Heatwave Impacts on Airport Operations Under Future Climate Scenarios: A Climate Risk Assessment ^†

Rising air temperatures are expected to increasingly affect aircraft take-off performance, potentially causing disruption in airport operations. This study develops an airport climate-risk assessment framework combining aircraft performance modeling with the IPCC hazard–exposure–vulnerability approach, using publicly available data. The Take-Off Distance Required (TODR) was simulated for an A320-231 aircraft under varying temperature conditions, and threshold temperatures, above which fully-laden aircraft cannot depart for a given runway length, were derived for six European airports. Climate projections for 2050 were used to forecast frequency of threshold exceedance (hazard), while exposure and vulnerability were estimated through traffic volume and infrastructure-related factors. Results show that mid-century warming will raise the number of days when temperature is so high that the TODR is longer than the available runway length. Airports with shorter runways, frequent departures, and infrastructure constraints exhibit the highest projected risk levels. The findings indicate that increasing temperatures may impose growing operational constraints. The proposed framework provides an accessible preliminary tool for screening climate-related operational risks, supporting early identification of airports that may require targeted adaptation measures.