Characterizing the Full Climate Impact of Individual Real-World Flights Using a Linear Temperature Response Model

Aviation’s non-CO₂ effects account for approximately 66% of the sector’s Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF). However, non-CO₂ emissions and their climate effects are particularly challenging to assess due to the number of variables involved. This research provides a framework for characterizing the full climate impact of individual real-world flights in terms of global surface temperature change (ΔT) with the aid of a validated CFM56-7B26/3 engine model and spatially and temporally resolved meteorological data. Different modelling methods were used to evaluate NO_x and soot emissions and the relative differences between them were quantified, while a contrail formation model was implemented to quantify the distances travelled where persistent contrails were formed. The ΔT was evaluated over 77 years using a Linear Temperature Response Model (LTR). The results show that NO_x-induced effects such as the increase in short-term ozone had the highest impact on ΔT in the first year of emissions, while CO₂ was more detrimental to ΔT in the long term. Unlike the mid and long-range flights examined, the climb segment of the short-range flight had a more significant impact on ΔT than the cruise segment. ΔT sensitivity studies for different emission modelling methods showed differences up to 13% for NO_x and 14% for soot.