Search Results (15)

Climate models have predicted changes in woody plant growth, vitality, and species distribution. Those changes are expected mainly within the boundaries of species ranges. We studied the influence of changing hydrothermal and burning-rate regimes on relict pine stands at the southern edge of the Pinus sylvestris range in Siberia. We hypothesize that (1) warming has stimulated pine growth under conditions of sufficient moisture supply, and (2) increased burning rate has threatened forest viability. We found that the increase in air temperature, combined with the decrease in soil and air drought, stimulated tree growth. Since the “warming restart” around 2000, the growth index (GI) of pines has exceeded its historical value by 1.4 times. The GI strongly correlates with the GPP and NPP of pine stands (r = 0.82). Despite the increased fire rate, the GPP/NPP and EVI index of both pine stands and surrounding bush–steppes are increasing, i.e., the pine habitat is “greening” since the warming restart. These results support the prediction (by climatic scenarios SSP4.5, SSP7.0, and SSP8.5) of improvement in tree habitat in the Siberian South. Meanwhile, warming has led to a reduction in the fire-return interval (up to 3–5 y). Although the post-fire density of seedlings on burns (ca. 10,000 per ha) is potentially sufficient for pine forest recovery, repeated surface fires have eliminated the majority of the undergrowth and afforestation. In a changing climate, the preservation of relict pine forests depends on a combination of moisture supply, burning rate, and fire suppression. Full article

Tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sibirica Du Tour from near the upper treeline in the Western Sayan, Southern Siberia are found to have an exceptional (below mean–3SD) multi-year drop near 1700 CE, highlighted by the seven narrowest-ring years in a 1524–2022 regional chronology occurring in the short span of one decade. Tree rings are sometimes applied to reconstruct seasonal air temperatures; therefore, it is important to identify other factors that may have contributed to the growth suppression. The spatiotemporal scope of the “nosedive” in tree growth is investigated with a large network of P. sibirica (14 sites) and Larix sibirica Ledeb. (61 sites) chronologies, as well as with existing climatic reconstructions, natural archives, documentary evidence (e.g., earthquake records), and climate maps based on 20th-century reanalysis data. We conclude that stress from low summer temperatures in the Little Ice Age was likely exacerbated by tree damage associated with weather extremes, including infamous Mongolian “dzuds”, over 1695–1704. A tropical volcanic eruption in 1695 is proposed as the root cause of these disturbances through atmospheric circulation changes, possibly an amplified Scandinavia Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. Conifer tree rings and forest productivity recorded this event across all of Altai–Sayan region. Full article

In the southern taiga of Siberia, periodic outbreaks of the Siberian moth Dendrolimus sibrircus Tschetv. have been observed. The outbreaks result in the defoliation of Siberian fir Abies sibirica Ledeb. and Siberian pine Pinus sibirica Du Tour. stands across approximately one million hectares, leading to dieback of the affected forests. This is largely attributable to the inability to promptly identify the onset of the pest population growth in a timely manner, particularly in the context of expansive forest areas with limited accessibility. It is feasible to enhance the efficacy of monitoring Siberian moth populations by discerning stands with the highest propensity for damage and concentrating efforts on these areas. To achieve this, we employed machine learning techniques, specifically gradient boosting, support vector machines, and decision trees, training models on two sets of predictors. One of the datasets was obtained through a field study conducted in forest stands during the previous outbreak of the Siberian moth (2015–2018), while the other was derived from the analysis of remote sensing data during the same period. In both 2015 and 2016, the defoliation was most accurately predicted using gradient boosting (XGB algorithm), with ROC-AUC values reaching 0.89–0.94. The most significant predictors derived from the ground data were the proportions of Siberian fir, Siberian spruce Picea obovata Ledeb., and Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L., phytosociological data, tree age, and site quality. Among the predictors obtained from the analysis of remote sensing data, the distance to disturbed forest stands was identified as the most significant, while the proportion of dark coniferous species (A. sibirica, P. sibirica, or Picea obovata Ledeb.), the influx of solar radiation (estimated through the CHILI index), and the position in the relief (mTPI index) were also determined to be important. Full article

Trees’ growth and areal responses to changing climate are primarily expected within the edges of the species range. Here, we compared the responses of Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour), a moisture-sensitive species, and drought-resistant larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the southern part of their ranges in the Siberian Mountains (the Tannu-Ola Ridge). We study the species’ growth and proportion in the forests from forest-steppe to treeline ecotone along the elevation gradient. These studies are based on radial growth index (GI) analysis and GI dependence on the climate variables. We used satellite time series to detect the land cover changes (areas of larch and Siberian pine, as well as shrubs and birch). We compared trees’ GI before and after warming “restart” in the late 1990s. Generally, GI dependence on the air temperature was negative at elevations below c. 1600 m a.s.l., whereas GI dependence on the moisture variables (precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture) was positive for both species. Above 1600 m, increasing air temperatures stimulated species growth, whereas the influence of moisture variables was negative (for larch) or neutral (for Siberian pine). After the warming restart, the GI of both conifers increased in moisture-sufficient high elevations and treeline ecotone, whereas within low elevations (<1300 m), the GI was stagnant or suppressed. Both species’, especially Siberian pine, negative growth dependence on air temperature and positive dependence on the moisture variables strongly increased since the warming restart. We found a risen growth dependence of both species on the soil-stored water during the previous year (September–October), which smoothed moisture stress at the beginning of the growing season. Yet both species’ growth also suffered as a result of early spring warms. We found that larch is migrating in both uphill and downhill directions, while Siberian pine is migrating uphill only. Forests loss occurred at low elevations (<1300 m), whereas forest and shrub gain occurred at high (>2000 m) ones. The upper boundary of the forests and shrubs is migrating uphill at rates of about 0.8 and 0.3 m/y, respectively. We observed a decrease in Siberian pine proportion in the forests, whereas areas of larch and birch strongly increased (by 150% and 100%, respectively), which indicates the retreat of Siberian pine from its southern habitat. We suggested afforestation of the areas of Siberian pine mortality by the drought-tolerant larch species. Full article

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) is a widespread and long-lived species in the northern hemisphere, which makes it a good potential proxy for climatic data. However, the tree-ring growth of this species weakly correlates with climatic conditions, which prevents its use in dendroclimatic reconstruction. It was proposed to use the measurements of tracheid characteristics as model predictors to reconstruct the smoothed temperature of the key periods in tree growth. In this study, algorithms for preprocessing tracheids and temperature data, as well as for model cross-validation, were developed to produce reliable high-resolution (weekly-based) temperature reconstructions. Due to the developed algorithms, the key time periods of Siberian pine growth were identified during the growing season—early June (most active cell development) and mid-July (setting new buds for the next growing season). For these time periods, reliable long-term temperature reconstructions (R² > 0.6, p < 10⁻⁸) were obtained over 1653–2018. The temperature reconstructions significantly correlated (p < 10⁻⁸) with independent reanalysis data for the 19th century. The developed approach, based on preprocessing tracheid and temperature data, shows new potential for Siberian pine in high-resolution climate reconstructions and can be applied to other tree species that weakly respond to climate forcing. Full article

The growth and survival of trees in the Siberian Mountains are experiencing a strong influence on climate warming. We analyzed Siberian pine (SP, Pinus sibirica) growth within the treeline ecotone in high (>1000 m) and low (<900 m) lands. We used ground surveys, dendrochronology, and climate variable data analysis. We found a contrasting response of SP growth with increasing air temperature and moisture parameters along the elevation gradient. In the treeline ecotone and highlands, the tree’s growth has been increasing since warming onset in the 1970s, whereas in the lowlands, the initial growth increase switched to a growth drop since the beginning of the 2000s, with a consequent partial mortality of the Siberian pine forest caused by warming-driven water stress in combination with bark borers’ attacks. This mortality suggests the retraction of the Siberian pine range in the lowlands of the Siberian Mountains. The projected drought increase will likely lead to the substitution of Siberian pine with drought-tolerant species. The tree’s growth index (GI) dependence on air temperature and moisture variables includes two phases. In the first phase (since the warming onset in the 1970s), the trees’ GI was positively correlated with elevated temperature, whereas correlations with precipitation and soil moisture were negative. During the second phase (since the increase in warming in the 2000s), negative correlations between the GI and moisture variables switched to positive ones. The correlations of the GI with air temperature switched from positive to mostly insignificant. The wind’s influence on the trees’ growth changed from negative to insignificant since the 2000s within all elevation belts. Afforestation within the areas of Siberian pine mortality should not be based on the planting of Siberian pine but on drought-tolerant species such as larch (Larix sibirica) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). Full article

Climate warming and subsequent drought are predicted to alter local forest production and carbon budgets, the sensitivity of which may be site- and species-specific. Although a warmer and drier climate often constrains tree growth, whether trees grown in cool, wet regions across the Siberian forest can in turn be promoted remains unknown. Here, we aimed to investigate the historical growth tendency of Siberian forests in the Sayan Mountain areas and to explore how climate interacts to regulate their growth. We used ring-width data from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) sampled from three sites in this area to establish a regional chronology and calculate percentage growth change (%GC) over the past 250 years. Bootstrapped correlation analysis between the regional ring-width chronology and climatic factors indicates the mean air temperature, though not precipitation, is more often positively linked to the radial growth of Siberian pines. The %GC series shows that, from 1966 to 2006, the rising temperatures in May resulted in a significant increase in the radial-growth rate of Siberian pines (r = 0.47, p < 0.05). Our study suggests that the positive growth rate anomaly is more likely to occur as temperatures rise in Southern Siberia. Full article

Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) is one of the keystone conifers in Siberian taiga, but its radial growth is complacent and thus rarely investigated. We studied its growth in subalpine stands near the upper timberline along the Western Sayan Mountains, Southern Siberia, because climatic responses of trees growing on the boundaries of species distribution help us better understand their performance and prospects under climate change. We performed dendroclimatic analysis for six tree-ring width chronologies with significant between-site correlations at distances up to 270 km (r = 0.57–0.84, p < 0.05). We used ERA-20C (European Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century) daily climatic series to reveal weak but spatially coherent responses of tree growth to temperature and precipitation. Temperature stably stimulated growth during the period from the previous July–August to current August, except for an adverse effect in April. Precipitation suppressed growth during periods from the previous July–September to December (with reaction gradually strengthening) and from the current April to August (weakening), while the snowfall impact in January–March was neutral or positive. Weather extremes probably caused formation of wide tree rings in 1968 and 2002, but narrow rings in 1938, 1947, 1967, 1988, and 1997. A subtle increase in the climatic sensitivity of mature trees was observed for all significant seasonal climatic variables except for the temperature in the previous October–January. The current winter warming trend is supposedly advantageous for young pine trees based on their climatic response and observed elevational advance. Full article

Over the coming decades, climate change can decrease forest productivity and stability in many semiarid regions. Tree-ring width (TRW) analysis allows estimation of tree sensitivity to droughts, including resistance (Rt) and resilience (Rc) indexes. It helps to find adaptive potential of individual trees and forest populations. On a forest stand scale, it is affected by habitat conditions and species’ ecophysiological characteristics, and on individual scale by tree genotype, age, and size. This study investigated TRW response to droughts in forest-steppe and sub-taiga of southern Siberia for keystone species Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.). Chronologies reacted positively to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of the previous July–September and current April–July. Depressed tree growth across region and droughts lasting over both intra-seasonal intervals were registered in 1965, 1974, and 1999. TRW-based Rt and Rc for these droughts did not reveal age- or size-related patterns. Higher growth stability indexes were observed for birch in sub-taiga and for conifers in forest-steppe. Larch at all sites had disadvantage against pine for 1965 and 1999 droughts aggravated by pest outbreaks, but adapted better to drought in 1974. Site aridity affected both tree growth stability and intensity of climatic response. Full article

Tree development is affected by different factors including topographic features. The effect could be even more complex in harsh environments such as in the northwest of Sweden. In this study, we analyzed the effect of aspect-slope on the development up to the age of 34 years of five species: black spruce, lodgepole pine, Norway spruce, Siberian larch and Scots pine. The species were planted in a field experiment on the southwest slope, mountaintop, and northeast slope in a randomized complete block design in the northwest of Sweden (latitude 67°) with 2 m × 2 m spacing. No re-measurement data were available and, as such, retrospective diameters and heights were derived from sample discs and measurement of length to every branch whorl, respectively. Variations in tree survival rate, height and diameter were analyzed using a linear mixed-effect model. The results showed that there were significant (p < 0.05) differences between species in survival rate, diameter and height growth; in some cases, differences were found between contrasting aspect-slope. Black spruce and Siberian larch had the best survival rate under this harsh boreal climate. However, Siberian larch had the best growth and developed well on the mountaintop and northeast slope. Lodgepole pine developed well on the southwest slope. Scots pine also grew well on the southwest slope and mountaintop. Norway spruce had the slowest growth. Based on this study, Siberian larch and lodgepole pine can serve as alternatives to the two traditional conifer species, Norway spruce and Scots pine, used in Sweden. Siberian larch is particularly suitable because it is able to withstand the harshness of the boreal environment. Full article

The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier. Full article

The ribbon-like pine forests of North Kazakhstan represent the principal territorial intrazonal and azonal biotopes. Integrated bio-geographic studies of the pine forests’ status were performed in the Beskaragai and Chaldai Nature Reserves in the Pri-Irtysh River basin within, at present, the climate–change most susceptible transitional parkland-steppe zone of Central Asia, adjoining the West Siberian Lowland. The investigations followed the regional topographic gradient with a series of mapped sites characterizing the spatial relief patterns of the pristine forest distribution and the associated phytocenoses. The results revealed marked natural arboreal cover restoration differences between the geographically close upland and lowland forest ecosystems. The regional tree growth dynamics show the varying intensity of the pine seedlings’ succession, the tree stands’ biomass productivity and the environmental stability, weakened by the extreme continentality and progressing aridification along with adverse anthropogenic ecological impacts. The specific geomorphic, soil and hydrological conditions are the principal determining factors. The more vital plain and lowland pine forests host the floristically richer fescue-dominated communities compared to the more fragile and precipitation-poorer upland pine settings. The latter forest ecosystems display a higher vulnerability to the current climate change, generating tree drying, forest fires, and to modern human activities such as logging, herding and recreation. The research conclusions provide new insights on the natural ribbon-like pine forests’ sustainability and adaptation to the ongoing continental warming triggering fundamental environmental transformations in Central Asia’s parklands. Full article

The peatlands of the West Siberian Lowlands, comprising the largest pristine peatland area of the world, have not previously been covered by continuous measurement and monitoring programs. The response of peatlands to climate change occurs over several decades. This paper summarizes the results of peatland carbon balance studies collected over ten years at the Mukhrino field station (Mukhrino FS, MFS) operating in the Middle Taiga Zone of Western Siberia. A multiscale approach was applied for the investigations of peatland carbon cycling. Carbon dioxide fluxes at the local scale studied using the chamber method showed net accumulation with rates from 110, to 57.8 gC m⁻² at the Sphagnum hollow site. Net CO₂ fluxes at the pine-dwarf shrubs-Sphagnum ridge varied from negative (−32.1 gC m⁻² in 2019) to positive (13.4 gC m⁻² in 2017). The cumulative May-August net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from eddy-covariance (EC) measurements at the ecosystem scale was −202 gC m⁻² in 2015, due to the impact of photosynthesis of pine trees which was not registered by the chamber method. The net annual accumulation of carbon in the live part of mosses was estimated at 24–190 gC m⁻² depending on the Sphagnum moss species. Long-term carbon accumulation rates obtained by radiocarbon analysis ranged from 28.5 to 57.2 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹, with local extremes of up to 176.2 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹. The obtained estimates of various carbon fluxes using EC and chamber methods, the accounting for Sphagnum growth and decomposition, and long-term peat accumulation provided information about the functioning of the peatland ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. Multiscale carbon flux monitoring reveals useful new information for forecasting the response of northern peatland carbon cycles to climatic changes. Full article

The pine looper Bupalus piniaria is one of the most widespread phyllophagous insect species across Northern Eurasia, defoliating Scots pine forests over vast territories. Since there are not enough long-term documented observations on a series of outbreaks, there is a need for methods allowing them to be reconstructed to study their dynamics patterns. Previously, dendrochronological methods were successfully used to solve such issues. However, the most common approach is not applicable for the Western Siberian forest-steppe since it requires comparison with a non-damaged tree species close to pine in terms of longevity and resistance to rot. In the pine forests of the steppe and forest-steppe zones of Western Siberia, there are no species that are not damaged by the pine looper that meets these requirements. Methods allowing not using control species are also not free from disadvantages (e.g., weak specificity). Therefore, we have developed a new method based on the analysis, not of the tree-ring width but the early- and latewood width to reconstruct past defoliation events. The past defoliation by the pine looper is indicated by the presence of a negative pointer year for latewood, followed by a negative pointer year for earlywood in a subsequent year among the majority of individuals. Linear modeling showed a difference between the climate impact on radial growth and the defoliation one. The obtained reconstruction was compared with the results of other methods (mowing window, OUTBREAK, independent component analysis), literature, and Forest Service data. The developed new method (pointer year method; PYM) showed high efficiency confirmed by results of the tree-ring series analysis (11 revealed outbreaks in the past). Compared with other reconstruction techniques under the given conditions (a favorable combination of heat and humidity; probably low-intense and short defoliation), the proposed method provided more precise results than those proposed earlier. Due to high accuracy, the PYM can be useful for detecting late-summer and autumn past defoliations of tree species with clear difference between early- and latewood even though the damage was weak. Full article

The response of vegetation to climate change is of special interest in regions where rapid warming is coupled with moisture deficit. This raises the question of the limits in plants’ acclimation ability and the consequent shifts of the vegetation cover. Radial growth dynamics and climatic response were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in the forest-steppe, and for Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila L.) in the steppe of South Siberia, as indicators of vegetation state and dynamics. Climate–growth relationships were analyzed by the following two approaches: (1) correlations between tree-ring width chronologies and short-term moving climatic series, and (2) optimization of the parameters of the Vaganov–Shashkin tree growth simulation model to assess the ecophysiological characteristics of species. Regional warming was accompanied by a slower increase of the average moisture deficit, but not in the severity of droughts. In the forest-steppe, the trees demonstrated stable growth and responded to the May–July climate. In the steppe, elm was limited by moisture deficit in May–beginning of June, during the peak water deficit. The forest-steppe stands were apparently acclimated successfully to the current climatic trends. It seems that elm was able to counter the water deficit, likely through its capacity to regulate transpiration by the stomatal morphology and xylem structure, using most of the stem as a water reservoir; earlier onset; and high growth rate, and these physiological traits may provide advantages to this species, leading to its expansion in steppes. Full article