Predicting Wine Quality Under Changing Climate: An Integrated Approach Combining Machine Learning, Statistical Analysis, and Systems Thinking

Climate change poses significant challenges for viticulture, particularly in regions known for producing high-quality wines. Wine quality results from a complex interaction between climatic factors, regional characteristics, and viticultural practices. Methods: This study integrates statistical analysis, machine learning (ML) algorithms, and systems thinking to assess the extent to which wine quality can be predicted using monthly weather data and regional classification. The dataset includes average wine scores, monthly temperatures and precipitation, and categorical region data for Slovenia between 2011 and 2021. Predictive models tested include Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and linear regression. In addition, Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were constructed to explore feedback mechanisms and systemic dynamics. Results: The Random Forest model showed the highest prediction accuracy (R² = 0.779). Regional classification emerged as the most influential variable, followed by temperatures in September and April. Precipitation did not have a statistically significant effect on wine ratings. CLD models revealed time delays in the effects of adaptation measures and highlighted the role of perceptual lags in growers’ responses to climate signals. Conclusions: The combined use of ML, statistical methods, and CLDs enhances understanding of how climate variability influences wine quality. This integrated approach offers practical insights for winegrowers, policymakers, and regional planners aiming to develop climate-resilient viticultural strategies. Future research should include phenological phase modeling and dynamic simulation to further improve predictive accuracy and system-level understanding.