Hydroclimate Extremes Under Climate Change

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 24 February 2026 | Viewed by 908

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Guest Editor
James Watt School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
Interests: hydrologic frequency analysis; climate change impact on extremes; regional frequency analysis; spatial modeling; hydrological modeling
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

As the climate continues to change, extreme hydrological events —such as intense rainfall, prolonged droughts, and severe floods —are becoming more frequent and intense. These shifts in hydroclimate patterns present serious challenges to water resource management, infrastructure resilience, and ecosystem health. Understanding how these extremes are evolving across both space and time is crucial for effective planning and climate adaptation.

This Special Issue invites original research on hydroclimatic extremes in the context of climate change, with a focus on both historical analyses and future projections. Contributions using CMIP6 climate model outputs, regional frequency analysis, non-stationary extreme value approaches, and spatial modeling techniques are particularly encouraged. Studies should aim to identify trends, evaluate non-stationarity, and quantify uncertainties in hydroclimate variables across diverse geographic and climatic settings.

We also welcome research on compound events (e.g., simultaneous droughts and heatwaves) and the role of climate teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, NAO) in influencing regional hydrology. Submissions may draw upon observational data, reanalysis products, or modeling frameworks, including statistical and machine learning methods.

This issue aims to promote interdisciplinary research that enhances the understanding and prediction of hydroclimate extremes, thereby supporting science-informed risk assessment and water management in a changing climate.

Dr. Samiran Das
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • extreme precipitation 
  • flood risk assessment 
  • drought variability 
  • climate change impact 
  • hydrological modeling

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

29 pages, 8075 KB  
Article
Long-Term Temperature and Precipitation Trends Across South America, Urban Centers, and Brazilian Biomes
by José Roberto Rozante, Gabriela Rozante and Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti
Atmosphere 2025, 16(12), 1332; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121332 - 25 Nov 2025
Viewed by 470
Abstract
This study examines long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) near-surface air temperatures and precipitation across South America, focusing on Brazilian biomes and national capitals, using ERA5 reanalysis data for 1979–2024. To isolate the underlying climate signal, seasonal cycles were removed using [...] Read more.
This study examines long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) near-surface air temperatures and precipitation across South America, focusing on Brazilian biomes and national capitals, using ERA5 reanalysis data for 1979–2024. To isolate the underlying climate signal, seasonal cycles were removed using Seasonal-Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL), which effectively separates short-term variability from long-term trends. Temperature trends were quantified using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, allowing consistent estimation of linear changes over time, while precipitation trends were assessed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test combined with Theil–Sen slope estimation, a robust approach that minimizes the influence of outliers and serial correlation in hydroclimatic data. Results indicate widespread but spatially heterogeneous warming, with Tmax increasing faster than Tmin, consistent with reduced cloudiness and evaporative cooling. A meridional precipitation dipole is evident, with drying across the Cerrado, Pantanal, Caatinga, and Pampa, contrasted by rainfall increases in northern South America linked to ITCZ shifts. The Pantanal emerges as the most vulnerable biome, showing strong warming (+0.51 °C decade−1) and the steepest rainfall decline (−10.45 mm decade−1). Satellite-based fire detections (2013–2024) reveal rising wildfire activity in the Amazon, Pantanal, and Cerrado, aligning with the “hotter and drier” climate regime. In the capitals, persistent Tmax increases suggest enhanced urban heat island effects, with implications for public health and energy demand. Although ERA5 provides coherent spatial coverage, regional biases and sparse in situ observations introduce uncertainties, particularly in the Amazon and Andes, these do not alter the principal finding that the magnitude and persistence of the 1979–2024 warming lie well above the range of interdecadal variability typically associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This provides strong evidence that the recent warming is not cyclical but reflects the externally forced secular warming signal. These findings underscore growing fire risk, ecosystem stress, and urban vulnerability, highlighting the urgency of targeted adaptation and resilience strategies under accelerating climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydroclimate Extremes Under Climate Change)
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