1. Introduction
Digital transformation in tourism and hospitality is understood as a multi-stage evolution—from Tourism 1.0 to Tourism 5.0—built on four pillars: technological integration, enhanced customer experience, business model innovation and operational optimisation [
1]. This shift represents a holistic reimagining of service provision and recent scholarship characterises digital tourism itself as a multifaceted socio-economic cultural phenomenon requiring novel value co creation strategies [
2]. The adoption and maturity of digitalization vary widely across firms. Organisational factors such as process agility, workforce adaptability and clear digital strategy enable progress, yet micro and small enterprises often lag behind [
3]. Ka et al. [
4] highlight that most such firms remain at early stages of digital maturity across four dimensions; strategy, technology, capabilities and integrated business. Empirical studies of Greek hospitality SMEs echo this unevenness [
5,
6] and note that little research addresses hotels’ internal digitalization processes—digital adoption flows at different speeds and technological priorities remain poorly understood.
At the same time, technological advances and platform innovations—ranging from online travel agencies and sharing-economy platforms to IoT-enabled tools—are reshaping hospitality business models [
7]. While such tools facilitate operational optimisation and personalization, they also expose misalignments between technology investments and organisational capabilities, underscoring the need for structured change management approaches and strategic alignment [
8]. The pandemic-driven adoption of robotics, contactless technologies and AI-powered service has accelerated the shift from high-touch/low-tech to low-touch/high-tech operations, highlighting both the opportunities and the challenges of digital transformation.
Alongside these innovations, big-data analytics has emerged as a central driver of competitive advantage. Integrating big data with marketing strategies can reduce transaction costs, enable hyper-personalization and support real-time decision-making [
9,
10]. Yet hospitality analytics research remains fragmented and often relies on small datasets [
11]. Emerging studies on AI, VR/AR and the Metaverse emphasise technological adoption but seldom link these innovations to measurable service outcomes [
12,
13]. Most empirical research focuses on macro-level indicators—such as adoption trends, platform innovations or user-generated content—while first-party behavioural data (clickstreams, navigation paths and booking-funnel metrics) are rarely explored [
11,
14]. Moreover, studies seldom combine behavioural analytics with simulation modelling techniques, such as fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), to reveal causal pathways between digital touchpoints, managerial actions and customer outcomes [
15]. FCM models concepts as nodes and their causal influences as signed, weighted links, enabling the simulation of how interventions propagate through the system. Consequently, much digital-transformation scholarship stops at describing adoption trends, leaving unexplored how behavioural data flows can be translated into actionable decisions.
Therefore, existing evidence shows that hospitality web-analytics studies emphasise macro-level indicators (e.g., UGC/OTA reviews) and high-level web metrics, with limited use of first-party clickstream data to inform managerial action [
11,
14]. Reviews and bibliometric mappings describe a fragmented evidence base and capability gaps—especially among SMEs—that hinder micro-level analytics in practice [
16,
17]. Few studies combine behavioural logs with simulation/causal modelling; FCM applications remain rare in hospitality despite encouraging results in adjacent management settings [
15,
18,
19].
This study addresses these gaps by examining how luxury hotels can harness first-party behavioural data and integrate them with simulation modelling to support knowledge-based decision-making, real-time customer insight generation and digital service innovation. Grounded in the literature on digital transformation, web analytics and big-data behavioural analysis, the present study develops three research questions: (1) What insights into service design and marketing strategies can luxury hotels derive from first-party behavioural data? (2) How can simulation modelling techniques, such as fuzzy cognitive mapping, be combined with web analytics to translate behavioural insights into strategic knowledge? (3) How does big-data analytics expand the scope of web-behavioural analysis in hospitality? These questions provide the conceptual scaffolding for the subsequent case study and aim to advance theoretical and practical understanding of data-driven transformation.
The relevance of this work arises from the persistent gap between the behavioural evidence generated across hotel digital touchpoints and its systematic use in management. The paper adds value to the literature by elevating micro-level web-behavioural signals from descriptive indicators to explanatory antecedents in digital-transformation accounts and by formalising an evidence-calibrated participatory approach that connects measurement, statistical association, causal modelling and scenario analysis into a coherent learning architecture. Empirically, the tested associations and the calibrated fuzzy cognitive map translate observed patterns into decision-relevant structures, thereby bridging the gap between behaviour and strategy. For researchers, the work offers a replicable analytical pipeline and a conceptual model that can be scrutinised, extended and compared across contexts. For practitioners, the results provide actionable guidance on prioritising a small number of high-leverage interventions and on instituting governance routines—consistent tagging, cross-functional ownership and scheduled re-estimation—that make analytics usable in day-to-day management. For industry stakeholders, the framework clarifies how behavioural evidence can guide resource allocation, strengthen marketing effectiveness and support customer-centred innovation, improving both efficiency and service quality.
3. Methodology
This study utilises a systematic mixed-methods approach to analyse how micro-level digital behaviours on luxury hotel websites might be converted into usable information for service design and management decision-making. The concept combines extensive behavioural analytics with simulation modelling, particularly fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), to connect factual data with management perceptions. The procedure has the following stages: data collecting, behavioural analytics and fcm modelling. This stratified approach enables the research to encompass both the intricate specifics of consumer interactions and the overarching organisational strategies that influence digital service innovation.
The initial phase encompassed data acquisition and sampling. This research is based on a 12-month longitudinal dataset sourced from the corporate websites of five luxury hotels in Mediterranean [
39]. These hotels were intentionally chosen due to their operation in the premium sector, possession of internationally accessible websites with integrated booking systems and substantial digital presence on both websites and social media platforms. This sample technique guaranteed the study included organisations that predominantly utilise digital media for client acquisition and reputation management. Three categories of behavioural data were collected: clickstream records detailing user interactions such as clicks, scrolls and page views; navigation paths illustrating ordered sequences of user journeys through the websites; and social media analytics, abandonment rates at different stages and overall conversion probabilities. Data gathering utilised from semrush [
35] and fanpagekarma [
38].
The final phase of the process encompassed behavioural analytics and simulation modelling. Correlation statistics were initially employed to define baseline metrics of digital performance, including bounce rates, average session duration and booking conversion probabilities. Consequently, regression models have been created. The software SPSS 31.0 have been used. The next stage implemented simulation modelling via fuzzy cognitive mapping [
40]. Behavioural analytics offered statistical correlations, whereas FCM facilitated the incorporation of managerial viewpoints and the modelling of dynamic causal links [
41]. The notions were interconnected by causal arrows with weights varying from strongly negative to strongly positive [
42]. The preliminary maps represented management views, although they were adjusted utilising empirical correlation coefficients from the behavioural dataset to synchronise subjective perceptions with observed evidence [
43]. Upon completion, the FCMs were employed to model scenarios, evaluating the effects of initiatives such as enhancing digital marketing cost optimisation [
44]. The simulations provided insights into immediate consequences, including increased conversion rates, and long-term results, such as repeat reservations and improved loyalty. The FCM analysis was performed utilising Mental Modeller (accessed on 11 August 2025), a software application grounded in fuzzy-logic cognitive mapping that allows researchers to identify system components, establish interrelations and execute scenario-based evaluations. Mental Modeller has been extensively utilised in social science research to assess individual or collective mental models and facilitate decision-making. This study created the FCM model using statistical correlations obtained from daily web analytics data. The correlations measured the relationships between components, ensuring the model accurately represents the observable interactions within the system. The established protocols of Mental Modeller were adhered to for delineating components, articulating the direction and intensity of interactions and conducting scenario assessments, thereby guaranteeing transparency and reproducibility.
Figure 1 illustrates the methodological process.
This study’s methodology enhances research on digital transformation in hospitality by transitioning from macro-level trends to micro-level behavioural indicators [
45]. The integration of big data analytics and simulation modelling guarantees that insights are empirically substantiated and practically applicable, providing a reproducible framework for incorporating behavioural analytics into decision-making and digital service innovation [
46]. The following research hypotheses has been created.
Hypothesis 1 (H1). The “Total Visitors” metric is affected by the “Social Media Traffic” metric and the “Search Traffic” metric.
The purpose of this hypothesis is to determine whether or not the total number of visits to luxury hotel websites is affected by traffic that is generated by search engines as well as traffic that is driven by social media. Previous study in the hospitality industry reveals that combining numerous digital touchpoints, such as search channels and social media platforms, can improve the rate of visitor acquisition and raise the percentage of visitors that engage with organisations [
47].
Hypothesis 2 (H2). The “Social Media Traffic” metric is affected by the “Average Visit Duration” metric and the “Bounce Rate” metric.
The purpose of this hypothesis is to investigate whether or not the level of user engagement on hotel websites, as assessed by the average visit duration and bounce rates, has an effect on the amount of traffic that is driven by social media. A more engaging web experience can lead to an increase in social sharing and traffic deflection from social platforms, according to insights gleaned from data collected from digital behavioural patterns [
48].
Hypothesis 3 (H3). The “Paid Traffic Cost” metric is affected by the “Impressions per Post” metric and the “Follower Growth Rate” metric.
The objective of this hypothesis is to ascertain whether the exposure of social media and the expansion of an audience have an impact on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of marketing efforts using paid advertising. This connection exemplifies how first-party behavioural data may be used to support knowledge-based decisions in the context of digital transformation. These decisions can help optimise marketing spending and enable digital strategies in luxury hotels that are more cost-efficient [
49].
Hypothesis 4 (H4). The “Organic Traffic Cost” metric is affected by the “Paid Keywords” metric and the “Organic Keywords” metric.
In this hypothesis, we investigate whether or not there is a connection between the effectiveness of organic traffic and sponsored and organic search keyword strategies. When it comes to digital transformation, having an awareness of these relationships enables luxury hotels to make use of first-party behavioural data for the purpose of knowledge-based service innovation, incorporating behavioural data into strategic decision-making and strengthening a framework for digital transformation that is driven by data [
50].
6. Theoretical and Practical Recommendations
The results demonstrate that micro-level online behaviour can be incorporated into the explanatory core of digital-transformation theory in hospitality. First-party behavioural signals recorded on hotel websites and social channels—such as search traffic, social-media traffic, average visit duration, bounce rate and keyword portfolios—are statistically associated with key outcomes, including total visitors and traffic costs (H1–H4;
Table 2,
Table 3,
Table 4,
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7,
Table 8 and
Table 9). Treating these variables as antecedent conditions advances theorising beyond macro-level adoption narratives and platform-centred accounts, towards micro-grounded mechanisms that link observable behaviour to strategic results [
2,
3,
4,
5,
11,
14].
A conceptual architecture of knowledge-driven transformation emerges from the empirical pipeline employed in the study. Organisations first collect clearly defined first-party behavioural signals (
Table 1), following established measurement guidance for web analytics and social indicators [
25,
32,
33,
34,
35]. They then estimate associations between those signals and focal outcomes, as in Hypotheses 1 to 4 (
Table 2,
Table 3,
Table 4,
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7,
Table 8 and
Table 9). The strongest relationships are subsequently represented as directional, weighted links within a fuzzy cognitive map, which converts statistical regularities into an explicit causal structure that can be scrutinised by decision-makers (
Figure 3 and
Figure 4). Scenario analysis on this map—illustrated by the visit-growth and cost-optimisation scenarios—identifies a small set of levers with the greatest potential to shift outcomes. Interventions are then implemented and followed by renewed measurement, re-estimation and refinement. This sequence formalises a behaviour-analytics-to-action learning loop in which micro-signals inform causal structure, structure guides scenarios, scenarios guide action and action reshapes subsequent micro-signals. In methodological terms, this addresses long-noted fragmentation in analytics research by providing a prescriptive pathway from measurement to managerial decision [
11].
The calibration of participatory models is central to the theoretical contribution. Fuzzy cognitive mapping becomes more decision-relevant when the inclusion and weighting of links are disciplined by statistically significant coefficients from the association stage. Calibrating the map in this way aligns managerial mental models with regularities in the data and limits the risk of encoding unsupported relationships, strengthening the validity of participatory modelling in organisational settings [
15]. The resulting map functions as a shared, evidence-constrained representation of the digital system: it retains the advantages of stakeholder knowledge while remaining anchored to observed patterns.
The architecture also connects with capability-based explanations of performance. The learning loop links sensing through the systematic measurement of behavioural signals, seizing through scenario-guided choice of levers and reconfiguring through the organisational adjustments that follow observed results. This sequencing is consistent with views of data-driven transformation in which analytical capability underpins competitive outcomes [
22,
31]. The different strengths of evidence reported across the hypotheses provide discipline for theory use. The relationships in Hypothesis 1 and Hypothesis 4 show strong support and warrant central placement in the conceptual account; the relationships in Hypothesis 2 are moderate and should be treated as context-conditional; and the relationships in Hypothesis 3 are weak and should be regarded as exploratory until reinforced by further observation. The very high model fit for Hypothesis 1 also indicates the need for vigilance regarding multicollinearity and small-sample artefacts when elevating associations into theoretical claims. Finally, boundary conditions should be recognised: the model has been developed for luxury hotels with mature digital touchpoints in the Mediterranean region, where measurement practices and channel configurations align with the literature on digitalisation and change management in hospitality [
3,
5,
8,
17].
In sum, the theoretical contribution is twofold. First, micro-level behavioural signals are elevated from descriptive indicators to explanatory antecedents within digital-transformation theory, responding to calls for micro-grounded evidence in hospitality analytics [
11,
14]. Second, an evidence-calibrated participatory approach is formalised that links measurement, association, causal modelling, scenario analysis and organisational adjustment into a single learning architecture [
15,
22].
From a practical viewpoint, the empirical associations and scenario analyses support a set of practical directions that translate the findings into implementable action in luxury hospitality. The associations supporting Hypothesis 1 indicate that growth in total visitors is closely linked to search traffic and social-media traffic (
Table 2 and
Table 3). In practice, this points to sustained investment in content that broadens organic keyword coverage, reinforcement of internal linking and careful alignment between off-site messages and the content of on-site landing pages so that expectations set on external platforms are fulfilled on arrival [
26,
27,
32,
33,
34]. Campaigns should be tagged and attributed consistently to ensure that changes in visitor volume are accurately traced to search and social initiatives [
32,
33,
34]. These actions are consistent with digital-transformation work that emphasises coordinated channel strategies and process alignment in hospitality [
3,
5,
17].
The relationships in Hypothesis 2 show that increases in social-origin visits often coincide with shorter sessions and higher bounce unless the on-site experience matches the promise of the referral (
Table 4 and
Table 5). An immediate operational response is to improve continuity between off-site messages and on-site content, to segment follow-up communication by the depth of a visitor’s first session and to introduce unobtrusive prompts on high-traffic landing pages that invite deeper exploration without interrupting tasks. This interpretation aligns with known limitations and ambiguities in industry metrics and supports the use of behavioural signals as diagnostics for design changes [
25]. It also resonates with studies that link digital-experience design to guest engagement in hospitality [
13].
Evidence for Hypothesis 3 is weak (
Table 6 and
Table 7). As a result, initiatives intended to manage paid-traffic cost should proceed as structured experiments rather than as large-scale campaigns. Explicit cost ceilings should be set, creative variants should be compared on qualified click quality rather than impressions alone and model re-estimation should occur on a regular schedule so that levers that remain statistically weak are retired promptly. This cautious stance is consistent with change-management perspectives that advocate staged testing and governance during technology-enabled transformation [
8]. Consistent with the exploratory nature of this investigation, data exhibiting diminished explanatory power (e.g., H2 and H3, both with low
R2 values) are interpreted with caution. These findings indicate potential trends that require further exploration rather than conclusive outcomes.
The relationships supporting Hypothesis 4 indicate that the composition of paid and organic keyword portfolios is closely related to the cost of organic traffic (
Table 8 and
Table 9). This supports a periodic audit of cannibalisation between paid and organic search. Paid investment can be reduced or paused where organic positions are strong and stable, while brand-defence and seasonal terms are maintained through paid search. Savings can be reinvested in content that widens organic coverage. These steps follow established guidance for search measurement and portfolio management in practice [
32,
33,
34] and correspond to competency-based recommendations for aligning marketing processes with analytical evidence in hospitality [
31].
The two scenarios developed on the fuzzy cognitive map provide a disciplined way to choose and sequence interventions. In the visit-growth scenario, the map highlights which levers—such as expansion of organic keywords, improvements in content visibility and growth of the social audience—most efficiently increase visits in the studied context (
Figure 3). In the cost-optimisation scenario, the map helps to structure reductions in paid exposure while reinforcing organic reach and follower growth, ensuring that cost savings are not achieved at the expense of visibility (
Figure 4). In both cases, a small number of levers should be implemented at a time, effects should be tracked using the key indicators that underpinned the associations, and the map should be refreshed on a defined cadence. This approach is consistent with participatory-modelling practice in decision settings where stakeholder knowledge and empirical regularities must be reconciled [
15].
A pragmatic roll-out follows. In an initial phase, measurement hygiene is established, definitions of goals are harmonised and a small set of landing-page improvements is deployed on the most frequent social entry points [
25,
32,
33,
34,
35]. During a second phase, the visit-growth levers identified by scenario analysis are implemented and monitored with attention to pre-defined indicators of success (H1–H2;
Table 2,
Table 3,
Table 4 and
Table 5;
Figure 3). During a third phase, the cost-optimisation scenario is executed by pruning low-yield paid terms and reallocating investment towards organic initiatives where this is safe to do (H4;
Table 8 and
Table 9;
Figure 4). Throughout these phases, responsibilities for indicators and actions are assigned across functions, documentation is maintained for each change and the association models and the cognitive map are re-estimated on a regular schedule to sustain the learning loop. These governance and capability prerequisites accord with work that links digital competencies, organisational alignment and performance in hospitality [
8,
22,
31].
Taken together, these directions convert the reported relationships and scenarios into a repeatable management routine. Consistent measurement and attribution are followed by estimation and interpretation, the strongest relationships are translated into a calibrated cognitive map, scenario analysis is used to select a small set of high-leverage actions, interventions are implemented and documented and the system returns to the data to learn and adjust. In this way, the outcomes are bridged to real-world implementation in a manner that benefits researchers—who gain a prescriptive architecture that can be tested and refined—and practitioners—who gain a disciplined path from behavioural evidence to strategic action [
11,
13,
15,
22,
31,
32,
33,
34,
35].
7. Conclusions
This study set out to address a critical gap in hospitality research: the limited understanding of how micro-level, first-party web-behavioural data—such as clickstreams, navigation paths and booking-funnel metrics—can be transformed into strategic knowledge for luxury hotel decision-making. While the literature on digital transformation is extensive, it remains heavily weighted toward macro-level adoption trends, platform innovations and user-generated content [
5,
11]. Few studies examine first-party behavioural data in hospitality contexts, and even fewer integrate these with simulation modelling techniques such as fuzzy cognitive mapping [
15].
This study developed three research questions to address this gap. Research Question 1 asked what insights into service design and marketing strategies luxury hotels can derive from first-party behavioural data. Through correlation and regression analyses, the study identified key relationships—such as positive associations between social-media traffic, search visibility and total website visits and between session duration, bounce rate and social-media visibility—that highlight friction points and opportunities along the digital customer journey. These insights enabled hotels to redesign booking processes, tailor marketing messages and improve conversion rates, moving beyond descriptive adoption metrics to prescriptive, behaviour-driven strategies.
Research Question 2 asked how simulation modelling techniques, particularly fuzzy cognitive mapping, can be combined with web analytics to translate behavioural insights into strategic knowledge. The integration of FCM with quantitative datasets allowed managers to visualise causal relationships between website features, guest perceptions and booking outcomes, bridging quantitative evidence with qualitative managerial perspectives and ensuring strategic alignment [
15].
Research Question 3 explored ways to operationalize integrated behavioural analytics and simulation modelling to enable agile, knowledge-based decision-making and drive digital service innovation. The study found that embedding analytics dashboards into daily operations, supported by high digital maturity and cross-departmental collaboration, transformed raw behavioural data into continuous cycles of service innovation. Scenario analyses using FCM demonstrated how targeted adjustments—such as optimising keyword strategies or balancing paid and organic traffic—can reduce marketing costs while enhancing customer engagement, illustrating the practical value of knowledge-driven resource allocation.