Bounded Rational Decision-Risk Propagation Coupling Dynamics in Directed Weighted Multilayer Hypernetworks

Industrial symbiosis network (ISN) is crucial to improving resource utilization efficiency and promoting sustainable development. In order to mitigate the damage caused to symbiotic systems by risk propagation, this paper constructs a directed weighted multilayer hypernetwork model that considers bounded rational decision and risk propagation coupling (UA^PA^HU – SIS), providing a new method for risk management in industrial symbiosis networks. This paper constructs a weighted hypernetwork model to simulate the interaction of risk information in a symbiotic network and uses a time-varying adaptive propagation mechanism to describe the changes in bounded rational decisions made by enterprises during the risk information interaction process. A directed weighted network is developed to simulate the evolution process of an industrial symbiosis network, with the network topology representing the risk propagation path. The study also considers the roles of mass media and crowd effects and innovatively introduces the assumption of decision incubation periods. The proposed coupled dynamic model is theoretically analyzed and numerically simulated by using the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA). The findings indicate that enhancing the enterprises’ risk response willingness and risk perception ability, improving the risk recovery ability, and cooperating with timely and accurate media reports can effectively inhibit the risk propagation on ISN.