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Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina

1
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires 1425, Argentina
2
Centro de Estudios de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático (CEVARCAM), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe 3000, Argentina
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2021, 9(3), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030040
Received: 2 January 2021 / Revised: 13 February 2021 / Accepted: 19 February 2021 / Published: 27 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Land)
The core crop region of the Humid Pampa is one of the most productive agricultural lands around the world and depends highly on climate conditions. This study assesses climate variability, climate extremes, and observed and projected climate changes there, using 1911–2019 observations and CMIP5 model simulations. Since 1970, the annual mean temperature has risen by 1 °C and the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures by 2 and 0.5 °C, respectively. The frequency of warm days and nights increased, and cold days and nights decreased. Heatwaves became longer and more intense, and cold waves decreased with less frost events. Annual precipitation increased by 10% from 1911, mainly in summer, and years with excess precipitation outnumbered those with a deficit. Both intense precipitation events and consecutive dry days grew, suggesting more annual precipitation falling on fewer days. Projections show a warming of 1 °C by 2035, regardless of the scenario. From then on until 2100, mean temperature will increase by 2 and 3–3.5 °C in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual precipitation will grow 8 and 16% from current values by 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. No major precipitation changes are projected in the RCP2.6 scenario. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate variability; climate extremes; climate change; Humid Pampa; global climate models; future scenarios climate variability; climate extremes; climate change; Humid Pampa; global climate models; future scenarios
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MDPI and ACS Style

Müller, G.V.; Lovino, M.A.; Sgroi, L.C. Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina. Climate 2021, 9, 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030040

AMA Style

Müller GV, Lovino MA, Sgroi LC. Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina. Climate. 2021; 9(3):40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030040

Chicago/Turabian Style

Müller, Gabriela V.; Lovino, Miguel A.; Sgroi, Leandro C. 2021. "Observed and Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Core Crop Region of the Humid Pampa, Argentina" Climate 9, no. 3: 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030040

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