Epidemiologia, Volume 6, Issue 3 (September 2025) – 9 articles

Background/Objectives: Congenital microcephaly is a clinical manifestation with a heterogeneous etiology, and its epidemiological surveillance relies on the systematic identification of cases and investigation of their underlying causes to inform preventive strategies and improve prognostic assessments. In Latin America, despite the existence of congenital anomaly reporting programs since 1967, the surveillance of microcephaly only gained substantial attention following the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in 2015. Since then, efforts have predominantly concentrated on cases of infectious origin, often at the expense of recognizing endogenous etiologies, particularly those of genetic nature. This review aims to examine the role of genetic alterations in microcephaly pathogenesis and evaluates the limitations of current surveillance systems. Methods: A literature review centered on syndromic and non-syndromic genetic etiologies, alongside an analysis of Latin American surveillance frameworks (ECLAMC, RyVEMCE, ICBDSR, ReLAMC) was performed. Results: The findings reveal improved case detection and increased reported prevalence; however, the proportion of genetically attributed cases has remained stable. No systematic studies were found identifying the most common genetic causes; instead, genetic investigations were limited to isolated cases with a family history. Conclusions: While epidemiological surveillance systems in Latin America have advanced in the reporting of congenital microcephaly cases, substantial gaps remain in case ascertainment and etiological investigation, particularly concerning genetic contributions Full article

Background: he surge in the use of Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Systems (EMS) and Emergency Departments (ED) has become a pressing issue worldwide after the COVID-19 pandemic. To address this challenge, we developed an experimental and innovative care pathway supported by telemedicine. The aim of this study is to describe the activity of the Integrated Medical Center (CMI): a new telemedicine-based care model for patients referring to the Emergency Medical System. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted from January 2022 to December 2022. The CMI was established to manage patients referring to the Emergency Medical System. Results: From January to December 2022, a total of 8680 calls were managed by CMI, with an average of 24 calls per day. 6243 patients (71.9%) were managed without ED access of whom 4884 patients (78.2%) were managed through telemedicine evaluation only, and 1359 (21.8%) with telemedicine evaluation and dispatch of the Home Rapid Response Team (HRRT). The population treated by the HRRT exhibited a higher age. The mean satisfaction score was 9.1/10. Conclusions: Telemedicine evaluation allowed for remote assessments, treatment prescriptions, and teleconsultation for HRRT and was associated with high patient satisfaction. This model could be useful in future pandemics for managing patients with non-urgent illnesses at home, preventing hospital admissions for potentially infectious patients, and thereby reducing in-hospital transmission. Full article

Background/Objectives: Although the Robin Hood Index (RHI) is increasingly used to quantify geographic health inequality and guide resource redistribution, empirical evidence on whether higher physician density reduces RHI-measured inequality remains limited. This study systematically reviews and meta-analyzes RHI-based research to assess the association between physician distribution and health inequalities. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies using the RHI to evaluate health inequalities, without restrictions on country or publication date. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42024496486), we searched PubMed, Scopus, and OpenGrey literature, extracted data on physician density and RHI outcomes, and conducted a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs), ln(OR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and risk of bias was assessed using the Robvis tool. Results: Seventeen studies covering 720 regions and 1.07 billion individuals were included. Three clusters emerged: physician redistribution (10 studies), poverty–mortality associations (six studies), and systematic reviews (one study). Physician redistribution was strongly associated with increased inequality and policy attention (r = 0.73; p = 0.0038). Meta-analysis of eight redistribution studies yielded a pooled OR of 1.24 (95% CI: 0.54–2.86), consistent in sensitivity analysis (OR = 1.26; 95% CI: 0.56–2.89). Poverty–mortality studies also showed a correlation with the number of variables considered (r = 0.59; p = 0.022). Conclusions: A greater physician supply is associated with increased health inequalities, with statistical support but limited certainty. Methodological heterogeneity in RHI-based studies constrains comparability. Standardized methodologies and broader analytic models are needed to inform research and guide health policy. Full article

Background: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) who engage in alcohol and substance abuse face more significant health and social consequences compared to the general population. This study evaluated the prevalence and associated factors of alcohol abuse and substance use among AGYW in Namibia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of programmatic data from AGYW aged 10–24 who participated in the Determined, Resilient, Empowered AIDS-free, Mentored, and Safe (DREAMS) component of the Reducing HIV Vulnerability: Integrated Child and Youth Health (REACH) Project HOPE Namibia from March to December 2024. Data analysis was conducted employing chi-squared tests alongside binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Results: Among the 19,662 participants included in this analysis, 2068 (10.5%) abused alcohol and/or substances in the previous six months. Participants who were HIV-negative or did not know their status (AOR = 1.57, 95% CI (1.15–2.14), and AOR = 1.50, 95% CI (109–2.07), respectively), from outside Windhoek, those who had failed or repeated school in the previous year (COR = 1.77, 95% CI (1.54–2.05)), those not disabled (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI (1.06–1.52)), those who had dropped out of school or had completed their studies, and those with no adult emotional support (AOR = 1.25, 95% CI (1.11–1.40)), were more likely to have abused alcohol and/or substances recently. In contrast, participants who were not depressed were less likely to have recently abused alcohol and substances. Conclusions: The prioritization of strategies to identify AGYW experiencing depression and to provide them with treatment is essential. Moreover, it is important to encourage parents and guardians to provide emotional support to AGYW, as it prevents them from abusing alcohol and substances. Full article

Background/Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical need for accurate predictive models to guide public health interventions and optimize healthcare resource allocation. This study evaluates how the complexity of compartmental infectious disease models influences their forecasting accuracy and utility for pandemic resource planning. Methods: We analyzed a range of compartmental models, including simple susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models and more complex frameworks incorporating asymptomatic carriers and deaths. These models were calibrated and tested using real-world COVID-19 data from the United States to assess their performance in predicting symptomatic and asymptomatic infection counts, peak infection timing, and resource demands. Both adaptive models (updating parameters with real-time data) and non-adaptive models were evaluated. Results: Numerical results show that while more complex models capture detailed disease dynamics, simpler models often yield better forecast accuracy, especially during early pandemic stages or when predicting peak infection periods. Adaptive models provided the most accurate short-term forecasts but required substantial computational resources, making them less practical for long-term planning. Non-adaptive models produced stable long-term forecasts useful for strategic resource allocation, such as hospital bed and ICU planning. Conclusions: Model selection should align with the pandemic stage and decision-making horizon. Simpler models are effective for rapid early-stage interventions, adaptive models excel in short-term operational forecasting, and non-adaptive models remain valuable for long-term resource planning. These findings can inform policymakers on selecting appropriate modeling approaches to improve pandemic response effectiveness. Full article

Background/Objectives: The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well-studied for its health-promoting effects, while the factors influencing adherence in children remain an important research focus. This study examines the sociodemographic, maternal, perinatal, and lifestyle determinants associated with MD adherence among children aged 6–9 years in an effort to identify key predictors and their impact on long-term nutritional habits. Methods: This study recruited 4851 children from diverse Greek rural and urban regions. The mothers of the enrolled children completed relevant questionnaires on their children’s sociodemographics, perinatal outcomes, anthropometric parameters, breastfeeding practices, and physical activity status. The enrolled children completed the Children’s Depression Inventory (CDI) and the State–Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children—State (STAIC-S) form to assess the presence of depression and anxiety symptoms, respectively. The KIDMED score was used to assess the MD compliance of the enrolled children. Results: The outcomes demonstrated that higher maternal education and family economic status gravitated toward increased MD adherence (p = 0.0071, p ˂ 0.0001), while exclusive breastfeeding (p ˂ 0.0001) and higher physical activity levels (p = 0.0101) were strong predictive factors for MD adherence, highlighting the role of early-life interventions in shaping dietary habits. In contrast, cesarean delivery (p = 0.0173) and higher birth weight (p ˂ 0.0001) were linked to lower MD adherence, indicating potential metabolic and behavioral predispositions. Notably, higher MD adherence correlated with lower prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms (p ˂ 0.0001, p = 0.0001), underscoring its potential protective role in mental health. Conclusions: Our findings highlight a complex interplay between early-life and dietary behaviors, while further longitudinal studies are needed to establish causality and optimize evidence-based nutritional strategies and education for childhood health and well-being. Full article

Background/Objectives: Inappropriate use of emergency department (ED) services is widely acknowledged to have a negative impact on health systems as a whole. A minor portion of Frequent User (FU) patients are often responsible for the disproportionate use of ED services. Methods: A retrospective population study was conducted on the attendances of pediatric EDs from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022 at the Roma 1 Local Health Authority in Rome, a territory served by more than 13 EDs. Nested logistic regression analysis was used to investigate patient characteristics in predicting inappropriate use of EDs. Results: In 2022, 35,691 pediatric ED attendances were recorded, with 24,824 patients distributed among 904 PCP/GPs in the six districts. A total of 71.8% of patients had only one attendance in 2022. A total of 3.5% of the patients were FUs, who were responsible for more than 10% of the attendances. However, most of the attendances were not appropriate. FUs, younger age (<2 yo), and more severe clinical presentations were more likely to be associated with appropriate ED attendance. PCPs/GPs and districts do not have a role in determining a higher number of ED attendances. The single patient’s characteristics have a greater influence on this phenomenon. Conclusions: Frequent use of the ED is not associated with inappropriate use among children, mainly due to the characteristics and needs of specific patients. However, parents’ education for a more rational use of health system resources and the provision of local solutions to children’s health needs may allow for a more appropriate use of health service resources. Full article

Background/Objectives: Mental health conditions represent a growing global health concern, disproportionately impacting populations in low- and middle-income countries like Pakistan. Limited epidemiological data, coupled with recent socioeconomic and environmental disruptions, has intensified the need for current insights into psychological burden and coping capacities in the Pakistani population. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional survey was conducted from January to May 2023 among 400 community-dwelling adults attending outpatient departments in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. A structured 75-item questionnaire incorporating validated tools (PHQ-9, GAD-7, WHO-5, CSES, and SRQ-20) was used to assess depression, anxiety, well-being, coping self-efficacy, and mental distress. Descriptive statistics, χ² and Fisher’s exact tests, and Spearman’s rank correlation (r_s) analyses were performed using IBM SPSS 22.0. Results: Most respondents were male (73.0%), aged 25–34 (60.0%), and urban-dwelling (80.0%). Clinically relevant depression and anxiety were observed in 57.0% and 19.5% of participants, respectively; 38.0% reported mental distress. Conversely, 76.5% demonstrated fair-to-good coping efficacy and 51.0% had high well-being scores. Younger age (≤34 years), higher income, urban residence, and male gender were associated with significantly better mental health outcomes. Strong positive correlation was found between PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scores (r_s = 0.672), and moderate negative correlations were found between GAD-7 and WHO-5 (r_s = −0.496), and PHQ-9 and WHO-5 (r_s = −0.310). Conclusions: Our findings highlight the significant psychological burden among urban Pakistani adults, alongside promising levels of resilience and coping self-efficacy. These results emphasize the urgent need for early, culturally adapted mental health screening and intervention programs in outpatient settings. Integrating such strategies into primary care, particularly for vulnerable subgroups like women, older adults, and those with lower income could facilitate timely diagnosis, improve outcomes, and reduce stigma surrounding mental health. Full article

Aim. This study aimed to assess the SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in the Republic of Armenia (RA) by late 2022. Materials and Methods. A randomized study was conducted from 28 November to 2 December (2022) by the Saint Petersburg Pasteur Institute (Russia) in collaboration with the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Armenia). This study was approved by the ethics committees at both organizations. A volunteer cohort (N = 2974) was formed and grouped by participant age, region, or activity. Antibodies (Abs) to viral nucleocapsid antigen (Nc) and receptor-binding domain (RBD) in plasma were determined by ELISA. The statistical significance of differences was calculated using a p < 0.05 threshold, unless noted. Results. At the end of 2022, estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (Nc and/or RBD Abs) among the Armenian population was 99% (95%CI: 98.5–99.3). It was evenly distributed throughout the cohort without any significant differences by age, region, or activity. Volunteers with low (32–124 BAU/mL) or medium (125–332 BAU/mL) anti-Nc Ab levels prevailed: 32.4% (95%CI: 30.7–34.1) and 25.5% (95% CI: 24.0–27.1), respectively. Regarding anti-RBD Abs, maximum levels (>450 BAU/mL) were detected in 40% of children. The share of individuals with high anti-RBD Abs levels increased with age, reaching 65% among those aged 70⁺ years. The important contribution to the formation of herd immunity to coronavirus infection was made by vaccination in the preceding period (1 April 2021 to 1 May 2022). The contribution from individuals with post-vaccination immunity was estimated to be above 80%. Hybrid immunity, formed after vaccination of those who had earlier experienced COVID-19, was characterized by greater effectiveness than post-vaccination immunity alone. Conclusions. Within the context of mass prophylactic vaccination, effective herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 was formed, which helped to stop epidemic spread in the Republic. Full article