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An Integrated Approach for Detection and Prediction of Greening Situation in a Typical Desert Area in China and Its Human and Climatic Factors Analysis

1
School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China
2
School of Earth, Society, & Environment, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
3
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9(6), 364; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9060364
Received: 20 April 2020 / Revised: 24 May 2020 / Accepted: 30 May 2020 / Published: 2 June 2020
The combined study of vegetation coverage (VC) and land use change provides important scientific guidance for the restoration and protection of arid regions. Taking Hongjian Nur (HJN) Lake in the desert region as a case study, the VC of this area was calculated using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is based on a mixed pixel decomposition method. A grey forecasting model (GM) (1, 1) was used to predict future VC. The driving factors of VC and land use change were analyzed. The results indicate that the average VC of the whole watershed showed a gradual increase from 0.29 to 0.49 during 2000–2017. The prediction results of the GM VC showed that the greening trend is projected to continue until 2027. The area of farmland in the watershed increased significantly and its area was mainly converted from unused land, grassland, and forest. The reason for increased VC may be that the combination of the exploitation of unused land and climate change, which is contrary to the country’s sustainable development goals (SDG; goal 15). Therefore, the particularities of the local ecological environment in China’s desert area needs to be considered in the development of ecological engineering projects. View Full-Text
Keywords: Hongjian Nur; vegetation coverage; land use; remote sensing; climate change Hongjian Nur; vegetation coverage; land use; remote sensing; climate change
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Zhou, L.; Wang, S.; Du, M.; Yang, J.; Zhu, Y.; Wu, J. An Integrated Approach for Detection and Prediction of Greening Situation in a Typical Desert Area in China and Its Human and Climatic Factors Analysis. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 364.

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