Section 3.1 and
Section 3.2 will describe the procedure in the medium-term scenario in more detail. The approach to determining energy demand, emissions and ticket prices is similar for all time horizons. Therefore, the methodology described in
Section 2 is carried out once here. However, the different aircraft configuration already indicated in
Table 1 was used. The fuel mix ratio in the medium-term (ICE + Battery) is 75% kerosene and 25% SAF, and the infrastructure is shown in
Figure 4.
3.1. Determining Energy Demand ICE + Battery and PEMFC + Battery HEA
Based on information from the relevant commercial flight and the configuration of the HEA, an overview of the fuel requirements for the eligible flights was made. To determine the maximum fuel and electricity supplies, one of the busiest days was selected for flights up to 1111 km to the destination.
For the medium term, based on these assumptions, the amount of electricity which the HEA flights would potentially require on a busy day at a regional airport is reported in
Table 5. The departure airport in this study is Rotterdam.
Table 5 lists the destinations and the amount of kerosene, SAF and electrical energy or LH
2 and electrical energy required for the HEA in parentheses. The electrical energy demand for ICE + Battery HEA is listed as “Electric ICE [kWh]”. The electrical energy demand for PEMFC + Battery HEA is listed as “Electric ICE [kWh]” in
Table 5. These destinations are determined from the number of PAX and the distance, as already described in
Section 2.3. It can be seen that several flights would have to take off at the same time. This is, of course, not possible, but it should serve here as an introduction to show the potential energy demand of the HEA. Energy consumption per flight is high in the morning and evening for the London destination and average for European flights. The total capacity required is highest in the late afternoon, shown in
Figure 6. This high capacity is because three flights with many passengers depart in the afternoon.
Figure 6 illustrates the high capacity of the period from 16:30 to 17:04. The initial calculations and simulations show that the short-term scenario requires a daily kerosene demand of 13.37 tonnes, an SAF demand of 4.39 tonnes and an electrical energy demand of 46.68 MWh (yellow line).
To compare the impact of LH
2, based on the combination of information from the respective RTHA traffic flight and the configuration of the newly developed medium-term HEA with PMFC + Battery, an overview of the fuel requirements for the considered flights is shown in
Table 5 as “LH
2” and “Electric PEMFC”. Initial calculations and simulations show that the HEA in the medium-term scenario with PMFC + Battery no longer requires the daily kerosene demand of 23.5 tonnes (short-term) and 13.37 tonnes (medium-term-ICE + Battery). Similarly, the SAF demand of 2.55 tonnes (short-term) and 4.39 tonnes (medium-term-ICE + Battery) is no longer needed. Instead, a liquid hydrogen requirement of 5.523 tonnes is now determined to fuel the aircraft. In addition, the PEMFC + Battery medium-term HEA will be fitted with a battery of higher capacity and power, increasing the demand for electrical energy from 26.05 MWh (short-term) and 46.68 MWh (medium-term-ICE + Battery) to 50.425 MWh (black line).
In order to replace these flights with hybrid-electric flights, a new flight schedule with new departure times must be created. This new flight schedule is presented in
Table 6. In this table, the old departure times of the original flight plan are listed again. New departure times are introduced in the column to the right with the destination abbreviation. These new departure times are based on the original time, and an average time of 10 min assumed between the departure times. These 10 min are for taxiing from the gate to the runway and subsequent take-off. The kerosene, SAF and electrical energy consumption of each HEA is given and composed of typical mission (200 nmi) and design mission (600 nmi) flights. The maximum number of passengers per flight is 50. The maximum range of the potential flights was kept below 1111.2 km to represent a realistic scenario.
As in the scenarios before, PEMFC + Battery HEA should replace conventional aircrafts in this medium-term scenario. These energy requirements are also listed in
Table 6 on the right side as “LH
2” and “Electric PEMFC”.
Figure 7 shows the new flight plan’s results and the energy required. It is apparent that in the early morning, for the flights to London (LO), 1525 kWh of electrical energy is required to charge the aircraft and refuel them for the flight. The kerosene quantity is 306 kg, and the SAF quantity is 100 kg, with the previously defined specifications of 75% kerosene and 25% SAF. The equalisation of the flights to Pula (PU), Vienna (VIE) and Montpellier (MO) show an electrical energy demand of 2220 kWh to 2021 kWh. The flight schedule was equalised, and the electrical energy required from 16:00 to 17:29. The kerosene/SAF requirement of a maximum of 683 kg/flight can also be easily provided. Four take-offs to Pisa (PI) are required in the evening, with an electrical energy quantity of 2175 kWh and a kerosene quantity of 669 kg/flight. As soon as the last flight at 20:26 to London has taken off with an electrical energy quantity of 1525 kWh and 306 kg of kerosene, the electrical energy consumption of the airport can be reduced again.
As in the scenarios before, the HEA’s kerosene, SAF and electrical energy consumption are now eliminated.
Figure 7 shows the results of the new flight plan for required LH
2 (blue) and electrical energy (black). Early morning flights to London (LO) require 1644 kWh of electrical energy in the medium term to recharge the aircraft and refuel for the flight. This is because a more powerful battery is installed in the PEMFC aircraft than in the previous time horizon. The liquid hydrogen quantity is 105 kg instead of the paraffin quantities of 306 kg (medium-term) and 557 kg (short-term). The reconciliation of the flights to Pula (PU), Vienna (VIE) and Montpellier (MO) resulted in an electrical energy demand of 2399 kWh to 2184 kWh, which is significantly higher than in the previous scenarios, as expected. The flight schedule was adjusted, and electrical energy is required from 16:00 to 17:29. The kerosene/SAF requirement of a maximum of 1191 kg/flight in the short term and a maximum of 683 kg/flight (medium-term) is now also omitted here. A maximum of 290 kg of liquid hydrogen is required for the flight to Pula. Four take-offs to Pisa (PI) are required in the evening, with an electrical energy quantity of 2351 kWh. The paraffin amounts of 1167 kg/flight in the short-term horizon and 669 kg/flight in the medium horizon with ICE + Battery are omitted, and 284 kg liquid hydrogen per flight is required. Once the last flight has taken off at 20:26 to London with an electrical energy quantity of 1644 kWh and 105 kg of liquid hydrogen, the electrical energy consumption of the airport can be reduced again. In the long term, storing electrical energy not needed in large batteries or converting it into liquid hydrogen can be considered.
Finally, the annual energy demand for the short-term scenario is given in
Table 7.
Table 7 shows the energy demand for hybrid-electric flights in 2030 per month to determine the loading and refuelling energy for one year in 2030. It was concluded that 3215 tonnes of kerosene, 1056 tonnes of SAF and 11.704 GWh of electrical energy would be required in the short-term horizon to operate the HEA. These calculations were made with a fuel mix ratio of 75% kerosene, 25% SAF and an HEA configuration.
For the PEMFC + Battery aircraft, the energy demand is listed on the right side of
Table 7 as “LH2 [tons]” and “Electric PEMFC” [MWh]. This table shows the energy demand for HEA flights in 2040 per month to determine the loading and refuelling energy for one year in 2040. It was found that, instead of 3215 tonnes (medium-term-ICE + Battery), 1291 tonnes of liquid hydrogen are now required to operate the HEA in the medium-term scenario. The requirement of 1056 tonnes of SAF in the medium-term horizon are eliminated accordingly. The demand for electrical energy of 11.704 GWh (medium-term-ICE + Battery) increases to 12.640 GWh (black line). The demand for electrical energy is 74% higher than for the short-term horizon (Table 13). The demand for electrical energy in the medium-term with PEMFC is almost 8% higher than in the medium-term scenario with ICE + Battery. This is due, on the one hand, to the increased battery capacity in the PEMFC aircraft, and on the other hand to the use of liquid hydrogen. The charging and refuelling energy for the HEA is shown in
Figure 8.
3.2. Determining Cost Estimations and Emissions for the Short-Term
In this section, a cost and emission forecast for the period 2025–2035 will be given. First, it should be explained how the data were obtained. It is important to read
Section 2.2 and
Section 2.3 first. Gilbarco Tritium RT175-S DCFC Fast Charge Single Electric Vehicle 175 kW Charging Stations have a list price of USD 105,000 each. For a charging station with double capacity, an investment of USD 175,000 is considered [
23]. Costs for maintenance have not yet been released.
Capex and Opex of the Maeve Recharge 30-ft container with 8 MW battery capacity and control module have also not yet been released. The battery pack cost will be lower than the market price for new batteries because it is reused from electric aircraft. The final megawatt charging system (MCS) standard is expected to be published in 2024 [
24,
25].
For the ticket price calculation in the short-term scenario, the data and calculations in
Section 2.3 were used as a base Then, using the flight distance, the information from RTHA and the composition of the current ticket price, the price of a passenger per km can be given. It is further assumed that fuel costs and landing fees account for 30% of the ticket price. Furthermore, three possible environmental price increases offered by Lufthansa [
26,
27] were included and applied to the ERJ 190 and B737. A number is given in the brackets after the respective conditions, indicating which scenarios were considered in the following tables. These three environmental price increases amount to:
A 100% climate project subsidy (100% describes that, with this selection, the full 2.6%, which is additionally paid by the client, goes into climate projects)—2.6% → (1);
An 80% climate project subsidy and 20% SAF fuel—21% → (2);
A 100% SAF fuel and CO2 emissions reduced—by 96% → (3).
In addition, an average inflation rate of 2.44% was assumed, which resulted over the last 50 years in Germany [
28]. This inflation rate is also included in the ticket prices, to give a realistic estimate of the prices for different time horizons.
For the price comparison per ticket with the GENESIS flight, Scenario 2 was assumed in the short term. Therefore, this scenario is considered with 20% SAF fuel and is comparable with the HEA case study. The calculated costs for the short-distance flight are shown in
Table 8, and the costs for the medium-distance flight are in
Table 9. These calculations and data show that HEA ticket prices are somewhat higher than conventional ticket prices for typical mission flights such as to London. However, in the medium-term scenario, the ticket price for a flight with ICE + Battery HEA is 1.8 below the comparable ticket price with 20% SAF. The expected ticket price for design mission flights is 11.8% below the comparable price when using an HEA. As soon as HEA flights with PEMFC + Battery can be offered, the ticket price difference is considered very attractive purely on the basis considered: a price saving of 46.7% is expected for typical mission flights and 40.4% for design mission flights.
Table 10 shows an estimate of the ticket development for 2040, which can be derived using the presented method. This table illustrates very well the impact of inflation and the environmental bonus in the categories on different routes. According to this, the EIS of PEMFC + Battery HEA results in competitive ticket prices for HEA PEMFC tickets. The tickets for the flight to Pisa are 17% more expensive than the expected ticket prices without subsidy (4). As soon as customers want to fly with “80% climate project subsidy and 20% SAF fuel (2,4)”, the ticket PEMFC HEA is already 4% cheaper. Nonetheless, it should always be mentioned that the calculation was made without the high investment research and operating costs.
Nevertheless, the savings on the expected ticket price per passenger offer a first estimate to make these investments lucrative for airlines and to justify the initial investments with a long view into the future. This fact confirms the previously established thesis that HEA flights have the potential to be financially attractive and environmentally friendly.
Finally, the HEA flights’ estimated emissions for the short-term scenario are given for an average day, month and year. The calculation basis was the methods described in
Section 2.3. The results are presented in
Table 11. The HEA produce daily emissions of almost 58 tonnes of CO
2. Annual emissions of nearly 13 863.65 tonnes of CO
2 are expected. The NO
x values are 49.619 tonnes per year, whereas 20.04 tonnes of CO are expected to be emitted annually. The values were estimated according to the procedure presented in
Section 2.3. These high emissions indicate the urgency of transitioning towards sustainable hybrid-electric aviation.
For further classification and comparison purposes, a conventional aircraft from D1.2 [
13] was used in
Table 12. These flights were considered with kerosene only. By comparing the emissions of
Table 11 and
Table 12, it can be deduced that, by flying with PEMFC + Battery HEA, 49.5% CO
2, 51.1% NO
x and 48% H
2O saving can be achieved. Flying with a PEMFC + Battery HEA, 100% CO
2, 100% NO
x and 77.9% H
2O savings can be achieved.
3.3. Results over All Time Horizons
This section summarises all data for the operation of a regional airport for the different time horizons and aircraft configurations. The results for the short-term scenario (ICE + Battery—2030) follow the procedure described in
Section 3.1 and
Section 3.2, but here the fuel composition is, as already mentioned, 90% kerosene and 10% SAF. In addition, a lower powerful battery is installed. The results for the long-term scenario (PEMFC + Battery—2050) are obtained according to the procedure also described in
Section 3.1 and
Section 3.2. Here, a further developed PEMFC and further developed battery are included in the aircraft configuration. For more detailed information on the aircraft configuration, please refer back to [
10] or [
13].
The already-presented results of the medium-term scenario (ICE + Battery) and medium-term scenario (PEMFC + Battery) are taken up in the following tables. They can be classified as short-term (ICE + Battery—2030) and long-term (PEMFC + Battery—2050).
Table 13 shows the annual energy demand for the process of the HEA in different time horizons. It was found that, instead of 5608 tonnes of paraffin (short term), 3215 tonnes (medium term ICE + Battery) and 1291 tonnes of liquid hydrogen (medium term PEMFC + Battery), 1234 tonnes of liquid hydrogen would now be required to operate the HEA in the long-term scenario. The electrical energy demands of 7233 GWh (short term), 11,704 GWh (medium term -ICE + Battery) and 12,640 GWh (medium term -PEMFC + Battery) are now 11,622 GWh. The demand for electrical energy is 60% higher than in the short term. The demand for electrical energy in the medium-term scenario with PEMFC is almost 0.7% lower, and thus almost identical to the medium-term scenario ICE + Battery. Overall, the demand for electrical energy in the medium-term scenario with PEMFC + Battery is 8.1% lower than in the short-term scenario.
Table 14 shows the expected and extrapolated ticket prices for the different time horizons. The approach was the same as in
Section 2.2,
Section 3.1 and
Section 3.2. The HEA ticket price is expected to be 49.4% cheaper for typical mission flights and 45.7% for design mission flights in the long-term PEMFC + Battery scenario. The list was compiled without the high investment, research and operating costs. As described in the respective sections, the price calculations considered environmental aspects and expected inflation rates.
However, the high savings in the expected ticket price per passenger offer an excellent field to make these investments lucrative for airlines and passengers through hybrid-electric typical and design mission flights. This fact confirms the previously established thesis that hybrid-electric flights have the potential to be financially attractive and environmentally friendly. The assumed costs for CO2 compensation are justified here, as more and more institutions, such as FAU, are obliged to pay CO2 compensation on ticket prices for business trips.
Table 15 summarises the extrapolated and expected emissions of the different time horizons and aircraft types. The mentioned reference aircraft (ATR 42 with a Pratt and Whitney PW127 engine) is listed first under the 2012 category for comparison purposes.