Extreme Weather Modeling and Forecasting

A special issue of Stats (ISSN 2571-905X).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 25 March 2027 | Viewed by 1641

Editor


E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
Interests: biostatistics; quantitative finance; errors in variable regression (EIV); structural equation modeling (SEM); experimental design; statistical learning
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme weather events—including hurricanes and typhoons, flash floods, blizzards, and episodes of extreme heat or cold—pose profound threats to communities and ecosystems worldwide. Recent advances in real-time data acquisition (e.g., satellite- and sensor-based observations), expanding computational capabilities, and rapid developments in machine learning have created new opportunities to enhance classical physics-based approaches for modeling and predicting extreme weather.

This Special Issue of Stats invites high-quality submissions that develop or employ data-drivenphysics-informed, or hybrid modeling frameworks for extreme weather analysis and forecasting. Contributions may include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Innovative statistical or machine learning approaches for extreme weather prediction;
  • Hybrid data–physics or physics-informed statistical or machine learning models;
  • Uncertainty quantification for extreme weather forecasts;
  • Advances in data assimilation and use of large-scale observational datasets;
  • Case studies demonstrating improved forecasting performance;
  • Methodological comparisons between classical and modern approaches.

All submissions will undergo rigorous peer review. We welcome both methodological developments and application-driven research that demonstrate clear advances in understanding or forecasting extreme weather phenomena.

Prof. Dr. Wei Zhu
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-anonymized peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Stats is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • extreme weather events
  • extreme weather analysis and forecasting
  • statistics

Benefits of Publishing in a Special Issue

  • Ease of navigation: Grouping papers by topic helps scholars navigate broad scope journals more efficiently.
  • Greater discoverability: Special Issues support the reach and impact of scientific research. Articles in Special Issues are more discoverable and cited more frequently.
  • Expansion of research network: Special Issues facilitate connections among authors, fostering scientific collaborations.
  • External promotion: Articles in Special Issues are often promoted through the journal's social media, increasing their visibility.
  • Reprint: MDPI Books provides the opportunity to republish successful Special Issues in book format, both online and in print.

Further information on MDPI's Special Issue policies can be found here.

Published Papers (2 papers)

Order results
Result details
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

24 pages, 544 KB  
Article
Extreme Rainfall Modelling Using Time-Varying Threshold Generalised Pareto Regression Trees
by Matome Lesley Sebola and Daniel Maposa
Stats 2026, 9(3), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/stats9030053 - 28 May 2026
Viewed by 572
Abstract
The escalating frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change threaten infrastructure resilience and societal safety, underscoring the urgent need for robust models to predict these events. Previous studies on the integration of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and machine learning [...] Read more.
The escalating frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change threaten infrastructure resilience and societal safety, underscoring the urgent need for robust models to predict these events. Previous studies on the integration of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and machine learning in modelling extreme rainfall events have not explored the use of a time-varying threshold. This study introduces a novel time-varying threshold Generalised Pareto (GP) regression tree for modelling extreme rainfall in Durban, South Africa. The proposed hybrid model combines EVT with covariate-driven regression tree partitioning, allowing the threshold to evolve dynamically with meteorological conditions. Using daily rainfall and meteorological covariate data from 1981 to 2025, the model was developed, pruned, and benchmarked against a static-threshold GP regression tree and a time-varying threshold Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD). Evaluation based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood demonstrated the superior performance of the proposed model in capturing covariate-driven heterogeneity and temporal variability of rainfall extremes. Four distinct climatic regimes with different tail behaviours and return levels were identified. This study provides the first meteorological application of a time-varying threshold GP regression tree and offers practical insights into flood risk assessment and climate resilience planning in the city of Durban. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Modeling and Forecasting)
Show Figures

Figure 1

26 pages, 1077 KB  
Article
Global Versus Australian Progress in Multi-Pollutant Air Quality: GAM-Based Trend Analysis and a Clean-Air Progress Index (1990–2019)
by Khaled Haddad
Stats 2026, 9(3), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/stats9030048 - 13 May 2026
Viewed by 427
Abstract
Reliable tracking of multi-pollutant air-quality progress is essential for assessing policy effectiveness and health risks, yet most assessments still focus on single pollutants. We analysed population-weighted exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and household air pollution [...] Read more.
Reliable tracking of multi-pollutant air-quality progress is essential for assessing policy effectiveness and health risks, yet most assessments still focus on single pollutants. We analysed population-weighted exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and household air pollution (HAP) for Australia and the global average over 1990–2019, using harmonised estimates from a Global Burden of Disease–type framework. Non-parametric LOESS and semi-parametric generalised additive models were applied to characterise long-term trends, and a composite clean-air progress index (CAPI; 1990 = 1) was constructed to summarise joint changes in the three pollutants. Statistical and Monte Carlo methods were used to propagate reported exposure uncertainty into both pollutant-specific trends and the composite index. Globally, exposures to PM2.5, NO2 and HAP all declined, and the CAPI fell to around 0.7 by 2019, indicating substantial multi-pollutant improvement relative to 1990. In Australia, NO2 decreased more rapidly than the global mean, but PM2.5 showed little long-term decline and the HAP-related metric increased more than three-fold. As a result, Australia’s CAPI rose to approximately 1.6–1.7, with Monte Carlo uncertainty envelopes remaining well above 1 from the early 2000s onwards. Correlation analyses revealed that pollutants improved together at the global scale, but were partially decoupled in Australia, implying that source-specific gains have not translated into aggregate clean-air progress. These findings demonstrate that single-pollutant assessments can obscure important trade-offs and that multi-pollutant, uncertainty-aware indices such as CAPI provide a more informative basis for benchmarking national trajectories against global experience and for guiding integrated clean-air policy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Modeling and Forecasting)
Show Figures

Figure 1

Back to TopTop