Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Availibility
2.3. Model Development
2.4. Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Analysis
2.4.1. Lake Enriquillo-Model
2.4.2. Lake Azuei-Model
3.1. Water Budget Assessment
3.1.1. Lake Enriquillo
- This period was characterized by a shrinkage pattern. No storm activities occurred close to the region, and the evaporation rate surpassed inflow to the lake from rainfall and surface runoff (with direct rainfall volume being higher than runoff). Therefore, the lake’s water budget was negative, and the lake was shrinking. For this period, the average direct rainfall volume rate was 0.14 km3/yr, the runoff was 0.07 km3/yr, and evaporation was 0.28 km3/yr.
- In 1979, Storm Claudette and Hurricane David hit the area close to the lakes within a few months, causing the lake to grow due to high surface runoff volume. Later, flow brought by the Cristobal Canal from the neighboring watershed (Lake Rincon) added to the expansion, causing the lake level to rise by 4 m in total (which, otherwise, would have been 2.5 m). The amount of runoff caused by storms in 1979 was estimated to be 0.39 km3, while the cumulative volume of water from the Cristobal Canal was 0.55 km3 between 1980 and 1981. The average evaporation volume removed from the lake for this period was 0.27 km3/yr.
- The shrinkage pattern observed for this period was due to the absence of storm activity and inter-basin water transfer. Therefore, the water budget of the lake system was dominated by evaporation (~0.29 km3/yr), causing it to shrink. Based on water budget estimations, the volume gathered by direct rainfall over the lake (~0.15 km3/yr) was higher than the volume received from surface runoff (~0.07 km3/yr).Differences between simulations and observations (1987–1996) could be due to assumptions taken and simplifications made during the modeling phase, such as the inclusion of constant evaporation and the choice of storm events. In 1988 and 1993, two storm incidents (Chris and Cindy) were reported with less than 87 mm of monthly rain, which may have slightly offset the graphs. Due to the lack of detailed data, the decision was made to carry on with the initial constraint that only storms occurring in months with a rainfall rate of more than 87 mm/month (within 80 km striking distance)  should be considered for the simulations.
- The main event impacting the lake was Hurricane George, which caused a 1.3 m rise in LE’s surface level. In 1998, the runoff volume (~0.31 km3) was twice that of direct rainfall over the lake (~0.15 km3). In 1999, the lake grew mainly due to a high rainfall rate (~0.21 km3) and partially from groundwater return flow (0.05 km3).
- In the absence of storm activity and inter-basin flow, the lake shrank. The primary inflows were coming from direct rainfall (~0.13 km3/yr) and runoff (~0.07 km3/yr), which was considerably less than the evaporation rate (~0.24 km3/yr). Comparison of observations and simulations showed an overestimation of volume, which could be attributed to inaccurate evaporation rates for these years.
- In late 2005, Storm Alpha caused the lake to grow again (~1.6 m). The growth continued in 2006 due to direct rainfall, runoff, groundwater contribution, and incoming seepage from Azuei. The growth of the lake continued until mid-2007 (~1 m level rise), which might be a sign of the Cristobal Canal’s contribution (transferring Lake Rincon’s water) to LE’s water budget. However, this factor was not included in the simulations due to unreliable and more detailed information. The average volume of the water budget contributors was as follows: 0.24 km3/yr due to evaporation, 0.18 km3/yr added by direct rainfall, 0.22 km3/yr accumulated runoff, 0.03 km3/yr via groundwater contribution, and 0.04 km3/yr seepage coming from LA.
- During this period, four storms (Noel, 2007; Fay, 2008; Gustav, 2008; and Isaac, 2012) passed in the vicinity of the LE watershed, with precipitation higher than 100 mm/month and uncontrolled water from the Cristobal Canal flowing towards LE, causing it to rise seven more meters.In December 2007, Storm Noel passed close to the region, introducing water to LE from direct rainfall and runoff. In late 2007 and early 2008, the Trujillo Dike failed due to the Yaque del Sur flood, at which time most of the river flow began to drain indirectly into LE, first through the Trujillo Canal into Lake Rincon and then through the Cristobal Canal into LE. In 2008, Storms Fay and Gustav struck the lake in December, adding to its volume. In April 2011, Trujillo Dike was repaired; however, water leakage from the dyke did not entirely stop. In 2012, another storm passed through, and LE expanded due to the extra volume originating from rainfall and runoff. These additions, however, did not account for all the LE growth, pointing to the existence of the continued extra flows in the Cristobal Canal. Without Cristobal’s contributions, the lake might have risen by only 2.5 m between 2007 and 2013.Based on water budget estimations, 0.24 km3/yr of added volume to the lake came from the Cristobal Canal’s discharge. The contributions of other factors were 0.37 km3/yr due to evaporation, 0.23 km3/yr as direct rainfall, 0.19 km3/yr accumulated runoff, and 0.03 km3/yr via groundwater contributions.The noticeable deviation between simulated and actual time-series for 2012–2014 was attributed to the assumption of a constant value for evaporation and discharge.
- No external force was exerted on the lake’s water budget. Therefore, added precipitation and runoff could not compensate for the water lost through evaporation. As a result, LE showed a shrinkage pattern. For this period, evaporation, direct rainfall, and runoff rates were 0.42, 0.18, and 0.05 km3/yr, respectively. The high rate of evaporation during this period was due to the extent of the lake’s surface.
3.1.2. Lake Azuei
- During this period, LA exhibited a stable behavior, and the amount of inflow and outflow to/from the lake was balanced. Average volumes estimated in this period were: 0.16 km3/yr due to evaporation, 0.08 km3/yr as direct rainfall, 0.07 km3/yr from runoff, 0.02 km3/yr via groundwater return flow, and 0.01 km3/yr as outgoing seepage from Azuei.
- During this short period, LA expanded slightly (~20 cm level rise) in response to LE’s level rising above –37 m MSL, which lasted for only a few years. For this period, groundwater return flow was approximately 0.03 km3/yr, while outgoing seepage was estimated to be close to zero, thus explaining the lake’s growth. Other elements of the water budget were: evaporation (~0.16 km3/yr), direct rainfall (~0.07 km3/yr), and runoff (~0.06 km3/yr).
- Soon after the expansion in 1982–1984, LA stabilized and attained its previous equilibrium, which was owed to removing LE’s influence. This period lasted for eight years, during which direct precipitation, runoff, groundwater return flow, and seepage values from Azuei were the same as the 1972–1982 period.
- A 5% expansion in the lake’s volume was observed, causing it to rise by 79 cm. This increase correlated with inter-basin water transfer without a significant precipitation event or LE’s influence. Based on water budget calculations, a total of 0.06 km3 had been added to the lake. Satellite imagery showed a possible water volume transfer from the Desaguas Canal to LA for 12 months during 1993 and 1996. To match the growth of LA, the Desaguas Canal would have had to supply 2.9 m3/s. The validity of this assumption would have to be investigated further.
- For these years, LA was experiencing stability. Based on satellite imagery, water budget estimations showed a discharge of 338 lit/s for 28 months. The values of water budget constituents were 0.16, 0.09, 0.08, 0.006, 0.02, and 0.02 km3/yr for evaporation, direct rainfall, runoff, Desaguas discharge, groundwater return flow, and outgoing seepage.
- Similar to LE observations, significant differences between observed and model simulations existed. These differences were attributed to the assumption of constant evaporation rate because those years coincided with a dry period. Satellite imagery showed 31 months of the Desaguas Canal flow (~0.005 km3/yr).
- LA’s surface-level rose by approximately 3.7 m in seven years. This synchronous expansion was a result of LE’s rapid surface level rise influencing Azuei’s system. Desaguas Canal flow continued to contribute to LA’s water budget for 29 months (~0.004 km3/yr). The water budget calculations showed an outgoing seepage value of close to zero from Azuei’s system. The calculation of other factors yielded: 0.18, 0.10, 0.08, and 0.05 km3/yr for evaporation, direct rainfall, runoff, and groundwater return flow, respectively. The higher rate of evaporation and direct rainfall was due to the significant expansion of the lake’s surface area. The discrepancies between simulations and observations for the years after 2009 are due to the inaccurate prediction of the equilibrium modifier, which changed during the rising leg of the time series. Assessments using the LA model showed that the lake would never have expanded if it were not for the influence of LE on its system.
- Synchronous with LE, LA was shrinking due to the gradual removal of LE’s impact on its dynamic. As mentioned before, the difference between simulations and observations was because of the simplifications applied to estimate the equilibrium modifier.
3.2. Lake Dynamics Description
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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|Validation||Volume Change||0.63||8.92 × 10−5||0.00262||0.002||12%||83%||5.54|
|Volume||0.87||5.52 × 10−5||0.00206||0.002||0.01%||83%||2.51|
|Parameter||Lake Enriquillo||Lake Azuei|
|(km3/yr) *||Lake volume change time series [–0.39, +0.75] **||Lake volume change time series [–0.02, +0.1]|
|(km2) *||Lake surface area time series [168.1, 349.6]||Lake surface area time series [113.7, 138.1]|
|(mm/yr)||Jimani station annual records [306, 1084]||Jimani station annual records [306, 1084]|
|(mm/yr)||not applicable||733 or f (LE’s elev)|
|***||[0, 0.6]||[0, 0.6]|
|0 or 1||[0, 1]|
|*** (m3/s) *||[0, 25]||No range is available|
|(mm/yr)||term from LA’s water budget when it is negative||not applicable|
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Moknatian, M.; Piasecki, M. Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola. Hydrology 2021, 8, 148. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8040148
Moknatian M, Piasecki M. Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola. Hydrology. 2021; 8(4):148. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8040148Chicago/Turabian Style
Moknatian, Mahrokh, and Michael Piasecki. 2021. "Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola" Hydrology 8, no. 4: 148. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8040148