5. Discussion
In this study, we developed a comprehensive framework for glioma biomarker discovery that integrates a H-VAE with SHAP interpretability to identify molecular features associated with glioma subtypes. The framework’s pipeline is strengthened by a multi-layered validation strategy of the identified biomarkers, including DEA, DNA methylation analysis, and BN modeling to reveal potential relationships among them. The H-VAE demonstrated high performance in the pan-cancer classification task, achieving a near-perfect AUC of
, which represents a notable improvement over the original CustOmics model (AUC of
). We attribute this improvement to our two-stage hyperparameter optimization strategy (see
Section 3.3), where AUC was explicitly defined as the optimization objective. This result serves as strong evidence of the powerful functionalities of the Optuna optimization framework. However, this near-perfect performance must be contextualized within the inherent dataset structure and high class separability of pan-cancer studies. Because samples originating from disparate organ systems possess distinct multi-omics profiles, most cancer classes are biologically well-separated within the feature space, which intrinsically facilitates high classification accuracy.
Figure 9.
Consensus Bayesian networks for DNA methylaion data. Figures (A–C) illustrate the BN derived from (A) LGG samples, (B) GBM samples, and (C) GBM and LGG samples. Each node corresponds to a feature selected by the H-VAE model. Direct edges denote the conditional dependencies learned by the BN.
Beyond its high performance, the model’s behavior revealed a strong alignment with established biological knowledge. Analysis of the aggregated confusion matrix revealed that the most frequent misclassifications occurred between cancer types sharing a common origin organ system, specifically, between COAD and READ, and between LUAD and LUSC. The difficulty in distinguishing COAD from READ is a well-recognized challenge. Due to their shared origin in the large intestine and highly similar molecular profiles, these cancers are often grouped under the collective term CRC [
29]. Similarly, although LUAD and LUSC exhibit distinct histological and molecular characteristics [
30], they are also known to share common mutations, such as a mutation in the tumor suppressor gene
TP53 [
31,
32], which, coupled with their shared tissue of origin, likely contributed to the observed model misclassifications. A similar pattern is observed in gynecologic cancers, where the model misclassified CESC samples for UCEC samples. Crucially, while the model achieves high accuracy across most cancer types, its reduced performance when subtyping cancers between the same organs of origin, reflects the intrinsic biological ambiguity within these groups.
Investigation into the biological context of the selected features by the H-VAE model, provided intriguing insights. Specifically for the GBM cohort, our framework identified a set of both well-established and novel biomarkers. Among the established markers are
GFAP,
AQP4,
HEPACAM, and
CHI3L1, genes with extensive literature supporting their association with glioma biology. Additionally, our model consistently identified the
HNRNPCL1 gene as related to GBM. Although
HNRNPCL1 has only been identified as a potential biomarker for endometrial cancer [
33], our findings suggest its potential involvement in glioma. Among the top-ranked were also
EIF3CL and
MIR9-1HG. Despite having been reported only once in the context of gliomas [
34,
35], our results reinforce their potential association with gliomas. Furthermore, the model uncovered six novel candidate biomarkers for GBM:
LINC02172,
NACA2,
LINC01114,
HNRNPA1P48,
PPIAL4G, and
LINC01558. Among these, differential expression analysis showed that
NACA2,
HNRNPA1P48, and
LINC01558 were overexpressed in GBM samples. While there are currently no literature reports connecting these specific biomarkers to gliomas, database annotations reveal interesting insights [
36]. Notably, the long non-coding RNA
LINC01114 is associated with childhood ependymoma, a primary glial tumor of the central nervous system. Additionally,
HNRNPA1P48 is associated with frontotemporal dementia, and
PPIAL4G with epileptic encephalopathies, both of which are neurological disorders. Furthermore,
HNRNPA1P48 is predicted to regulate mRNA splicing via the spliceosome, a critical mechanism in the development of the brain, while both
PPIAL4G and
NACA2 are involved in cellular protein folding.
Analysis of the DNA methylation profiles of the selected probes for GBM revealed several noteworthy patterns. The probe cg19081101, mapping to the promoter region (TSS1500) of
CHI3L1, exhibited the strongest hypomethylation in GBM (
) which coincided with a marked upregulation of the gene in GBM samples, in our DEA. This aligns with studies reporting that
CHI3L1 influences several mechanisms crucial to GBM progression, potentially being a therapeutic target [
37]. More notably, in LGG, the hypomethylation of this probe was considerably attenuated (
), and in our DEA,
CHI3L1 showed no significant expression change, suggesting that the degree of methylation of this probe may contribute to the transcriptional activation of
CHI3L1. The probe cg03349020, located within a CpG island in the gene body of
FBXL16, was found to be similarly hypermethylated in both GBM and LGG. Concurrently, our DEA showed that this gene is downregulated in both cohorts, with the effect being substantially more pronounced in GBM.
FBXL16 is known to function as a component of E3 ubiquitin ligase complexes, which are known to drive pro-survival signaling and therapy resistance in glioblastoma [
38]. These findings point to a possible relationship between the hypermethylation of cg03349020 and the silencing of this gene. Finally, the probe cg05447100, mapping to the gene body of
LINC01558, displayed significant hypomethylated only in GBM, which was accompanied by an upregulation of this gene in the same cohort. In LGG however, the probe showed no significant hypomehtylation nor differential expression, raising the possibility that the methylation state of this probe may influence
LINC01558.
Shifting to the LGG cohort, our model found a larger set of glioma-associated genes, though no novel biomarkers were identified. We believe this difference is mainly attributed to the difference in the number of samples between the two datasets, where we used 200 samples for the LGG SHAP values calculation and only 33 for the GBM cohort. This larger sample size potentially allowed the model to better estimate the SHAP values for the LGG cohort, which is reflected in the increased number of glioma-associated genes identified. These include
GFAP,
OLIG1,
OLIG2,
SLC1A2,
MIR21,
ANXA2, and
TGFBR2. Notably, the model highlighted
PMP2 in both GBM and LGG. Since
PMP2 encodes a myelin-associated protein [
36], its consistent identification across both glial-derived tumors is intriguing. Among the top LGG ranked features was
AMER2, which is a known negative regulator of the Wnt/
-catenin signaling pathway, whose dysregulation is an established driver of glioma pathogenesis, strongly suggesting
AMER2’s specific involvement in glioma biology.
The DNA methylation analysis for LGG revealed two probes of interest. The probe cg05935571, mapping to the promoter regions of both
OSBPL10 (TSS1500) and
ZNF860 (TSS200) within a CpG island, exhibited the strongest hypermethylation (
despite neither gene showing significant differential expression in this cohort. In GBM, the hypermethylation at this probe was less pronounced (
). However, our DEA revealed that
OSBPL10 was significantly upregulated in GBM samples, suggesting a possible relation between the strengh of methylation of this probe and suppression of transcription at this site. In an opposite way, the probe cg15171154, mapping to the promoter region (TSS200) of
TGFBR2, was strongly hypomethylated in both LGG and GBM, and our DEA identified the gene as upregulated in both cohorts. This is consistent with previous reports that identified
TGFBR2 as upregulated in both glioma grades [
39], and suggests a possible relation between the probe cg15171154 and the expression of
TGFBR2 in gliomas.
The constructed BNs provided a complementary perspective to our previous findings. In the joint gene expression network, the node defining the glioma subtype was directly influenced by the genes
NACA2 and
FKBP1C. Strikingly, high expression of both genes corresponded to a
probability of the sample being classified as GBM, while very low expression of both resulted in a
probability of LGG. This direct conditional relation further supports the potential relevance of
NACA2 as a candidate biomarker in gliomas. At the same time, while no literature currently reports a connection between
FKBP1C and gliomas, our findings suggest a possible involvement. In the LGG gene expression network, the model captured a strong correlation between
OLIG1 and
OLIG2, where high expression of
OLIG1 corresponded to high expression of
OLIG2. This further demonstrates the capability of BNs to recover established biological relationships, as
OLIG1 and
OLIG2 as
OLIG1 and
OLIG2 are closely related genes from the same chromosome and
OLIG2 is known to be highly expressed in all diffuse gliomas [
40]. Moreover, the network modeled relations supported by existing literature. Specifically, the model identified the co-regulation of
SLC6A1 and
GPM6A, both of which are known to participate in the Synaptic Neuron and Astrocyte Programme [
41]. Additionally, it linked
SLC6A1, which encodes the GAT-1 protein expressed in astrocytes [
42], to
GPR37L1, which has been implicated in astrocyte maturation [
43]. With respect to the DNA methylation networks, the model successfully captured intra-gene methylation coordination for
CCDC177,
VMP1, and
ZFPM1 in the joint network, where probes mapping to the same gene were connected by direct edges. Furthermore, in this joint methylation network, the probe cg04937416 (
PTPRN2) was modelled as directly influencing the glioma subtype, with high or medium methylation values corresponding to a
probability of LGG classification. In this context, recent work has identified
PTPRN2 as potentially involved in GBM cell migration [
44].
To assess the potential clinical relevance of the identified biomarkers, Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were performed on the combined TCGA-GBM and TCGA-LGG cohort, stratified by median expression. For gene expression data, high expression of
CHI3L1,
FKBP1C,
LINC01114,
HNRNPCL1,
NACA2,
PPIAL4G,
HNRNPA1P48,
EIF3CL,
LINC02172,
TGFBR2, and
LINC01558 was significantly associated with worse overall survival (log-rank
p < 0.0001), whereas low expression of
AMER2 and
MIR9-1HG was associated with reduced survival. For DNA methylation data, low methylation
-values at the probes cg19081101 (
CHI3L1), cg05935571 (
OSBPL10 and
ZNF860), cg04937416 (
PTPRN2), and cg04276626 (
VMP1 and
MIR21) were associated with significantly worse survival, while high
-values at cg15171154 (
TGFBR2) were associated with reduced survival time. To evaluate the reproducibility of these findings in an external dataset, we queried the CGGA survival analysis tool [
45] for the gene expression biomarkers found significant in our analysis. Of the seven biomarkers available on the CGGA platform,
CHI3L1,
FKBP1C,
HNRNPCL1,
NACA2,
HNRNPA1P48,
EIF3CL,
TGFBR2, and
AMER2, five were confirmed as significant:
CHI3L1 (
p < 0.0001),
TGFBR2 (
p < 0.0001),
AMER2 (
p < 0.0001),
FKBP1C (
p = 0.00028), and
HNRNPCL1 (
p = 0.0011), all exhibiting the same directional relationship between expression and survival as observed in our survival analysis. Crucially, the fact that
AMER2,
FKBP1C, and
HNRNPCL1, which had only been previously associated with other cancer types, were found to be prognostically significant in both TCGA and CGGA glioma cohorts further reinforces their potential involvement in glioma biology.
Although promising, MOHVAE-B has its limitations. Firstly, despite employing the TOIL recompute dataset and ensuring platform consistency to mitigate technical variations, residual cross-cohort confounding may persist. Because tumor and normal samples originate from distinct databases (TCGA vs. GTEx and GEO), perfect confounding between biological condition and data source cannot be completely eliminated. This residual batch effect must be taken into account when interpreting the biological validation of our results. Secondly, patient-level splitting was not strictly enforced during cross-validation, which could potentially lead to optimistic performance estimates through data leakage across folds. However, the practical impact of this issue is expected to be minimal, as only 20 patients out of the 6003 in the final cohort contribute more than a single sample to the dataset. Thirdly, the use of bulk TCGA data may overlook intra-tumoral heterogeneity. Fourthly, the small sample size of the GBM cohort available for the H-VAE training step and SHAP interpretation () remains a significant limitation, as it affects the stability of SHAP value estimation. Consequently, the biomarker candidates derived for this cohort must be interpreted with caution. In addition, the strict methylation feature filtering might have excluded relevant CpG sites. Finally, because our framework relies on features derived solely from mathematical and computational models, it can only serve as a hypothesis-generating framework. While tools like SHAP and BNs can rank features and highlight probabilistic dependencies, respectively, they cannot establish biological causality. Therefore, additional experimental validation is required to distinguish candidate biomarkers from truly causal biomarkers and represents a crucial next step toward confirming the biological and clinical relevance of our findings, particularly with regard to the six completely novel GBM biomarker candidates identified in this study.