Research on Regional Variations in Potato Price Fluctuations and Inter-Regional Transmission Mechanisms in China

Potatoes, possessing the characteristics of being suitable for food crop, vegetable, and fodder use, have become an important supplementary product for ensuring food security and vegetable supply. Their price fluctuations play a significant role in regulating production and consumption. Against the backdrop of establishing a unified national market, studying potato price fluctuations from a spatial perspective is crucial for scientifically and systematically understanding the patterns of China’s potato market. This study employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Spatial autocorrelation and Vector Autoregression models to analyse spatial variations and inter-regional transmission mechanisms in China’s potato price fluctuations, utilising wholesale market price data from January 2014 to December 2024 across diverse regions. Findings indicate distinct spatial patterns in potato price dynamics with significant inter-regional interactions. The Northern Crop Region exhibits predominantly short-term, high-frequency fluctuations, whereas the Central Crop Region, Southern Crop Region, and Southwestern Crop Region are characterized by long-term, low-frequency fluctuations. Potato prices in China exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, and potato price fluctuations at both national and regional levels are primarily influenced negatively by those in other regions. The degree of interactive influence between potato prices across regions exhibits considerable variation, with the Central China crop region holding a certain degree of dominance in the national market. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening tiered and regional monitoring and analysis of potato prices, standardizing inter-regional transmission pathways for potato prices, and guiding the formation of a complementary regional structure for potato production.