Geographic Uncertainty in Multimodal Logistics and Supply Chain Management: A Systematic Literature Review

Geographic uncertainty is an underexplored but increasingly relevant dimension of uncertainty in multimodal logistics and supply chain management. This systematic literature review synthesizes research at the intersection of logistics, supply chain uncertainty, and geography, with particular attention to multimodal freight transportation. Based on a PRISMA-guided search in Scopus and Web of Science, 38 peer-reviewed journal and conference articles were analyzed to examine how geographic uncertainty is conceptualized, modeled, and applied in the literature. This review shows that geographic uncertainty is predominantly represented through network-based structures, especially at the node and arc levels, rather than through continuous spatial representations. Transportation-, transshipment-, and demand-related uncertainty dominate the literature, while environmental and emission-related uncertainty remain comparatively scarce. With respect to the geographic dimension, most studies focus on individual locations and routes, whereas regions, countries, and climate- or policy-relevant spatial units are rarely considered. In addition, many models treat uncertainty homogeneously across space, limiting their ability to capture location-specific patterns. To address these gaps, this paper proposes a conceptual distinction between locational and distance-based geographic uncertainty, grounded in the notion of friction of distance. This review highlights conceptual, methodological, and empirical research gaps and provides a foundation for improved modeling and management of geographic uncertainty in logistics systems.