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Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets
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Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets

A special issue of Commodities (ISSN 2813-2432).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2026 | Viewed by 9960

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mariette Geyser

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Economic and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
Interests: agricultural marketing; agribusiness; agribusiness economics; marketing; agribusiness management; farm management; value chain analysis; farming; agricultural economics
Prof. Dr. Anmar Pretorius

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Economic and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
Interests: financial economics; applied econometrics; local economic development

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

1. Geopolitical economy of food systems.

This theme examines the impact of geopolitical factors on global food systems, with tariff wars, supply chain nationalization, sanctions, and strategic reserve policies reshaping trade flows and market access for major agricultural commodities. Additionally, it investigates the implications for regional food security and the role of international policy interventions.

2. Climate-resilient commodity value chains.

This theme investigates the adaptation and transformation of commodity value chains in response to escalating climate threats and sustainability demands. It explores market-based resilience mechanisms, such as parametric insurance products, climate-indexed derivatives, and carbon removal verification commodity contracts. The emphasis is on building adaptive and sustainable value chains that mitigate climate risks while ensuring environmental stewardship and economic viability.

3. AI, IoT, and Blockchain in commodity markets.

This theme explores the transformative impact of digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and Blockchain on agricultural commodity markets. These technologies are revolutionizing price discovery, risk management, and traceability systems by eliminating information asymmetries, reducing transaction costs, and enabling data-driven decision making.

4. Circular bioeconomy.

This theme focuses on the transition towards a circular bioeconomy, emphasizing the sustainable use of biological resources, waste reduction, and the creation of value-added products from agricultural commodities.

5. Innovations in commodity derivative markets.

This area examines recent advancements and innovations in commodity derivative markets, including algorithm trading, climate related indexed futures, ESG-linked contracts, and blockchain-enabled trading platforms. The focus is on how these innovations improve market efficiency, liquidity, and risk management.

6. Small-holder farmer inclusion.

This theme investigates strategies for integrating small-holder farmers into global commodity markets, addressing challenges related to market access, financial inclusion, and capacity building. It explores the role of digital platforms, micro-financing, and cooperative models in democratizing market participation, ensuring equitable growth, and enhancing livelihood security.

This Special Issue will serve as a crucial reference point for understanding the multidimensional transformation occurring across agricultural commodity markets. By bringing together perspectives from economics, agronomy, climate science, and technology studies, it offers policymakers and market participants a comprehensive framework for navigating the rapidly changing landscape of agricultural commodity markets in an era of heightened uncertainty and technological promise. This Special Issue will contribute to scholarly debates on market resilience, sustainability, and inclusive growth in an era of heightened uncertainty and technological advancement.

Dr. Mariette Geyser
Prof. Dr. Anmar Pretorius
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Commodities is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1000 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • geopolitical economy of food systems
  • climate-resilient commodity value chains
  • AI, IoT and Blockchain in commodity markets
  • circular bioeconomy
  • small-holder farmer inclusion
  • innovations in commodity derivative markets

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

27 pages, 1794 KB  
Article
Can Agriculture Benefit from a Potential Free Trade Agreement Between SACU and the US?
by Tiroyaone Ambrose Sirang, Waldo Krugell, Lorainne Ferreira and Riaan Rossouw
Commodities 2025, 4(4), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4040030 - 16 Dec 2025
Abstract
The Trump administration signalled a shift toward protectionism in U.S. trade policy, imposing tariffs on imports from both strategic partners and competitors, which generated renewed uncertainty in international trade relations and the future of existing frameworks such as the African Growth and Opportunity [...] Read more.
The Trump administration signalled a shift toward protectionism in U.S. trade policy, imposing tariffs on imports from both strategic partners and competitors, which generated renewed uncertainty in international trade relations and the future of existing frameworks such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). Earlier analysis has shown that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the United States can be trade-creating and lead to improved macroeconomic outcomes in SACU countries. However, these positive effects decline over time, with varying impacts across different industries, influenced by initial tariff levels and export orientation relative to the US. This paper examines whether there are economic and strategic incentives for SACU to negotiate a more beneficial agreement than a simple across-the-board elimination of ad valorem import tariffs. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the paper examines the outcomes if cereals, poultry, dairy products, red meat, and sugar products—often classified as sensitive due to their labour intensity, food security implications, and exposure to import competition—were to retain some level of protection under a SACU–US Free Trade Agreement. The results suggest that while the FTA boosts key macroeconomic indicators in the short run, gains taper off over time. Crucially, real wages and employment remain stagnant, and terms of trade deteriorate, raising questions about the inclusivity and sustainability of such a deal. Shielding vulnerable sectors initially enhances SACU’s exports and supports some industry growth, particularly in agriculture. However, without broader reforms and export diversification, long-term competitiveness remains weak. A nuanced FTA design, combined with structural support policies, is essential to unlock lasting and inclusive trade benefits. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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20 pages, 402 KB  
Article
Volatility Spillovers and Market Integration in South Africa’s Fresh Produce Markets
by David Kalima, Mariëtte Geyser and Andrea Saayman
Commodities 2025, 4(4), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4040029 - 4 Dec 2025
Viewed by 160
Abstract
Price volatility in the South African fresh produce market poses significant risks to the entire value chain. This study examines the extent of price volatility and spillover effects in these markets to improve price risk management and enhance market stability. Using weekly price [...] Read more.
Price volatility in the South African fresh produce market poses significant risks to the entire value chain. This study examines the extent of price volatility and spillover effects in these markets to improve price risk management and enhance market stability. Using weekly price data for eight major vegetables (cabbages, carrots, garlic, onions, potatoes, sweet potatoes, spinach, and tomatoes) collected from 19 regional fresh produce markets, volatility patterns were initially assessed with descriptive statistics. Time-varying volatility persistence was modelled using ARCH and GARCH frameworks. The DCC-GARCH framework was used to evaluate spillover effects between markets, and cointegration analysis is employed to determine both short- and long-run interdependencies. The results confirm the existence of spillover effects and patterns of price volatility in the fresh produce markets. We found volatility spillovers between key regional markets. For example, Johannesburg and Tshwane fresh produce markets (large central markets) transmit to several smaller markets, as indicated by significant DCC-GARCH spillover coefficients. Cointegration results show the partial integration of fresh produce markets, suggesting that price movements and volatility are interconnected across regions. This empirical result underscores the importance of understanding price risk management strategies in fresh produce markets and helps value chain decision makers better understand, anticipate, or test the possible effects of price volatility in fresh produce markets at any given time. Policy makers and other stakeholders in the value chain are equipped with knowledge of how best to serve society. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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16 pages, 657 KB  
Article
Government Announcements Through Harvest Reports, Extreme Market Conditions, and Commodity Price Volatility
by Erica Juvercina Sobrinho and Rodrigo Fernandes Malaquias
Commodities 2025, 4(4), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4040021 - 24 Sep 2025
Viewed by 509
Abstract
The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between the tone of information released in government harvest reports, in extreme market conditions (rising and falling), and the behavior of agricultural commodity prices. In the period between January/2017 and February/2023, an autoregressive [...] Read more.
The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between the tone of information released in government harvest reports, in extreme market conditions (rising and falling), and the behavior of agricultural commodity prices. In the period between January/2017 and February/2023, an autoregressive model of moving averages was used with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach. The evidence allows us to infer that investors can, on some occasions, use this information to direct their portfolios in order to balance risk and return. However, the full impact of the tone is not reflected immediately, possibly requiring time to be absorbed. Depending on the informational weight, the commodity, and the market context, there may or may not be an impact. This divergent empirical evidence indicates that there is a complex relationship between tone reading and asset pricing. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
15 pages, 1321 KB  
Article
Impact of COVID-19-Related Mobility Changes on the Mango Market: A Case Study of Tokyo, Japan
by Md Shahed Almi Sajid and Kentaka Aruga
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030019 - 8 Sep 2025
Viewed by 1059
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo mango market by combining transaction data from the Ota Fruit Market with Google Mobility indices. In Japan, mangoes are regarded as a luxury fruit, largely dependent on imports and associated with [...] Read more.
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo mango market by combining transaction data from the Ota Fruit Market with Google Mobility indices. In Japan, mangoes are regarded as a luxury fruit, largely dependent on imports and associated with high domestic production costs, which positions them as premium commodities. To assess the influence of price dynamics and human mobility on mango trading volumes during the pandemic, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The long-run results indicate that mango demand was positively associated with increased residential activity: a 1% rise in time spent at home during the COVID era corresponded to an increase of 786 kg in trade volume. Similarly, a 1% increase in time spent in retail and recreation areas was associated with a 364 kg rise in trade volume. In contrast, time spent in grocery and pharmacy locations showed no statistically significant effect. In the short run, fluctuations in mobility patterns and price levels contributed to variations in demand, with sales volumes adjusting toward their long-run equilibrium. The mobility indices exhibited mixed short-term effects on trade volumes. Notably, the analysis revealed that mango trading volumes rebounded in 2022, coinciding with the easing of pandemic-related disruptions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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12 pages, 2438 KB  
Article
Trends and Challenges in Gum Arabic Markets in Key Producing Countries in Africa (Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, and Senegal)
by Moammar Dayoub
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030016 - 21 Aug 2025
Viewed by 4992
Abstract
Gum arabic production is a key source of income for communities in several African countries. Despite this, producing nations capture only a small share of the market value due to weak domestic markets, low price incentives, and limited value-added. Meanwhile, global demand is [...] Read more.
Gum arabic production is a key source of income for communities in several African countries. Despite this, producing nations capture only a small share of the market value due to weak domestic markets, low price incentives, and limited value-added. Meanwhile, global demand is expected to grow from USD 1.1 billion in 2025 to USD 2.2 billion by 2035, driven by rising consumption in food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and textiles. Importing countries, such as France and the US, benefit from significantly higher export prices—French export prices rose from USD 1.58/kg to USD 4.63/kg—highlighting the value added from outside producer regions. This study uses a qualitative analytical approach to examine trends and challenges in enhancing value capture within producer countries. Key strategies include local value-added, collective action, compliance with international standards, market transparency, and direct trade linkages. Findings suggest that implementing these measures could raise farmgate prices by 30–50%, retain more value within African economies, and improve access to premium export markets. In conclusion, targeted interventions are crucial for strengthening the gum arabic supply chain and promoting sustainable and equitable collection practices in producer countries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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19 pages, 398 KB  
Article
EUDR Compliance in Ghana’s Natural Rubber Sector and Its Implications for Smallholders
by Stephan Mabica, Erasmus Narteh Tetteh, Ingrid Fromm and Caleb Melenya Ocansey
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030014 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 2292
Abstract
The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder [...] Read more.
The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder producers in Ghana, considering both the opportunities and risks associated with the evolving regulatory environment under EUDR and local market access conditions. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate the impact of different EUDR-related export decline scenarios on the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation. The results suggest that even a minor 2.5% decline in global exports to the EU could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent compliant producer. However, a simulated COVID-19-like crisis in the fifth year of production leads to a 20% decline in NPV, reflecting vulnerability to external shocks. Based on these findings, the study identifies two priorities. This first is improving the coordination and harmonization of compliance efforts across the value chain to enable more producers to benefit from potential EUDR-related price increases. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to support such collective mechanisms. Second, minimizing losses during demand shocks requires the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to establish clear rules and transparent reporting for authorizing unprocessed rubber exports when factories reduce purchases due to low international prices—thus preserving market access for vulnerable producers. Together, these approaches would ensure that the potential benefits of the EUDR are realized inclusively, remain stable despite market downturns, and do not undermine value addition in domestic processing factories. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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