Computational Modelling of Institutional Perceptions in a Civilisational Intergovernmental Organisation

Civilisational intergovernmental organisations occupy a distinctive position in global governance because their legitimacy is shaped by institutional performance, symbolic identity, collective representation, and normative expectation. This study develops a sentiment-driven computational modelling framework for analysing institutional perceptions in a 57-member civilisational intergovernmental organisation. The empirical corpus comprises 30 semi-structured interviews, including 15 expert interviews and 15 general respondent interviews. After preprocessing, removal of administrative material, and exclusion of courtesy-only responses, the final corpus contained 239 answer segments and 42,940 respondent-generated words. The methodology integrates answer-level segmentation, thematic classification, lexical sentiment analysis, transformer-based sentiment modelling, latent semantic clustering, non-parametric statistical testing, bootstrap confidence estimation, and manual validation. The results show that institutional perception is broadly positive but thematically uneven. Experts recorded a mean polarity score of 0.0803, while general respondents recorded 0.1016. However, group-level differences were not statistically significant at segment level, Mann–Whitney $U=6171.50$, $p=0.0704$, or interview level, $U=71.00$, $p=0.0888$. In contrast, sentiment differed significantly across institutional themes, Kruskal–Wallis $H=45.8768$, $p<0.001$, and across latent semantic clusters, with Kruskal–Wallis $H=35.0124$ and $p<0.001$. The strongest positive sentiment appeared in reform and future orientation, mean polarity $=0.1700$, socioeconomic cooperation, $0.1330$, and institutional effectiveness, $0.1325$. The weakest sentiment concerned institutional weakness and constraints, $0.0546$, and political and security role, $0.0693$. Latent semantic clustering identified socioeconomic and economic cooperation as the most positively evaluated cluster, with mean polarity $0.1465$. Overall, the findings reveal a measurable tension between symbolic-developmental legitimacy and operational scepticism.