Friend-Shoring Versus Near-Shoring: A Counterfactual Network Analysis of Differential Impacts on China’s Position in Global Value Chains^†

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This paper systematically evaluates the impact of the United States' "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" strategies on China's factor-intensive industries, with complex network analysis as the core tool. The research offers a novel perspective, solid data foundation, and innovative methodological design, though it still has some shortcomings. The following revisions are recommended.

1.The paper points out that U.S. trade remedies lead to an "increase in topological distance" and a "decline in systemic efficiency" within global production networks, but it does not provide direct quantitative indicators of efficiency. Currently, the analysis primarily relies on changes in centrality metrics, which more reflect node status rather than overall efficiency.

2.The paper uses "Altaisia" as a substitute supply chain set for "friend-shoring," but it does not differentiate the varying substitution capabilities of these economies in specific industries during the model integration process.

3.The heatmaps and box plots in the paper illustrate the distribution of centrality ratios but do not provide any statistical tests to determine the significance of these ratios. The authors are advised to supplement the 95% confidence intervals to enhance the rigor of the conclusions.

Author Response

Please see the attachment. Thank you.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This paper empirically evaluates the structural shocks of U.S. "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" strategies on China’s industrial chains, based on the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output (ADB-MRIO) database. However, there remain several areas for improvement. Specific revision comments are as follows:

1. The specific industries classified as resource-intensive, capital-intensive, and technology-intensive should be clearly defined in the text.
2. Some of the references are outdated and fail to accurately reflect recent academic advancements. It is recommended to update the literature to more recent years.
3. What explains the significantly higher direct impact intensity of the "friend-shoring" strategy on resource-intensive industries compared to capital-intensive or technology-intensive industries? Further analysis should be conducted in light of the practical context.
4. Chinese enterprises have effectively offset the trade diversion pressure arising from "near-shoring" by leveraging Mexico as a transshipment hub to optimize their global distribution networks. Why has this transshipment strategy successfully mitigated the impact of near-shoring, yet failed to produce a similar offsetting effect against friend-shoring? Further elaboration and analysis are recommended.
5. Chinese enterprises are described as adopting a “high-level going global strategy." What is the connotation of this concept? A detailed explanation is advised.
6. The paper adopts the X-index Filtering Algorithm (XIFA) to extract the GIVCBN from the fully connected Global Industrial Value Chain Network (GIVCN), but fails to specify the core parameter settings, the theoretical and empirical basis for threshold selection.
7. The scenario analysis of novel trade remedy tools only sets an extreme scenario of full restriction on China’s intermediate goods re-exports, without setting simulation scenarios with multi-gradient policy intensity, nor conducting parameter sensitivity analysis.
8. The policy implications in the conclusion are relatively general and macro. It is recommended to refine specific, actionable policy recommendations to enhance the practical application value of the research.

Comments on the Quality of English Language

I think the writing is good enough for me. Maybe, more polishing will be better.

Author Response

Please see the attachment. Thank you.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The manuscript offers a timely and well-structured contribution to the analysis of global value chain reconfiguration, addressing the increasingly relevant dynamics of friend-shoring and near-shoring strategies and their implications for China’s industrial positioning. The combination of MRIO data with a network-based analytical framework represents a valuable and innovative approach, and the construction of the Global Industrial Value Chain Backbone Network provides a solid empirical foundation for the analysis. The results are clearly presented and highlight meaningful patterns, particularly regarding heterogeneous effects across industries and the identification of cascade dynamics within production networks. Overall, the paper is convincing and suitable for publication, provided that a few aspects are further refined to improve clarity and strengthen the overall contribution.

In its current form, the manuscript would benefit from a more clearly articulated and focused positioning of its contribution within the existing literature. While the review is comprehensive and demonstrates a good command of the relevant strands of research, the study's novelty could be more explicitly emphasised, particularly in relation to its methodological contribution and the use of counterfactual network simulations. Clarifying more directly how this approach advances prior work on global value chains and supply chain restructuring would help readers better appreciate the study's added value.

The methodological section is robust and technically sound, but at times quite dense. A more intuitive explanation of the core steps underlying network construction and the filtering procedure would improve accessibility, particularly for readers less familiar with complex network analysis. In the same vein, a slightly more explicit link between the selected centrality indicators and their economic interpretation would further strengthen the transparency of the empirical strategy and facilitate the interpretation of the results.

The empirical analysis is one of the paper's strongest elements, and the findings are both coherent and insightful. The identification of a structural compression of China’s role within global production networks and the differentiated impacts across factor-intensive industries are particularly compelling. The discussion could be further enriched by more explicitly connecting these results to broader economic and policy implications, particularly regarding global supply chain resilience, industrial relocation dynamics, and the long-term effects of geopolitically driven reconfiguration processes. Strengthening this interpretative layer would enhance the paper's overall contribution and make it even more impactful.

In conclusion, the manuscript presents a solid and well-executed study that contributes meaningfully to the literature on global production networks and supply chain restructuring. With minor refinements to improve clarity and sharpen the contribution's positioning, the paper would be well-suited for publication.

Author Response

Please see the attachment. Thank you.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This manuscript represents a good revision. The authors have made commendable efforts, and the paper has been significantly improved compared to the previous version.  I recommend it acceptable.

Comments on the Quality of English Language

The revised version seems good.