Improving Sports Outcome Prediction Process Using Integrating Adaptive Weighted Features and Machine Learning Techniques
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Proposed Sports Outcome Prediction Process
4. Empirical Results
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Abbreviation | Description |
---|---|---|
2PA | 2-Point Field Goal Attempts of a team in game | |
2P% | 2-Point Field Goal Percentage of a team in game | |
3PA | 3-Point Field Goal Attempts of a team in game | |
3P% | 3-Point Field Goal Percentage of a team in game | |
FTA | Free Throw Attempts of a team in game | |
FT% | Free Throw Percentage of a team in game | |
ORB | Offensive Rebounds of a team in game | |
DRB | Defensive Rebounds of a team in game | |
AST | Assists of a team in game | |
STL | Steals of a team in game | |
BLK | Blocks of a team in game | |
TOV | Turnovers of a team in game | |
PF | Personal Fouls of a team in game | |
H/A | Home or Away game of a team in game | |
Score | Team Score of a team in game |
Game-Lag Selection | Methods, Mean (SD) | Weighting Control Parameter | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
d = 0 | d = 1 | d = 2 | d = 3 | ||
Lag = 3 | CART | 12.5396(0.3290) | 12.2611(0.3306) | 13.0188(0.4692) | 12.8924(0.2148) |
RF | 12.4307(0.2905) | 12.2159(0.3745) | 12.6226(0.4834) | 12.5646(0.2224) | |
SGB | 12.4195(0.2497) | 12.1671(0.3266) | 12.4670(0.4863) | 12.5261(0.2312) | |
XGBoost | 12.3062(0.2659) | 12.2736(0.3173) | 12.6042(0.4987) | 12.6124(0.2152) | |
ELM | 12.5172(0.3316) | 12.4846(0.3203) | 13.0403(0.4648) | 12.9261(0.1883) | |
Lag = 4 | CART | 12.3434(0.4804) | 11.7564(0.2878) | 12.9753(0.4243) | 12.4579(0.3524) |
RF | 11.9571(0.3822) | 11.6303(0.2608) | 12.6935(0.4393) | 12.2696(0.3283) | |
SGB | 12.0481(0.4366) | 11.5586(0.2914) | 12.6784(0.3873) | 12.1120(0.3628) | |
XGBoost | 12.0491(0.4159) | 11.6941(0.2787) | 12.6785(0.4090) | 12.0791(0.3280) | |
ELM | 12.2817(0.3972) | 11.8020(0.2599) | 12.9334(0.3991) | 12.4511(0.3401) | |
Lag = 5 | CART | 13.1326(0.2213) | 12.4316(0.2403) | 12.8013(0.2307) | 13.0725(0.4351) |
RF | 12.6148(0.2084) | 12.1525(0.2545) | 12.5351(0.3057) | 12.8432(0.4818) | |
SGB | 12.6969(0.2198) | 12.2448(0.2307) | 12.6745(0.1237) | 12.9750(0.3807) | |
XGBoost | 12.7785(0.1925) | 12.3145(0.2506) | 12.6760(0.1069) | 12.8648(0.3881) | |
ELM | 13.0344(0.1970) | 12.6748(0.2529) | 13.0100(0.1896) | 13.0235(0.4071) | |
Lag = 6 | CART | 12.3738(0.2968) | 12.0896(0.3365) | 12.9175(0.3717) | 12.4925(0.3025) |
RF | 12.3614(0.2805) | 12.0245(0.4672) | 12.9398(0.3260) | 12.3072(0.3375) | |
SGB | 12.1067(0.3232) | 12.0293(0.3484) | 12.9223(0.2830) | 12.0876(0.2995) | |
XGBoost | 12.1655(0.3143) | 11.9898(0.3171) | 12.8547(0.3208) | 12.2934(0.3074) | |
ELM | 12.3923(0.2942) | 12.2520(0.3485) | 13.0727(0.2992) | 12.3416(0.3309) |
Game-Lag Selection | Methods, CI | Weighting Control Parameter | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
d = 0 | d = 1 | d = 2 | d = 3 | ||
Lag = 3 | CART | (12.6041, 12.4751) | (12.3259, 12.1963) | (13.1107, 12.9268) | (12.9345, 12.8503) |
RF | (12.4876, 12.3737) | (12.2893, 12.1425) | (12.7173, 12.5279) | (12.6081, 12.5210) | |
SGB | (12.4684, 12.3705) | (12.2311, 12.1030) | (12.5623, 12.3717) | (12.5715, 12.4808) | |
XGBoost | (12.3583, 12.2541) | (12.3357, 12.2114) | (12.7020, 12.5065) | (12.6545, 12.5702) | |
ELM | (12.5822, 12.4522) | (12.5473, 12.4218) | (13.1314, 12.9492) | (12.9630, 12.8892) | |
Lag = 4 | CART | (12.4376, 12.2493) | (11.8128, 11.7000) | (13.0584, 12.8921) | (12.5269, 12.3888) |
RF | (12.0320, 11.8822) | (11.6814, 11.5791) | (12.7796, 12.6074) | (12.3612, 12.2325) | |
SGB | (12.1337, 11.9625) | (11.6157, 11.5015) | (12.7543, 12.6025) | (12.1832, 12.0409) | |
XGBoost | (12.1306, 11.9675) | (11.7487, 11.6395) | (12.7586, 12.5983) | (12.1434, 12.0148) | |
ELM | (12.3595, 12.2038) | (11.8529, 11.7511) | (13.0116, 12.8552) | (12.5187, 12.3845) | |
Lag = 5 | CART | (13.1759, 13.0892) | (12.4787, 12.3845) | (12.8465, 12.7561) | (13.1578, 12.9872) |
RF | (12.6557, 12.5740) | (12.2024, 12.1026) | (12.5951, 12.4752) | (12.9377, 12.7488) | |
SGB | (12.7400, 12.6538) | (12.2901, 12.1996) | (12.6987, 12.6502) | (13.0496, 12.9003) | |
XGBoost | (12.8162, 12.7408) | (12.3636, 12.2654) | (12.6970, 12.6551) | (12.9409, 12.7888) | |
ELM | (13.0730, 12.9958) | (12.7244, 12.6253) | (13.0471, 12.9728) | (13.1033, 12.9437) | |
Lag = 6 | CART | (112.4319, 12.3156) | (12.1555, 12.0236) | (12.9903, 12.8446) | (12.5518, 12.4332) |
RF | (12.4163, 12.3064) | (12.1161, 11.9329) | (13.0037, 12.8759) | (12.3734, 12.2411) | |
SGB | (12.1700, 12.0433) | (12.0975, 11.9610) | (12.9778, 12.8668) | (12.1463, 12.0289) | |
XGBoost | (12.2271, 12.1039) | (12.0520, 11.9276) | (12.9175, 12.7918) | (12.3537, 12.2332) | |
ELM | (12.4499, 12.3346) | (12.3203, 12.1837) | (13.1314, 13.0141) | (12.4064, 12.2767) |
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Lu, C.-J.; Lee, T.-S.; Wang, C.-C.; Chen, W.-J. Improving Sports Outcome Prediction Process Using Integrating Adaptive Weighted Features and Machine Learning Techniques. Processes 2021, 9, 1563. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9091563
Lu C-J, Lee T-S, Wang C-C, Chen W-J. Improving Sports Outcome Prediction Process Using Integrating Adaptive Weighted Features and Machine Learning Techniques. Processes. 2021; 9(9):1563. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9091563
Chicago/Turabian StyleLu, Chi-Jie, Tian-Shyug Lee, Chien-Chih Wang, and Wei-Jen Chen. 2021. "Improving Sports Outcome Prediction Process Using Integrating Adaptive Weighted Features and Machine Learning Techniques" Processes 9, no. 9: 1563. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9091563