAEI offers a novel perspective and methodology for assessing EEQ in ASARs, with significant scientific implications. Full article
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11 pages, 2454 KiB  
Article
From the Woods to the Great Steppe: The Phylogenetic Affinities and New Distribution Records of the Smooth Snake Coronella austriaca in Kazakhstan
by Evgeniy Simonov, Andrey Bakiev, Anastasia Klenina, Oleg Ermakov and Kazhmurat Akhmedenov
Diversity 2025, 17(5), 348; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17050348 - 15 May 2025
Viewed by 686
Abstract
The smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) has a wide but fragmented distribution across the Western Palearctic, with limited records in Kazakhstan. This study aims to provide an updated distribution map and to explore the phylogenetic affinities of C. austriaca in Kazakhstan. The [...] Read more.
The smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) has a wide but fragmented distribution across the Western Palearctic, with limited records in Kazakhstan. This study aims to provide an updated distribution map and to explore the phylogenetic affinities of C. austriaca in Kazakhstan. The species had not been documented for over 60 years until its recent rediscovery in the region. Field surveys conducted between 2019 and 2024 in the West Kazakhstan and Aktobe regions have yielded novel records, including the southernmost observation in the Mugodzhar mountain range. Mitochondrial DNA analysis confirmed that the Kazakh populations belong to the Eastern lineage, sharing haplotypes with specimens from the northwestern Caucasus and Crimea. Habitat assessment revealed that the species’ distribution is restricted to open habitats of petrophytic and calciphyte steppe communities on chalks and rocky steppes. Of particular interest is that 70% of the observed individuals exhibited patternless coloration, suggesting the potential for regional morphological variation. These findings offer the first evidence for the phylogenetic affiliation of the smooth snake in Kazakhstan and reflect its rarity in the country, highlighting the need for local conservation efforts, including habitat protection and population monitoring. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Biodiversity Conservation)
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37 pages, 20031 KiB  
Article
MODFLOW Application for Exploitable Groundwater Resource Assessment of the Zhem Artesian Basin Aquifer Complex, Kazakhstan
by Daniyar Serikovich Sapargaliyev, Yermek Zhamshitovich Murtazin, Vladimir Mirlas, Vladimir Alexandrovich Smolyar and Yaakov Anker
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(10), 5443; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15105443 - 13 May 2025
Viewed by 530
Abstract
Groundwater resources are becoming increasingly scarce, especially in arid regions of western Kazakhstan. By 2070, the domestic and drinking water demands will increase from 640 to 901 thousand m3/day. This deficiency may be overcome by utilizing the Zhem Artesian Basin’s Cretaceous [...] Read more.
Groundwater resources are becoming increasingly scarce, especially in arid regions of western Kazakhstan. By 2070, the domestic and drinking water demands will increase from 640 to 901 thousand m3/day. This deficiency may be overcome by utilizing the Zhem Artesian Basin’s Cretaceous Albian–Cenomanian aquifer complex. The hydrodynamic interactions between the 123 known aquifer segments and recharge zones of these promising, exploitable, high-quality groundwater sources are unclear. While MODFLOW is a nominal platform for groundwater flow assessment, which is usually used for the simulation of simple hydrological scenarios, in this study, integrating several different scales and functional modules over a GIS platform enabled delineation and the forecast of this multi-layer aquifer complex. The MODFLOW simulation assessed exploitable groundwater resources and reservoir interactions, enabling the establishment of a simultaneous operation to the Zhem aquifer complex and its neighboring reservoirs. The model suggests that the total exploitable groundwater resources may grow to 629.4 thousand m3/day during the next 50 years. The simultaneous drawdown model suggests a water level decrease of up to 80 m at the end of this period, which will cause a river flow reduction of approximately 6% of the average long-term river flow. Thus, the assessed exploitable groundwater resources will cover more than 70% of the future regional water demand. The mathematical model developed may be used for monitoring and forecasting groundwater head and water balance changes and may be applied to attain a more detailed groundwater resource transfer scheme with economic criteria. Full article
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37 pages, 9663 KiB  
Article
Integrated Assessment of Groundwater Quality for Water-Saving Irrigation Technology (Western Kazakhstan)
by Yermek Murtazin, Vitaly Kulagin, Vladimir Mirlas, Yaakov Anker, Timur Rakhimov, Zhyldyzbek Onglassynov and Valentina Rakhimova
Water 2025, 17(8), 1232; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17081232 - 21 Apr 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 780
Abstract
Western Kazakhstan is susceptible to desertification, with surface water resource scarcity constraining agricultural development. Groundwater has substantial potential as a reliable and secure alternative to other water resources, particularly for irrigation, which is required to ensure food security. Eight aquifer segments with an [...] Read more.
Western Kazakhstan is susceptible to desertification, with surface water resource scarcity constraining agricultural development. Groundwater has substantial potential as a reliable and secure alternative to other water resources, particularly for irrigation, which is required to ensure food security. Eight aquifer segments with an exploitable potential of 0.24 km3/year have been identified for the integrated assessment of groundwater’s suitability for irrigation. The assessment criteria included hydro-chemical groundwater characteristics and irrigated land soil-reclamation conditions. The primary objectives of this study were to assess the groundwater quality for irrigation and to develop a practical operation scheme for rational groundwater use in water-saving irrigation technologies and optimize agricultural crop cultivation. Approximately 90% of the groundwater in these aquifer segments was found to be suitable for irrigation, with a total amount of 6520 thousand m3/day and a salinity of up to 1 g/L, and an additional 12,971 thousand m3/day had a water salinity of up to 3 g/L. Only approximately 10% had TDS values above 3 g/L and up to 6.5 g/L, categorized as conditionally suitable for restricted customized agricultural crop irrigation. Irrigated land development by complex soil desalination agro-reclamation operations enabled the use of brackish water for irrigation. The integrated analysis allowed the development of drip irrigation and sprinkling system irrigation schemes that gradually replaced wasteful surface irrigation. The irrigated land prospective area recommended for groundwater irrigation development is 653 km2, with the further restructuring of cultivated areas, reducing the number of annual grasses and grain crops and increasing the number of vegetables, potatoes, and perennial grasses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Study of the Soil Water Movement in Irrigated Agriculture III)
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13 pages, 12987 KiB  
Article
Environmental Suitability of Kazakhstan to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Using Data on Eurasian Outbreaks, 2020–2024
by Asem Zh. Abenova, Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Ablaikhan S. Kadyrov, Igor I. Sytnik, Alexander B. Shevtsov, Fedor I. Korennoy, Irene Iglesias Martin, Andres M. Perez and Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov
Viruses 2025, 17(4), 574; https://doi.org/10.3390/v17040574 - 16 Apr 2025
Viewed by 955
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease of domestic, synanthropic, and wild birds that has demonstrated a sharp rise globally since 2020. This study intends to examine environmental and demographic factors most significantly associated with HPAI (H5N1 and H5N8) outbreaks [...] Read more.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease of domestic, synanthropic, and wild birds that has demonstrated a sharp rise globally since 2020. This study intends to examine environmental and demographic factors most significantly associated with HPAI (H5N1 and H5N8) outbreaks in Kazakhstan, 2020–2024, and to identify areas of potential underreporting of the disease. Two ecological niche models were developed, namely an “occurrence model” (considering climatic and environmental factors influencing the likelihood of HPAI occurrence) and a “reporting model” (that assesses the probability of disease reporting based on human and poultry population demography). Both models were trained using outbreak locations in countries neighboring Kazakhstan (Afghanistan, China, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Russia), and then tested using the HPAI outbreak locations in Kazakhstan. Results suggested a good fit for both models to Kazakhstani outbreaks (test AUC = 0.894 vs. training AUC = 0.915 for “occurrence model”, and test AUC = 0.869 vs. training AUC = 0.872 for “reporting model”). A cluster of high occurrence-to-reporting ratio was detected in the south-western region of Kazakhstan, close to the Caspian Sea, suggesting a need for enhancing surveillance efforts in this zone as well as in some other areas of Pavlodar, Northern Kazakhstan, Western Kazakhstan, Qyzylorda, and Eastern Kazakhstan. Results presented here will help inform the design and implementation of control strategies for HPAI in Kazakhstan with the ultimate goal of promoting disease prevention and control in the country. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Animal Influenza Virus Research: Third Edition)
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17 pages, 7071 KiB  
Article
Sustainability Challenges in Kazakhstan’s River Systems: Assessing Climate-Induced Hydrological Changes
by Aisulu Tursunova, Aliya Nurbatsina, Zhanat Salavatova and Fredrik Huthoff
Sustainability 2025, 17(8), 3405; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17083405 - 11 Apr 2025
Viewed by 502
Abstract
Global and regional climate change and their water-related impacts are a key component in future development scenarios to guide sustainable water management. Climatic changes may lead to an undesirable redistribution of water supplies and potentially harmful extremities in river flows throughout the year. [...] Read more.
Global and regional climate change and their water-related impacts are a key component in future development scenarios to guide sustainable water management. Climatic changes may lead to an undesirable redistribution of water supplies and potentially harmful extremities in river flows throughout the year. If we add to this the uneven spatial distribution of water resources in Kazakhstan, the importance of assessment of the intra-annual distribution of river flows under historical and present climatic conditions becomes evident. The presented scientific study analyzes decadal regional trends from 1985 to 2022 in the intra-annual distribution of river runoff in selected catchments in Kazakhstan, including Buktyrma River, Zhabay River, and Ulken-Kobda River. The river basins were selected to cover diverse regions in terms of geographical features and hydrological conditions, significantly affected by climate change. We applied statistical analysis methods using multiyear values of mean monthly and mean annual river flows, mean monthly air temperatures, and mean monthly precipitation. To analyze the intra-annual distribution of annual river flow in the context of climate change, a computational method was used, in which the actual current river flow (modern river flow taking into account non-stationarity of climatic changes) was compared with the conditionally natural flow obtained by modeling and corresponding to the natural regime of the river. The long-term dynamics of flow-forming factors and runoff parameters with regard to phases of different water content (25%, 50%, and 75%) were considered. Statistical analysis of seasonal changes in water content of modeled and actual river flow, taking into account climatic non-stationarity, allowed us to identify significant trends of flow redistribution within the year: indicating a decrease in the volume of spring floods, an increase in winter flow and increase in seasonal variability, especially for the Ulken Kobda River. It appears that atmospheric circulation significantly affects annual and seasonal variations of water availability. The shift in western circulation type (W) contributes to increased average annual river flow, while the shift in eastern circulation type (E) is associated with amplification of extreme flood-type events. The results obtained are important for adapting sustainable water management practices under a changing climate, helping to anticipate the availability of water resources and allowing pro-active measures to mitigate hydrological extremes. Full article
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19 pages, 4267 KiB  
Article
Investigation on the Linkage Between Precipitation Trends and Atmospheric Circulation Factors in the Tianshan Mountains
by Chen Chen, Yanan Hu, Mengtian Fan, Lirui Jia, Wenyan Zhang and Tianyang Fan
Water 2025, 17(5), 726; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050726 - 1 Mar 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 944
Abstract
The Tianshan Mountains are located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, spanning east to west across China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the primary water source for Central Asia’s arid regions, the Tianshan mountain system is pivotal for regional water security and [...] Read more.
The Tianshan Mountains are located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, spanning east to west across China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the primary water source for Central Asia’s arid regions, the Tianshan mountain system is pivotal for regional water security and is highly sensitive to the nuances of climate change. Utilizing ERA5 precipitation datasets alongside 24 atmospheric circulation indices, this study delves into the variances in Tianshan’s precipitation patterns and their correlation with large-scale atmospheric circulation within the timeframe of 1981 to 2020. We observe a seasonally driven dichotomy, with the mountains exhibiting increasing moisture during the spring, summer, and autumn months, contrasted by drier conditions in winter. There is a pronounced spatial variability; the western and northern reaches exhibit more pronounced increases in precipitation compared to their eastern and southern counterparts. Influences on Tianshan’s precipitation patterns are multifaceted, with significant factors including the North Pacific Pattern (NP), Trans-Niño Index (TNI), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA*), Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific SST (Niño 1+2*), North Tropical Atlantic SST Index (NTA), Central Tropical Pacific SST (Niño 4*), Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation [TPI(IPO)], and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP*). Notably, NP and TNI emerge as the predominant factors driving the upsurge in precipitation. The study further reveals a lagged response of precipitation to atmospheric circulatory patterns, underpinning complex correlations and resonance cycles of varying magnitudes. Our findings offer valuable insights for forecasting precipitation trends in mountainous terrains amidst the ongoing shifts in global climate conditions. Full article
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32 pages, 16485 KiB  
Article
Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Desertification in Central Asia Using Bayesian Networks
by Jinping Liu, Yanqun Ren, Panxing He and Jianhua Xiao
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(4), 665; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17040665 - 15 Feb 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1291
Abstract
Desertification presents major environmental challenges in Central Asia, driven by climatic and anthropogenic factors. The present study quantifies desertification risk through an integrated approach using Bayesian networks and the ESAS model, offering a holistic perspective on desertification dynamics. Four key variables—vegetation cover, precipitation, [...] Read more.
Desertification presents major environmental challenges in Central Asia, driven by climatic and anthropogenic factors. The present study quantifies desertification risk through an integrated approach using Bayesian networks and the ESAS model, offering a holistic perspective on desertification dynamics. Four key variables—vegetation cover, precipitation, land-use intensity, and soil quality—were incorporated into a Bayesian model to evaluate their influence on desertification. A probabilistic model was developed to gauge desertification intensity, with simulations conducted at 200 geospatial points. Hazard maps for 2030–2050 were produced under climate scenarios SSP245 and SSP585, incorporating projected land-use changes. All procedures for desertification risk assessment, land-use mapping, and climate downscaling were performed using the Google Earth Engine platform. The findings suggest a 4% increase in desertification risk under SSP245 and an 11% increase under SSP585 by 2050, with the greatest threats observed in western regions such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Sensitivity analysis indicated that vegetation quality exerts the strongest influence on desertification, reflected by a Vegetation Quality Index (VQI) ranging from 1.582 (low in Turkmenistan) to 1.692 (very low in Kazakhstan). A comparison of the Bayesian and ESAS models revealed robust alignment, evidenced by an R2 value of 0.82, a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76, and an RMSE of 0.18. These results highlight the utility of Bayesian networks as an effective tool for desertification assessment and scenario analysis, underscoring the urgency of targeted land management and proactive climate adaptation. Although reclaimed land presents opportunities for afforestation and sustainable agriculture, carefully considering potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services remains essential. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing Application in the Carbon Flux Modelling)
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19 pages, 32702 KiB  
Article
Geo-Ecological Analysis of the Causes and Consequences of Flooding in the Western Region of Kazakhstan
by Shakhislam Laiskhanov, Zhanerke Sharapkhanova, Akhan Myrzakhmetov, Eugene Levin, Omirzhan Taukebayev, Zhanbolat Nurmagambetuly and Sarkytkan Kaster
Urban Sci. 2025, 9(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9010020 - 20 Jan 2025
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2016
Abstract
The intensifying effects of climate change have led to increased flooding, even in desert regions, resulting in significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. This study analyzes the causes and consequences of flooding in the Zhem River basin using data from ground stations, including Kazhydromet, [...] Read more.
The intensifying effects of climate change have led to increased flooding, even in desert regions, resulting in significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. This study analyzes the causes and consequences of flooding in the Zhem River basin using data from ground stations, including Kazhydromet, and satellite platforms such as USGS FEWS NET and Copernicus. Spatial analyses conducted in ArcGIS utilized classified raster data to map the dynamics of flooding, snow cover, vegetation, and soil conditions. This enabled a geoecological analysis of flood damage on the vital components of the local landscape. Results show that flooding in the Zhem River basin was driven by heavy winter precipitation, rapid snowmelt, and a sharp rise in spring temperatures. The flood damaged Kulsary city and also harmed the region’s soil, vegetation, and wildlife. In July 2024, the flooded sail area tripled compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the area of barren land or temporary water bodies (pools) formed three months after the water receded also tripled, increasing from 84.9 km2 to 275.7 km2. This study highlights the critical need for continued research on the long-term environmental effects of flooding and the development of adaptive management strategies for sustainable regional development. Full article
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