Sustainable Solar Desalination: Experimental Predictive Control with Integrated LCA and Techno-Economic Evaluation

This study experimentally validates a solar-thermal desalination system equipped with predictive feedwater control guided by real-time solar forecasting. Unlike conventional systems that react to temperature changes, the proposed approach proactively adjusts feedwater flow in anticipation of solar variability. To assess environmental and financial sustainability, the study integrates this control logic with a full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA). Field testing in a high-temperature, arid region demonstrated strong performance, achieving a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 1.80 kg CO₂-eq/m³ and a Levelized Cost of Water (LCOW) of $0.88/m³. Environmental impacts were quantified using OpenLCA and ecoinvent datasets, covering climate change, acidification, and eutrophication categories. The TEA confirmed economic feasibility, reporting a positive Net Present Value (NPV) and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) exceeding 11.5% over a 20-year lifespan. Sensitivity analysis showed that forecast precision and TES design strongly influence both environmental and economic outcomes. The integration of intelligent control with simplified thermal storage offers a scalable, cost-effective solution for off-grid freshwater production in solar-rich regions.