Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Rainfall Trend Analysis through Non-Parametric Tests in the Sebou River Basin (SRB), Northern Morocco
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data: Selection of Rainfall Series, Quality Control, and Homogenization
3. Methodology
4. Results
4.1. Annual Rainfall Trend
4.2. Seasonal Rainfall Trends
4.2.1. Slight Increase in Autumnal Rainfall
4.2.2. Winter Rainfall Has Sharp Decreasing Trend
4.2.3. Spring Rainfall Decline
4.2.4. Summer Rainfall Trend
4.3. Monthly Rainfall Trend
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
- A pronounced negative trend was observed for annual rainfall in almost all stations in the series, mainly concentrated in the areas between Taza and Jabal Oudka. Sen’s slope ranged between −9.7 mm and −58 mm per decade.
- At the seasonal scale, we noted a slight increasing trend in autumn rainfall and a downward trend in summer rainfall, but most prominently, a decreasing trend in winter and spring rainfall ranging from −7 mm and −47 mm/10 years in winter months and −12 mm/10 years on average in spring.
- Most of the winter decrease occurred in December and February, while spring rainfall decreased, especially in March and April.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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ID | Station | Lat (° N) | Long (° W) | Elevation (m) | Annual Rainfall (Mm) | Interannual Standard Deviation | Kurtosis | Skewness |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Ait Khabbach | 33.39 | −4.82 | 1491 | 379..2 | 111..0 | 0.17 | 0.61 |
S2 | Azzaba | 33.82 | −4.7 | 759 | 368.6 | 113.6 | 1.33 | 1.17 |
S3 | Bab Ounder | 34.53 | −4.58 | 509 | 703.3 | 255.9 | −0.22 | 0.60 |
S4 | Boured | 34.73 | −4.10 | 817 | 560.9 | 193.5 | −0.33 | 0.47 |
S5 | El Mers | 33.46 | −4.39 | 1242 | 453.2 | 136.5 | 2.07 | 1.04 |
S6 | Fez | 33.93 | −4.98 | 569 | 442.7 | 143.5 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
S7 | Ifrane | 33.53 | −5.11 | 1661 | 985.2 | 326.3 | 0.66 | 0.95 |
S8 | Jbel Oudka | 34.75 | −4.84 | 1589 | 1469.0 | 526.8 | −0.17 | 0.55 |
S9 | Meknes | 33.87 | −5.52 | 570 | 539.7 | 182.5 | 0.48 | 0.71 |
S10 | Mjaara | 34.59 | −5.24 | 128 | 600.4 | 214.8 | 0.18 | 0.71 |
S11 | Ouljet Essoultan | 33.62 | −5.86 | 334 | 456.9 | 132.3 | −0.13 | 0.51 |
S12 | Souk el Had Rdom | 34.30 | −5.77 | 34 | 412.2 | 133.6 | −0.19 | 0.43 |
S13 | Tahla | 34.05 | −4.43 | 571 | 551.0 | 170.5 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
S14 | Taza | 34.22 | −4.01 | 522 | 652.5 | 207.1 | −0.18 | 0.43 |
S15 | Tissa | 34.29 | −4.66 | 204 | 538.8 | 198.9 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
ID | Station Name | Annual | Autumn | Winter | Spring | Summer | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSA mm/10 y | MK | TSA mm/10 y | MK | TSA mm/10 y | MK | TSA mm/10 y | MK | TSA mm/10 y | MK | ||
S1 | Ait Khabbach | −9.71 | −1.21 | 0.71 | 0.23 | −8.46 | −2.30 * | −4.67 | −1.01 | 5.35 | 1.60 |
S2 | Azzaba | −17.03 | −2.00 * | 0.73 | 0.18 | −7.45 | −1.60 | −11.66 | −2.27 ** | −3.25 | −2.90 ** |
S3 | Bab ounder | −31.37 | −1.52 | 4.91 | 0.71 | −27.73 | −2.07 * | −6.23 | −0.60 | −1.00 | −1.58 |
S4 | Boured | −44.83 | −2.59 ** | 4.30 | 0.74 | −28.22 | −2.64 ** | −14.00 | −1.97 * | −3.20 | −2.11 * |
S5 | Elmers | −13.94 | −1.57 | 6.29 | 1.39 | −6.80 | −1.35 | −11.41 | −1.96 * | 0.08 | 0.01 |
S6 | Fes DRH | −24.88 | −2.39 * | 3.54 | 0.74 | −10.33 | −1.65 + | −15.52 | −2.49 ** | −2.06 | −3.12 ** |
S7 | Ifrane | −31.12 | −1.22 | 3.60 | 0.29 | −27.00 | −1.96 * | −14.13 | −1.66 + | −1.30 | −0.41 |
S8 | Jbel oudka | −58.00 | −1.22 | 7.54 | 0.56 | −47.52 | −1.66 + | −18.90 | −1.01 | −3.36 | −2.35 * |
S9 | Meknes | −36.53 | −2.62 ** | 2.28 | 0.48 | −19.96 | −2.49 * | −16.07 | −2.18 * | −0.47 | −0.54 |
S10 | Mjaara | −17.10 | −0.90 | 4.91 | 0.64 | −18.77 | −1.75 + | −4.00 | −0.58 | −0.71 | −1.41 |
S11 | Ouljet Essoultan | −22.48 | −1.92 + | 0.38 | 0.10 | −11.68 | −1.64 | −13.35 | −2.38 * | −0.66 | −0.98 |
S12 | Souk el Had Rdom | −15.00 | −1.41 | 6.14 | 1.07 | −16.86 | −2.51 * | −7.27 | −1.41 | −0.08 | −1.61 |
S13 | Tahla | −32.12 | −2.15 * | 5.69 | 1.14 | −15.26 | −2.07 * | −16.63 | −2.28 * | −1.43 | −1.49 |
S14 | Taza | −41.18 | −2.50 * | −0.71 | −0.08 | −22.27 | −2.21 * | −15.31 | −2.05 * | −1.09 | −1.43 |
S15 | Tissa | −15.65 | −1.05 | 2.27 | 0.42 | −15.51 | −1.60 | −8.48 | −1.11 | −0.46 | −0.88 |
ID | Station | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Mai | Jun | Jul | Aug |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Ait Khabbach | 1.22 | 0.69 | −1.60 | −1.55 | −0.36 | −2.45 | −1.54 | −1.54 | 0.73 | −1.23 | −1.23 | 2.69 |
S2 | Azzaba | 1.11 | 0.87 | −0.28 | −0.92 | 0.57 | −1.33 | −2.07 | −1.35 | −0.31 | −3.94 | −3.94 | 0.23 |
S3 | Bab Ounder | 1.45 | 1.78 | 0.03 | −1.23 | −0.21 | −1.13 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.89 | −2.72 | −2.72 | 0.52 |
S4 | Boured | 2.17 | 1.02 | −0.19 | −1.24 | −0.69 | −0.84 | −0.33 | −2.01 | −0.63 | −3.52 | −3.52 | −0.01 |
S5 | El Mers | 2.34 | 0.50 | −0.44 | −0.90 | −0.16 | −0.79 | −2.10 | −2.05 | −0.69 | −3.40 | −3.40 | 1.69 |
S6 | Fez | −0.18 | 0.15 | 0.67 | −1.08 | 0.06 | −1.57 | −2.20 | −1.72 | −2.67 | −3.77 | −3.77 | −1.71 |
S7 | Ifrane | 0.55 | 0.94 | 0.01 | −0.86 | 0.13 | −1.25 | −0.60 | −0.86 | −1.08 | −2.45 | −2.45 | 1.66 |
S8 | Jbel Oudka | 0.97 | 1.45 | 0.41 | −0.95 | 0.27 | −1.33 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −3.39 | −3.39 | 0.50 |
S9 | Meknes | 0.25 | 1.29 | −0.03 | −1.70 | −0.35 | −1.52 | −1.68 | −1.24 | −0.52 | −2.02 | −2.02 | 1.33 |
S10 | Mjaara | 1.32 | 1.33 | 0.50 | −0.78 | 0.33 | −0.86 | −0.38 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −3.02 | −3.02 | 1.68 |
S11 | Ouljet Essoultan | −0.22 | 0.80 | −0.42 | −1.33 | 0.44 | −0.44 | −1.18 | −1.82 | −1.24 | −2.84 | −2.84 | 0.42 |
S12 | Souk el Had Rdom | 1.44 | 1.60 | 0.41 | −2.06 | −0.14 | −1.18 | −0.93 | −0.26 | −1.51 | −2.50 | −2.50 | 0.53 |
S13 | Tahla | 0.53 | 1.35 | 0.77 | −0.79 | −0.10 | −1.71 | −1.60 | −1.33 | −1.41 | −2.63 | −2.63 | −0.37 |
S14 | Taza | 1.14 | 1.04 | −0.25 | −1.18 | −0.41 | −1.11 | −1.32 | −1.48 | −1.20 | −3.57 | −3.57 | −0.56 |
S15 | Tissa | 1.21 | 0.47 | 0.43 | −0.62 | 0.51 | −1.16 | −0.49 | −0.63 | −0.71 | −1.69 | −1.69 | 0.27 |
Country/ Region | Data/Variable | Methods | Key Findings | References |
---|---|---|---|---|
Morocco and its vicinity | Rainfall data from 42 stations, NCEP reanalysis the period 1930–2000 | Precipitation Index anomalies, Teleconnections, Circulation weather types, models projections | The northward shift of the storm track and eastward shift of the Azores High predicted by the ECHAM model for increasing GHG concentrations would therefore be associated with decreasing precipitation and potentially serious impacts for the future water supply for parts of Morocco. | [2] |
Morocco | Rainfall from 3 stations in the lower Sebou basinthe period 1948–2017 | Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen slope | Notable downward trends were identified in early winter (December) and early spring (March) with rainfall decreases of 0.5 mm/year and 0.42 mm/year, respectively | [45] |
Mediterranean area | Rainfall from 211 gauged stations the period 1918–1999 | Student’s t-test Mann–Kendal test | The trends appear predominantly negative, both at the annual and seasonal scale, except for the summer period when it appears to be positive | [17] |
Morocco | Rainfall and temperature data from 30 stations data 1960–2016 | Climate indices and Mann–Kendal test | Statistically significant increasing trends in warm temperature events and the annual mean precipitation and the standardized drought index show less spatially consistent tendencies despite the predominance of negative trends | [33] |
Morocco | Monthly rainfall series from 50 stations in 27 watersheds in Morocco | Regional vector Pettit’s nonparametric method, Bayesian Lee and Heghinian method, and Hubert’s segmentation | The precipitations are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation West of the Atlas. they provide evidence of a generalized rainfall reduction by an abrupt change in the time series between 1976 and 1980 | [46] |
Morocco | Monthly rainfall data from 15 stations over a 40-years period (1970–2010) in the Oum Errabia watershed | Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and trend analysis using Mann–Kendal test | The results show that the OER River basin tends towards drier conditions. An abundance of deficit seasons has been noticed (50 to 63% of the seasons), especially after 1980–1981. | [31] |
Spain | Daily precipitation data were provided by the National Meteorological Agency | Student’s t-test Mann–Kendall test | Annual rainfall had decreased, with values ranging from 0 to 15%, dry periods had increased in length, and the number of rainy days had decreased | [23] |
Mediterranean area | Precipitation data were obtained through NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center for the period 1975–2015 | Mann–Kendall test | Many sites in Mediterranean-climate regions show downward trends in annual precipitation (Spain, Australia, Chile, and Northern Italy); and most of the Mediterranean basin, and Chile showed downward trends in summer precipitation. | [48] |
Western Algeria | Monthly rainfall data from 17 stations (1970–2015) | Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) | Seasonal rainfall showed a decreasing trend in winter and spring, while increasing trend is detected in summer and autumn | [49] |
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Kessabi, R.; Hanchane, M.; Krakauer, N.Y.; Aboubi, I.; El Kassioui, J.; El Khazzan, B. Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Rainfall Trend Analysis through Non-Parametric Tests in the Sebou River Basin (SRB), Northern Morocco. Climate 2022, 10, 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110170
Kessabi R, Hanchane M, Krakauer NY, Aboubi I, El Kassioui J, El Khazzan B. Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Rainfall Trend Analysis through Non-Parametric Tests in the Sebou River Basin (SRB), Northern Morocco. Climate. 2022; 10(11):170. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110170
Chicago/Turabian StyleKessabi, Ridouane, Mohamed Hanchane, Nir Y. Krakauer, Imane Aboubi, Jaafar El Kassioui, and Bouchta El Khazzan. 2022. "Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Rainfall Trend Analysis through Non-Parametric Tests in the Sebou River Basin (SRB), Northern Morocco" Climate 10, no. 11: 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110170