Search Results (14)

Revealing the complex system of transboundary conflicts would help to understand the behavior of states and anticipate potential actions that would collectively reflect the state doctrine. However, a specific approach to the state political doctrine (SPD) for governing transboundary water has not been formalized. The core academic contribution of this research is to formalize the structure of the SPD for transboundary water, which might assist in fostering water cooperation and peacebuilding in one of the most conflict-prone regions—the Middle East and South Africa—by examining the upstream countries’ behavior. Case studies include Turkey in the Euphrates–Tigris Basins, Israel in the Jordan River Basin, and Ethiopia in the Nile River Basin. The theoretical framework presents a new paradigm that systematically links a state’s essential drivers, political philosophy, and potential actions, employing the Hegelian dialectic of thesis–antithesis–synthesis and the three Doctrines of Being, Essence, and Concept to articulate the state’s behavior and its indispensable core principles for survival. It is integrated with Arnold Toynbee’s challenge-and-response theory to analyze upstream motives. This study reviewed 328 documents and pieces of literature alongside 105 expert discussions. The key findings include the three upstream countries embracing different SPDs to address specific challenges at the state level, where Turkey employs the Water-Bank Doctrine, Israel utilizes the Identity-Seeking Doctrine, and Ethiopia adopts the Nation Rise Power Doctrine. Besides the critical external challenges that limit water availability, such as the impact of climate change, the time factor is a crucial key to shifting the bargaining power and impacting the adopted SPD, thereby affecting water diplomacy and regional water cooperation. Full article

Climatic statistical downscaling in arid and topographically complex river basins remains relatively lacking. To address this gap, climatic variables derived from a global climate model (GCM) ensemble were downscaled from a grid resolution of 2.5° × 2.5° down to the station level. For this purpose, a combination of multiple linear and logistic regressions was developed, calibrated and validated with regard to their predictions of monthly precipitation and daily temperature in the Jordan River Basin. Seasonal standardized predictors were selected using a backward stepwise regression. The validated models were used to examine future scenarios based on GCM simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the period 2006–2050. The results showed a cumulative near-surface air temperature increase of 1.54 °C and 2.11 °C and a cumulative precipitation decrease of 100 mm and 135 mm under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2050. This pattern will inevitably add stress to water resources, increasing management challenges in the semi-arid to arid regions of the basin. Moreover, the current application highlights the potential of adopting regression-based models to downscale GCM predictions and inform future water resources management in poorly monitored arid regions at the river basin scale. Full article

The Jordan River Basin is experiencing significant water security stress, primarily due to increases in population and agricultural demands. The complex geopolitical dynamics of the region pose challenges in collecting field data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. Consequently, remote sensing data have emerged as indispensable tools for assessing water availability in the basin. The objective of this research study is to utilize data compiled from the water years of 2003 to 2021 to evaluate water availability in the basin. The water flux data, derived from satellite-observed precipitation (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data, CHIRPS) and evapotranspiration (Simplified Surface Energy Balance, SSEBop), offer a comprehensive summary of hydrologic information for each land use class and country. The annual land use maps were acquired from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI). Results indicate an overall rise in evapotranspiration (3.2%) in the basin between the periods of 2003–2011 and 2012–2020. Increased water consumption, particularly in croplands and urban areas (42%), poses a significant future challenge. These findings can guide the development of effective water resource management policies to enhance water security in a region that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Full article

This paper presents the calculation and management of water supply and demand under land use/cover changes in the Yarmouk River Basin in Jordan for the years 1997, 2007 and 2017. It aims to analyze and link the changes in the land classes with the water resources supply demand as the groundwater is unable to meet the inhabitants demand, necessitating land management practices. The method includes deriving land use/cover maps using the supervised classification, identifying basin governorates, cities and villages, calculating the basin governorates’ inhabitants, water demand, supply of internal wells, water loss, and actual water consumption. The results showed an increase in the urban area by 3.01%, while forests, rain-fed vegetables and crops declined by 1.57% and 1.09%, respectively. Urbanization appears mainly at the expense of rangelands, an important change affecting water supply from internal wells due to increased pumping to balance population demand. Although it is decreasing per capita, the water demand is high. Changing land use practices, securing inter-basin water resources, and calculating water losses is a challenge of great importance that can manage water shortages and increase actual consumption. This research is important in order to understand the supply demand situation and to aid a wide range of users, water-managers, land-planners and decision-makers. Full article

In this study, we implemented a remote sensing-based approach for monitoring abandoned agricultural land in the Yarmouk River Basin (YRB) in Southern Syria and Northern Jordan during the Syrian crisis. A time series analysis for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) was conducted using 1650 multi-temporal images from Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 between 1986 and 2021. We analyzed the agricultural phenological profiles and investigated the impact of the Syrian crisis on agricultural activities in YRB. The analysis was performed using JavaScript commands in Google Earth Engine. The results confirmed the impact of the Syrian crisis on agricultural land use. The phenological characteristics of NDVI and NDMI during the crisis (2013–2021) were compared to the phenological profiles for the period before the crisis (1986–2010). The NDVI and NDMI profiles had smooth, bell-shaped, and single beak NDVI and NDMI values during the period of crisis in comparison to those irregular phenological profiles for the period before the crisis or during the de-escalation/reconciliation period in the study area. The maximum average NDVI and NDMI values was found in March during the crisis, indicating the progress of natural vegetation and fallow land, while they fluctuated between March and April before the crisis or during the de-escalation/reconciliation period, indicating regular agricultural and cultivation practices. Full article

The Jordan River system is one of the most iconic and most contested river systems in the world. The once “mighty Jordan”, which has served as the primary source of water for populations in several countries, is currently a severely denuded river system, with only a fraction of its historic flow. Several initiatives, however, aim to restore some of the basin’s flows. This paper will provide a historical overview and analysis of the trajectory of the Jordan River system from being a primary supplier of water to a desiccated shadow of its former glory. It highlights the critical role international borders played in dividing control over the basin, resulting in different types and levels of water scarcity experienced by each of the basin’s riparians, each of whom has implemented different strategies to cope with such scarcity. The paper then presents several plans for large-scale interbasin transfers involving desalinated water initiated by basin riparians in attempts to deal with water scarcity and highlights how these planned initiatives are set to transform the basin from a regional supplier of water to a net importer. Full article

Recent studies highlight the fragility of the Mediterranean basin against climate stresses and the difficulties of managing the sustainable development of groundwater resources. In this work, the main issues related to groundwater management have been identified from the stakeholder’s perspective in the following four representative water-stressed Mediterranean areas: the coastal aquifer of Comacchio (Italy), the Alto Guadalentín aquifer (Spain), the alluvial aquifer of the Gediz River basin (Turkey), and the Azraq aquifer (Azraq Wetland Reserve, Jordan). This has been achieved by designing a methodology to involve and engage a representative set of stakeholders, including a questionnaire to learn their point of view concerning the current management of aquifer systems and their experience with the already available tools for groundwater resource management, such as monitoring networks and numerical models. The outcome of the survey has allowed us to identify both particular and common challenges among the four study sites and among the various groups of stakeholders. This information provides valuable insights to improve the transfer of scientific knowledge from the research centers to the authorities managing the groundwater resources and it will help to plan more effective research activities on aquifer management. The proposed methodology could be applied in other aquifers facing similar problems. Full article

Assamra wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is the largest treatment facility in Jordan. Treated wastewater is discharged into the Zarqa River (ZR) and used to irrigate fodder and vegetables. ZR also includes surface runoff, stormwater, and raw wastewater illegally discharged into the river. This study examined pharmaceutically active compounds (PhAC) in water resources in the ZR basin. Samples of WWTP influent and effluent and river water from four sites along ZR were collected. Concentrations of 18 target antibiotics, one stimulant, and 15 other PhACs were determined in the samples. Five antibiotics were detected in WWTP influent (510–860 ng L⁻¹ for ∑Antibiotics) and six in the effluent (2300–2600 ng L⁻¹ for ∑Antibiotics). Concentrations in the effluent of all antibiotics except clarithromycin increased by 2- to 5-fold compared with those in influent, while clarithromycin concentration decreased by around 4- fold (from 308 to 82 ng L⁻¹). WWTP influent and effluent samples contained 14 non-antibiotic PhACs, one simulant, and six antibiotics at detectable concentrations. The dominant PhACs were paracetamol (74% of ∑PhACs) in the influent and carbamazepine (78% of ∑PhACs) in the effluent. At ZR sampling sites, carbamazepine was the dominant PhAC in all cases (800–2700 ng L⁻¹). The antibiotics detected in WWTP effluent were also detected at the ZR sites. In summary, water in ZR is contaminated with PhACs, including antibiotics, and wastewater discharge seems to be the main pathway for this contamination. The occurrence of antibiotics and other PhACs in the irrigated soil requires investigation to assess their fate. Full article

The present study proposes a nonstandard solution to the problem of assessing water withdrawals (AWW) in the scarce-data transboundary basin. The applied AWW method operates with the open-source available data on precipitation and river flow and thereby overcomes the usual restriction due to lack of data on shared water use in the Middle East. Analysis of dynamic precipitation-flow relationships enable to separate the effect of water withdrawals from the total decline of river flow under the decreasing precipitation. This study is the first which provides complete information (1972–2020) on water withdrawals from total, surface, and base flow of the Hasbani River (Lebanon). The resulting values that exceed by far earlier published estimates were confirmed by (i) indirect indices (area of irrigated land and population), and (ii) validation of the AWW method based on independent data on water use (Israel Water Authority). The study results are useful for water balance estimations, as well as for management of water resources in the Jordan River headwaters basin and in the entire Lake Kinneret Basin. The AWW method can be applied to other transboundary basins and enables historical and real-time monitoring of water withdrawals as a necessary database for settlement of riparian water relations. Full article

The performance of dynamically downscaled climate fields with respect to observed historical stream runoff has been assessed at basin scale using a physically distributed hydrologic model (DHSVM). The dynamically downscaled climate fields were generated by running the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 4-km horizontal resolution with boundary conditions derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Six hydrologic models were developed using DHSVM for six mountainous tributary watersheds of the Jordan River basin at hourly time steps and 30-m spatial resolution. The size of the watersheds varies from 19 km² to 130 km². The models were calibrated for a 6-year period from water year (WY) 1999–2004, using the observed meteorological data from the nearby Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites of the Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS). Calibration results showed a very good fit between simulated and observed streamflow with an average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.77, and good to very good fits in terms of other statistical parameters like percent bias (PBIAS) and coefficient of determination (R²). A 9-year period (WY 2001–2009) was selected as the historical baseline, and stream discharges for this period were simulated using dynamically downscaled climate fields as input to the calibrated hydrologic models. Historical baseline results showed a satisfactory fit of simulated and observed streamflow with an average NSE greater than 0.45 and a coefficient of determination above 0.50. Using volumetric analysis, it has been found that the total volume of water simulated using downscaled climate projections for the entire historical baseline period for all six watersheds is 4% less than the observed amount representing a very good estimation in terms of percent error volume (PEV). However, in the case of individual watersheds, analysis of total annual water volumes showed that estimated total annual water volumes were higher than the observed for Big Cottonwood, City Creek, Millcreek and lower than the observed total annual volume of water for Little Cottonwood, Red Butte Creek, and Parleys Littledell, demonstrating similar characteristics obtained from the calibration results. Seasonal analysis showed that the models can capture the flow volume observed for Big Cottonwood, City Creek and Red Butte Creek during the peak season, and the models can capture the flow volume observed for all the watershed satisfactorily except Big Cottonwood during the dry season. Study results indicated that the dynamically downscaled climate projections used in this study performed satisfactorily in terms of stream runoff, total flow volume, and seasonal flow analyses based on different statistical tests, and can satisfactorily capture flow patterns and flow volume for most of the watersheds considering the uncertainties associated with the study. Full article

Treated wastewater is an important component of the water resource in Jordan. As Samra wastewater treatment plant—the largest treatment plant in Jordan—discharges ~110 MCM per year of secondary treated municipal wastewater to Zarqa River, and eventually to Jordan Valley. This research aims at assessing the impact of treated wastewater reuse on the hydrology and environment in the most vulnerable areas within Amman-Zarqa Basin, specifically from As Samra treatment plant to Jerash Bridge. Historical data is collected, field survey is performed, and chemical and biological analyses are performed at eleven selected locations along the study area. Afterwards, all collected data is managed using suitable tools to address the impact. The findings of this research demonstrate high improvement in biological and microbial parameters along the flow path, yet the salinity is increased downstream. It is found that this increase is due to brackish water intrusion, apparently from sandstone aquifer. Analysis of BOD and COD carried out as part of this research showed effective system recovery with COD reduction from 130 mg/L at the effluent to less than 50 mg/l in the downstream. Moreover, microbial activities are reduced, mainly due to self-purification in the river. Full article

This paper examines the differences in agricultural water application per crop ton output in semi-arid jurisdictions in the Jordan Basin, focusing on Israel and Jordan, with some analysis relevant to Palestine. In order to understand differences in water application, it delivers a nationally averaged assessment of applied water application for 14 key regional crops, with most cases suggesting Israeli best practice in water application per unit crop. The paper draws on a secondary assessment of agricultural water intensity and primary data from farmer interviews to demonstrate differences in applied water productivity and agricultural context. The analysis suggests a conservative estimate that a difference of 168 Million Cubic Meters (MCM)/yr (33% of agriculture and 18% of national total) exists in terms of water application for a given crop production in Jordan when compared with Israel. The paper then proposes further work required to establish how differences in water application might translate into differences in agricultural water productivity, and thereby potential water savings that might enable growth of production within current agricultural allocations, allowing new future resources to be allocated to other economic and social needs. The paper also delivers a preliminary analysis of the political and institutional landscape for implementation, assessing the challenges of institutional silos and overlap that some policy stakeholders see as hindering cross-sectoral progress. The paper concludes by examining the limitations of the analysis, and it proposes future work to deepen the robustness of results and examines some of the challenges facing improved agricultural water productivity and changing farm behaviour in the region. Full article

Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) has been introduced into Jordan through the MEDSCAPES project. The purpose of this project was to streamline landscape studies and integrate them into the land use planning practices in Jordan. Two areas within the Mediterranean and arid climatic zones of the country were chosen as test areas for the methodology. These were the Yarmouk River drainage basin in the northwest of the country and the Mujib River area in the west of Jordan within the Dead Sea basin. Landscape Character Mapping resulted in 22 and 64 Land Description Units (LDUs) for the Yarmouk and Mujib areas, respectively, which were then classified into 14 landscape types. The factors which control the spatial distributions of these units are geology, land cover, landform, and settlements. However, the study suggests that the underlying geology, which influences topography, impacts indirectly on soil types, climate zones, and human activities, and hence has a predominant influence on the character of these units. Specifically, the transition between the Dead Sea Rift Valley and the adjacent highlands create variations in the topographical relief, climate, water availability, and human settlements. Implementation of LCA in Jordan has done much to highlight geological hazards, such as sinkholes, as constraints to development in certain areas. Here, we described how the LCA process could be implemented in Jordan and how this can help in improving land use management practices in the country. Full article

The Jordan River basin is subject to extreme and increasing water scarcity. Management of transboundary water resources in the basin is closely intertwined with political conflicts in the region. We have jointly developed with stakeholders and experts from the riparian countries, a new dynamic consensus database and—supported by hydro-climatological model simulations and participatory scenario exercises in the GLOWA (Global Change and the Hydrological Cycle) Jordan River project—a basin-wide Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, which will allow testing of various unilateral and multilateral adaptation options under climate and socio-economic change. We present its validation and initial (climate and socio-economic) scenario analyses with this budget and allocation tool, and invite further adaptation and application of the tool for specific Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) problems. Full article