A Real-Time Early Warning Framework for Multi-Dimensional Driving Risk of Heavy-Duty Trucks Using Trajectory Data

Frequent accidents involving heavy trucks and the inadequacy of existing dynamic monitoring technologies pose significant challenges to accurate early warning risk and safety management. To address these issues, this study proposes a multi-dimensional risk measurement and real-time early warning method for heavy truck driving behavior based on trajectory data. By extracting multi-dimensional trajectory features such as lateral position, speed, and acceleration, quantitative indicators for driving stability and car-following risk were constructed. Integrated with the CRITIC objective weighting method and the K-means++ clustering algorithm, a comprehensive risk measurement model was established to systematically characterize the dynamic evolution of driving behavior, overcoming the limitations of single-dimensional risk analysis. Experimental results based on the CQSkyEyeX trajectory dataset demonstrate that the proposed method categorizes driving behavior into six risk levels. Low-risk behavior accounted for 66.70%, while medium- to high-risk behaviors mainly included serpentine driving (26.69%) and close following (4.18%). High-risk behavior constituted only 0.03%. A multi-strategy real-time warning mechanism was further developed, achieving a warning accuracy of 98.36% with the final-value method, significantly outperforming the mode method (83.62%). The outcomes of this study demonstrate the effectiveness and practical utility of the proposed model for risk identification and early warning. On a practical level, the developed risk classification framework and management strategy establish a quantitative basis for differentiated supervision, enabling a closed-loop management process of “identification–intervention–optimization”. Future work will focus on three key directions: integrating multi-source data, extending the model to other typical operational scenarios, and incorporating advanced machine learning techniques to further enhance its generalization capability and warning accuracy. Overall, this research provides a feasible technical pathway for the precise quantification, dynamic monitoring, and tiered intervention of driving behavior in heavy-duty trucks, thereby contributing to enhanced safety in road freight transportation.