Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- (1)
- What is the dynamic evolution of the structure of the global ATN community?
- (2)
- Which changes characterize the stability of the global ATN and how do changes in key nodes affect the overall stability of the network?
- (3)
- Can the stability of major importing countries be guaranteed at present? How great is the potential threat to global food supply security from disruptions in major trade relations?
2. Method and Materials
2.1. Methodology
2.1.1. Regional Characteristics of Global Agricultural Trade Networks
Community division and structural characteristics
- Start by considering each node in the trade network as an independent community.
- Divide the community and into a new community and calculate the variation of the function value .
- Then, select the largest , and divide the corresponding two communities into a new one.
- Repeat steps (i) and (ii) until the community structure cannot be further divided.
Level of trade satisfaction
2.1.2. The Stability of the Global Agricultural Trade Network
Node stability
Network stability
2.2. Data Sources
3. Results
3.1. Characteristics of Global Agricultural Trade Network Communities from 1986 to 2018
3.1.1. Change of Community Structure
- (1)
- Period of the dominance of the American–Asian community (1986–1997)
- (2)
- Period of the prompt rise of the European–African community (1997–2008)
- (3)
- Phase of gradual formation of tri-pillar communities (2008–2018)
- (4)
- The development of a multipolar community with a more complex structure (2018 to present)
3.1.2. The Satisfaction of Trade in Major Communities
3.2. Stability of Agricultural Product Trade Network
3.2.1. Node Stability Changes
3.2.2. Stability of Agricultural Trade Networks in Major Countries
3.3. Changes in Trade Stability by Different Communities
4. Discussion and Policy Implications
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Lambin, E.F.; Meyfroidt, P. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2011, 108, 3465–3472. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Griffin, K. Economic globalization and institutions of global governance. Dev. Change 2003, 34, 789–808. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Anderson, K. Globalization’s effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 2010, 365, 3007–3021. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- MacDonald, G.K.; Brauman, K.A.; Sun, S.; Carlson, K.M.; Cassidy, E.S.; Gerber, J.S.; West, P.C. Rethinking agricultural trade relationships in an era of globalization. BioScience 2015, 65, 275–289. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, G.; Liu, X.; Cheng, S. Curb China’s rising food wastage. Nature 2013, 498, 170. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Tu, C.; Suweis, S.; D’Odorico, P. Impact of globalization on the resilience and sustainability of natural resources. Nat. Sustain. 2019, 2, 283–289. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Seekell, D.; D’Odorico, P.; Macdonald, G.K. Food, trade, and the environment. Environ. Res. Lett. 2018, 13, 100201. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- World Bank. World Development Indicators. 2021. Available online: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx (accessed on 31 December 2021).
- FAO. FAOSTAT Online Database. 2022. Available online: http://faostat.fao.org/data (accessed on 31 December 2021).
- Porkka, M.; Kummu, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: A historical analysis of global food availability. PloS ONE 2013, 8, e82714. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Behnassi, M.; El Haiba, M. Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security. Nat. Hum. Behav. 2022, 6, 754–755. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Adamchick, J.; Perez, A.M. Choosing awareness over fear: Risk analysis and free trade support global food security. Glob. Food Secur. 2020, 26, 100445. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shutters, S.T.; Muneepeerakul, R. Agricultural trade networks and patterns of economic development. PLoS ONE 2012, 7, e39756. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- D’Amour, C.B.; Anderson, W. International trade and the stability of food supplies in the Global South. Environ. Res. Lett. 2020, 15, 074005. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Garlaschelli, D.; Loffredo, M.I. Generalized bose-fermi statistics and structural correlations in weighted networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2009, 102, 038701. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Ji, Q.; Zhang, H.Y.; Fan, Y. Identification of global oil trade patterns: An empirical research based on complex network theory. Energy Convers. Manag. 2014, 85, 856–865. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, H.Y.; Ji, Q.; Fan, Y. Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade. Energy Policy 2014, 73, 312–322. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Geng, J.B.; Ji, Q.; Fan, Y. A dynamic analysis on global natural gas trade network. Appl. Energy 2014, 132, 23–33. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aslanian, S.D. From the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean: The Global Trade Networks of Armenian Merchants from New Julfa; University of California Press: Berkeley, CA, USA, 2014; Volume 17. [Google Scholar]
- D’odorico, P.; Carr, J.A.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.; Vandoni, S. Feeding humanity through global food trade. Earth’s Future 2014, 2, 458–469. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, X.; Qiang, W.; Niu, S.; Liu, A.; Cheng, S.; Li, Z. Analysis on global agricultural trade network and its evolution. J. Nat. Resour. 2018, 33, 940–953. (In Chinese) [Google Scholar]
- Arita, S.; Grant, J.; Sydow, S.; Beckman, J. Has global agricultural trade been resilient under coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020. Food Policy 2022, 107, 102204. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Muthayya, S.; Sugimoto, J.D.; Montgomery, S.; Maberly, G.F. An overview of global rice production, supply, trade, and consumption. Ann. New York Acad. Sci. 2014, 1324, 7–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dalin, C.; Suweis, S.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39, L24402. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dalin, C.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. Evolution of the global virtual water trade network. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2012, 109, 5989–5994. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Dalin, C.; Wada, Y.; Kastner, T.; Puma, M.J. Groundwater depletion embedded in international food trade. Nature 2017, 543, 700–704. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Qiang, W.; Liu, A.; Cheng, S.; Kastner, T.; Xie, G. Agricultural trade and virtual land use: The case of China’s crop trade. Land Use Policy 2013, 33, 141–150. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Qiang, W.; Niu, S.; Liu, A.; Kastner, T.; Bie, Q.; Wang, X.; Cheng, S. Trends in global virtual land trade in relation to agricultural products. Land Use Policy 2020, 92, 104439. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lapola, D.M.; Priess, J. Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of biofuel crops in Brazil and India. IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. 2009, 6, 342027. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Xu, R.; H, X. Geographical Structure and Instability of China’s Apples. J. Lanzhou Univ. Soc. Sci. 2013, 41, 127–132. (In Chinese) [Google Scholar]
- Glattfelder, J.B.; Battiston, S. The backbone of complex networks of corporations: Who is controlling whom? Phys. Rev. E 2009, 80, 36104. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Foster, J.G.; Foster, R.V.; Grassberger, R.; Paczuski, R. Edge direction and the structure of networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2010, 107, 10815–10820. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Newman, M. The structure and function of complex networks. Siam Rev. 2003, 45, 167–256. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Girvan, M.; Newman, M.E. Community structure in social and biological networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2002, 99, 7821–7826. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Newman, M.E. Modularity and community structure in networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2006, 103, 8577–8582. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Leicht, E.A.; Newman, M.E. Community structure in directed networks. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2008, 100, 118703. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Ramirez-Marquez, J.E. Vulnerability metrics and analysis for communities in complex networks. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 2011, 96, 1360–1366. [Google Scholar]
- Wang, X.; Niu, S.; Qiang, W. Trade Network of Global Agricultural Products Weighted by Physical and Value Quantity. Econ. Geogr. 2019, 39, 164–173. (In Chinese) [Google Scholar]
- Huang, H.; von Lampe, M.; van Tongeren, F. Climate change and trade in agriculture. Food Policy 2011, 36, S9–S13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Headey, D. Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks. Food Policy 2011, 36, 136–146. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Puma, M.J.; Bose, S.; Chon, S.Y.; Cook, B.I. Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system. Environ. Res. Lett. 2015, 10, 024007. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Porkka, M.; Guillaume, J.H.; Siebert, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M. The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth. Earth’s Future 2017, 5, 393–407. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Categories | Name of Agricultural Products |
---|---|
Cereals | Wheat, maize, rice, millet, barley, buckwheat, sorghum, oats, rye, other grains |
Oil | Soybean, peanut, sunflower, flaxseed, rapeseed, sesame, nuts, olive |
Fiber | Lint, jute, sisal, ramie, cotton lint, cotton seed, cotton seed oil, cotton seed cake |
Sugar | Raw sugar, refined sugar |
Potato | Cassava, potato, sweet potato, yam, roots, tubers |
Fruit | Apples, pineapples, strawberries, peaches, watermelons, bananas, cherries, pears, mangoes, kiwis, papayas, lemons and limes, grapes, apricots, avocados, blueberries, figs, oranges, plums |
Vegetable | Garlic, onions, tomatoes, carrots and radishes, cauliflower and broccoli, cucumbers and gherkins, fennel celery, ginger, cabbage, peppers, bamboo shoots, lettuce and chicory, eggplant |
Meat | Pig, cattle, chicken, duck, goat, horse, rabbit, sheep |
Milk and eggs | Fresh milk, fresh goat milk, dairy products, eggs |
Others | Tea, beer, wine, beverages, coffee, cocoa, pepper, sweet pepper, cloves, other spices |
Source Countries of China’s Imports | Political Risk Index | Export Capacity Level | Inverse of Shortest Route | Degree of Export Security | Supply Country Interruption Ratio | Stability of China’s Agricultural Imports |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brazil | 0.14 | 0.92 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0 | 0.69 |
United States | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 10% | 0.60 |
Canada | 0.96 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 20% | 0.31 |
Australia | 0.88 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 30% | 0.14 |
New Zealand | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 40% | 0.08 |
Chile | 0.48 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 50% | 0.05 |
Argentina | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 60% | 0.04 |
Ukraine | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 0.01 | 70% | 0.03 |
Philippines | 0.14 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 80% | 0.02 |
Uruguay | 0.41 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 90% | 0.01 |
Total | 0.69 | 100% | 0 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Wang, X.; Ma, L.; Yan, S.; Chen, X.; Growe, A. Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks. Foods 2023, 12, 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12020271
Wang X, Ma L, Yan S, Chen X, Growe A. Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks. Foods. 2023; 12(2):271. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12020271
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Xiang, Libang Ma, Simin Yan, Xianfei Chen, and Anna Growe. 2023. "Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks" Foods 12, no. 2: 271. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12020271