3.2. Multifractal Analysis with Differents
s in the proposed model is the size of the overlapping window. The traditional model is sensitive to the change of s. Therefore, we explore the sensitivity of the proposed modified model to the window size s.
Figure 9,
Figure 10,
Figure 11,
Figure 12,
Figure 13,
Figure 14,
Figure 15,
Figure 16 and
Figure 17 exhibit the fitting performance, the generalized Hurst exponent and the scaling exponent. In general, the distribution of the generalized Hurst exponent computed through the MF-LSSVM-DFA model is more compact than that calculated by the MF-DFA model. The Hurst exponents obtained from the MF-LSSVM-DFA model are around the analytic values.
Figure 9 show the fitting conditions in the two models when
, respectively.
Figure 10 and
Figure 11 present the generalized Hurst exponents and the scaling exponents when the range of
s is small enough. We can find that when
q is less than 0,
is far from the analytic solution and
is distributed around the analytic solution, especially in
Figure 10a. In
Figure 10b, the scaling exponent
is almost completely consistent with the analytic value. Compared to
, the difference between
and the analytic value is large, which is over 10. When
s grows, the difference between
and the analytic solution becomes a little large. However, compared to
Figure 10b, although
becomes closer to the analytic value and becomes smaller, it still performs worse than
. Therefore, when the segment size
s is small, the MF-LSSVM-DFA model is excellent.
According to [
40,
41], in the traditional MF-DFA model, when the overlapping window size
s is smaller than
, it implies that the maximum
s ought to be smaller than
. Therefore, we explore the performance of the MF-LSSVM model when the segment size
s is near and over the maximum value. The length of the multiplicative cascade sequence we use for numerical experiments is
. Therefore, we select an interval [300, 400], in which the maximum value is a little less than
, an interval [500, 600], in which the minimum value is a little greater than
and an interval [700, 800], for which the minimum value is far larger than
.
When the maximum
s is slightly less than
, that is, the range of
s is a little smaller than the boundary, and the performance of the polynomial fitting is similar to before. The performance of LSSVM is quite different. Observing
Figure 12, the segmentation of the LSSVM fit is more obvious. In
Figure 12, we can see that the trends of the LSSVM fit are similar. On the opposite, in the interval [1500, 2000], when
s equals 300 and 350, the opening is oriented upward. When
s is 400, the opening is facing downward which is completely opposite to that when
s is 300 and 350. Therefore, the LSSVM fit is more suitable for the nonlinear and nonstationary time series.
From
Figure 13a,b, when
,
and
are tightly distributed around the analytic value in both models. However, the generalized Hurst exponent and the scaling exponent calculated by MF-LSSVM-DFA are almost identical to the resolved values. Combining
Figure 4,
Figure 10,
Figure 11 and
Figure 15, we find that when the range of
s is in the traditional specified range interval, the performances of both the MF-DFA model and the MF-LSSVM-DFA model are gratifying, and the MF-LSSVM-model is more outstanding.
Subsequently, we explore the performances of the MF-LSSVM-DFA model when the range outstrips the limit.
Figure 14 and
Figure 16 present the fitting in the two models when
and when
, respectively. Compared with the traditional MF-DFA model, the fitting trend is similar when
s alters. The opening directions of the fitting in the similar interval are the opposite in MF-DFA when
s changes.
Figure 15 and
Figure 17 exhibit the corresponding generalized Hurst exponents and the scaling exponents. In both
Figure 15 and
Figure 17, when the minimum
s is greater than
, the generalized Hurst exponent calculated by the proposed model is still closer to the analytic solution than that computed by the conventional MF-DFA, and so is the scaling exponent. In addition, we find that the scaling exponent is less sensitive to
s than the generalized Hurst exponent. Especially when
q is smaller than 0,
alters from above the analytic solution to below the analytic solution and the difference between
and the solution in
Figure 15 is larger than that in
Figure 17. Therefore, compared to the MF-DFA model, the proposed MF-LSSVM-DFA model is relatively less affected by
s.
In addition, we calculate the difference between
and the analytic value, and between
and the analytic value for different ranges of
s in
Table 1 and
Table 2, respectively. We calculate the average value of
in each range. The results show that when the maximum
s is smaller than
, the average values of
are almost around 0.1. When
, the average value increases and surprisingly, the average value varies a little. When the minimum
s becomes far larger than
,
becomes large and the average value when
is far bigger than that when
s in the former ranges. Comparing to
Table 1, we find that the average value of
is greater than that of
when the range of
s is the same. In addition, all the mean values of
are under 1. However, when the minimum
s is over
, the mean value becomes larger and is over 1, indicating that there is a significant discrepancy between the calculated Hurst exponent and the analytic value. Therefore, our proposed model has a higher accuracy fit.
From
Table 1 and
Table 2, we find that when
s belongs to [500, 600],
is less than all the
, denoting that even when the overlapping window size
s is over
, our proposed model still surpass the traditional MF-DFA model. Even when
s belongs to [700, 800],
is smaller than
when
s belongs to [50, 70]. At the same time, we explore whether the performance of the scaling exponent is consistent with the generalized Hurst exponent. We calculate the difference between the scaling exponent and the theoretic value.
represents the absolute value of the difference calculated in MF-DFA, and
shows the absolute value of the difference computed in MF-LSSVM-DFA. Therefore, we calculate the scaling exponent
when
s belongs to [500, 600] and [700, 800], respectively. Both the minimum values of the two selected ranges of
s are over
the length of the multiplicative cascade time series. In addition, we compute
of the first five intervals of MF-DFA. The specific calculated results are shown in
Table 3 and
Table 4.
Figure 18 presents the distribution of the scaling exponents. From
Figure 18a, we find that when
q is the same, the scaling exponent obtained by MF-LSSVM-DFA when
s is in [500, 600] is almost smaller than that calculated by MF-DFA, regardless of the interval of
s. When the interval of
s becomes larger where the minimum
s is far larger than
,
and is still closer to the analytic value than
when
s belongs to [50, 70] and [300, 400]. Therefore, our proposed model has smaller restrictions on the window size
s.
To highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare it with existing improved MF-DFA methods. Yang et al. [
42] addressed the potential presence of negative values in the original MF-DFA model by introducing sign retention to enhance performance, resulting in the sign retention model MF-S-DFA. Additionally, Wang et al. [
43] proposed the MF-LF-DFA algorithm, which improves the performance of MF-DFA by reasonably setting the fitting order for different local intervals based on the fluctuation characteristics of the sequence. We calculate the Hurst values corresponding to different ranges of
s. Let
and
denote the absolute differences between the results computed using MF-S-DFA and LF-MF-DFA methods and the analytical values, respectively. The final results are presented in
Table 5. Comparing the averages of
and
in each range of
s with those in
Table 2, we find that the proposed method achieves better performance compared to the two existing improved MF-DFA methods.
Similarly, we calculate the variation in the differences between the scaling exponents of the two improved methods and the theoretical values across different ranges of
s. Let
and
represent the absolute differences between the scaling exponents computed using MF-S-DFA and LF-MF-DFA methods and the theoretical values, respectively. We compare the
values for
s in the range [700, 800] with the
and
values computed for three different intervals, as presented in
Table 6. From the results, we can see that our method is superior to improving MF-DFA.