A Spatial Multi-Criteria Framework to Define Priorities in Wildfire Management Programs
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Collection
2.3. Analysis
2.3.1. Variable Selection and Spatial Framework
2.3.2. Population Estimates for 2021
2.3.3. Expert Consultation and Analytic Hierarchy Process
3. Results
3.1. Municipality Scale Analysis
3.2. National-Scale Analysis
Relationship Between Fire Recurrence and Implementation Priority Classes
4. Discussion
4.1. Territorial Patterns and Intra-Municipal Variability
4.2. Scale Effects and Resource Allocation
4.3. Program-Specific Priorities and Unexpected Patterns
4.4. Methodological Considerations and Limitations
4.5. Policy and Operational Implications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Municipalities | Area (km2) | Mean Slope (°) | Mean Altitude (m) | % Agriculture | % Forest and Shrubland | % High and Very High Hazard | # Built-up Areas (Type 1 and Type 2 > 0.2 ha) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua (A) | 251.17 | 9.8 | 254.2 | 8.28 | 86.46 | 50.60 | 241 |
| Tondela (B) | 371.21 | 8.7 | 401.3 | 20.88 | 72.98 | 63.21 | 697 |
| Oliveira do Hospital (C) | 234.51 | 9.4 | 413.5 | 23.68 | 69.90 | 86.53 | 411 |
| Figueiró dos Vinhos (D) | 173.44 | 12.2 | 446.1 | 8.52 | 87.77 | 90.05 | 312 |
| Alvaiázere (E) | 160.47 | 7.5 | 271.2 | 25.53 | 70.02 | 41.12 | 557 |
| Alcoutim (H) | 575.36 | 6.5 | 195.1 | 14.63 | 78.18 | 9.34 | 115 |
| Monchique (G) | 395.30 | 13.5 | 287.9 | 6.07 | 91.96 | 90.75 | 350 |
| São Brás de Alportel (F) | 153.36 | 9.3 | 336.6 | 16.16 | 77.56 | 58.04 | 245 |
| Municipalities | Resident Population 2011 (n) | Resident Population 2021 (n) | Rate of Change in Population (%) | Residential Buildings 2011 (n) | Buildings 2021 (n) | Rate of Change in Buildings (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua (A) | 9607 | 8965 | −6.7 | 5542 | 5657 | 2.1 |
| Tondela (B) | 28,946 | 25,914 | −10.5 | 16,328 | 16,059 | −1.6 |
| Oliveira do Hospital (C) | 20,885 | 19,416 | −6.9 | 11,726 | 11,777 | 0.4 |
| Figueiró dos Vinhos (D) | 6169 | 5281 | −14.4 | 4560 | 4555 | −0.1 |
| Alvaiázere (E) | 7287 | 6239 | −14.4 | 5472 | 5442 | −0.5 |
| Alcoutim (H) | 2917 | 2523 | −13.5 | 3461 | 3535 | +2.1 |
| Monchique (G) | 6045 | 5452 | −9.6 | 4201 | 4225 | +0.6 |
| São Brás de Alportel (F) | 10,662 | 11,248 | +5.5 | 4958 | 5112 | +3.1 |
| Variable | Protection of People and Assets Programs (AHP Weights) | Fuel Management Programs (AHP Weights) |
|---|---|---|
| % Critical Area | 0.368 | 0.319 |
| % Forest and Shrubland | 0.206 | 0.319 |
| Population Density | 0.206 | 0.184 |
| Number of Times Burned | 0.109 | 0.110 |
| Slope > 20° | 0.109 | 0.69 |
| Municipality | Program | No.Villages | Min_Score | Max_Score | Mean_Score | SD_Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoutim | SP | 115 | 0 | 0.523 | 0.125 | 0.098 |
| FM | 0.533 | 0.149 | 0.112 | |||
| Alvaiázere | SP | 557 | 0.732 | 0.128 | 0.127 | |
| FM | 0.729 | 0.141 | 0.133 | |||
| Figueiró dos Vinhos | SP | 312 | 0.720 | 0.365 | 0.193 | |
| FM | 0.766 | 0.368 | 0.193 | |||
| Monchique | SP | 350 | 0.747 | 0.433 | 0.186 | |
| FM | 0.771 | 0.448 | 0.184 | |||
| Mortágua | SP | 241 | 0.764 | 0.154 | 0.128 | |
| FM | 0.783 | 0.193 | 0.133 | |||
| Oliveira do Hospital | SP | 411 | 0.807 | 0.366 | 0.128 | |
| FM | 0.850 | 0.338 | 0.131 | |||
| São Brás de Alportel | SP | 245 | 0.775 | 0.176 | 0.166 | |
| FM | 0.791 | 0.192 | 0.183 | |||
| Tondela | SP | 697 | 0.659 | 0.187 | 0.150 | |
| FM | 0.688 | 0.195 | 0.152 |
| Municipality | No. of Villages | % Class Match | % Class Change | Most Comum Class | Most Frequent Class Transition (SP–FM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcoutim | 115 | 79 | 21 | 3 × 3 | 4–3 |
| Alvaiázere | 557 | 90 | 10 | 2 × 2 | 3–2 |
| Figueiró dos Vinhos | 312 | 87 | 13 | 4 × 4 | 4–3 |
| Monchique | 350 | 87 | 13 | ||
| Mortágua | 241 | 84 | 16 | 2 × 2 | 3–2 |
| Oliveira do Hospital | 411 | 90 | 10 | 3 × 3 | |
| São Brás de Alportel | 245 | 81 | 19 | 2 × 2 | |
| Tondela | 697 | 88 | 12 |
| SP Program | FM Program | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priority Class | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Median |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 2.2 | 2 | 6 | 2.2 | 2 |
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Share and Cite
Gonçalves, A.; Pinto, D.M.; Oliveira, S.; Zêzere, J.L. A Spatial Multi-Criteria Framework to Define Priorities in Wildfire Management Programs. Fire 2026, 9, 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9020090
Gonçalves A, Pinto DM, Oliveira S, Zêzere JL. A Spatial Multi-Criteria Framework to Define Priorities in Wildfire Management Programs. Fire. 2026; 9(2):90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9020090
Chicago/Turabian StyleGonçalves, Ana, Diogo M. Pinto, Sandra Oliveira, and José Luís Zêzere. 2026. "A Spatial Multi-Criteria Framework to Define Priorities in Wildfire Management Programs" Fire 9, no. 2: 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9020090
APA StyleGonçalves, A., Pinto, D. M., Oliveira, S., & Zêzere, J. L. (2026). A Spatial Multi-Criteria Framework to Define Priorities in Wildfire Management Programs. Fire, 9(2), 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire9020090

