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Entry
Peer-Review Record

Lorenz’s View on the Predictability Limit of the Atmosphere

Encyclopedia 2023, 3(3), 887-899; https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia3030063
by Bo-Wen Shen 1,*, Roger A. Pielke, Sr. 2, Xubin Zeng 3 and Xiping Zeng 4
Reviewer 1: Anonymous
Reviewer 2:
Reviewer 3: Anonymous
Encyclopedia 2023, 3(3), 887-899; https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia3030063
Submission received: 19 May 2023 / Revised: 14 July 2023 / Accepted: 18 July 2023 / Published: 22 July 2023
(This article belongs to the Section Earth Sciences)

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The manuscript is clear and interesting. I have some comments to strengthen the arguments in the manuscript.

1. There have been several advances in prediction in chaotic dynamical systems in recent years using reservoir computing. These advances also likely have an effect on the 2 week prediction window.

2. There was no mention of statistical prediction vs. dynamical prediction. This is fundamental in weather prediction.

3. Line 319: It's well known that in chaotic and turbulent systems coherent structures may form (vortices, etc.). Thus "order" and "chaos" are not exactly opposites. Your characterization of weather as choatic with order would not be accepted by many in the community and you should note that.

The manuscript is generally well written and reads well. There are no significant issues with the quality of the English in the manuscript. A light read-over might detect a few minor errors, but that's all.

Author Response

Please refer to the attached PDF file for our responses. Thank you very much.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

This questioning of the "two-week predictability limit" is scientifically and practically meaningful. The authors' augments are reasonable. I enjoyed my reading of the manuscript. There is one minor error which needs to be corrected: 

Line 162: The abbreviation PDEs needs to be spelled out when it appears in the first time (line 162) but not in a later time (line 200).

I recommend that the submitted entry should be published after the minor error is corrected. 

Author Response

Please refer to the attached PDF file for our responses. Thank you very much.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

In this study, authors have tried to investigate the Predictability Limit of the Atmosphere using the Lorenz model.  I found the study lies within the scope of the journal; however, it needs some modification/clarification before acceptance. 

(i) Abstract needs to reformulate, with the major finding of the study, and remove the part that can be part of the methodology.

(ii) The quality of Figure 1 is not good. Please increase the font size of the text.

(iii) Authors mentioned that Table 1 is derived from Table 3 of the Lorenz model and present Table 3 within Table 1. It isn't easy to follow, with very less information in the table caption. Please provide complete detail in the caption.

(iv) Line 295 Author mentioned the previous study by  Judt (2018) that reported 2-3 weeks of predictability limit of the troposphere. Here, please include the predictability limit of which variable.  Similarly, many more studies, have reported the  2-3 weeks of the Indian summer monsoon—for example, Dwivedi et 2012, and Mishra et al. 2020. These studies also mentioned that the limit also depends upon the data used. Please discuss, these aspects in the discussion. 

Dwivedi, S. (2012). Quantifying predictability of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations using nonlinear time series analysis. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(4), 413–419.Mishra, A.K., Dwivedi, S. & Di Sante, F. Performance of the RegCM-MITgcm Coupled Regional Model in Simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Pure Appl. Geophys. 178, 603–617 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02648-0

Author Response

Please refer to the attached PDF file for our responses. Thank you very much.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

None.

Author Response

Thanks very much!

Reviewer 2 Report

I am satisfied with the authors' revision.

Author Response

Thanks very much!

Reviewer 3 Report

The authors have addressed all the concerns raised. It can be published in the present form. 

Author Response

Thanks very much!

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