Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Simulation Scenarios
- A2 climate change scenario and no change in North Atlantic cyclones;
- A2 climate change scenario and change in North Atlantic cyclones;
- B2 climate change scenario and no change in North Atlantic cyclones;
- B2 climate change scenario and change in North Atlantic cyclones.
- B2 scenario without a change in cyclones;
- B2 scenario and +50% increase in cyclone frequency;
- B2 scenario and +20% increase in cyclone frequency;
- B2 scenario and −50% decrease in cyclone frequency;
- B2 scenario and −20% decrease in cyclone frequency;
- A2 scenario without change in cyclones;
- A2 scenario and +50% increase in cyclone frequency;
- A2 scenario and +20% increase in cyclone frequency;
- A2 scenario and −50% decrease in cyclone frequency;
- A2 scenario and −20% decrease in cyclone frequency;
- No climate change in future.
2.2. Model Setup
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Future Outlook
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Simulation Scenarios | Lake Enriquillo | Lake Azuei | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
IPCC SRES | Change in TC Frequency | 2050 | 2100 | 2050 | 2100 |
None | None | 1.614 * [0.6 4.0] ** | 1.339 [0.5 3.4] | 1.807 [1.6 2.3] | 1.592 [1.5 2.4] |
B2 | None | 1.120 [0.5 2.9] | 0.788 [0.3 1.9] | 1.568 [1.5 2.0] | 1.288 [1.3 1.4] |
B2 | +50% | 1.203 [0.5 2.8] | 0.980 [0.3 2.4] | 1.581 [1.5 2.0] | 1.294 [1.3 1.7] |
B2 | +20% | 1.150 [0.4 2.8] | 0.845 [0.3 2.3] | 1.569 [1.4 2.0] | 1.289 [1.3 1.6] |
B2 | −20% | 1.095 [0.5 2.9] | 0.732 [0.3 1.9] | 1.564 [1.5 2.0] | 1.287 [1.3 1.4] |
B2 | −50% | 1.072 [0.4 2.1] | 0.651 [0.3 2.1] | 1.560 [1.5 1.9] | 1.286 [1.3 1.3] |
A2 | None | 0.970 [0.4 2.9] | 0.607 [0.2 1.8] | 1.536 [1.4 2.0] | 1.125 [1.1 1.2] |
A2 | +50% | 1.037 [0.3 2.3] | 0.757 [0.2 2.1] | 1.543 [1.4 1.9] | 1.120 [1.1 1.2] |
A2 | +20% | 1.011 [0.3 2.4] | 0.683 [0.2 1.7] | 1.543 [1.4 1.9] | 1.119 [1.1 1.2] |
A2 | −20% | 0.968 [0.3 2.4] | 0.581 [0.2 1.7] | 1.539 [1.4 1.9] | 1.119 [1.1 1.2] |
A2 | −50% | 0.933 [0.3 2.4] | 0.503 [0.2 1.4] | 1.536 [1.4 1.9] | 1.118 [1.1 1.2] |
Lake Enriquillo | Lake Azuei | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios | Average | Min | Max | Average | Min | Max | |
2050 | No Climate Change | −39.20 ↓ | −46.19 ↓ | −30.95 ↑ | 21.51 ↓ | 19.64 ↓ | 25.08 ↑ |
IPCC B2 SRES | −39.42 ↓ | −49.06 ↓ | −34.25 ↓ | 19.55 ↓ | 18.50 ↓ | 22.77 ↓ | |
IPCC A2 SRES | −39.56 ↓ | −49.88 ↓ | −34.51 ↓ | 19.30 ↓ | 18.43 ↓ | 23.08 ↓ | |
2100 | No Climate Change | −40.60 ↓ | −46.82 ↓ | −32.74 ↑ | 19.75 ↓ | 18.80 ↓ | 25.53 ↑ |
IPCC B2 SRES | −40.88 ↓ | −50.45 ↓ | −36.07 ↓ | 17.00 ↓ | 16.85 ↓ | 20.61 ↓ | |
IPCC A2 SRES | −41.88 ↓ | −51.91 ↓ | −37.02 ↓ | 15.30 ↓ | 15.16 ↓ | 16.62 ↓ |
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Moknatian, M.; Piasecki, M. Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes. Hydrology 2021, 8, 107. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030107
Moknatian M, Piasecki M. Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes. Hydrology. 2021; 8(3):107. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030107
Chicago/Turabian StyleMoknatian, Mahrokh, and Michael Piasecki. 2021. "Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo: A Future Outlook for Two of the Caribbean Basin’s Largest Lakes" Hydrology 8, no. 3: 107. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030107