Search Results (21)

This paper presents a new catalogue of the 2022/2023 Adriatic Offshore Seismic Sequence obtained by machine learning-based processing. The procedure performs the automatic picking and association of phases starting from the analysis of the continuous waveforms recorded by 40 seismic stations of the Italian National Seismic Network and 5 stations of the SISMIKO emergency group network. The earthquakes were detected over a 3-month period, between 1 November 2022 and 31 January 2023. This new catalogue consists of 2780 earthquakes with a magnitude equal to or greater than ML 0.4, providing more information about lower-magnitude earthquakes in particular. The results make available, on the one hand, new insights into the offshore sequence, which can contribute to confirming the attribution of the earthquakes to the Adriatic Fault System, and in particular, the mainshocks to the Cornelia fault thrust, as also hypothesised by other works in the literature. Moreover, the work provides a further contribution in showing the great potential of using machine learning-based procedures to build catalogues with a greater degree of completeness, even in very particular cases such as the one represented by the Adriatic offshore sequence, for which the minimum distance from the epicentres is high and the azimuth coverage limited. Full article

This paper illustrates the outcomes of a third-level Seismic Microzonation project carried out in pilot areas of the Municipality of L’Aquila, Italy, an area characterized by recent strong seismic activity (6 April 2009 Mw 6.3 earthquake and central Italy 2016 seismic sequence—Mw 6.0 and 6.5 events). The primary aim was to develop numerical maps for urban and land planning to mitigate seismic risk, in line with the guidelines of the Italian Civil Protection Department. The local amplification assessment was organized through various sequential and/or parallel activities, including geotechnical and geophysical investigations and characterization, seismic input and numerical code selection, acquisition of 2D microtremor arrays, and comparison between 1D and 2D numerical modeling of seismic site response. This case study introduces several innovations to the microzonation procedures outlined in current Italian and European regulations, such as the use of microtremor arrays to assess a reliable subsoil model and a new procedure for associating amplification factors to each microzone. The results obtained are significant both for the detailed seismic characterization of the territory and for providing methodological indications useful for similar future studies. The use of 2D models is integrated into the flowchart for producing third-level microzonation maps, offering valuable tools within the framework of urban and land management from a perspective of territorial sustainability. Full article

This paper introduces SEISMONOISY, an application designed for monitoring the spatiotemporal characteristic and variability of the seismic noise of an entire seismic network with a quasi-real-time monitoring approach. Actually, we have applied the developed system to monitor 12 seismic networks distributed throughout the Italian territory. These networks include the Rete Sismica Nazionale (RSN) as well as other regional networks with smaller coverage areas. Our noise monitoring system uses the methods of Spectral Power Density (PSD) and Probability Density Function (PDF) applied to 12 h long seismic traces in a 24 h cycle for each station, enabling the extrapolation of noise characteristics at seismic stations after a Seismic Noise Level Index (SNLI), which takes into account the global seismic noise model, is derived. The SNLI value can be used for different applications, including network performance evaluation, the identification of operational problems, site selection for new installations, and for scientific research applications (e.g., volcano monitoring, identification of active seismic sequences, etc.). Additionally, it aids in studying the main noise sources across different frequency bands and changes in the characteristics of background seismic noise over time. Full article

A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, the short-term seismic hazard could also change during seismic swarms, i.e., a sequence with several small-/medium-sized events. The goal of this work is to quantify these changes, using the Italian Operational Earthquake Forecasting system, and also estimate the variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value. We focus our attention on three seismic swarms that occurred in Central Italy in October–November 2023. Our results indicate that short-term variations in seismic hazard are limited, less than an order of magnitude, and also that b-value variations are not significant. Placing our findings in a more general context, we can state that according to currently available models and catalogs, the occurrence of seismic swarms does not significantly affect the short-term seismic hazard. Full article

In tectonically active areas, such as the Italian peninsula, studying the faults responsible for strong earthquakes is often challenging, especially when the earthquakes occurred in historical times. In such cases, geoscientists need to integrate all the available information from historical reports, surface geology, and geophysics to constrain the faults responsible for the earthquakes from a seismotectonic point of view. In this paper, we update and review, according to the EMS-98 scale, the macroseismic fields of the five main events of the 1783 Calabria sequence (5, 6, and 7 February, 1 and 28 March, M_w 5.9 to 7.1), two other destructive events within the same epicentral area of the 1783 sequence (1791, M_w 6.1 and 1894, M_w 6.1), plus the Messina Strait 1908 earthquake (M_w 7.1). For the 1783 seismic sequence, we also elaborate an updated and new catalog of coseismic effects. The new macroseismic fields were analyzed using a series of MATLAB algorithms to identify (1) the unitarity of the field or its partitioning in sub-sources and (2) the field and sub-fields’ main elongation. A collection of earthquake scale laws from literature was used to compute the average source parameters (length, width, and area) with their range of variability, and an elliptical map-view representation of the source geometry was calculated and made available. The analyses of such data allow us to speculate on the earthquakes/faults association, as well as propose new interpretations and reconstruct the space–time evolution of the significant southern Calabria seismic sequences in the last five centuries. Full article

Over the last decade, thanks to the availability of historical satellite observations that have begun to be significantly large and thanks to the exponential growth of artificial intelligence techniques, many advances have been made in the detection of geophysical parameters such as seismic-related anomalies. In this study, the variations of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC), one of the main parameters historically proposed as a seismic-connected indicator, are analyzed. To make a statistically robust analysis of the complex phenomena involved, we propose a completely innovative machine-learning approach developed in the R programming language. Through this approach, an optimal setting of the multitude of methodological inputs currently proposed for the detection of ionospheric anomalies is performed. The setting is optimized by analyzing, for the first time, multi-year—mostly twenty-year—time series of TEC satellite data measured by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) over the Italian region, matched with the corresponding multi-year time series of seismic events. Seismic events including all the countries of the Mediterranean area, up to Turkey, are involved in the analysis. Tens of thousands of possible combinations of input methodological parameters are simulated and classified according to pre-established criteria. Several inputs examined return clear results. These results combined with each other highlight the presence of anomalous seismic-related sequences that have an extremely low probability of having been detected randomly (up to 2 out of 1 million). The anomalies identified represent the most anomalous behaviors of the TEC recorded during the entire period under investigation (e.g., 20 years). Some of the main conclusions are that, at mid-latitudes, ① the detection of seismic-TEC anomalies can be more efficient looking for punctual rather than persistent phenomena; ② the optimal thresholds for the identification of co-seismic anomalies can assume different values depending on type of anomaly (positive or negative) and type of observation; ③ single GNSS receiver data can be useful for capturing local earthquake-ionospheric effects and Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) data can be functional in detecting large-scale earthquake-ionospheric effects; ④ earthquakes deeper than 50 km are less likely to affect the ionosphere. Full article

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is a widely used tool for cluster analysis and forecasting, owing to its ability to accurately predict aftershock occurrences. However, its capacity to explain the increase in seismic activity prior to large earthquakes—known as foreshocks—has been called into question due to inconsistencies between simulated and experimental catalogs. To address this issue, we introduce a generalization of the ETAS model, called the Epidemic Type Aftershock Foreshock Sequence (ETAFS) model. This model has been shown to accurately describe seismicity in Southern California. In this study, we demonstrate that the ETAFS model is also effective in the Italian catalog, providing good agreement with the instrumental Italian catalogue (ISIDE) in terms of not only the number of aftershocks, but also the number of foreshocks—where the ETAS model fails. These findings suggest that foreshocks cannot be solely explained by cascades of triggered events, but can be reasonably considered as precursory phenomena reflecting the nucleation process of the main event. Full article

Natural hazards are increasingly threatening our communities; hence it is imperative to provide communities with reliable information on possible impacts of such disasters, and on resilience measures that can be adopted to recover from disasters. To increase the engagement of various stakeholders in decision-making processes related to resilience to natural hazards, problem-specific information needs to be presented to them in a language understandable to non-experts in the field. To this end, this paper illustrates experimentation with low-code platforms for fast digitalization of resilience reports, incorporating the perspectives of various stakeholders in the analysis, thus making informed decision-making practicable. We present a co-creation-based approach to develop GIS-based user-friendly dashboards in support to the identification of resilience strategies against natural hazards; this approach has been developed within the framework of the European project ARCH. Urban areas are regarded as complex social-ecological systems whose various dimensions should be considered in this resilience endeavor, during all phases of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation cycle. The work presented in this paper specifically targets the possible impacts and risks that might affect the cultural heritage subsystems of our cities, generally underrepresented in the international literature related to urban resilience assessment. We describe how we applied our approach to the Camerino municipality, a historic Italian town exposed to seismic risk, which was struck by a severe earthquake sequence in 2016–2017 and discuss the results of our experience. Full article

The conservation of the historical and artistic heritage is one of the main priorities of Italian and international policy. The great variety of masonry buildings that make up this heritage is characterized by different combinations of materials and construction techniques. Then, several damage scenarios could be observed as a result, requiring appropriate retrofitting interventions. A rather accurate structural behavior analysis, especially for horizontal load conditions, allows for elaborating a correct seismic assessment. Albeit there are various numerical tools available to examine them, each one’s process starts by means of certain assumptions that could not be applied indiscriminately. This paper aims to compare two different types of modeling techniques to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. To achieve this goal, an earthquake-damaged complex in Central Italy was chosen as a case study. The structure was modeled using a finite element (continuous) and a distinct element (discontinuous) method. Both approaches underwent a nonlinear dynamic analysis using the strong motions recorded during the 2016 seismic sequence. The results show that both approaches can evaluate the weak structural points. However, in some cases, the distinct element method appeared more accurate in reproducing the cracks. Full article

Carbonate aquifers are characterised by strong heterogeneities and their modelling is often a challenging aspect in hydrological studies. Understanding carbonate aquifers can be more complicated in the case of strong seismic events which have been widely demonstrated to influence groundwater flow over wide areas or on a local scale. The 2016–2017 seismic sequence of Central Italy is a paradigmatic example of how earthquakes play an important role in groundwater and surface water modifications. The Campiano catchment, which experienced significant discharge modifications immediately after the mainshocks of the 2016–2017 seismic sequence (Mmax = 6.5) has been analysed in this study. The study area is within an Italian national park (Sibillini Mts.) and thus has importance from a naturalistic and socio-economic standpoint. The research strategy coupled long-period artificial tracer tests (conducted both before and after the main earthquakes), geochemical and discharge analyses and isotope hydrology with hydrogeological cross-sections. This study highlights how the seismic sequence temporarily changed the behaviour of the normal faults which act predominantly as barriers to flow in the inter-seismic period, with water flow being normally favoured along the fault strikes. On the contrary, during earthquakes, groundwater flow can be significantly diverted perpendicularly to fault-strikes due to co-seismic fracturing and a consequent permeability increase. The interaction between groundwater and surface water is not only important from the point of view of scientific research but also has significant implications at an economic and social level. Full article

The increasing availability of satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images is opening new opportunities for operational support to predictive maintenance and emergency actions. With the purpose of investigating the performances of SAR images characterized by different geometric resolutions for post-earthquake damage detection and mapping, we analyzed three SAR image datasets (Sentinel-1, COSMO-SkyMed Spotlight, and COSMO-SkyMed StripMap) available in Norcia (Central Italy) that were severely affected by a strong seismic sequence in 2016. By applying the amplitude and the coherent change detection processing tools, we compared pairs of images with equivalent features collected before and after the main shock on 30 October 2016 (at 06:40, UTC). Results were compared against each other and then measured against the findings of post-earthquake field surveys for damage assessment, performed by the Italian National Fire and Rescue Service (Corpo Nazionale dei Vigili del Fuoco—CNVVF). Thanks to the interesting and very rare opportunity to have pre-event COSMO-SkyMed Spotlight images, we determined that 1 × 1-m nominal geometric resolutions can provide very detailed single-building damage mapping, while COSMO-SkyMed StripMap HIMAGE images at 3 × 3-m resolutions return relatively good detections of damaged buildings; and, the Sentinel-1 images did not allow acquiring information on single buildings—they simply provided approximate identifications of the most severely damaged sectors. The main outcomes of the performance investigation we carried out in this work can be exploited considering the exponentially growing satellite market in terms of revisit time and image resolution. Full article

Between August 2016 and January 2017, a very energetic seismic sequence induced substantial horizontal and vertical ground displacements in the Central Italian Apennines. After this event, the Italian Military Geographical Institute (IGM), owner and manager of the Italian geodetic networks, executed several topographic surveys in the earthquake area in order to update the coordinates of vertices belonging to the IGM95 geodetic network. The measurements began in the areas where the most significant deformation occurred: the localities of Amatrice and Accumoli, in the Rieti Province, and the area covering Norcia and Castelluccio, in the Province of Perugia, all the way to Visso (Province of Macerata). The activities described in this paper focused on the updated measurement of the IGM95 network points through GNSS and the restatement of extensive parts of the high precision geometric lines that were levelled until reaching stable zones. This unprecedented amount of data was used for a new geological interpretation of the seismic sequence, which confirms some of the previous hypotheses of the scientific community. In the analyzed territory, the latest estimate of the geodetic position points has allowed for an accurate determination of the east and the north and of the altitude components of the displacement induced by the earthquake through a comparison with the previous coordinates. The results confirm that the seismicity was induced by normal faults system activity. Still, they also indicate the possible influence of a significant regional thrust that conditioned the propagation of the seismicity in the area. The obtained maps of the displacement are coherent with other geodetic works and with a rupture propagation driven by the documented geotectonic structure. Full article

We applied a new version of physics-based earthquake simulator upon a seismogenic model of the Italian seismicity derived from the latest version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS). We elaborated appropriately for their use within the simulator all fault systems identified in the study area. We obtained synthetic catalogs spanning hundreds of thousands of years. The resulting synthetic seismic catalogs exhibit typical magnitude, space and time features that are comparable to those obtained by real observations. A typical aspect of the observed seismicity is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple main shocks of similar magnitude. Special attention was devoted to verifying whether the simulated catalogs include this notable aspect, by the use of an especially developed computer code. We found that the phenomenon of Coulomb stress transfer from causative to receiving source patches during an earthquake rupture has a critical role in the behavior of seismicity patterns in the simulated catalogs. We applied the simulator to the seismicity of the northern and central Apennines and compared the resulting synthetic catalog with the observed seismicity for the period 1650–2020. The result of this comparison supports the hypothesis that the occurrence of sequences containing multiple mainshocks is not just a casual circumstance. Full article

Past earthquakes have highlighted the seismic vulnerability of prefabricated industrial sheds typical of past Italian building practices. Such buildings typically exhibited rigid collapse mechanisms due to the absence of rigid links between columns, beams, and roof elements. This study aims at presenting the experimental and numerical assessment of a novel dissipative connection system (DCS) designed to improve the seismic performance of prefabricated sheds. The device, which is placed on the top of columns, exploits the movement of a rigid slider on a sloped surface to dissipate seismic energy and control the lateral displacement of the beam, and to provide a recentering effect at the end of the earthquake. The backbone curve of the DCS, and the effect of vertical load, sliding velocity, and number of cycles were assessed in experimental tests conducted on a scaled prototype, according to a test protocol designed accounting for similarity requirements. In the second part of the study, non-linear dynamic analyses were performed on a finite element model of a portal frame implementing, at beam-column joints, either the DCS or a pure friction connection. The results highlighted the effectiveness of the DCS in controlling beam-to-column displacements, reducing shear forces on the top of columns, and limiting residual displacements that can accrue during ground motion sequences. Full article

This paper presents a detailed study of the damages and collapses suffered by various masonry churches in the aftermath of the seismic sequence of Central Italy in 2016. The damages will first be analyzed and then compared with the numerical data obtained through 3D simulations with eigenfrequency and then nonlinear static analyses (i.e., pushover). The main purposes of this study are: (i) to create an adequately consistent sensitivity study on several definite case studies to obtain an insight into the role played by geometry—which is always unique when referred to churches—and by irregularities; (ii) validate or address the applicability limits of the more widespread nonlinear approach, widely recommended by the Italian Technical Regulations. Pushover analyses are conducted assuming that the masonry behaves as a nonlinear material with different tensile and compressive strengths. The consistent number of case studies investigated will show how conventional static approaches can identify, albeit in a qualitative way, the most critical macro-elements that usually trigger both global and local collapses, underlining once again how the phenomena are affected by the geometry of stones and bricks, the texture of the wall face, and irregularities in the plan and elevation and in addition to hypotheses made on the continuity between orthogonal walls. Full article