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Open AccessArticle

The Hiatus in Global Warming and Interactions between the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Comparing Observations and Modeling Results

by Knut L. Seip 1,* and Hui Wang 2
1
OsloMet, Oslo Metropolitan University, Pilestredet 35 N, 0130 Oslo, Norway
2
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Court, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2018, 6(3), 72; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030072
Received: 9 July 2018 / Revised: 24 August 2018 / Accepted: 28 August 2018 / Published: 4 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)
Ocean oscillations interact across large regions and these interactions may explain cycles in global temperature anomaly, including hiatus periods. Here, we examine ocean interaction measures and compare results from model simulations to observations for El Niño and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We use the global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre. A relatively novel method for identifying running leading-agging LL-relations show that the observed El Niño generally leads the observed PDO and this pattern is strengthened in the simulations. However, LL-pattern in both observations and models shows that there are three periods, around 1910–1920, around 1960 and around 2000 where El Niño lags PDO, or the leading signature is weak. These periods correspond to hiatus periods in global warming. The power spectral density analysis, (PSD), identifies various ocean cycle lengths in El Niño and PDO, but the LL-algorithm picks out common cycles of 7–8 and 24 years that shows leading-lagging relations between them. View Full-Text
Keywords: modeling; El Niño; Pacific decadal oscillation; variability; power spectral density; leading-lagging relations modeling; El Niño; Pacific decadal oscillation; variability; power spectral density; leading-lagging relations
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Seip, K.L.; Wang, H. The Hiatus in Global Warming and Interactions between the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Comparing Observations and Modeling Results. Climate 2018, 6, 72.

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